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Mining the News (3/18/26)


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• While this blurb is directly about Seiya Suzuki, it points out that players can cut their IL stint from 10 to seven days if they don’t play in the last three Spring Training games. If a guy is not playing in a regular Spring Training game this upcoming weekend (back fields appearances don’t count), they may be headed to the IL, with a chance to be back in seven rather than 10 games.

The big question for the Cubs right now, in relation to both the WBC and the regular season, is whether Seiya Suzuki’s PCL sprain will prevent him from being available on Opening Day. The Cubs will see how Suzuki feels by the end of this weekend, and then make a decision on whether it’s an Injured List situation or not. The timing there matters, as an IL stint can be backdated by up to three days. In other words, the Cubs will want to know by this weekend whether they want to put Suzuki into the final few Cactus League games to ramp him up, or whether they need to hold him out so that they can backdate the maximum three days (and thus turn his 10-day minimum IL stint, effectively, into a 7-day minimum IL stint). Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Zimmerman’s Tout Wars Mixed Auction Recap


John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

This past weekend, I participated in the Tout Wars mixed auction. I’ve been in the league for about a decade and have won the league a couple of times. Previously, when I won the league, I used a value approach, but over the last few years, the league winners have leaned stars and scrubs. After some middling performances, I needed to find a way to get back to the top. I decided to lean into the league’s tendencies and rules to get ahead.

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Mining the News (3/16/26)

Eric Canha-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

Alek Manoah is still in the mix to make the rotation, with Jack Kochanowicz and George Klassen also being considered.

Manoah still remains the favorite, but right-hander Jack Kochanowicz has pitched well with a 2.08 ERA with one walk in 8 2/3 innings this spring to make himself a candidate for the fifth starter role, while No. 5 prospect George Klassen has also excelled with a 2.25 ERA and nine strikeouts in eight innings.

“He’s still definitely in the mix,” manager Kurt Suzuki said of Manoah. “We haven’t decided on anything. There’s a lot of guys still going, still pitching.”

Manoah still remains the favorite, but right-hander Jack Kochanowicz has pitched well with a 2.08 ERA with one walk in 8 2/3 innings this spring to make himself a candidate for the fifth starter role, while No. 5 prospect George Klassen has also excelled with a 2.25 ERA and nine strikeouts in eight innings.

“He’s still definitely in the mix,” manager Kurt Suzuki said of Manoah. “We haven’t decided on anything. There’s a lot of guys still going, still pitching.”

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Mining the News (3/10/26)


Brad Mills-Imagn Images

American League

Guardians

Joey Cantillo hopes to upgrade his slider.

“My slider has been pretty dog-water the last couple of years,” Cantillo said. “Honestly, it’s been bad. It’s been something we’ve just kind of hoped to throw in the zone, and it’s been a pitch where you really have to throw it to a great location for me to have the results that I want with it.”

Cantillo is coming off a 2025 season in which he logged a 3.21 ERA over 34 appearances (including 13 starts). Heading into a key spring in which he is competing for a spot in the Guardians’ rotation, he honed in on upgrading his slider to not only make it a more viable option for him in ‘26, but to hopefully make his other, stronger offerings even more effective.

The result? Cantillo made a slight grip adjustment that he and the Guardians hope will pay dividends this season, as the 26-year-old looks to make the next step in his evolution as a big league starting pitcher.

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Mining the News (3/6/26)


Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

 

• An interesting quote on how catchers might be graded on how well they challenge with ABS.

Within that, the Twins are among many teams giving catchers vastly more leeway than pitchers to challenge borderline calls, with hitters likely falling somewhere in between. That’s backed by minor-league data, in addition to a general sense that the emotional bias of pitchers clouds their objectivity.

For years, there’s been lots of talk about the ABS system reducing the value of catchers by making pitch framing a less essential skill, but I’m becoming increasingly convinced the opposite is true. Catchers who master the art of ABS challenges could have a bigger impact than ever. It will change games.

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Comparing Spring Training & Regular Season Fastball Velocity


David Frerker-Imagn Images

In a recent article, I wanted to show the average fastball velocity increase from Spring Training to the regular season. I went to Mike Fast’s classic article, “Spinning Yarn: Do Spring Speeds Matter?” at Baseball Prospectus, and noticed it was 15 years old. In the article, he found a 0.6 mph increase from Spring Training to the regular season. As much as I trust Mike’s work, it’s time for an update. After looking at the numbers, the velocity difference has shrunk to almost zero.

