Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone. Tonight I’m sipping on some Early Times Bottled in Bond.
7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Tout Wars changed hosts and we are still having issues getting all the league public, so I just have the results from the 15-team auction that I’m in.
7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:
7:32
see gee: I’m looking for some high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers to gamble on early in the season. Who comes to mind?
7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Brown, Roupp, Severino, Smith-Shawver
7:33
Alex Cora: Did I mess Devers up with my whole you’re my 3B now you’re my DH switcheroo
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Note: Teams will have only played two to three regular season games when I published this list. My guesses for playing time could be off in a day or two. We’re all guesstimating right now.
Spencer Torkelson: After struggling in ’24 (.669 OPS), he was on fire this spring (1.069 OPS) and has been on base seven times in 10 PA as I write this. He needs to added to see if the breakout is real. It might now or never.
Victor Scott II: Scott won the Cardinals centerfield job and could be a great source of a steals (94 SB in ’23) if he can get on base (career .214 OBP).
Lars Nootbaar: While Nootbaar doesn’t dominate any category, he’ll contribute across the board (Steamer600 of 21 HR, 11 SB, .256 AVG) while leading off.
Joey Ortiz: I’m surprised he’s down here, especially since he’s going to be dual qualified soon. Balanced Steamer600 projection of 14 HR, 12 SB, 253 AVG.
Kyle Manzardo: I suspect Manzardo to be one of the most targetted players this weekend because of his Opening Day power outburst (2B, 3B, and HR) and productive Spring Training (.321/.357/.642). The swing-and-miss is still part of his game and could limit his playing time when he slumps.
Otto Lopez: I’m surprised by the draft hate for Lopez. He’s going to play every game and has the potential to hit 10 HR with 30 SB.
Alan Roden: I love the talent but I’m worried about his playing time once Varsho can play in the field. The decision might be who is hitting better, Roden or Will Wagner. Ranked high based on possible upside.
Jacob Wilson윌슨: Historically, 23-year-old has been a low-power, high-contact bat but did hit 4 HR during Spring Training. Take a chance now to see if he can channel his power.
Max Kepler: Expects to play every game with 20 HR power. Safe.
Tommy Pham: Solid outfield option as long as he stays out of trouble.
Michael Massey: Started at second base and hit fifth in his first two games. Solid backup plan.
Gavin Lux: To be fantasy-relevant, he must play almost every game. It was nice to see him hitting cleanup and playing left field on Opening Day with Hays on the IL.
Nolan Schanuel: Solid bat who will play every day. He doesn’t provide the power desired from a first baseman (13 HR in 607 PA in ’24).
Brett Baty: After a great Spring Training (.353/.441/.745, 10% K%), he will get some run at second base with Jeff McNeil hurt. Also, he sat on Opening Day against a lefty starter. I not sure how to rank him but I put him at the top of the platoon bats for possible upside.
Max Muncy (SS, ATH): Muncy has the Athletics’ second base job with Zack Gelof on the IL. Muncy is a respectable prospect (8th in the organization). While not a difference maker in either category, he is a power/speed threat but likely a batting average sink because of an elevated strikeout rate.
Luke Raley: When he has faced righties over his career, he has been dominant (.804 OPS) but useless against lefties (.571 OPS).
Jonathan Aranda: Against a lefty starting on Opening Day, Curtis Mead got the start instead. Over his career, Aranda has a .457 OPS against lefties and .717 against righties.
Ryan O’Hearn: Power-hitting, platoon first baseman. Gamble on the upside of others for now, settle for safety later.
Mike Yastrzemski: Yaz is not the player I’m targeting this early in the season. For years, he has provided some power while only facing righties. I’d rather take a chance on a regular breaking out.
Austin Hays: Hays was supposed to bat cleanup for the Reds but is now on the IL. It’ll be interesting to see if Lux or Hays plays more once Hays is healthy.
Josh Smith: I don’t get the demand (maybe the multi-positions), especially since he is a bench bat. And now hurt.
Tyler Freeman: Traded to Colorado to help fill in at second base for the injured Thairo Estrada. On Opening Day, Freeman wasn’t in the lineup against a lefty, and Kyle Farmer was starting instead.
Catchers
Alejandro Kirk: Depending on a league’s depth and if it’s a two-catcher league, I could see Kirk being a streaming option. For a catcher, he is a nice source of batting average.
Ben Rice: First, check your league rules to see if Rice is a catcher. In at least one of my leagues, he’s not. Solid bat getting DH at-bats.
CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name
Previous Roster%
Current Roster%
Change
Mike Yastrzemski RF SF
40%
46%
6%
Kyle Manzardo 1B CLE
39%
47%
8%
Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA
39%
45%
6%
Lars Nootbaar LF STL
38%
47%
9%
Spencer Torkelson 1B DET
37%
50%
13%
Josh H. Smith 3B TEX
35%
41%
6%
Luke Raley LF SEA
35%
39%
4%
Jonathan Aranda 1B TB
33%
37%
4%
Joseph Ortiz SS MIL
29%
33%
4%
Jacob Wilson SS ATH
28%
36%
8%
Alejandro Kirk C TOR
27%
34%
7%
Ben Rice C NYY
23%
41%
18%
Tommy Pham LF PIT
23%
29%
6%
Gavin Lux 3B CIN
19%
24%
5%
Victor Scott II CF STL
17%
49%
32%
Ryan O’Hearn 1B BAL
17%
23%
6%
Brett Baty 2B NYM
16%
33%
17%
Max Kepler LF PHI
15%
21%
6%
Michael Massey 2B KC
12%
17%
5%
Otto Lopez 2B MIA
11%
15%
4%
Austin Hays LF CIN
10%
16%
6%
Alan Roden OF TOR
6%
14%
8%
Max Muncy SS ATH
2%
9%
7%
Tyler Freeman 3B COL
2%
7%
5%
Starters
Note: Besides Giolito, the following list is just guys who made their team’s Opening Day rotation. All should move up as those who didn’t make the cut (or got hurt) will be moving down.
Tylor Megill: After his first start (1 HR, 3 H, 6 K, 1 BB in 5 IP), it may be the last chance to add him. The changes he implemented at the end of last season seem to have stuck.
Landen Roupp: Earlier this week, I wrote up Roupp and discussed why I like his value. A must-roster in deeper leagues to see how he does over his first few starts.
Drew Rasmussen: Wait to see if he can get back to his 2022 production level (2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.0 K/9) after elbow surgery.
Jack Leiter: He seems to have his walks under control after struggling with them in previous seasons. He might end up as a draft-day steal.
José Soriano: It would be interesting to see if he can repeat his 3.42 ERA from last season with his high-groundball nature (60% GB%).
AJ Smith-Shawver: Recently, I wrote up Smith-Shawver and liked his upside if he keeps the walks in check.
Casey Mize: A disappointment over 291 career innings (4.36 ERA, 7.0 K/9), but revamped his pitch mix this spring, bringing back his splitter. It’ll be interesting to see if the change translates to the majors.
Kris Bubic: Returning from elbow surgery. While productive in his return (2.67 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.02 WHIP), he only threw out of the bullpen.
Richard Fitts: I don’t have a good read on him. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, so it’s tough to pin down his talent level. Right now, I see him as a roster-and-bench player to see how his first couple of starts go.
Ben Brown: The issue with Brown is that he only has two pitches (both good), and hitters will get to him more. He has limited upside until he gets that third offering.
Luis L. Ortiz: Still a gamble at this point to see if the Guardians can fix him. It’s not that I’m against him; I like others more.
Sean Burke: An intriguing arm; I just wish he didn’t play for the White Sox. His biggest issue will be walks. Over his minor league career, he posted a 4.9 BB/9 and a 6.8 BB/9 this Spring Training.
Cade Povich: He’s in Baltimore’s rotation, but I’m not sure he’s a difference-maker. I’ll monitor his first few starts from either my bench or the waiver wire.
Chris Paddack: His strikeout and walk numbers point to a 4.00 ERA arm. The problem is that he is just too hittable, especially allowing too many home runs (career 1.4 HR/9). I’m not waiting for him to turn the corner.
Marcus Stroman: Good groundball rate, some strikeouts. Zero upside, so take some darts, and if they fail, settle for Stroman.
Tyler Mahle: In nine major league seasons, he’s had two productive seasons (2020 and 2021). Health has been a major issue the past two, with him throwing a combined 38 IP. Again, I want someone with more upside.
Griffin Canning: In 508 IP over his career, Canning has earned a 4.78 ERA (4.52 xFIP). Maybe the Mets can fix him, but I have my doubts. I’m going monitor his progress from afar.
Logan Allen로건: I was surprised to see Allen make the Guardians rotation. He struggled last season (5.73 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 7.3 K/9). Monitor him on the waiver wire for changes.
Osvaldo Bido: I liked Bido more when he was in the spacious Oakland Coliseum. His 30% GB% will lead to a ton of flyballs. In the larger park, they were outs. More will go for home runs this year. On top of the home runs, his 3.9 BB/9 means there will be runners on base to score on the homers. Pass until he shows a new talent level.
