A while back, I released the methods and background on Luck. With the 2011 season over, final values can be calculated. Today I am going to look at some players with over over 500 PA in 2011.
Note: I have gone ahead and made the results available from the last 3 years for hitters (> 50 PA) and pitchers (> 25)
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In two leagues I am in, there has been some complaining of teams streaming starting pitchers this last week of the season. Streaming is using as many starting pitchers as you can to try to accumulate as many counting stats as possible (Wins and Ks). It is a method to make up make up quite of bit of ground quickly, with little draw back.
Is Streaming Wrong?
There is nothing wrong with streaming, if the leagues rules were to allow it. It could be done by any owner during the season. It usually comes to the fore front at the end of the season for a couple of reasons. First, owners are able to dump starters that are done for the season. These pitchers have no value in the 2011 season. Dumping these pitchers is especially done in single season leagues. In keeper leagues, the dumped pitchers can be picked up for next year, so streaming is limited.
Alex Avila has been one the great surprises of 2011. Coming into 2011, his full time job as the Tiger’s catcher was in doubt after they signed Victor Martinez. Alex jumped out to a hot start and finished as one of the top catchers in the league in 2011. Looking forward to 2012, his fantasy value looks to be changing.
Here at Rotographs, it is brought up quite often that a player’s xBABIP and BABIP don’t agree. With the help of slash12, I have created a quick and easy method of calculating a hitter’s xBABIP. I have a downloadable spreadsheet that takes the batted ball data and calculates a xBABIP.
John Mayberry started the season in AAA for the Phillies and eventually got the call to the majors. He has been a pleasant surprise by hitting 15 home runs in only 275 PA. He had shown power in the past, but a large K% was limiting his HR and AVG production. Read the rest of this entry »
This previous off season, Cameron Maybin was traded from the Marlins to the Padres for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. Before that trade, he was traded from the Tigers to the Marlins as part of the the Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera trade. He is now having an outstanding season with the Padres by generating 4.3 WAR (only 2.2 WAR previously in his entire career). He has been a nice source of steals (38) and Runs (79) this season. If his cards fall right next season, he should see similar or better numbers. Read the rest of this entry »
I have several projects to complete this off season to help fantasy owners for the 2012 season. Please let me know if there are any other ideas you would like me to examine over the off season. If I can’t get to the subject, others may be able look into the issue.
Fantasy “WAR”
Every player has factors that they can and can not control that factor into their stats. Pitchers can control the number of strikeouts and walks they allow, but they have little control over run support and defense. I want to get a player ranking system that shows the player’s true talent: contact, speed, and power. Then add in the factures they have no control over like the batters around them (more RBI and Run opportunites) and position in a lineup (more SB and Runs from the lead off spot).
The process will take a few weeks, but it should help an owner understand where the player gets their fantasy value and which surrounding changes affect the player.
Positional Rankings
Once the Fantasy “WAR”, or whatever it ends up being called, has been finalized, I will come up with a systematic way of ranking the players using talent, health, batting position and surrounding team talent. It will not be like what ZIPs does on Fangraphs where they guesstimate the final season stats. Instead, the values will constantly project the player’s talent using several factors.
Injury Information
Finding out how a player performs after an injury is important information. I am in the middle of examining pitchers coming back from TJS, so this information will be made public soon. Also, I will look into back injuries. They seem to really take a player off their game and seem to linger for a while. Let me know if there is any other specific injuries that you would like to see looked at.
Draft Rankings
I will be keeping my pre season overall rankings in a Google Doc with information and links on each player. It will be only the players I have examined in articles or otherwise. As I examine more and more players, the list will grow. I prefer to have a good understanding of a player than a vague notion from every player.
Reader Requests
Let me know what you want to see. It is a long off season, so I will be hurting for topics. Do you have keeper league questions? Ranking a few players? Draft strategy? Now is the time to let me know how I can help you answer any questions you have bouncing around. If I can’t find an answer, one of the other writers may certainly be able to find it.
Josh Tomlin (Elbow – 33.5% owned) – Josh is schedule to start on September 24th. It will be the 26 year old’s first start since August 24th.
