Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Addison Barger) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later.

Note: I plan on using the the Final Take writeups in my outfielder rankings when they come up in little over a month.

Dylan Crews (Pick 146): There were high hopes for the 23-year-old top prospect (we had him ranked as #3 overall prospect) coming into the 2025 season. He was limited to 322 PA over 85 Games because of a mid-May oblique strain. He did not return until mid-August. Before going on the IL, he had a .620 OPS and a .643 OPS after returning. While the values seemed similar, he was a different hitter.

Before the injury, he posted a 28% K% (.196 AVG), and he was able to drop it to a 19% K% after the injury (.222 AVG). The improved contact came with a tradeoff, with all his power metrics down (.158 ISO to .126 ISO, 15% Barrel% to 5% Barrel%). He showed no signs of gaining his early-season power.

On the hitting front (I’ll get to the stolen bases in a bit), he has the deadly combination of too many Strikeouts for his limited power. On their own, they aren’t an issue, but the combination is. Here are the hitters around him in HardHit%-K% (min 300 PA).

Some upward regression is expected since he has the lowest OPS of the group. Also, it’s nice to see Greene, Robert, and Edwards on the list since they got drafted ahead of Crews. Overall though, it’s an uninspiring list.

The 17 SB saved Crews’ fantasy value, and the hope is that he’ll double them with a mid-30s total. There could even be hope of more since he stole 11 bags before going on the IL and just six after returning. Or he could minimize his injury risk and have a mid-20s stolen base total.

Final Take: As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Jakob Marsee (Pick 148): The one person I wrote about in my waiver wire report that I’ve got the most feedback on was Marsee. After the trade deadline, a spot opened up for him with Jesús Sánchez going to the Astros. All I wrote was:

Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.

In fairness, I didn’t care much about his overall game, but just the 57 bases he stole. At that point in the season in a Roto league, several teams could use a boost in stolen bases, and that’s what the 24-year-old provided … and more. In 235 PA (55 G), he had 5 HR, 14 SB, and a .292 AVG. While he didn’t start batting at the top of the lineup, he eventually got there by rotating through the top three spots. So, what to expect in 2026?

Starting off, here are players with similar projections to his Steamer600, where he ranks as the 144th-best option.

Not the league’s best hitters, but all provide a good number of stolen bases and a dozen or so home runs if they are given a full-time role. But those batting averages. Woof.

Our 3-year ZiPS projections agree with Steamer, non-zero power, and a good number of stolen bases, but with a near .200 AVG.

The disconnect between Marsee’s 2025 season and this projection is the 60 points or more in batting average. I’m going to go against this projection (hopefully, a clearer picture emerges once other projections become available).

I can see why the projections are not a fan of him after, in the minors, he posted a .200 AVG in ’24 and a .246 AVG in ’24. Those are over 1000 PA against weaker competition to help drag down his overall projection. On the positive side:

1. He posted a .283 xAVG, not much lower than his .292 AVG.
2. He maintains a reasonable strikeout rate and won’t need a high BABIP to keep his batting average up.
3. I have three batted ball and swing comps I can run. They average out to a .245 AVG and .280 BABIP. By increasing his rate stats by 13 points, the comps are better, but still not great.

Final Take: Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jac Caglianone (Pick 161): Caglianone’s 2025 minor league stats (1.025 OPS) compared to Nick Kurtz (1.090 OPS), but they were opposites once promoted to the majors. Kurtz nearly matched his minor league production with a 1.002 OPS. Caglianone was at half that number (.532 OPS).

Caglianone dealt with a mid-season hamstring strain, but the effects of it didn’t drag him down since he hit worse before going on the IL (.485 OPS) than after it (.643 OPS). No reasonable fantasy manager is aiming for a .643 OPS with an earlier round pick.

He struggled in all aspects of his game, with the main drags being a .172 BABIP and a 50% GB%, especially with a Sprint Speed in the bottom third of the league. He’s not beating out many throws to first base. Additionally, his power was good but not elite.