Lucas Giolito: I’m out until he starts throwing after missing all of 2024. I have low expectations.
Connor Gillispie: He started for Miami on Friday and struggled with 4 BB and 4 ER over 5 IP. He has shown no reason to be fantasy relevant so far.
CBS Starting Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name
Previous Roster%
Current Roster%
Change
Drew Rasmussen SP TB
39%
58%
19%
Kris Bubic SP KC
39%
57%
18%
Casey Mize SP DET
38%
49%
11%
Jack Leiter SP TEX
33%
49%
16%
Jose Soriano SP LAA
30%
43%
13%
Lucas Giolito SP BOS
27%
32%
5%
Luis L. Ortiz SP CLE
22%
29%
7%
A.J. Smith-Shawver SP ATL
20%
41%
21%
Richard Fitts SP BOS
19%
31%
12%
Sean Burke SP CHW
18%
39%
21%
Marcus Stroman SP NYY
17%
28%
11%
Griffin Canning SP NYM
14%
36%
22%
Ben Brown SP CHC
14%
21%
7%
Tylor Megill SP NYM
13%
26%
13%
Cade Povich SP BAL
11%
19%
8%
Tyler Mahle SP TEX
10%
18%
8%
Chris Paddack SP MIN
9%
15%
6%
Osvaldo Bido SP ATH
9%
13%
4%
Landen Roupp SP SF
7%
19%
12%
Logan Allen SP CLE
3%
9%
6%
Relievers: Save-based ranks.
Note: All the arms in committees will be ranked higher as the goal is to get a closer. The odds are better for one to get the job than an established closer lose his job.
Mike Clevinger: OK pitcher who appears to be the closer.
Emilio Pagán: Good reliever who may have the upper hand in a closer committee.
• Jack Kochanowicz made the Angels rotation, and the only place he’s rosterable right now is probably in AL-only leagues. There will be times he’ll be streamable, but for now, he’s a poor man’s Marcus Stroman. Both create a decent number of ground balls but can’t strike anyone out. At least Stroman had a 6.6 K/9 last season, while Kochanowicz’s was half that (3.4 K/9). Read the rest of this entry »
I examined why the following players were added in 30 or more NFBC Online Championships. I picked this format because some leagues were drafted in January. Most of the players are in order of most leagues added, except when I grouped some guys. The entire list is at the article’s end.
It’s time to go out on limb and make a few BOLD predictions. All of the ranks will be determined by using our auction calculator. All ADP mentioned is from 11 NFBC Main Event drafts. Read the rest of this entry »
LHP José Suarez
2024 stats: 6.02 ERA, 52 1/3 IP, 56 K, 27 BB
Spring Training stats: 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 9 K, 1 BB
Suarez has undoubtedly struggled the last two seasons, but he pitched better down the stretch last year after he was designated for assignment in mid-June, which served as a wakeup call. He also came into camp 20 pounds lighter this spring and has looked sharp on the mound, including striking out six in three innings against the Mariners on Thursday night.
Smith’s standout performance across the first three weeks of spring training must at least merit consideration. Asked Wednesday by Foul Territory to discuss one positive and negative coming from major-league spring training, Brown brought up Smith without prompt.
“The most exciting thing right now has been for me to watch Cam Smith and watch him develop. … He’s really creating a lot of conversation,” Brown said.
…
Brown retained his rookie eligibility, stayed within the required top-100 prospect lists and accrued a full year of major-league service time in 2023. Thus, Brown remains PPI-eligible. Houston will receive a comp pick after the first round of the 2026 draft should Brown finish in the top three of American League Cy Young Award or MVP voting this season.
Perhaps the Astros try something similar with Smith this season. If Walker’s injury is short-term, Houston could carry Smith to begin the season, demote him when Walker is ready to return and attempt to preserve his rookie status.
… and will start getting outfield reps.
Cam Smith will play right field in a Grapefruit League game soon, Joe Espada said.
Leiter made his MLB debut last season, but he had some ups and downs, allowing 39 runs (35 earned) in 35 2/3 innings. He figures to be an important piece of the Rangers’ rotation plans this season, no matter what happens this spring.
“Jack put himself in a great spot,” Young said. “There’s still a lot of Spring Training left, but he’s performed unbelievably well. He has gotten better each outing. Yesterday was the best I’ve seen him. We’d like to see him continue that. But he’s put himself in a great spot.”
