Last week, I examined rookie pitchers Daniel Norris and Rafael Montero for my weekly Quick Looks piece. With both pitchers, they had several pitches which just got away from them. There was no way a hitter was going even think about swinging at them. These pitches put the pitcher constantly behind in the count. While I could use Zone% to determine the amount pitches in or out of the strike zone, I wanted to look a little further out of the zone to find pitches not even close to the strike zone and I ended up with, Way Out of the Zone Percentage (WOOZ%).

I have wanted to look into this subject for while after hearing Brian Bannister mention something in a Baseball Prospectus podcast. He said some pitchers can have problems with their grips as they transition from the higher seamed minor league baseball to the lower seamed MLB baseball. Specifically, he noted it hurt pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs and curve balls. Since starting Quick Looks, which concentrates on young, new pitchers, I have seen a ton of pitches not near the zone which may be caused by not having a good grip. I needed to find and solution and for now it is WOOZ%.

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• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

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Cory Rasmus

Why I watched: Outstanding in the bullpen, but transitioning to starting rotation.

Game(s) Watched: 9/28/14 vs Mariners

Game Thoughts

• His fastball was between 90-93 mph and was straight. It had the illusion of a rising fastball and over the course of the season has only generated a 32% GB%. He seems to only throw this pitch at the edges of the strike zone and will throw the slider or change when he needs a called strike.

• His change and slider are a tough to tell apart. They both come in at 85 mph, but the slider drops and runs more than the change. The change has been his bread and butter with a 52% GB% and a 27% SwStr%. The slider’s results have been worse than the change with a 41% GB% and 13% SwStr%. He has used the change more this past month.

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• OK, I got the data finally cleaned up. I have quite a few players added who look to be back for 2015, but I will keep them on until some resolution is complete. For example, John Hamilton is messed up. I will keep him on there to track him until he is playing 100%. Basically, I would rather have a potentially healthy player on the list than miss someone who may be hurt.

• Quite a few players state they will be ready for spring training which is vague. For any player giving spring training as a return time, I set their date to February in the spreadsheet.

• Adam Wainwright’s elbow is acting up as gets near the point when pitchers have their second Tommy John surgery. He came back pitching in 2012. Since then he has thrown three full seasons (582 IP) and nine post season games (54 IP). He is at the sweet spot for when pitchers need their 2nd TJS as I state in this Hardball Times article:

I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.

The seasons are bit on the low side, but he is at 636 innings. No matter how the post season goes for him, I will not be paying top dollar for him next season

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Matt Wieters was having a great season in 2014 until early May when his elbow began barking. Eventually his season was lost and he needed Tommy John surgery. Owners may not want to own a hitter coming off such an injury, especially a catcher. So looking forward to 2015, I will lay out a couple points on how to evaluate Wieters as a huge buy low candidate.

So for a timeline of Wieters last season.

April – Everything is fine and Wieters is hitting: .333/.381/.544 in 74 PA

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Another season, another look back at my ineptitude at going BOLD.

1. Miguel Cabrera will not be one of the top two fantasy players.

Miguel Cabrera was the consensus #2 player ranked coming into the season. I saw his health being a concern and someone would leap over him. Not just one player did better, it was 12 plus Trout. Even his teammate Victor Martinez did better.

1 for 1 (considering stopping now)

2. Billy Hamilton will have more stolen bases than base hits.

56 SB vs 141 hits.

I did not think he could hit good enough to be an everyday player. In the first half, he proved me wrong by hitting: .285/.319/.423. In the second half, it was only .200/.254/.257. Even more interesting to me was his .304 BABIP on the season. With his speed, he should be able to bunt and get on more than 30% of the time.

1 for 2

3. Dean Anna will produce more than Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts. Read the rest of this entry »

• For the offseason, I am going to track every player who had or plans on having off-season surgery. I will remove them once they are at 100% in spring training. For some of the injured players in the post season, like Josh Hamilton and Rajai Davis, more information will become available as the postseason goes on or once it is over. Additionally, I am working through all the 2014 injured players individually to see if I need to track them in the offseason. Right now, I have two lists. One of players I have gone through (short) and one I have not examined (long). I should be done next week and have just one list.

• Must See: The Dallas Morning News created a couple of great graphics showing how much time and money was lost to the disabled list this season with a focus on the Rangers. I will go through and run my own values later, but a nice peek at how teams performed health wise in 2014.

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Yusmeiro Petit

Why I watched: The 29-year-old is having a great year after posting a career ERA of 5.00 before this season.

Game(s) Watched: 9/20/14 vs. the Padres

Game Thoughts

• Overall, he is a strike throwing, kitchen sink pitcher. With four pitches he throws over 10%, he keeps hitters off guard.

• His four-seam, rising fastball is worthless. It is between 87-91 mph. It is straight with no movement. A few times I wondered if he threw a 2-seamer, but the Pitchf/x data doesn’t show one. It generates a ton of flyballs in which a few turn into home runs.

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• Ryan Zimmerman returned from the DL and went 2-3 in his first game back. He is far from being 100%. He can barely run jog walk right now. Kirk Gibson’s 1988 home trot is what Zimmerman’s triple reminded me of. I have no clue why he is not resting and waiting for the post-season to force himself into the lineup.

• Stuart Wallace at the Beyond The Box Score gives us his take on Glen Perkins’s elbow.

Overall, Perkins should be ready to go for next season; with the clean bill of health in terms of the UCL, fears that a Tommy John procedure is inevitable should be allayed, even with the knowledge that 40% of baseball players presenting with UCL injuries demonstrate symptoms consistent with ulnar neuritis.

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Trevor May

Why I watched: Highly touted prospect up in the majors.

Game(s) Watched: 9/14/14 vs White Sox

Game Thoughts

• Hawk was announcing. I hope I did not lose too many brain cells.

• May’s fastball was from 90-95 mph, straight with little downward movement. Looking at the values, it is at +10.1 vertical movement. Using some of my recent work, his GB% should be near 35% (actual 37.6%). He should get a good number of infield fly balls, but his home runs may be a problem at times.

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