Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

This fable is inspired by Eric Hosmer and Dansby Swanson. In my last article, I noticed both improved in some of their StatCast metrics. So, I wondered how much should the values regress? After wasting more time than I’ll admit roaming for the answers, I remembered I already discovered the answers when creating my StatCast projections. Magically the season weightings work out to simply splitting the difference between 2019 and 2020 value. Normally, the most recent season would carry more weight, but with 2020’s limited sample, the two StatCast metrics (launch angle and max exit velocity) carry equal weight. Now, I can continue drudging through life. The end.

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In 2019, I participated in AL LABR and struggled to stay out of the cellar. Coming out of the auction, I thought I would accumulate too many stolen bases but could trade one of Mallex Smith or Dee Strange-Gordon. I ran into the simple problem, they played themselves out of their jobs. From that point forward, I told myself “I will no longer rely on sh##ty baseball players”. Talent declines during a draft, but I don’t want a core piece of any team demoted to the bench or the minors. I’m going to examine a few hitters drafted in the first 10 rounds and fall into this playing time trap.

Looking back at Smith and Gordon, I should have had an inkling that they’d disappoint. Going into the season, Steamer projected Smith for a .695 OPS and Gordon for a .664. For the 2020 edition of The Process (after the fact research), I researched the production level needed to keep a hitter in a lineup. Depending on the player’s defensive ability and position, the average production level that gets a hitter demoted is between .600 OPS and .650 OPS with the average being around .635 OPS. The following chart shows the chances a player’s in-season OPS may drop to knowing their projected OPS.
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American League

Astros

• Myles Straw is set to be the centerfielder.

The Astros will make Straw win the job in spring training, but good luck identifying a legitimate challenger on the current roster.
…
He’s never hit for power, but there’s a scenario in which he gets on base enough to make it work. And if he does get on base, he’s got the potential to rack up stolen bases.

Neither of the Astros’ corner outfielders, Brantley and Kyle Tucker, are particularly strong defenders, so a good defensive center fielder is particularly important on their roster.

Straw is an “end-of-a-draft” dart throw for stolen bases. In 2018, he stole 72 over three different levels. The stolen base potential is legit but he’s projected for a replacement level ~.650 OPS. Most hitters will head to the bench producing at such a level. While his defense may give him a little more leeway and the roster is set, he’s far from a sure bet.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
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Hate is a strong term, but I already broke the ice last season with “Does Mike Matheny Hate Stolen Bases?”. I’m here to put some facts behind any narratives about Tony La Russa’s stolen base philosophy now that he’s the White Sox manager. The Sox have three (Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and Tim Anderson) of the 28 players projected for 17 or more steals this season, so La Russa’s philosophy could have a major impact. With stolen bases becoming scarcer, the following is a stab to determine the White Sox’s baserunning plan.

First, I needed to find an ideal time frame since La Russa started managing in 1979. The game has changed over those years, so I used the last ten seasons (2002 to 2011) of him managing the Cardinals. I would have liked to use a smaller date range, but the resulting player sample was too small.
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Free Agents

• Yadier Molina and …

Molina, 38, has made clear his preference to return to the Cardinals, and the Cards have expressed their interest in re-signing him. He’s seeking a two-year contract, but in a recent interview with Cardinals broadcaster Polo Ascencio for La Vida Baseball, Molina acknowledged that if an appealing offer isn’t there, he’ll consider retirement.

“I’m preparing hard. When God says — if He wants, if it’s His will that I can come back, I’ll come back,” Molina said in Spanish. “And if not, I’ll retire happy and with my head held high.”

… Masahiro Tanaka might not sign with an MLB team.

Per SNY TV’s Andy Martino, “there continues to be informed speculation in the industry” that Tanaka will return to his home country of Japan to continue his professional career.

Tanaka, who has spent all seven seasons of his MLB career with the New York Yankees, appeared on a radio show in Japan last week and said there was a “not zero” chance that he would return to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, where he played before joining MLB in 2013 (h/t Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com).

Fantasy managers just need to understand that one or both might be a big zero in 2021 and plan accordingly in leagues with no waiver wire.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1
• Part 2
• Part 3
• Part 4
• Part 5
• Part 6
• Part 7
• Part 8
• Part 9

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of eight more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8).

#523 Bryse Wilson

I’m a little surprised Wilson is being drafted this high (i.e. at all). In 42 career innings over three seasons, he has a 5.91 ERA supported by a 5.3 BB/9. He has been unplayable. I could just go through the plethora of negatives, but instead, I’ll state the few positives (career numbers).

1. He was decent in AAA in 2019 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 121 innings.
2. A 94-mph four-seamer with a 10% SwStr% and a popup inducing 32% GB%.
3. A 93-mph sinker with a 11% SwStr% and 73% GB%.
4. And what looks like an average changeup (12% SwStr%).

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