“As we sit here right now, we don’t have one player that I’m going to say, yeah, the guy is going to get 600 plate appearances over at second base,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said earlier in camp. “It might turn out like that, but we have a few guys that we can turn to. Guys that have shown us really good things, really good ability to perform at the major-league level.”
…
But with the way the roster is aligned, the Twins would lean toward giving the bulk of the time at second base to Castro.
Stanton has said he was playing through pain in both elbows for most of last season, including during the playoffs, when he earned MVP honors by hitting four home runs in the American League Championship Series against the Guardians.
He has been attempting what he called an “interesting” course of treatment in hopes of avoiding surgery, which Stanton said would be season-ending. Stanton said, at this time, he lacks grip strength and is “having trouble picking things up” in day-to-day life. He has not swung a bat since mid-January.
The center-field battle is neck-and-neck. It would be very unlikely for the Cardinals to carry both Scott and Siani, given their similarities and the need for versatility with the remainder of the bench. St. Louis seems to be comfortable using Lars Nootbaar as a backup center fielder. That means a true competition between Siani and Scott will take place over the final 14 games — and it’s anyone’s guess who will win it.
So earlier this week, when Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters to take a good look at Thursday’s exhibition lineup once it was released, he didn’t give a reason. He didn’t say that the lineup — 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SS Willy Adames, CF Jung Hoo Lee, 3B Matt Chapman, LF Heliot Ramos, C Patrick Bailey, DH Wilmer Flores, RF Mike Yastrzemski, 2B Tyler Fitzgerald — would be his projected batting order that will start behind Logan Webb in the March 27 season opener in Cincinnati. Melvin didn’t have to say anything more. His general giddiness gave the rest away. And he wasn’t the only one eager to see the lineup in action.
The Padres could use an upgrade at this position. For now, they have four catchers in camp who might be better suited as backups. That collection includes Díaz, the highest-paid member of the group, and Maldonado, a veteran in the twilight of his career.
Others in camp: Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron
…
All of them could cycle through the big-league rotation this season, but Kolek might have a slight early edge for a spot. Saturday, he threw three hitless, efficient innings in a simulated game. At one point, Shildt said, Kolek recorded six consecutive “outs” on 13 pitches.
“He’s got a history of starting. We talked to him at Camp 44 about (stretching out into a starting role). He was enthused about it. I think he’s taken to it really well,” Shildt said. “And one of the things we talked about more conceptually — but now we’re seeing actually — is the ability to get to the point of six outs in 13 pitches. Quick outs. You got a really heavy, late pitch like (Kolek’s sinker), plus other pitches to match it, and it’s a recipe for early, softer contact. We’re still building him up, still evaluating it, but he’s off to a good start.”
Camp started with Nolan Jones projected in left field and Jordan Beck in right. Both have impact potential, and Jones proved it when he finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2023. But neither entered Saturday having hit balls consistently hard this spring, although Beck broke through with a long home run against the Angels on Monday. Black wants production.
“It’s pencil, not ink,” Black said. “We want to see good swings. We want to see good at-bats. We want to see good outfield play. In our eyes, we know what the big league outfielder looks like. That’s what we want to see.”
Corner outfielder Sean Bouchard, who entered last spring penciled in at right field before an oblique injury, entered Saturday hitting .400 with a homer, a triple and two doubles. Veteran non-roster performer Nick Martini, an outfielder-first baseman, was hitting .375 with two homers and four RBIs. And Black is giving regular time and long looks to No. 8 prospect Zac Veen and No. 6 prospect Yanquiel Fernandez.
Sam Hilliard entered Saturday 2-for-19, but his ability to play center field in a part-time role like last year allows the team to rest Brenton Doyle, helping his cause.
At the end of last season, Tovar purchased a MaxBP Machine, which fires off those soft training balls that can imitate the spin of breaking pitches that have given him trouble in the past. Sometimes, Tovar increased the degree of difficulty by using a thinner bat. The Rockies have such a machine at Coors Field — hitting coach Hensley Meulens is a partner in the company — and hitters use them during the season.
…
The homer off Webb, on an inside changeup, would have threatened glass or harder materials. The at-bat illustrated the goal of the machine purchase. He took two fastballs, the first inside, the second middle-middle for a strike before crushing Webb’s inside changeup. After seeing balls from the machine all winter, Tovar arrived in camp with the goal of seeing more pitches thrown in Spring Training competition to hone his judgment of pitch location.
“If everybody stays healthy throughout camp, you’ve got five guys, plus Albert [Suárez] is the sixth and [Cade Povich] is the seventh,” Hyde said. “It’s so early in camp right now. You’re just keeping your fingers crossed these guys can get built up and stay healthy at the same time.”
