| 7:31 |
: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team, Tout Wars redraft leagues.
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| 7:31 |
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| 7:31 |
: Mono league. Drop Josh Lowe for Carlos Cortes or Vaughn Grissom? Ugh.
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| 7:31 |
: I’d stick with Lowe
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| 7:31 |
: 15 tm Tim Tawa or Josh Lowe? ( terrible FAAB week)
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| 7:32 |
: It’s so bad … there aren’t even hitters on the wire.
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David Richard-Imagn Images
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Lane Thomas: He’s been on heater (possibly healthy) since July 1st, batting .326/.392/.674 with 3 HR … and no make that 4 HR.
Heriberto Hernández: The power bat (13 HR in 232 PA) is now a full-time player with Owen Caissie on the IL.
Kyle Karros: He’s finally getting results from his early-season Exit Velocity increases. Since June 27th, he has hit .283/.403/.633 with 5 HR in 72 PA.
Jake Mangum: Mangum’s value just went up with Oneil Cruz on the IL until at least August 8th. Mangum (.310 AVG, 2 HR, 18 SB) will continue to man centerfield until Cruz returns.
Tristan Peters: The strong-side platoon bat is in a stretch of facing nine straight right-handed pitchers. Decent contributor with 6 HR, 5 SB, and a .300 AVG.
Cooper Pratt: In 92 PA, he still hasn’t hit a home run. At least he has 6 SB so far. He might be on the strong side of a platoon.
Jake Cronenworth: In 52 PA since coming off the IL, he has 2 HR and 2 SB while batting .280/.294/.420.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: A great .429 AVG (.488 BABIP), but no home runs or stolen bases in 50 PA.
Brett Baty: Qualified at four positions (1B, 2B, 3B, OF) and is on pace for 10 HR/10 SB with a .224 AVG. Barely a bench streamer.
José Fermín: Started in nine of ten games. He’s not productive besides being qualified at second, third, and outfield.
Colt Keith: Remains a strong-side platoon bat with five righties on the schedule for next week. Some power with 8 HR in 273 PA.
Ryan Waldschmidt: Back in the majors with three starts in the last five games. Strikeouts remain a problem with 5 K in 9 PA. No major league power (0 HR), but has 6 SB.
Tommy White: Just one start in the majors after batting .303/.353/.465 with 10 HR in AAA. He doesn’t seem to be fantasy relevant.
Luis Lara: A .782 OPS (21 PA) since being promoted, but only started in five of nine games.
Trevor Story: Doing baseball activities. He wasn’t a difference maker before this injury, so I don’t expect much when he returns.
Charlie Condon: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .288/.412/.579 with 20 HR and 5 SB in 369 PA.
Mike Sirota: Across two minor league levels (A+ and AA), the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .314/.468/.554 with 14 HR and 11 SB in 363 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Karros | 39% | 55% | 16% |
| Charlie Condon | 38% | 41% | 3% |
| Trevor Story | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Luis Lara | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Cooper Pratt | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Colt Keith | 29% | 30% | 1% |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Jake Mangum | 22% | 26% | 4% |
| Brett Baty | 22% | 23% | 1% |
| Tristan Peters | 16% | 28% | 12% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Mike Sirota | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 11% | 16% | 5% |
| Lane Thomas | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Tommy White | 4% | 13% | 9% |
| Jose Fermin | 2% | 5% | 3% |
Christian Scott: Since his first start of the season (5 BB in 1 IP), he has a 2.78 ERA (3.50 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, and 11 K/9. He’s upped it a gear in the last two starts by not allowing a run with 12 K and 1 BB in 10 IP. The only change, besides throwing more strikes, is a 10% point increase in his curveball usage. An add in all leagues to see if the low walk rate sticks.
Brandon Pfaadt: With his new release point, he’s been lights out (1.71 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP). Add now to see if the results can stick.
Zach Thornton: Started three times in three separate months with some solid overall results (2.60 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 4.24 botERA). He’s lined up to start on Tuesday. I can see adding him, but I’d not want to start him.
Dean Kremer: Among the starters with at least 10 IP (n=191), Kremer’s 21.4% K-BB% ranks 18th. Keeping his value down has been 3.0 HR/9 since returning from the IL. Some team in all leagues needs to roster him.
Patrick Sandoval: On Saturday, Sandoval dropped his stock by allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. I’m intrigued because he did it with 5 K and 1 BB (3.55 xFIP). I’ll buy into the 19% K-BB% and hope for better luck next time.
Spencer Miles: Miles’s playing time is up in the air because he’s not thrown much in the past, but he’s been solid this season (3.52 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.13 WHIP, 55% GB%). His start coming out of the break (6 ER, 6 H, 4 K, and 1 BB in 4 IP) should keep his price down.
Kyle Leahy: Over the last four games, Leahy has allowed just 1 ER (94% LOB%, .185 BABIP), leading to 0.47 (4.27 xFIP) over that stretch. For the season, he’s seen a slow increase in his fastball velocity.
Solid streaming option.
Brady Singer: Singer is on a nice eight-game stretch with a 2.76 ERA (3.91 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9. Our STUPH models don’t see anything positive with a 4.69 botERA and 88 Pitching+. I could not find any changes to think he’s taken a step forward. I don’t buy any improvement, especially since he’s seen similar eight-game stretches and then struggled on the mound.
Sean Manaea: Since rejoining the rotation, Manaea is streamable with a 4.15 ERA (4.19 xFIP, 4.31 botERA), 1.27 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9.
