Mike Aviles played in 136 games for the Red Sox in 2012, mainly at short stop. This off season, Aviles has been on the move. First, he was traded to the Blue Jays. Two weeks after that trade, the Blue Jays traded him to the Indians. Aviles should be an OK middle infielder in deep and AL only leagues depending on if he can get on the field.
Alcides Escobar exceeded expectations in 2012 by hitting almost .300 and had 35 steals. In Zach Sander’s end of season SS rankings, Escobar ended up with the 10th highest rating. Going into 2013, he is primed to repeat 2012.
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Ervin Santana and cash from the Angels for minor-leaguer Brandon Sisk. Our own Dave Cameron extensively covered the deal from the real world perspective. The change in scenery does look to change Santana’s value for the worse, but regressing back to the his previous production level will be the main key for his fantasy value going forward.
Expectations were pretty low for Pedro Alvarez coming into 2012. He had the pedigree of being the second overall draft pick in the 2008 draft, but he only hit four home runs (HR) and struck out (K%) over 30% of the time in 2011 bringing his stock way down. He was able to re-find find his power stroke in 2012 and it gave him some fantasy value.
Fantasy owners hoped Mike Moustakas would breakout in 2012 after a disappointing rookie season in 2011. For a few months it looked like the breakout would happen as he hit .268 AVG with 15 home runs in the first half of the season. In the second half, the production dropped as he barely hit over .200 with only 5 HRs. In 2013, his talent level will be tough to predict due to his up and down production.
In Mike’s short career, he looks to have three distinct “seasons” — 2011 and the first and the second halves of 2012.
| HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | |
| 2011 | 5 | 6.0% | 14.0% | 0.263 | 0.309 | 0.367 | 0.296 |
| 1st Half | 15 | 7.0% | 19.3% | 0.268 | 0.327 | 0.490 | 0.293 |
| 2nd Half | 5 | 5.6% | 21.3% | 0.211 | 0.261 | 0.325 | 0.252 |
Martin Prado’s hitting bounced back nicely after being affected by a staph infection in 2011. Hitting .300 with double digit HRs should have been expected in 2012. The biggest surprise with him was the 17 SB after only getting 13 total in his 6 previous seasons. The totals put him as the 9th highest rated 2B in Zach Sanders’ 2B End of Year Projections. His 2013 production could be similar to 2012 levels. Maybe. Probably not.
Fantasy owners hoped for a bounce back in 2012 after Kelly Johnson regressed in 2011 after a superb 2010 season. A second baseman with 16 HRs and 14 SBs normally would have a relatively high fantasy ranking. Johson was only able to hit .225 and therefor was ranked 24th overall in Zach Sander’s postseason 2B rankings. Kelly Johnson may bounce back in a in 2013, but age is beginning to catch up with him.
Chris Davis was the bane of my fantasy teams for a couple of years. After breaking out in 2008 with 17 home runs in 80 games, he was my ace-in-the-hole of draft/auction day. The results were horrible. Once I finally swore to never pick him up again, he had a comeback season with the Orioles. With such an uneven past, it will be tough to get a read on his potential 2013 season.
The fantasy value of Chris Davis lives of the edge of relevancy because of three traits, a high number strikeouts, good power and a high BABIP. In some seasons, one or more of these traits destroyed his value. In his first season (2008), none were an issue and he thrived. In 2009, the strikeout rate jumped and his batting average plummeted. In 2010, both his power and BABIP dropped. In 2011 his power was down. Finally in 2012, all three aligned again and he had a decent season. I am going to look into each of these three areas and see what benchmarks he needs to reach category for a repeat of 2012.
Kendrys Morales completed his first full season since fracturing his tibia in late May 2010. His injuries were not an issue in 2012, but his playing time was limited because he shared time at 1B and DH with Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Morales current talent level is a bit uncertain and his playing time is even more up in the air.
For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.
Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3
What I said then:
It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.
And now:
Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.
Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18
What I said then:
Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.
And now:
Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.
ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132
Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft
His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.
The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.
Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23
What I said then:
Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.
And now:
All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.
Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23
What I said then:
Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.
And now:
Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1
The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.
What I said then:
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.
And now:
BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245
Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft
Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.
Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30
What I said then:
After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.
And now:
He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.
Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283
He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.
What I said then:
I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.
And now:
Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.
Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2
What I said then:
While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.
And now:
His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.
What I said then:
Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.
And now:
2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280
Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.
