Today’s MASH edition is brought to you by some questions I hand listening to Ringer’s The MLB Show podcast featuring Ben Lindbergh and guest Stan Conte (former head Dodgers’ trainer). I would recommend listening to the entire podcast as there is quite a bit of information on injuries. From the podcast, a couple of pieces of information were mentioned by Conte I just wanted to verify them.
Jharel Cotton Quick Look
Cotton was originally signed by the Dodgers, he was just traded to the Athletics in the Rich Hill trade. MLB.com currently has him as the 12th ranked prospect in Oakland’s’ system with the following prospect grades:
Additionally, he started out the season as the 9th ranked pitcher in the Dodgers’ system with also an overall 50 grade.
For a game to watch, wanted to I picked his last one when he faced the Astros on August 19 but the A’s camera angle is horrible, so I went with the Royals game on the August 13.
Bryce Harper Disappoints
Coming into 2016, many people had Bryce Harper rated as the top fantasy player. This season has been a disappointment for sure after a .330 AVG and 42 home runs last season. It just seems like injury related struggles are derailing his potential.
For example, he popped again on my batted ball injury finder for this last week with just a 78 mph average exit velocity which is 11 mph less than his season average (89 mph). Over that time frame, he hit .067/.263/.067. The last report of an injury was a neck issue in early August, but I would not be surprised he is dealing with something new. He can’t be an MVP caliber player and just not show up for an entire weeks at a time.
• Sorry for the lack of material as I am continually dealing with my basement taking on ground water after a flood last Friday. I sort of have the situation under control, but I see my work being sporadic over the next few weeks as I deal with the situation.
Putting a value on Felix Hernandez
I am not going to sugar coat this, the 30-year-old is performing like he is done as a fantasy option. Kaput. First, his velocity is at a career low with his previously deadly sinker averaging just over 90 mph. The velocity loss has his K/9 (7.4) at a career low. Additionally, the pitch is not sinking as much as it previous did and it is getting hit hard. Posting a career high 1.1 HR might be keeping him away from the strike zone. His Zone% (42%) is at a career low which has pushed his walk rate to 3.9 BB/9 (career high).
Some of Felix’s struggles could be related to a calf injury he spent time on the DL nursing it. Since returning, he has hasn’t performed any better. Sadly, pitchers can age quickly to a lower talent level. Right now that Felix’s talent level is an unplayable pitcher and I would guess he is projected near a 4.50 ERA for next season.
Today’s MASH Report is being brought to you by Ryan Butcher and Wade Davis. The pair were given a few days off recently to get themselves back together. Butcher was sent to the minor and Davis to the DL. While both may have needed a break, one interesting note exists about them missing time, both pitchers experienced a drop in their fastball spin rate right before the decision was made
These are the first two times I have seen a major league team admit that a pitcher’s spin was used to decide on how they handle a pitcher. It has been known for a while that changes in spin rate can help detect injuries. Eno Sarris talked to FanGraphs friend, Kyle Boddy about this issue.
From that discovery flowed others. “Spin-rate changes are actually one of the best predictors of injury,” pointed out Boddy, a fact that was confirmed as a known within many parts of the baseball community by multiple sources. At Driveline, pitchers have their spin rates monitored constantly for the earliest signs of unhealthy fatigue.
The problem for the general public, we have not had good access to pitch spin data until StatCast began releasing data last year. Here is a detailed look at the two pitchers whose spin rate change cause their team to act and can we make any conclusion from them.
Note: Some of these notes were written before the games were played on Tuesday, so the stats may be a day old.
Quick Looks: Robert Stephenson
The 23-year-old Stephenson’s star has fallen a little bit since the start of the season. Here is how MLB.com and Baseball America graded him out to start the season.
| Publication | Fastball | Curve | Change | Control | Overall |
| MLB.com | 70 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 55 |
| Baseball America | 60 | 70 | 70 | 45 | 65 |
Baseball American had him graded out quite a bit higher with his curve and change being borderline elite pitches. MLB.com on the other hand graded his fastball higher.
The one aspect both publications could agree on is his lack of control. His inability to find the plate can be seen in his 4.0 BB/9 or greater since he has been promoted to Double-A.
I watched his start on the Aug. 5 versus the Mets and here are my thoughts.
Joey Wendle and JaCoby Jones: The other callups
Most of the current prospect buzz is on Yoan Moncada with our own Eric Longenhagan covering him in detail. Besides Moncada, a couple light hitting shortstops have gotten the call, the Athletics’ Joey Wendle and the Tigers’ JaCoby Jones. Let me start my examination with Wendle.
Wendle’s call to fame is that he was the main piece the A’s got for trading away Brandon Moss. Let me start with some comps to his 2016 prospect grades given by MLB.com.
Last week, I examined hitters who had a known injury they were playing through and then determined how their Stat Cast exit velocity changed. Today, I am moving on from back looking at injuries (reactive) to forward-looking (predictive). Any important conclusions drawn this early in the process should be taken with a grain of salt, but I will trudge along on anyway.
One issue I will continue to run into when looking at this data is the lack of data. Having less than two season’s worth of data is frustrating to work with. Five to six years from now, we will likely be laughing at the work that was done with so little information. Just be skeptical of the information provided as I am trying to be at the tip of the spear so I am likely to get cut a few times.
The more I looked at the data, it seemed a large drop of around 5 mph to 6 mph was indicative of a major injury. The one problem I ran into was players like A.J. Pollock who have both speed and power. Charlie Blackmon and Starling Marte as other similar players. They have wider normal ranges in exit velocity, so instead I went with looking at a half of the standard deviation of the player’s exit velocity to help flag injured players. Most of the time this value is around 5 to 7 mph.
First, I would like to apologize for recently covering quite a few players at or below the fringes for most leagues. After moving over from tracking injuries, it seems like a ton of new players have entered the league I know little about. I will probably keep up looking at fringe guys until the season’s end, especially with roster’s expanding. Once the season ends, I will mainly stop with the fringy guys and will go to the top and start making a 2017 draft list.
The Newest Mets’ Starters: Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman
All the Mets’ rotation, with the exception of Noah Syndergaard, has gone on the DL this season. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are two of the pitchers called up to be replacement starters and here is my stat only based look at each one.
Chad Kuhl: Quick Look
The 23-year-old righty has been getting some love because of his improved second half when he has posted a 2.37 ERA with 11.3% K%-BB% and a 50% GB%.
I will start with his 2016 MLB.com grades of:
His grades weren’t this high until this year. Most places saw him as a low-level bullpen arm.
Year(publication): Overall grade
2016 (BA): 40
2015 (BA): 45
2015 (MLB): 45