To find the change, I took the available Spring Training fastball velocities from the past three seasons for both sinkers and four-seamers. Then I calculated the average and median differences, along with the standard deviation. Additionally, it seems like relievers are down more than starters (>=50% GS/G in regular season) in Spring Training, so I split them up.

That’s pretty much it, so here are the results.

Fastball Velocity Increase from Spring Training to the Regular Season
Pitch (Role) Average Median SD 1 SD (68% chance) 2 SD (95%) 3 SD (99%)
FF (All) 0.26 0.22 0.94 -0.7 to 1.2 -1.4 to 2.4 -2.0 ti 3.6
FF (SP) 0.08 0.07 0.87 -0.8 to 0.9 -1.6 to 1.9 -2.4 to 2.8
FF (RP) 0.37 0.34 0.96 -0.6 to 1.3 -1.2 to 2.7 -1.8 to 4.0
SI (All) 0.18 0.13 0.89 -0.7 to 1.1 -1.4 to 2.1 -2.1 to 3.2
SI (SP) 0.01 0.01 0.81 -0.8 to 0.8 -1.6 to 1.7 -2.4 to 2.5
SI (RP) 0.29 0.24 0.92 -0.6 to 1.2 -1.3 to 2.4 -1.9 to 3.6
2023 to 2025

The overall increase is cut in half from the original study, with starters seeing almost no increase … on average. All the standard deviations approach 1 mph, so there can be some major differences from one pitcher to the next. I included the velocity ranges for different standard deviations. In the best-case scenarios (3 SD), starters gain about 2.5 mph while relievers are adding 4 mph.

With that knowledge, feel free to navigate our player pages to see who is up and who is down. And for me, it’s back to Mining the News.


Jeff Zimmerman’s 2026 Bold Predictions


Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

For all the rankings mentioned in those bold takes, I will use our 12 end-of-season fantasy values from the Auction Calculator.

1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.

Last season, the Nationals limited Wood’s plate appearances later in the season (average 105 PA in the first three months, 94 PA over the last three). Even with the throttling of playing time, Wood missed tying the total by just two strikeouts.

Single-Season Strikeout Leaders
Name Year Total
Mark Reynolds 2009 223
Adam Dunn 2012 222
James Wood 2025 221
Chris Davis 2016 219
Elly De La Cruz 2024 218
Yoán Moncada 2018 217
Kyle Schwarber 2023 215
Eugenio Suárez 2023 214
Joey Gallo 2021 213
Chris Carter 2013 212

It’s time the team lets him have the crown he deserves. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/2/26)


Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

Mike Trout is feeling better and wants to run fast.

Mike Trout wants to let you know he’s aiming to reach 30 feet per second, which is considered an elite sprint speed by Statcast.

Trout showed that he still has plenty of speed on Saturday, when he reached 29.9 feet per second trying to beat out an infield single against the D-backs. It was Trout’s fastest sprint speed since he first sustained his meniscus tear in his left knee in late April 2024, which he believes is a good sign.

For context, Trout, 34, averaged 27.9 feet per second last year, which ranked in the 62nd percentile and his fastest sprint speed was 29.7 feet per second. It was a drop off for Trout, who averaged 29.5 feet per second in ’23 (96th percentile) and 28.9 in ’24 (90th percentile) and regularly hit 30 feet per second.

But the drop was due to his issues with his left knee, as he tore his meniscus twice and had surgery twice in ’24. He returned last season but sustained a bone bruise in his left knee on April 30 when he stepped awkwardly on the first-base bag in Seattle. His fastest sprint speed of the season also came on that play. He returned May 30 but his speed wasn’t at his usual level.

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Mining the News (2/27/26)

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American League

Angels

Robert Stephenson hopes he can manage his thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms.

RHP Robert Stephenson
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
Expected return: 2026
Status: Dealt with a nerve issue and thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms in the offseason after ending last year on the injured list, but believes he can manage it. Has been throwing bullpens with no issues this spring and said on Feb. 23 he expects to be ready for Opening Day.

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Mining the News (2/24/26)


Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

• A solid article from Pitcher List on hitters who will add a new position.

American League

Astros

• The team wants Mike Burrows to throw his sinker and changeup more.

Burrows relied mostly on four pitches last year — four-seamer, changeup, slider and curveball — but the Astros are hoping he can throw his sinking two-seamer more and give him a weapon to right-handers, similar to what Hunter Brown did in 2024. Burrows threw the pitch just 5.6% of the time last season.

“We think it could be really even more effective to right-handers,” Brown said. “He’s got the good changeup. We’ll have him throw his changeup more to righties too at times. So there’s some things that we thought that we could do with him that could even get him to take another step forward.”

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