7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

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In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• With Jorge Soler banged up (back), there has been some player movement. It doesn’t matter because the guys buried at the end of the lineup aren’t good and aren’t regulars. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of weeks ago, I examined four starting pitchers using a small sample of predictive data. It was a half-hearted comparison. I’m correcting that today with a simple FanGraphs download to spreadsheet comparison.

I decided on the stats to use based on work I did for The Process. Here is a look at what early-season stats are most predictive of rest-of-season stats (R-squared values).

I used the two overall STUFH values (BotOverall, Pitching+) and the top two ERA estimators (SIERA, xFIP). Additionally, I wanted to weigh the stats that immediately stabilize (Ball%, SwStr%, Fastball velocity).

One major change, I put all the values on an ERA scale for easier comparison. Three values came in an ERA format, but the others need to be calculated. Here are the formulas I used (also in the provided spreadsheet).

• Pitching+ ERA: (Pitching+) * (-0.067) + 10.815
• SwStr%-Ball% ERA: (-19.4472)* SwStr% + 9.985324 * (Balls/Pitches) + 2.672178
• Fastball Velo (FBv) ERA: FBv * (-0.1416) + 17.339

Here is a link to the values along with the pitchers featured in this week’s waiver wire column. I limited the time frame to just the past two weeks. I use a method that makes the best decision with a small sample.

Not all the values are in the download, so I created a copyable spreadsheet (File, Create a Copy) to paste the pitchers’ stats (cell L4), and then the various ERA values are calculated along with an overall value.  The average ERA can be ordered by using the promote option in cell J4.

In this instance, Brandon Walter stands out with everything looking great, except his 92 mph (4.32 ERA) fastball. He could bomb, but the goal is to make the best decision with little information.

One possible change is to adjust the weightings. I equally weighed the values. Someone can always give more weight to certain values (Pitching+) or just remove others (FBv). For me, the table allows for easy comparison of pitchers. If I were to evaluate each pitcher, I’d look at the above stats. This makes the analysis easier.

Two additions could be included: the first is to add a projection based on the preseason prospect rank (overall and team), the other one is to include the pitcher’s ERA projection (via xlookup).

Let me know if you have any questions on setting up the spreadsheet to help evaluate pitchers with a small MLB data sample.

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• The second base circle jerk could be over with the promotion of Christian Moore. I’m guessing third base will continue to be a revolving cast of characters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Ronny Mauricio (11): In eight games since being recalled from AAA, he has started in seven games while batting .208/.296/.375 with 1 HR and 2 SB. The lack of production stems from a 50% GB and 30% K%. He’s been struggling against slower secondaries.

Pitch: SwStr%
Changeup: 27%
Splitter: 20%
Curveball: 19%

While there is some swing-and-miss in his game, his power stands out with a 13% Barrel%, 44% HardHit%, and 90.5 mph avgEV. Batters with similar overall skill sets to Mauricio are Johan Rojas and Noelvi Marte. Add and hope he makes contact eventually.

David Fry (9): Fry slots into the short side of the DH platoon. Seven of the nine games since he came off the IL were against lefty starters (22 PA vs LHP, 3 vs RHP). They have eaten him up. So far, he’s batting .143/.280/.286 (44% K%) with 1 HR and 1 SB.

His arm isn’t healed enough to catch and hasn’t hit lefties yet, so he feels like dead weight. He has three lefties on the schedule for next week, so maybe give him one more chance before moving on.

Tyler Freeman (9): Started in nine straight games, mainly batting ninth. So far, he’s been fine while batting .303/.372/.455 with 1 HR but 7 SB. In roto leagues, those stolen bases are gold. Hopefully at some point the Rockies management pulls their heads out of their asses and moves Freeman up the lineup, but I would count on either happening.

Ryan Ritter (7): Ritter seemed like a solid add. In AAA, he hit .305/.413/.635 with 16 HR and 3 SB in 245 PA (two triples so far). While he only had a 20% K% in AAA, it has ballooned to 38% in the majors with pitchers feeding him secondaries (41% fastballs). Here are his AAA per-pitch swing-and-miss numbers.

He’s seen more sliders than any other pitch with a 32% SwStr%.

Besides his struggles at the plate, Ezequiel Tovar will return from the IL, thereby forcing Ritter to move to a new position or back to AAA.

Kyle Teel (6): Since the 23-year-old was promoted, he started all five games while batting .250/.471/.250 (3 H, 5 BB) in 17 PA. His managers hoped for a continuation of his AAA stats (8 HR, 7 SB, .295 AVG in 213 PA).

He’s only seen fastballs 34% of the time with a swinging-strike rate of 20% or higher against sliders, curves, and changes. His 29% K% (16% SwStr%) is not debilitating, but it will hold him back.

Rosterable in all two-catcher formats based on the playing time prospect status.

