Over the past week, I have collected information on how spring training closers battles have worked out from 2013 to 2016. Today, I go over the results. It’s now time to release the tables.

The first set of data shows how the team’s initial closer fared.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cody Bellinger is going to be a stud. He’s athletic and can hit the ball a mile. Just watch this home run from yesterday and enjoy.

I believe he’d be getting a ton focus if Adrian Gonzalez, and his contract, didn’t already occupy first base. The 35-year-old is still productive and can’t be benched … I think.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, I asked for help to verify historic preseason closer situations and how those roless held up. Today, I will task your memory and ask for help with two more seasons. After getting these two seasons straightened out, I’ll call it quits on the collection process and begin the analysis next week.

Please look over your favorite team and make sure the information is correct. Additionally, look over the situation with question marks as the information I gathered was vague. Finally, here is the meanings of each column. Read the rest of this entry »

• Josh Harrison discussed how his July 2015 surgery bothered him into 2016.

Harrison had surgery to repair his thumb in July 2015, and he returned at less than 100 percent. The following offseason, his training was designed to avoid putting too much weight on his thumb joint. Even during the first half of ’16, especially in cold weather, Harrison’s thumb became stiff and often stung.

“To be honest, I didn’t really feel it come back until right before I got hurt,” Harrison said.

Examining Harrison batted ball stats, there is a mixed message with his 2016 exit velocity dropping 1 mph while and increase in his launch angle led to more distance (+11 ft). The more I dug, I found very little to support a 2017 rebound. He was not productive before the 2015 injury. He never improved over the 2016 season. I may give him a small bump in value because he may have played through injuries but I think the 29-year-old may have peaked in 2014 and is just headed downhill. With him approaching 30, his one good trait, steals, may also be in jeopardy.

Read the rest of this entry »

While Saves matter little in real baseball, they’re a still a common category in Roto leagues. Owners have taken several draft day approaches to acquiring Saves. Some owners get at least two elite guys. Others scrape the bottom of the barrel. A few ignore them completely on draft day and get Saves off the waiver wire. Or the owners just ignore the category. The reason to ignore Saves on draft day is the highly perceived closer turnover rate. But what is the rate? That is what I want to answer over the next couple weeks as I collect and verify information on previous preseason closer expectations and how the expectations worked out.

The main roadblock from getting the analysis done is good information. At my advanced age, my memory isn’t great, so I will ask for some help from our readers. I have gone through the player updates from RotoWire (available on each of FanGraphs player pages) to see how long each preseason closer last in the role. Can you please check my work to see if I am right, especially where I have question marks?

Once the data has been verified correct, I will go back and crunch the numbers for some historical numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Moore’s New Cutter

I have seen quite a bit of love for Matt Moore this preseason linking an improvement with the Giants to reintroducing his cutter. After diving quickly into his profile, I found no reason to be optimistic.

The decision that Moore changed didn’t come from his ERA which was exactly 4.08 with both the Rays and Giants. His FIP dropping one point (4.51 to 3.53) was the reason for optimism. His xFIP (4.70 to 4.28) and SIERA (4.45 to 4.35) also dropped, but not as much. His peripheral stats were a mixed bag with his strikeout rate (7.6 K/9 to 9.1 K/9) and walk rate (2.8 BB/9 to 4.2 BB/9) both jumping while his HR/9 halved (1.4 to 0.7 HR/9).

Read the rest of this entry »

• Carlos Reyes had Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2017 and probably a month or two of the 2018 season. Our own Mike Sonne went into the details on predicting Reyes’s injury.

• Max Scherzer is not able to pitch because of a stress fracture in his knuckle which means he might not be ready for Opening Day.

“I don’t even want to comment on [Opening Day], because I don’t even know what I’m going to be able to do or not,” said Scherzer, who has been the Nationals’ Opening Day starter for the past two years. “It’d be unfair for me to even project or even talk about that.”
….
As Strasburg threw change-ups and sliders and honed two-seam fastballs, Scherzer was heartened by the fact that he could play catch with a baseball. He spent the winter throwing tennis and lacrosse balls to keep his arm in shape, because the baseball was too big for his injured finger to grip. He modified his grip again on Thursday.

“As this fracture continues to heal, as the symptoms continue to alleviate, as we get treatment on everything, I’ll be able to work back into all my grips and obviously get back on the mound,” Scherzer said. “But right now it’s just getting back out there, throwing a baseball and getting my arm in shape.”

Because he can’t grip a baseball, Scherzer’s not if he will be ready for the season’s start. Before this news, he was the clear #2 starter. As of now, I think he drops down to the next pack with Thor, Sale, and Bumgarner.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I participated in a 12-team NL-only auction league hosted by CBS (full analysis available soon from CBS). To add a wrinkle to the experience, I decided to try to construct an average team. No studs, but especially no scrubs. Just spend as close to $11.3 per player as possible. The main reason for this approach is that I wanted to stay away from the bottom feeders common in “Only” auctions. I was looking for regulars across the board. The strategy fell apart as my fortitude and simple rules failed.

First off, I wasn’t able to do much auction planning since I found out about it less than a week ago. Additionally, I didn’t want to use the traditional spread-the-risk approach of a bunch of $20 players. Mine idea was a No Scrubs approach. With $20 players, several $1 players enter the team. I wanted semi-talented players with jobs for every position.

After creating projections using the SGP method, I had to come up with an auction framework. In their book, Simple Rules, Donald Sull and Kathleen Eisenhardt go over how to create and utilize simple rules. Here their basic premise.

You want to make the rules as simple as possible to increase the odds that you will follow them. You can also limit your rules to two or three … to increase the odds that you will remember and follow them.

All right, I decided to go with just two rules.

1. Targets players between $5 and $17 ($11 +/- $6). I would not be able to get every player for exactly $11, so I was going to need some leeway.
2. Don’t overpay or reach for players.

Read the rest of this entry »

I just got done entering my catchers for our positional rankings series. After the first dozen players, I noticed the selection turns south quickly. The cliff happens around the 15th guy off the board. I think owners need to have a plan going into a draft or auction on how they want to approach the situation. Here are my ideas this year for different league sizes.

10-Team, 1 Catcher (#1 to #10)

• Buster Posey
• Gary Sanchez
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Russell Martin
• Yasmani Grandal
• Willson Contreras
• Salvador Perez
• Stephen Vogt
• Yadier Molina
• Brian McCann

I am fine with any of the above being my catcher.

Read the rest of this entry »

Projection Analysis: Yoan Moncada

Many prospect experts project Yoan Moncada to be one of the game’s few top prospects. Some have him as the top guy but his MLB playing time and production varied substantially. I found I needed a projection I felt comfortable using.  I’ll start with his playing time.

I believe he’ll be promoted between the Super Two deadline (so the White Sox can save money) and early September (rosters expand). I thought about using July 15th (All-Star Game) as my cut off.

Read the rest of this entry »