Matthew Liberatore: Possibly being added for a two-start week (at LAA, vs CIN). All talent indicators point to him being a mid-4.00 ERA talent.
Robert Gasser: Extreme flyball nature (26% GB%) will lead to home runs (1.9 HR/9). He was solid in June (3.95 ERA, 3.60 xFIP) but got lit up in July (7.59 ERA, 5.51 xFIP). I’m keeping my distance for now.
Owen Murphy: For now, I don’t see a good reason to roster Murphy. The longest he’s thrown in any game is 3 IP, and his skills are middling (8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 20% GB%).
Colin Rea: Nothing to see but a mid-to-high 4.00 ERA talent.
Cal Quantrill: Besides his actual 3.93 ERA, all other signs point to a 5.00 ERA talent with his 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9.
Clay Holmes: In two AA rehab starts (4 IP), he has a 6.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Not ideal.
Jackson Jobe: In two minor league rehab starts, he has a 29% K-BB%.
Ronel Blanco: A 5.14 xFIP in 17 IP during his rehab. Not the ideal production.
AJ Smith-Shawver: He has at least one more rehab start, but I’m not interested at all. He’s never shown control and is coming back from an injury. Big pass.
Seth Hernandez: In A-ball, the 20-year-old righty has a 2.61 ERA (3.12 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes | 39% | 43% | 4% |
| Christian Scott | 35% | 43% | 8% |
| Kyle Leahy | 33% | 37% | 4% |
| Brady Singer | 29% | 35% | 6% |
| Dean Kremer | 29% | 30% | 1% |
| Sean Manaea | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Seth Hernandez | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| Colin Rea | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 18% | 30% | 12% |
| A.J. Smith-Shawver | 18% | 26% | 8% |
| Jackson Jobe | 17% | 21% | 4% |
| Robert Gasser | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Spencer Miles | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Ronel Blanco | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Owen Murphy | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Patrick Sandoval | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Zach Thornton | 3% | 20% | 17% |
| Cal Quantrill | 2% | 4% | 2% |
Kirby Yates: Good reliever who may be the closer.
Grant Taylor: Great reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Andrew Kittredge: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Tyler Wells: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Jacob Webb: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Trent Thornton: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Garrett Whitlock: Good reliever who is the backup closer
Luke Weaver: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Adrian Morejon: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Dylan Lee: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Andrew Morris: Average reliever who is the backup closer.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Taylor | 39% | 46% | 7% |
| Tyler Wells | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Dylan Lee | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Garrett Whitlock | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| Luke Weaver | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Adrian Morejon | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Kirby Yates | 17% | 18% | 1% |
| Jacob Webb | 12% | 20% | 8% |
| Andrew Morris | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Andrew Kittredge | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Trent Thornton | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.
Note #2: This will be a working article on Friday as more news trickles in. I thought more news would hit the wire earlier but there wasn’t much.
Blue Jays
• Kevin Gausman has a new windup. Read the rest of this entry »
Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
William Liang-Imagn Images
Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.
Note #2: There will be another Mining the News in place of lineups this Friday. More news will come out once teams are back.
Astros
• Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are about to return from the IL.
The return of Blanco and Wesneski could satisfy the club’s starting pitching need, and relievers Bennett Sousa and Kai-Wei Teng could come off the IL immediately after the break.
Starting with Blanco, I need him to show some control once he gets to the majors in order for me to have any faith in him. His career 3.9 BB/9 is a huge red flag, even though he has a 3.45 ERA (4.36 xFIP). A combined 5.16 xFIP in the minors this year doesn’t lead to any confidence in a possible breakout.
The 28-year-old Wesneski has a little more going his way. For his career, he has a 4.01 ERA (4.04 xFIP), 1.16 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. In 11 IP so far in his rehab, he has a 1.54 ERA (3.94 xFIP) with an 8.5 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9. Read the rest of this entry »
Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
Every Sunday, in my waiver report I rank lowly rostered closers that might be worth a pickup. I add a note to each closer, in the following format:
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Grant Taylor: Good reliever who could be the closer.
Andrew Kittredge: Good reliever who seems to be the closer.
Clayton Beeter: Average reliever who is the closer.
I don’t go into details on a pitcher’s talent, but use adjectives like “Good” or “Below-Average” to give readers a sense of how I value view that pitcher’s talent. I’ve winged those values using the season’s results from our Closer Depth Charts.
| 7:30 |
: Welcome
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| 7:30 |
: No Tout Wars FAAB tonight, it runs on Wednesday this week.
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| 7:30 |
: AL only SOLDs. Drop Sabrowski for Kitterege?
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| 7:30 |
: Kittridge
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| 7:31 |
: In a 6×6 league with OPS, Drop Adell or Jared Duran for Cole Young. Hard to quit Duran who I overpaid for in the draft, and is on track for a 25/25 season, even while hitting under Mendoza with a 30%K rate. Last 30 OPS under .500. Every day feels like it could be a 2HR day for Adell, but a lot of goose eggs waiting for those days. I have positional flexibility to drop an OF for a MI. You moving on from one or, in the right situation, both Duran/Adell? And is Young a right situation?
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| 7:32 |
: I have Adell and Young valued exactly the same, with Duran below both of them
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In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »
Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article. Additionally, I’ve explained why I like to focus on OPS to evaluate hitters in this article.
Angels
• Jorge Soler might not DH as often with Mike Trout off the IL. Trout might also cut into Jose Siri’s playing time.
• Vaughn Grissom (vs LHP) and Nolan Schanuel (vs RHP) might be in a first base platoon. Read the rest of this entry »
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.
Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.
