Last week, I examined pitchers whose strikeout per nine (K/9) increased while the strikeout per plate appearance (K%) dropped. This article focuses on the pitchers who saw their strikeout rates go in the opposite directions. Besides the strikeout divergers, I’m going to include the walk rate divergers since both player sets aren’t long.
The season seems to never end for fantasy baseball writers. Once the regular season is over, it’s time to begin writing player previews for the next season. Pitchers who’ve had their strikeout (K% and K/9) and walk rates change in different directions spin me for a loop. Now, I query these schizophrenic pitchers to start the preseason previews. I’ll give a quick look at some of these pitchers. I’ll start with those pitchers who’ve seen their K% (strikeout per batter faced) drop while K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) increase.
Two reasons exist for why the rates diverge. The key for both is increasing the number of plate appearances per innings. More plate appearances lead to their K% dropping if the strikeouts remain constant per inning. The other factor is how many hits a pitcher allows (basically BABIP). If a pitcher had good luck on balls in play and recorded more outs, they could quickly get through an inning and thereby raise their K%. Once the BABIP normalizes, the K% will drop.
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Last week I laid out my plans for combining prospect grades and “scoutable” traits to help project major league performance. Finally, I’m able to output projections with encouraging results. Just by using traits people can scout with their eyes, I created a set of projections which competes with Steamer projections. Additionally, it helps point to the traits people should look for in prospects.
Previously, I tried to use just the five traits prospects get graded on (Hit, Power, Speed, Field, and Arm) to come up with a player’s value. I found the Speed and Power grades useful but came to the following conclusion on the Hit grade:
Basically, the Hit tool is a useless component to determine hitter value as it’s currently being distributed.
The more I thought about the Hit tool, the more I concluded that it’s trying to evaluate too much information (examples of different Hit tool definitions).
For these projections, I matched up the traits hitters display with common stats. To start with, here are the core traits I decided to utilize:
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Last offseason I committed to finding if there was any information to be gleaned from prospect grades. Sometimes the grades were useful. Other times not at all. While I made some conclusions, many are still unanswered. Over the next few weeks, I going to try to find those answers.
I’m heading down the path with an unknown timetable or conclusion. My goal is to take scoutable hitter traits and come up with a usable projection system. For inputs, I will use the standard five 20-80 scouting traits of Bat, Power, Speed, Defense, and Arm. Using just these factors last year, I found an OK estimate of a player’s projection.
(10/9: Thanks to everyone for the additions.)
One player class I target for potential bargains are hitters who played through injuries. These injuries drag down a player’s production as they and their team struggle with the tradeoff of a regular player at 80% or a replacement at 100%. With the season just ending and drafts months away, I want to create a draft season reference list while people still remember parts of the 2017 season.
A few years back, I examined the negative effects of playing through injuries, mainly power. In the following season, those effects are gone for hitters.
After squeaking out the top finish in the inaugural 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head league, I moved to the 15-team mixed auction league. It was an interesting season and here are some of my “highlights”.
It’s that time when I go back through and see how my preseason BOLD predictions held up. Usually, this process is humbling but after I reviewed them mid-season, I knew I may be in for a career year.
Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.
BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.
It’s the season’s end. Good luck to everyone and hopefully I can help a few teams win their titles. Now, if there ever was a time to second guess me, it’s this weekend. Teams are limiting their pitcher innings and changing starters, especially the playoff-bound teams. Do a bit of fact checking before picking anyone up.
Note: All players have a 10% or less Yahoo! ownership.
Saturday
Luke Sims (5% owned) at Marlins (Odrisamer Despaigne)
If you’re streaming just for Wins, Sims is a perfectly decent option. He’s pitching good enough to squeak out a Win, especially against a beatable Miami team. His strikeouts are reasonable at ~7 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are likely to be high but it’s just one game.
The great, powerful, and unbelievably handsome Justin of Friends With Fantasy Benefits (and of course, RotoGraphs) is hosting four early mock drafts. I am participating in one of them.
All 4 #2EarlyMock drafts are running! https://t.co/F8MVltwVHThttps://t.co/voN0u0qhxohttps://t.co/Zs0dRbc3ZQhttps://t.co/b4kc4XbBk5
— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 21, 2017
In each draft, the following four pitchers went first without exception.
| Name | Draft 1 | Draft 2 | Draft 4 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kershaw | 11 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| Scherzer | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| Sale | 13 | 15 | 19 | 16 |
| Kluber | 15 | 27 | 15 | 19 |
Last season in NFBC drafts, these four were included with the first six pitchers drafted on average. While Kershaw and Scherzer were 1st and 2nd in each draft, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard were taken, on average, before Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Both Bumgarner (bruised ribs, strained shoulder) and Syndergaard (torn lat muscle) missed most of the 2017 season. Because of their current injuries and unknown future health, their ADP has fallen in these four mocks.
| Name | Draft 1 | Draft 2 | Draft 4 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumgarner | 31 | 38 | 24 | 31 |
| Syndergaard | 36 | 33 | 37 | 35 |
The trepidation about owning them is understandable but owners still need to value the pair. It’s not going to be easy.
Tuesday’s lowly owned starters are a sad lot. Some decent arms have their ownership up like Daniel Mengden and Tyler Anderson. It’s like “Aces and Duds” today.
Just eyeballing some names, I may hold off and use some the guys going Wednesday (e.g. Andriese, Ynoa, Leiter)
Rafael Montero (3% owned) vs Atlanta (R.A. Dickey)
Montero is a perfectly good option for a team needing just strikeouts and Wins and doesn’t care about their ERA and WHIP. The game against Atlanta is winnable and Montero is averaging 8.6 K/9 as a starter. His value gets destroyed by the 5.0 BB/9 and the problem it causes to WHIP and ERA.
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