Josh’s season started out hot with an ERA of 2.74 and a record of 6-2 after 10 starts. His K/BB ratio of 3.4:1 was decent, but a 0.197 BABIP was driving his stats. In the next 16 starts, he went 6-5 with a 5.24 ERA, even though his K/BB ratio jumped to 5:1. The main reason his ERA jumped was that his BABIP was 0.288.
The game on the 24th looks to be a nice chance to sneak in a win since Tomlin is facing the Twins anemic offense. It will probably be his only start of the season unless he pitches the last game of the season on the 28th. The game is a time to spot start him for an owner in a tight Wins race or an owner plague by starters being shut down for the season.
Joel Peralta (17.8% owned) and Kyle Farnsworth (elbow – 72.5% owned) – Kyle has not closed, or even thrown in a game, since September 10th. He has been shut down with elbow discomfort. He plans on returning soon, but the exact date is not known. In the meantime, Joel Peralta has been getting the Save opportunities for the Rays (a save on Saturday and Sunday).
Joel has pitched decently this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.28:1 K/BB ratio. Unless an owner was in a Holds league (18 holds in 2011), there is little reason to own him until now. He could be the boost an owner needs to move up a spot or two in the Saves category. The Rays are still fighting for a playoff spot and with over half of their games against the Yankees, the games should be close with plenty of save opportunities.
Watch the headlines for news of Farnsworth returning to his closer role. Until then, enjoy the few saves that can be squeezed out of Peralta.
Scott Baker (Elbow – 19.0% owned) and Jonathan Sanchez (Ankle – 35.6% owned) – Both look to return this season, but will be limited to bullpen use only. Owners planning on starts from them will need to look else where.
Johan Santana (Shoulder – 8.6% owned) – He will not be coming back this season.
Casey Kotchman has been a nice surprise for the Rays this season by generating 2.4 WAR. The Rays have gotten little production from the 1B in recent years. Even with his breakout/comeback this season, he should get little consideration when creating a roster next season. Read the rest of this entry »
When the season is over, it is not the time to ignore a keeper team until next spring. With a few post season chores, an owner can put themselves in better position for next season.
The first item is to find players that owners may covet this up coming season, but were useless this past season. They could have been injured or in the minors. I previously looked at players on the DL that can be picked up as potential keepers for next season (more suggestions in the comments).
The second group of players to target are minor league prospects. Some owners irrationally love them. Use them when making trades with these owners. A few sources released mid season prospect lists to give an idea of what prospects may be the most desirable. Besides using prospect lists, look to the rosters of the Arizona Fall League for inspiration. After the World Series is over, it will be the only baseball going on, so it will get plenty of coverage. A few players will start to get over hyped.
If you are torn between 2 prospects, follow these two rules:
1. Take the hitter. On average, they are more valuable in the long run.
2. Take the player closer to the majors. An owner wants the player to play. They are not wanting someone to look pretty on the bench.
After targeting a few players, it is time to bump the dead weight off your team. These players will not be keepers on any team and are usually non-save relievers and bench players. They were kept to make sure pitching and hitting slots were full during the season, but they are useless now. No one is going to trade for or keep them with dozens of similar players available on the waiver wire. Start filling your roster with some possible trade targets and dump this dead weight.
Next, create a spreadsheet of the players on all the teams. It will take a bit of time, but it is well worth the effort. Go through and designate what you think each team should keep. I begin ranking, linking articles or just jotting a few personal notes on certain players. An owner should then have a good idea of players available in the draft and which owners have an abundance or lack of players you desire. An owner can then begin to target other owners with their roster needs and wants.
After that, post and/or email the type of players you are looking to pick up. Don’t get too specific now, just something like, “I am looking to move SP for IF help”. I wouldn’t push too hard to make trades now since owners are tired after the long season. Owners know you are willing to trade and know your wants. They can contact you once they look at their rosters later.
Finally, check up on your league 2 to 3 times a week during the off season. The main item to look for are players being dump to the waiver wire that are better than the ones on your team. Pick them up. Also, teams may be posting messages of players they are looking to trade. The league doesn’t need to be check every day, but don’t be a stranger.
The season has ended and it is time to take a break from your keeper league. Just spending a hour or two after the season is over will pay dividends later. Around the winter meetings, action will pick up again. Until then, know that your team is in good shape to improve for next season.
