This past season, I introduced a xBABIP equation which uses Inside Edge’s hard hit rate and player speed. Well, I have been a little slow on any updates. I have finally gotten around to getting all the 2014 values in one place.
When creating the xBABIP values, I found it correlated more to the next season’s BABIP then any other easily created formulas. Here are the 2014 values with some thoughts on some individual players.
• A bunch of small updates in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this page. More news has been coming out over the past couple of weeks as we get closer to the start of spring training.
• Miguel Cabrera may not be ready for opening day.
Cabrera’s big test comes in February when he consults Robert Anderson, a Charlotte, N.C., orthopedic surgeon who also repaired the broken ankle of retired Yankees star Derek Jeter.
“His rehab has gone well,” Rand said. “He’s in a partial weight-bearing stage, six weeks in a boot, which began just before Christmas. He’ll got back and see Dr. Anderson next month and hope the CT scan will show that everything’s well and that he can move into a full weight-bearing program.”
The Tigers, though, acknowledge Cabrera will have work to do even if he gets a thumbs-up at next month’s exam. They cannot say with assurance their spotlight hitter will be 100 percent on Opening Day.
We will find out more next month. If you have an early draft, I may stay away from him.
Why I watched: He has been getting a little love and hate here at FanGraphs. Also, I wanted to see why the Cardinals are hesitant to make him a starter.
Game(s) Watched: 9/18/14 vs Pirates
Game Thoughts
• The 23-year-old righty works fast.
• He shows his emotions quite a bit on the mound. Once he got the sign for a change, he grimaced and then threw it in the dirt.
Mat Latos began and ended his 2014 season by missing time because of injuries. Between the two layoffs, he seemed to produce like he did in the past with a 3.25 ERA (3.34 for his career). One difference between his previous couple of seasons and 2014 was a huge drop in strikeouts. They went from 8.0 K/9 in both 2012 and 2013 to 6.5 K/9 in 2014. The biggest reason for the decline in strikeouts was a near 2 mph drop in his fastball velocity. This off season he was traded from the Reds to the Marlins where he hopes regain some of the zip on his fastball, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Allen Webster was on my “to investigate” list because his strikeout rate was low compared to the number of swings-and-misses he got in 2014. The numbers intrigued me enough to watch one of his starts for one of my Quick Looks (full report on Friday).
What I found is he can’t/doesn’t throw pitches in the strike zone. Hitters need to chase his pitches out of the strike zone if they want to make contact. Most of the time they don’t though.
In an effort to figure him out further, I found out how much to adjust a pitcher’s predicted strikeout rate knowing his strike zone percentage and swinging strike rate, but it doesn’t make a huge difference.
Time for a little math. A simple way to estimate a pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%) is to double their (SwStr%). Taking all of the 2014 pitchers (min 50 IP), the r-squared between K% and two times the SwStr% (pK%) is 0.66. Good, but not great. Usually early in the season, I look for pitchers with high differences between these two values to find potential break out or bust candidates.
• Jason Kipnis may not be ready for the season’s start because of finger surgery.
“We are optimistic he’s going to be able to do a lot in Spring Training,” said Quinlan, adding the recovery time is variable. “To give you some idea, we are pretty optimistic he’s going to be able to do fielding and throwing and doing all aspects of baseball activity with the exception of hitting by the start of Spring Training, when he reports to Spring Training.
“As you know, the forces involved in gripping the bat and hitting are a little bit more extensive, so that will be the last thing he starts. We are optimistic he’ll also be on some form of hit-ting progression at the start of Spring Training.”
I don’t know if his value could be any lower after his struggles during the 2014 season and now this injury. It will be interesting to see where he ends up getting valued. I could see it all over the place and will step in if his value drops enough.
Why I watched: All over the place in 2014 with some potential.
Game(s) Watched: 9/23/14 vs Royals
Game Thoughts
• What a game to randomly pick, he got his first six outs via strikeout. He ended each at bat with a swinging strike on his change.
• Threw a 93-98 mph fastball which was straight except some glove side run at lower speeds. It is the only pitch he can throw for called strikes.
In a recent Quick Looks article on Roenis Elias, I said the following:
I couldn’t tell exactly what was different in his motion, but I seemed to be able to tell the [curve] was coming.
Commenter, Balthazar, then stated:
That is a very interesting observation on Elias somehow telegraphing his breaking pitch. Now that you mention it, I almost recall the same feeling watching him. Part of it was pitch count patterns and situations. The catcher definitely seemed to call for the curve in fairly obvious situations. Part of the effect may then be that the situation cues the observer as much as the motion; the situation called for a curve, and by gum he threw one
Well, two observations exist with on his curve and after looking at the data, we both are probably right.
Starting with a little background on Elias. He attacks hitters with a fastballs, curve and change. For ground balls, all his pitches are above average. The change is the only pitch above average by swinging strikes while the curve is adequate. The pitches work together to give him a barely above average ground-ball rate and a strikeouts rate at 7.9/9 K/9 in his first major league season. The biggest issue he had to deal with was his walks which were at 3.5 BB/9. All the preceding information led to and ERA and ERA estimators around 4.00.
