Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be a divisive player in drafts. First, he’s way better in Roto using batting average with the extra emphasis on stolen bases and no downgrade for a sub-300 OBP. He has the potential to be a platoon bat(career .769 OPS vs RHP, .591 OPS vs LHP), but his elite defense will keep him on the field. Running some comps, they point to a career similar to Javier Báez and Rougned Odor.

Brent Rooker is no longer an enigma; he’s a steady source of 30 HR or more with 180 Runs+RBI. This past season, he seems to have traded off a hit of power (91.9 avgEV to 90.7) for more contact (68% Contact% to 72%). He even throws in a half dozen stolen bases.

Which James Wood will show up this season? The one who hit 24 HR with a .915 OPS in the first half or the one with just 7 HR and a .690 OPS (39% K%) in the second half. I dug and could not find why his Contact% dropped from 72% to 65%. Think of the hype if the halves were switched. Wood’s bat speed and the subsequent batted balls are comparable to the league’s best hitters. Depending on his Contact%, his range of outcomes could be a 50 HR hitter or a frustration who will dominate for a few weeks but be a drag for the rest of the season (see Oneil Cruz).

After three straight seasons of 30+ home runs, Yordan Alvarez’s injured ankle caused him to miss most of last season. I’m worried it’s not 100% healthy, since the team says he will be the primary DH. Besides the injury, his home run per flyball rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons (25% to 21% to 16% to 10%). High risk play. Note: Could be Util-only in league with a 20-game minimum.

Jackson Chourio has almost the exact same stats over the last two seasons, down to the seven caught stealings, four triples, and three hit-by-pitches. Some growth should be expected from the 21-year-old, but how much and when are the keys. One issue is that he might be slowing down with a 0.5 ft/s loss in Sprint Speed and only six stolen base attempts in the second half compared to 22 in the first half. In 2024, he was the 40th overall player and 59th last year, according to our player rater. That’s a nice floor. The key will be if he can improve on the 20 HR power AND continue to steal bases.

The arrows are heading in all directions with Wyatt Langford. He improved his power (43% HardHit% to 48%), but his contact rate got worse (80% Contact% to 76%). He stole more bases (19 SB to 22) with a slower Sprint Speed (29.8 ft/s to 28.9). Additionally, he missed time twice for oblique injuries while playing through them before taking time off. He quit running as much in the second half (15 SB vs 7), and maybe he didn’t want to re-injure the oblique. It’s tough to evaluate him with so many moving parts. The 24-year-old will be useful, but the way and amount are still up in the air.

Byron Buxton finally stayed “healthy” (126 games, highest since 2017) and posted the season everyone hoped he could (35 HR, 24 SB, .264 AVG). Besides health, there was no real skill improvement or degradation.

Jarren Duran regressed a bit after a career year in 2024, but still hit 24 HR with 24 SB. I’m not sure there is another gear for the 29-year-old. He seemed to sell out for power, with his average exit velocity up 1 mph and his average launch angle up 2.5 degrees. At the same time, his Contact% dropped over 4% points.

The projections love Michael Harris II as a 20/20 talent with a positive batting average. Those projections are of no help to the fantasy managers who started the 24-year-old when he hit .210/.234/.317 with 6 HR in the first half last season. Around the All-Star game, he changed his swing and hit .299/.315/.530 in the second half. One factor keeping his fantasy value down is that he’ll be hitting at the bottom of the Braves lineup, thereby suppressing his plate appearances.

Christian Yelich hit over 20 HR (29) for the first time since 2019. At 34-years-old, no one seems to be buying a breakout with a full season, career high 26% K%, and career-low 90.2 mph Average Exit Velocity. Besides not hitting the ball as hard, his 2 degree Launch Angle was the lowest since his rookie season. Note: He might only be Utility-only in leagues that require 20 games for a position.

Kyle Schwarber knocks the crap out of the ball. Since the shift was banned, he’s been posting better batting averages, removing his one weakness.

Cody Bellinger raised his launch angle and hit for more power, leading to a six-year high of 29 HR. The problem is that he’s had similar power strokes, and they’ve quickly disappeared. Additionally, last season was the first time he accumulated over 600 PA since 2019. With such variance, pay for the projection, knowing the results are hopefully better but could be way worse.

After a career-best season, George Springer is hoping for a repeat, and if so, it would be a historic first.

Usually, top prospects get all the love, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Roman Anthony going after pick 50. While he only hit 8 HR in just over 300 PA, signs point to elite power. He led the league with a 60% HardHit%. He was fifth in the league with a 94.5% avgEV. He hit 27 Barrels, but only 8 of them went for HR (normally 1 HR for every two Barrels). The 21-year-old’s only weakness was a 28% K%.Upside of 30 HR.

After being a speed-only option in his first two seasons, Maikel Garcia hit 16 HR in 2025. He didn’t hit the ball harder, but he started elevating (6 deg to 10 deg LA, 49% GB% to 43% GB%) and pulling (33% Pull% to 39% Pull%) the ball more. Hopefully, he keeps or improves on those gains. In most leagues, he will only qualify at third base.