Parker Meadows (6): Since coming off the IL, Meadows is hitting .161/.278/.258 (.217 BABIP) with 0 HR but 2 SB. Besides the low BABIP, all of his previous metrics line up. I was hoping he’d lower his launch angle, but he’s still trying to air every ball out (46% FB%).

The team doesn’t trust him against lefties even though he’s hit lefties (108 wRC+) better than righties (101 wRC+) over his career. He sat the first time the team faced one. The other time, he hit ninth.

Hopefully, he can stay healthy and provide 20/20 production over the rest of the season.

Nick Gonzales (6): Started in eight of nine games since coming off the IL while batting .242/.278/.455 with 1 HR. Solid middle-infield bench bat.

Jac Caglianone (5): In most instances, managers rostered Jeffrey Allen weeks ago. He’s not been great but also not a complete zero (.242/.242/.303).

Jacob Melton (5): The top prospect is starting (eight of nine games) but struggling to hit (.185/.241/.185) with the culprit being a 41% K%. Seems outmatched with limited upside.

Jerar Encarnacion (5): No stat line will positively stand out with a .077 BABIP. Besides having no batted ball luck, in seven games since coming off the IL, he’s only started in four of them. A pass for now.

Starters

Sawyer Gipson-Long (11): The 27-year-old righty debuted last week and is now in the middle of a two-start week. Over three levels during his rehab, he posted a 2.20 ERA (3.01 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9. The results have continued with a 4.32 ERA (3.09 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9.

Besides focusing on the least predictive stat (ERA), everything so far points to him being an above-average pitcher. The STUPH models love him with a 64 botOverall (2.78 batERA) and 105 Pitching+ (3.78 Pitch+ERA). His 15.7% SwStr% would rank third among qualified starters behind Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease. His 26% Ball% points to a 1.0 BB/9.

I’m guessing I’ll have Gipson-Long as the top add in this week’s waiver wire report.

Note. The formula I use to convert Pitching+ to an ERA equivalent is: Pitch+ERA = -0.067 * Pitching+ + 10.815

Brandon Walter (8): In two starts, the 28-year-old lefty has been solid with a 1.64 ERA (2.45 xFIP), 0.91 WHIP, 58% GB%, and 8.2 K/9. He posted similar stats in AAA with a 2.08 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 0.76 WHIP, 60% GB%, and 9.3 K/9.

In the small sample, only the core stats are important, and they look good. His STUPHs are a 57 botOverall (3.46 ERA) and 104 Pitching+ (3.85 ERA). His 31% Ball% points to a 1.9 BB/9. While his fastball clocks in at only 92 mph, he has decent secondaries, a slider (15% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%), to get lefties and righties out. While his sinker hasn’t missed many bats (4% SwStr%), it does have a 75% GB%.

Walter needs to be added in all formats to see if the results continue.

Hunter Dobbins (6): Dobbins is a tough pitcher to value with him leaving the rotation and then rejoining it. In the last three starts, he has a 3.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Before that, it was a 7.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.

He’s experiencing some issues with his release point as seen from his game plot.

His slider is released about a foot over compared to his fastball.

There was something there, and there still could be, but we can’t know for sure. None of the managers who added Dobbins started him against the Yankees, so they are going with a wait-and-see approach.

Mitch Spence (5): He was scheduled to face the Angels and did his best with 4 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER in 5 IP. Under the hood, things look great with a cutter (9% SwStr%, 48% thrown), slider (21% SwStr%), and curve (20% SwStr%). There are some questions about him staying in the rotation.

Justin Wrobleski (5): He was promoted to start on Wednesday but didn’t get the start or an appearance in the game. I have no idea what his role is going forward.

Casparius is more than an opener. Dave Roberts envisions him being able to go around 3 innings.

Justin Wrobleski is available to pitch, but not a guarantee he gets into the game.

— Dodger Blue (@DodgerBlue1958) June 11, 2025

I’ve go no idea on how to value him right now.

Trevor Williams (5): I was part of these adds. With little pitching available, his next two starts were against Miami and Colorado in Washington. While Williams has a 5.91 ERA (.327 BABIP, 60% LOB%), his ERA estimators are at 4.00.

Mitchell Parker (5): Parker gets the same two opponents as Williams, but Parker’s is worse. His 6.0 K/9 is the 9th worst among 79 qualified starters, and his 3.6 BB/9 is too high for someone with so few strikeouts. His ERA and estimators hover around 4.50.

Bryce Elder (5): These adds were because of Elder’s home start against Colorado. On the season, Elder has shown high-3.00 ERA talent, so a reasonable dart throw against the Rockies.

Relievers

Randy Rodríguez (7): In 29 IP, he’s been elite with a 0.61 ERA (1.69 xFIP), 0.61 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9. So far, he has 3 Wins and 1 Save.

American League

Mariners

• Dominic Canzone will be part of the right field rotation.

Prior to the game, manager Dan Wilson noted that Canzone would be “in the mix” for at-bats as part of a right field rotation moving forward.

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