• I am not sure if Anibal Sanchez’s shoulder tendinitis will delay the start of his 2016 season. He is throwing off the mound right now with the possibility of returning in a week.

• Carter Capps chances of closing increased some with A.J. Ramos dealing with a strained calf. I still think Ramos has the inside track to be the closer if he can get back on the mound soon.

• I have been reporting that Tommy John surgery returners should be in the majors in about 14 months. It seems like the Braves are now looking at 16 months.

Instead of aiming to have Simmons back pitching on a rehab stint in about 12 months and back in the big leagues in 13-14 months, as they would have in the past, the Braves are aiming to have him back in the majors in May or June. That would be 15-16 months after his February 2015 surgery.

“I guess technically I’m healthy,” said Simmons, who has thrown a few times off the bullpen mound recently. “But they want to take me a little slower. They’re doing the new protocol that they’re going by, so we’re looking at about 14 months (before beginning a rehab assignment). I guess they just want to test it and see the success rates compared to the past.

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• The MASH report will be going bi-weekly from now until the season’s ends. I will not have any reports the week starting on March 7th as I will be on vacation.

• In last week’s MASH report I reported the first player was placed on the 60-day DL. Some confusion always exists around the 60-day DL, so here are the basics.

1. There is no requirement for a team to put any player on the 60-day DL. A player can be on the 15-day DL all season.
2. The reason for the 60-day DL is to open up a 40 man roster spot. Teams will wait to make this move when they have a need for an extra spot when a non-forty-man-roster rookie is called up to the majors or a free agent is signed. Not before. Five more players were added to the 60-day DL and each move was so the team could pick up an additional player.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or follow along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The Indians pitching was the team’s strong point in 2015 by leading American League in strikeouts, HR/9, and FIP. With all of the major players from the 2015 staff returning, the team has high expectations going into 2016. Even though the top spots in the bullpen and rotation are set, some interesting battles exist further down the roster.

Defense

Usually, team defense should be considered too much when looking at pitching, but the Indians made a significant change a third of the way through the ’15 season. Mid-June, they added Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela to the left side of the infield. Before the pair arrived, the Indian’s pitchers posted a .326 BABIP. After the pair took over, the value dropped to .277. The Indians should continue to have low BABIPs with defensive minded Juan Uribe taking over at third. Indian pitcher experienced some higher early season ERAs and they may see their ERAs drop even more.

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• Joe Mauer stated that since a 2013 concussion his vision has been affected.

Twins first baseman Joe Mauer told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that his vision has been affected by the concussion that ended his 2013 season, especially during day games, as the sun makes it tough for him to pick up the ball. Mauer’s offensive production has declined the past two seasons.

Mauer, who switched to first base in 2014 after sustaining the concussion from a foul tip while catching, is going to try something new this spring, as he’ll wear sunglasses while batting for the first time.
…
The statistics seem to back up Mauer’s assertions, as Mauer hit .248/.316/.354 with three homers and 25 RBIs in 61 day games last year, but batted .276/.352/.396 with seven homers and 41 RBIs in 97 night games. He also struck out in 17.4 percent of his plate appearances during the day, but had a strikeout rate of 16.5 percent during night games.

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A couple of weeks ago, I examined some players whose playing times seemed to be undecided. Today I am going to continue looking at somw more (full list of players in a spreadsheet).

When will Prince Fielder get 1B eligibility?

For owners in leagues with 18 or less games to gain eligibility, you have nothing to worry about this season. Now, for leagues with 20 game eligibility issues, most have a 10 game in season requirement.

Looking at his Fielders 2015 1B usage, half of his 18 1B games were in April. After then, it was just over 1 per month and of those nine games, seven were interleague contests. With Mitch Moreland handling normal 1B duties again, I see it being tough for Fielder to get a ton of time at 1B without a Moreland injury. He will need to play in all interleague games and here is when those games happen for the Rangers in 2016.

Apr: 0
May: 0
Jun: 3
July 3
Aug: 4
Sep: 0

With an optimistic two extra games a month at 1B, he won’t be eligible until July if he starts all interleague games. It could be longer with the eligibility pushed into late August.

I think I would only consider him a DH for the season and if he gets 1B eligibility, bonus.

David Wright will max out playing only 130 games. Probably closer to 112 games. Read the rest of this entry »

• While looking through the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, I came across some information on reporting injuries. First, here is the form to be submitted to MLB to request a DL stint.

Additionally, there is quite a bit of information on reporting the various injuries starting on page 152 (page 165 of the .pdf). The major injury types are divided up into 12 classes: head, neck, shoulder, arm/elbow, wrist/hand/fingers, chest/back/spine, pelvis/hips, upper leg/thigh, lower leg/knee, ankle/foot/toes, internal organs, and ailments.

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Sorry for not having as many Quick Looks this off season. Instead of watching games inside while exercising, I have been exercising outside. I will try to get some more once spring training games start up so let me know of any pitchers you would like to see my thoughts on.

I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Dan Farnsworth’s scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Matthew Wisler
10/4/15 vs Cardinals
(45 CV/50 FV)
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• In my December 10th MASH article, I ran Rob Arthur’s projected days missed for hitters. Commentor jfee noted:

the total batter injury days projects out unrealistically low.
Projected days lost to injury – 2700
Days lost last year – 7643
Days lost prev year – 6015
Days lost year 3 – 5391

I can understand why player turnover would lead to the difference in actual injury from last year to yr3. But projecting that these same players will, next year, become so so healthy seems to involve PED’s (or perhaps a baseline injury rate – regression intercept – that hasn’t been included)

I finally found some time to look into the question and he was right. Using just linear regression and the inputs to the equation, I came up with the formula which set a min of 10 days missed per player:

Total DL days = 4.8 + .26 * age + 0.1 * DL Days in Year -1 + 0.03 * DL Days in Year -2 + 0.02 * DL Days in Year -3

Besides the age and constant, the other three numbers were close to Rob’s numbers:

Days missed this year = .18*(days missed last year) + .1*(days missed two years prior) + .02*(days missed three years prior) + .004*Player’s Age

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Fantasy baseball season is upon us and interest will probably spike once Super Bowl L is over. Since I may be considered an expert in fantasy baseball, I get asked questions about this or that player. Who is a sleeper? And tons of keeper questions. With these questions, I follow three rules.

1. Take the younger player.
2. Take the more talented player.
3. Take the hitter.

Sometimes the questions are a little harder to answer and the answer can be a little fuzzy with so many possible inputs and outcomes. Quite a bit of the analysis I see and hear are people just making up values. I have found I can’t go with my gut and some semblance of an intelligent answer should be constructed.

I know I have a few more resources than the average fantasy owner and I would like to put those resources to work. I have taken various questions I have seen discussed and have come up with what I hope are some more intelligently constructed answers.

The two items I will use for most of the analysis is public opinion (from Twitter polls) and historical data. With the polls, I can use the information from the crowds to at least get a consensus of public opinion. The public could be wrong, but at least I have a reasonable anchoring point to start the discussion. With the historic data, the average and range of values can be known.

Here are some questions I have pondered this pre-season and my current answers.

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• After an injury filled 2015 season, Marco Gonzales will try to stay healthy in 2016, but will start the season as the Cardinals’ 6th starter.

With his shoulder strengthened and his mind clear, Gonzales can pitch himself back into the big-league mix this spring. While there’s not an obvious spot for him in the rotation, he will be jockeying for position on the depth chart. The Cardinals will also consider their three young, lefty starters — Gonzales, Cooney and Lyons — for possible bullpen inclusion.

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