The last memory of Andy Pages is of his post-season struggles (.078 AVG) and benching. I examined similar players and found that a horrible postseason doesn’t affect the hitter’s next season’s production (article coming later this week). The market disagrees on his projection (.255 AVG, 25 HR, 10 SB), so take the discount and roster away.

Steven Kwan is a consistent source of batting average and steals with at least double-digit home runs.

After a breakout 2024 campaign, Lawrence Butler took a step back, likely because of a couple of knee injuries, one chronic. Additionally, he started getting platooned to end the season. Mute expectations because his talent and playing time could be at risk.

Seiya Suzuki’s power took a step forward with 35 HR being a possible outcome if he can stay on the field. The rest of his profile shows no signs of aging.

Jose Altuve posted a career-low (excluding 2020) batting average (.262 AVG) along with his lowest stolen base total in four years (10 SB). He posted nearly the same line in three of the past four seasons. I expect the same or worse results as he ages.

While his surface stats don’t show it, Ceddanne Rafaela took a major step forward in 2025.

Boring, old Brandon Nimmo has shown no signs of slowing down, and the change in home park could boost his production.

While Ian Happ’s hitting skills should repeat, his stolen base skills are deteriorating, and 5 SB might be his upside.

Heliot Ramos has settled into 20 HR to 25 HR with a half dozen stolen bases and a .260 AVG. He was able to post a career-low 23% K% to help keep his batting average up. Otherwise, he hasn’t changed, and he become a consistent productive player.

The 2025 season was a turbulent season for Brenton Doyle on and off the field. I’m going to give him a mulligan and rewind to his 2025 projections.

Daylen Lile may not have one standout trait, but he doesn’t seem to have a weakness besides being on the Nationals. Projections have him around a 15/15 guy with a .270 AVG (Jeremy Pena/Otto Lopez production, but 100 picks later). He ended the season hitting cleanup and sat against just one of the last seven lefties the team faced. Nice sleeper.

Over his first three seasons, Noelvi Marte showed several different versions of himself, with any narrative having an explanation. His value is tough to set beyond a basic projection.

If Ramón Laureano can keep the contact and power gains he made in 2025 while playing a full season, he becomes a solid sleeper

TJ Friedl is a high-variance play in home runs and stolen bases. When looking at his projections, I would take the over in home runs and the under in stolen bases.

Jasson Domínguez has struggled to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2025, he was better than an average hitter (103 wRC+), but wasn’t good enough to crack a healthy Yankees outfield. With Bellinger gone, he is back in the outfield mix even after being the fifth-worst fielding outfielder according to Baseball Savant’s Out-Above-Average. (Note: As of December 18th, he is just hitting .184/.304/.263 in the Dominican Winter League).

I was fully invested in Jackson Merrill last season, and that idea did not go as planned. After being a five-category contributor in 2024 (24 HR, 16 SB, .292 AVG), he was barely replacement-level in 2025 (16 HR, 1 SB, .264 AVG). He ranked as the 59th outfielder, just ahead of Gavin Sheets. Before a June concussion, he was batting .304/.349/.474 with 5 HR and 1 SB (2 CS) in 186 PA. After returning from the concussion and until an ankle injury, he hit just .219/.286/.354. And when he returned from the ankle injury, he hit .275/.320/.626 with 7 HR in September. I’m not sure the steals will return, so pay or a .280 AVG with 25 HR. A Yandy Díaz or Corey Seager clone.

With the trade of Willson Contreras to the Red Sox, Alec Burleson takes over first base duties for the Cardinals. The 27-year-old improved both his Contact% (83% to 84%) and Hardhit% (41% to 43%) last year. The increase in hard contact led to a career-high .290 AVG and .169 ISO. While he didn’t get platooned to end last season, it is a possibility (career .606 OPS vs LHP, .775 OPS vs RHP).

If Bryan Reynolds’s shoulder heals, I could see him return to 25 HR and double-digit steals instead of the projected 20 HR/6 SB. I want to see him playing in the field and attempting steals in Spring Training to show that his shoulder is no longer an issue.

A shoulder injury ruined the first two months of Spencer Steer’s season, but he turned it around. With his current projections, I might expect a higher batting average and home runs but fewer stolen bases.

Riley Greene has transitioned into a solid power option against righties (32 HR vs RHP, 4 HR vs LHP). Even as the 25-year-old struggled against lefties (career .680 OPS vs LHP, .825 OPS vs RHP), the Tigers started him in 157 games. The 30 HR power is legit, but he has a couple of flaws. He struckout 31% of the time last year as he struggled with fastballs (12% SwStr%). Additionally, I don’t expect him to start stealing bases with his Sprint Speed dropping from 28.1 ft/s (71st percentile) to 27.7 ft/s (59th percentile) to 26.7 ft/s (31st percentile) over the past three seasons.