I hate to go with the answer (upward) “regression”, but all his comps and projections point to a .245 to .250 AVG. Say, he hits .250 with 25 HR (if he repeats 2025, he should have a high teens home run number) and no stolen bases. Those numbers are comparable to the Andrew Vaughn, Brett Baty, and Josh Bell level of batter. Not a top-10 round talent.

Now, if Caglianone can push those numbers to 30 and a .265 AVG, he’s more in the Riley Greene and Austin Riley talent level. Or he could repeat his 2025 season and be unrosterable. Nobody knows.

Final Take: Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Kerry Carpenter (Pick 163): As long as he’s healthy (see 2024), Carpenter is the easiest 25 HR, 0 SB, .265 AVG, and 460 PA projection. In two of his last three seasons, these numbers were almost identical, and the value wasn’t there in 2024 when he dealt with a back injury. In 2025, he came in as the 122nd-rated hitter and the 116th in 2023. A safe bet would be between the 110th and 130th hitter in 2026.

The 28-year-old sees limited at-bats because he struggles against lefties. Over his career, he has a .866 OPS against righties and a .606 OPS against lefties. He didn’t show much improvement last season with a .638 OPS against lefties.

With his consistency, the key is to find any possible upside. The most obvious would be batting against lefties, where he’d see his three counting stats go up but his batting average drop. There aren’t any other areas for him to improve unless he goes full Josh Naylor and starts stealing bases out of nowhere. He is who we thought he was.

Final Take: While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

• After releasing my comps for players hoping to move from a foreign league to the MLB, here are two more guys looking to make the move. The first is Foster Griffin (link) …

… and the other is Sung-moon Song 송성문 (link).

• There is a chance Kazuma Okamoto will not get posted after all.

Several industry sources believe that the Yomiuri Giants will not post 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto after the season.

Okamoto, 29, is one of the best hitters in Japanese baseball, with 248 career home runs.

— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) October 20, 2025

• And finally, our boy Lance Brozdowski created his own projections for some of the players making the move. He’s even more dismissive of anyone making a major impact.

American League

Rays

• The team thinks Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson can “co-exist,” but believe Jonny DeLuca will play centerfield.

Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson are coming off impressive rookie seasons. They’re similar players, built to thrive with contact and speed, with Simpson stealing more bases (44 in 109 games) and Mangum the more polished defender. But Neander said they can co-exist in the same lineup, and he noted that moving from George M. Steinbrenner Field back to Tropicana Field could help both, as their skill sets make them “built for bigger parks.”
…
“Having a lockdown defender in center field is probably as much as our identity that we’ve had as a team for as long as I’ve been here,” Neander said. “[DeLuca’s] greatest strength was to be that type of defender in center field, and not having him, we felt it.

“A healthy Jonny DeLuca will be a huge add to wherever we come out going into camp.”

I think some team will trade for one of these three centerfielders.

Royals

• Bobby Witt Jr. saw a drop in stolen bases because of a lower on-base rate and injuries.

There’s so much that goes into baserunning that it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong. Witt stole more bases this year, but he still felt like he could have had more and pointed to several reasons why he didn’t, including that his on-base percentage dipped (.389 last year to .351 this year) and that he was limited by injuries at times.

I looked into the injury angle. At RotoWire, they marked three instances of a Witt getting hurt (no IL stint):

Injury date (location)

• July 23rd (knee)
• Aug 11th (back)
• Sept 5th (back)

Before the first injury, he was 27 for 34 in stolen base attempts over 102 games. An attempt once every 3.0 games. After the first injury, he was 11 for 13 in stolen base attempts over 55 games, or an attempt once every 4.2 games. A change, but not a major one.

He started running fewer times before the first reported injury. Here are his Stolen Base attempts by month.

Month: SB Attempts

• Apr: 13
• May: 12
• Jun: 2
• Jul: 8
• Aug: 6
• Sep: 6

He was on pace for 70 SB, but then June hit, and he slowed down to 33 SB pace. I could not find a reason for the June decline.

