Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Angels
• Vaughn Grissom (vs LHP) and Adam Frazier form a second base platoon.
• Yoán Moncada (.679 OPS) and Oswald Peraza (.889 OPS) are splitting time at third base. Read the rest of this entry »
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Earlier this week on the CBS Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Chris Towers noted that Shane McClanahan was struggling more than he would have expected, even with his STUPH model grades down. Chris wondered if a pitcher’s STUPH drops to a new level, does the pitcher perform worse than those who were already at that level? Pitchers need time to adjust to their new talent level. Well, I decided to give the question a quick look.
When McClanahan last threw back in 2023, he had a Pitching+ of 115, and now has a Pitching+ of 90. While he has the same number of strikeouts (9 K/9), the rest of his results have been horrible (5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his walks have ballooned (5.5 BB/9). The biggest issue with analyzing this change is that it is extreme, with a two-year gap between throwing. I needed to simplify the search.
Finding a large enough sample set was a pain. The set needs to include starting pitchers (I stayed away from combining starters and relievers) with a STUPH decline into a range with a large enough sample of other pitchers already pitching in that range. And all this occurs in the few seasons that STUPH models have existed. In the end, I went with Pitching+ as my metric because I wanted the pitcher’s overall talent. Also, I wanted a quick snapshot, not a full-blown study. Future studies could use several factors.
For the sample, I took all starters with at least 40 IP in back-to-back seasons. I subdivided that group into pitchers who saw their Pitching+ drop between five and 10 points into the 95 to 105 Pitching+ range (n=26). Then I created another group of pitchers with a 97.5 to 102.5 Pitching+ range in subsequent seasons (n=37).
Here are the average values from the two samples.
| STUPH Model | Previous Pitching + | Pitching+ | Stuff+ | Location+ | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitching+ Decline to Range | 106.8 | 100.2 | 96.7 | 102.8 | 108 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 4.26 | 4.34 | 8.70 | 3.39 | 1.35 |
| Pitching + Stable in Range | 100.0 | 100.1 | 97.5 | 102.1 | 125 | 3.86 | 3.97 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 8.45 | 2.84 | 1.24 |
Even though Pitching+ was the factor controlled for, both sets’ Stuff+ and Location+ values ended up similar. And that’s about it for any similarities. The declining pitchers threw fewer innings (possible injury?) with an ERA that’s 0.64 higher and a WHIP that’s 0.11 higher. These pitchers seemed to struggle at the new talent level compared to pitchers who had time to adjust to it.
The effects seen by this one small subset mean someone should dive in to verify the results. The different ways to cut up the data could be endless. Different change sizes? Include TheBot Values? Do changes in Stuff values lead to changes in Location values? After a season with worse STUPH, do the pitchers’ results improve? As long as the sample sizes remain reasonable, the combinations are endless. I’m afraid Chris opened a can of worms.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Angels
• Yusei Kikuchi went back to his old mechanics with some improved results.
After struggling in his first four starts of the season, the left-hander turned it around by striking out eight over six scoreless innings in a 4-1 loss to the Padres on Saturday night at Angel Stadium. And Kikuchi said it happened after he reverted to a similar arm angle to last year after experimenting with a higher release point through his first four starts.
“I went over my mechanics this week and I think that brought me good results,” Kikuchi said through interpreter Koki Goto. “Going into this season, I raised my arm angle to become a better pitcher, but for the first four games, it didn’t work out well, so I brought back last year’s form. I tried to recall the drills I did, and I think that brought me good results.”
…
He also did it with better velocity, as his four-seamer reached as high as 98.6 mph and averaged 96.4 mph, which was 1.3 mph higher than his season average. He also threw it 45 percent of the time, which was way up from his season average of 25 percent.
As long as Kikuchi throws strikes (1 BB with his new arm slot), he can be an effective pitcher. His problem is that he’s had two, four-walk games so far this season with 9 ER in 8 IP. Read the rest of this entry »
| 7:31 |
: Welcome.
|
| 7:32 |
: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.
|
| 7:32 |
:
|
| 7:32 |
: Pivetta . In 12 team roto with 4 man bench are you dropping him before libratore or wrobleski?
|
| 7:33 |
: With such a short bench, you probably need to move on. He could be out months
|
| 7:34 |
: Where would I be on your waiver wire list?
|
Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Angels
• Oswald Peraza (.903 OPS), Yoán Moncada (.654 OPS), Adam Frazier (.945 OPS), and Vaughn Grissom (.730 OPS) are splitting time at second and third base. Read the rest of this entry »
David Frerker-Imagn Images
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Orioles
• Jackson Holliday was removed from his rehab assignment.
Jackson Holliday recalled from rehab assignment due to wrist soreness.Will be shut down for a few days, then sent back on new rehab assignment.
— MLB Daily News (@insidemlbnews.bsky.social) 2026-04-14T18:44:38.719Z
The actionable item here is that Jeremiah Jackson (.318/.326/.545, 3 HR) will continue to start at second base. Read the rest of this entry »
| 7:31 |
: Welcome, here are the winning bids for the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.
|
| 7:31 |
:
|
| 7:31 |
: harrison or roupp in a qs league?
|
| 7:31 |
: Roupp and it’s not close right now.
|
| 7:32 |
: Deep 12 team mixed…please pick two of Carlos Correa, J Pena, Okamoto and J Polanco. Thank you!
|
| 7:32 |
: Deep?
|