Teoscar Hernandez is more well-rounded than just a power bat by chipping in a few stolen bases and ~.250 AVG. The 33-year-old’s power has been on a steady five-year decline. If the decline continues, he could be closer to 20 HR than his projected mid-to-high 20 HR totals.

Jo Adell may have improved his plate discipline enough to be a consistent home run threat.

Taylor Ward is projected for ~25 HR, 5 SB, and a .245 AVG. I could see bumping the home run number up to 30, but not any more.

Kyle Stowers turned his career around with career bests in power and contact metrics. He should be good for 25 HR to 35 HR. His batting average could dip as his BABIP regresses downward, but at least the average isn’t a major drain like in his first two seasons.

After coming off shoulder surgery, Daulton Varsho traded off contact for more power. He could be a source of 30+ HR and dozen or so stolen bases but a drain in batting average.

Over the past three seasons, Mike Trout has averaged 18 HR, 3 SB, and a .232 AVG. Those results are similar to those of Max Kepler and Kody Clemens. And I’m not sure of Trout’s upside at this point. He’s not running. A ballooning strikeout rate (32% last season) limits his batting average. Maybe managers will latch onto his late-season swing changes to make him more than a bench streamer.

Trent Grisham improved in two ways to help him the most: make more contact (80% Contact%, 2nd highest of his career) and hit the ball harder (career-high Barrel% and HardHit%). The 34 HR were double his previous high in 2022, and now all signs point to some downward regression. His 51 Barrels would normally produce 27 HR. Projections tag him with ~25 HR. Baseball Savant has him with 27.9 xHR, and had him with 29 HR if all his batted balls were in Yankee Stadium. Also, I would not expect any stolen bases after he stole a total of four over the past two seasons. I see him around a .230 AVG, 25 HR, and 2 SB.

Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jung Hoo Lee: Before the season began, Lee dealt with a back issue that flared up in mid-June. His back could have bothered him for a while but after resting at the All-Star break, he hit .293/.345/.414 from then on. While he should post a great batting average, all signs point to 10 HR and 10 SB. Also, he could end up getting platooned with a career .610 OPS against lefties and .756 OPS against righties.

During his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena may have posted his career year with highs in plate appearances (709 PA) and home runs (27 HR). At the same time, his .238 AVG was a drag. Besides the $7 he earned in 2024, he’s earned at least $17 in every season since 2021. Steady add.

While Luis Robert has been a 30/30 “full-time” player over his career, he doesn’t play enough to reach that level. Roster only if getting an extreme discount.

The 32-year-old Adolis Garcia has struggled for two straight seasons while dealing with several injuries. He’s going to need to stop and reverse several negative trends as he ages into his mid-30’s.

As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Oneil Cruz needs to improve in several areas (health, platoon issues, strikeout rate) while not backtracking in any other area. He is a solid source of power and speed. Just make sure to have a solid batting average in place before adding him.

It’ll be tough to target Colton Cowser since he’s a platoon bat with major contact issues. If a fantasy team is set on batting average, he could be an option for his home run and stolen bases.

Sal Frelick took a positive step forward in both his contact and hard hit rates last season. The key for him going forward is maintaining or improving on them … and not regressing backwards.

Only a narrow roto build will fully utilize Chandler Simpson’s skills. He does feel like a corrective action if a team misses on steals and needs to catch up.

While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.

Wilyer Abreu is a solid platoon bat whose upside is limited until he can prove that he can hit lefties.

A significant platoon disadvantage and checkered injury history limits Evan Carter’s upside.

Hopefully, Josh Lowe improves from his 2025 season, where he struggled in all aspects of his game, but I have little hope the Angels can help him rebound.

Mickey Moniak has turned into a solid platoon bat (career .497 OPS vs LHP, .760 OPS vs RHP) with some decent road numbers (career .745 OPS at home, .701 on the road, 92 wRC+ for both). He took a step forward in 2025 with a 74% Contact% and 45% HardHit%, both career highs. With more and harder contact, he hit 24 HR with a .270 AVG. I could see a repeat of the 25 HR with a solid .260 AVG with six to 12 stolen bases.

Parker Meadows is heading in the wrong direction. His HardHit% and Contact% have dropped every season. Prorating his 213 PA (missed time due to arm and quad injuries) to 639 PA, he is at 12 HR and 12 SB with a .215 AVG. The team has sat him against lefties (.502 OPS in ’25), but he’s not been good against righties (.653 OPS in ’25). I’d prefer to add him late and use him as a bench streaming option.

Combining his minor league and major league numbers, Dylan Beavers accrued 22 HR and 25 SB. Steamer600 puts him at 17 HR and 16 SB with a .243 AVG, which seems reasonable. Accruing full-time at-bats will be the biggest issue for him since the Orioles have four regular outfielders and several options at the DH spot. His 26% K% could be a drag on his batting average, like in September when he hit .167 AVG.