• Some different takes exist on Garrett Richards return from knee surgery. They range from opening day to the mid-May.
Garrett Richards, who underwent surgery in August for a torn tendon in his left knee, was cleared by doctors Monday to begin throwing, and his agent said the right-hander was “on track” to be ready by the 2015 season opener.
….
“I don’t think we’re going to see Garrett on opening day, but I think the prognosis of having him back somewhere in the first month to six weeks of the season looks very good,” Scioscia said at the winter meetings. “We’ll see. It’s not something we can rush.”
….
“Mike is preparing for the worst-case scenario, which is more his nature,” Dipoto said. “We understood it would be a six- to nine-month [recovery]. Mike sleeps better at night planning for it to be the latter of the two. We believe Garrett will be back if not on opening day, then at some point in the not-too-distant future.”
I bet the Angels are making plans in case Richards is not ready, Scioscia let the info out of the bag and Dipoto is doing some damage control. Right now, I would side with Scioscia and be on the conservative side.
Why I watched: Just traded to Seattle and had a decent 2014.
Game(s) Watched: 9/27/14 vs Orioles
Game Thoughts
• He threw his fastballs between 92-95 mph. He had a two and four-seamer. They looked to almost be identical, but the 2-seamer drops just a bit at the last moment. Neither pitch is really special, but they are serviceable. He decreased the usage of the four seamer from 54% to 48% from April to September while increasing his sinker usage from 15% to 22%. Additionally, the lefty pounded the outside of the plate against righties.
• He threw a 78-81 mph curve. It was only a chase pitch as he couldn’t throw it for strikes. A couple of times he hung the pitch.
• His change was at 86 mph and was straight with some late sink.
• Finally, I saw a couple sliders at 86 mph with some glove side run.
• Nothing stood out … maybe the sinker. He is a 4-5 starter.
Final thoughts: I think the sum is better than the parts, but the parts aren’t really that great. It would be interesting if he swapped the usage of the two and four-seamer. I will take him in AL-only leagues, but that is it. Just not enough wow to consider elsewhere.
Why I watched: Just traded to the Red Rox
Game(s) Watched: 9/27/14 vs Cardinals
Game Thoughts
• The lefty works fast. He is ready to pitch as soon as he gets the ball back from the catcher.
• All of 28-year-old’s pitches traveled in from 10:30 to 4:30. Each is just at a little different speed and little different break.
• He pounded the 1B part of the plate to both LH and RH hitters.
• His two-seamer was between 89-91 mph with some sink. It is a plus pitch with an above average rate of grounders and swinging strikes. His four-seamer, which was around 92-93, just didn’t have the sink. It was tough at times to tell the difference between the two. The one issue he has had with the two-seamer is throwing it for strikes. Only a 40% Zone% on the 2014 season, so if hitters don’t chase it, he can run up his pitch count and is then force to use the 4-seamer (53% Zone%).
• His 86-87 mph slider was a plus chase pitch. It has the same motion as his two–seamer but with more drop. This can be seen with its 60% GB% and 17% GB%.
• His change was at 82-83 mph. It came is just like his 4-seamer, but just 10 mph slower. It will either fool the hitter (14% SwStr%) with the speed difference or the hitter will tee off on it (.380 BABIP, .229 ISO).
• He surprisingly used his curve quite a bit during the game (16% vs 2% on the season). It was at 77 mph with 10-4 motion. It seemed fairly average, but was a nice change of pace considering his other pitches.
Final thoughts: I think he has the chance to be a good pitcher if he could throw strikes more. He has some good downward movement on his pitches with a good amount of swing-and-miss. His main issue will be throwing enough called strikes early in the count to use his breaking pitches.
Why I watched: Just got traded from the White Sox to the A’s
Game(s) Watched: 9/28/14 vs Royals
Game Thoughts
• Tons of movement on his pitches, but he couldn’t throw any of them consistently.
• The 25-year-old righty’s sinker/two-seamer was 92-95 mph with some release side run and sometimes some late drop. The key to this pitch, and most of his others, is they get good movement at lower velocities. They straighten out as he overthrows them for higher speeds. Majors league hitters, besides B.J. Upton, can hit 95 mph straight fastballs.
• His slider was between 82-85 mph with glove side run. Like with his fastball, he overthrew it and just hung it a few times to get crushed.
• His 70-72 mph curve came in with a 12-6 motion and he could throw it for call strikes.
• He threw his slider and curve for a combined ~50% of the time (48.4%). The number is not out of line with his season combined value of 44.4%.
• Though I didn’t notice it during the game, but he is a flyball pitcher (40% GB%, bottom 3/4ths of the league). He allowed no home runs during the 2014 season and had a 0.6 HR/9 in all his minor league stops.
Final thoughts: I wasn’t impressed, but he could work out in Oakland’s large park since he is a flyball pitcher. I see a 5th starter/ longer relief future for him.