Tigers

• Kevin McGonigle, who only played shortstop this minor-league season, is working at third base in the Arizona Fall League.

And with McGonigle, Clark and Josue Briceño (Tigers’ No. 3 prospect, No. 33 overall) likely knocking on Detroit’s door next year, Monday was no different. McGonigle is working at third base in the Arizona Fall League precisely to help his fit for a Detroit debut next season.

“I expect the players that posted dominant years in Double-A to factor into our big league team next year. They’ve earned it,” Harris said. “They posted incredible years as 20-year-olds, very young for the level. I expect their progress to continue, and I expect them to be in Detroit at some point next year.

Twins

• Top prospect, Kaelen Culpepper, added about 3 mph of bat speed.

Following his professional debut in 2024, Culpepper set out to get better. He worked to add bat speed, and according to a club official, he did just that — ticking his swing speed up by about three miles per hour. Then he maintained that throughout the season, and it showed in his results.

National League

Brewers

• Garrett Mitchell expects a normal Spring Training.

OF Garrett Mitchell
Injury: Left oblique, left shoulder
IL date: April 26 (transferred to 60-day IL on July 6)
Expected return: 2026
Status: Underwent surgery on July 1 and expects a relatively normal ramp-up to the start of Spring Training.

• Shelby Miller will miss all of the 2026 season.

RHP Shelby Miller
Injury: Right UCL sprain
IL date: Sept. 3 (60-day IL; retroactive to Sept. 2)
Expected return: Late 2026 or start of ’27
Status: Underwent surgery to repair the UCL and flexor tendon on Oct. 13 with Dr. Keith Meister and is likely to miss most or all of 2026. Will be a free agent after the World Series.

Diamondbacks

• Tyler Locklear will need surgery and will miss part of the 2026 season.

Locklear needs elbow and shoulder surgery this offseason after a collision at first base in September, and his recovery will likely force him to miss the start of next season.

Marlins

• Joe Mack made it to AAA and will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Mack, who turns 23 on Dec. 27, appears to be the catcher-in-waiting.

In 2025, Mack received an early-season promotion to Triple-A Jacksonville and helped the Jumbo Shrimp to their first national championship. In 99 games, he slashed .250/.320/.459 with 18 doubles, two triples, 18 homers and 53 RBIs.
…
Mack will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. As a result, he will receive an automatic invitation to big league camp this spring — his second straight appearance there. This time around, Mack should receive more reps than he got this year.

Nationals

• Josiah Gray will be healthy and ready for a full Spring Training after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Nationals decided to end Josiah Gray’s rehab and shut him down for the remainder of the season. The right-hander recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery will now begin his offseason program in preparation for next season instead of making one major league start before the season ends Sunday.

“I think the decision was made because he did his rehab, he was in good spirits, he was feeling good, he’s healthy. And now we want him to go home, relax and start (getting) ready for next season,” Cairo said. “Finally, he’s going to have a whole winter working to be prepared to show that he can pitch in the big leagues, that he can be with us. But he’s going to have a whole winter working out to get stronger and be healthy.”

In three rehab starts across three levels of the minor leagues, Gray allowed no runs over 6 ⅔ innings, with four hits, five walks and five strikeouts. He threw 45 pitches over 2⅔ scoreless and hitless innings while walking three and striking out two in his last start Friday night for Triple-A Rochester.

During Gray’s rehab process, the Nats were more focused on him staying healthy than his mechanics and results.

Hopefully, he found a way to throw strikes (career 4.3 BB/9 and 1.42 WHIP).

Padres

• The team may consider stretching out Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller as starters.

Preller didn’t commit to roles for either pitcher but left open the possibility of stretching one or both back out. “We’ll definitely get Mason’s thoughts and hear what he thinks is best. We’ll see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise. Then we’ll have some clear direction for him of what that looks like,” he said regarding Miller. Preller expressed a similar sentiment on Morejon. “(He’s) a lefty that’s throwing three plus pitches with command and the ability to use him in different places in the game. I think that’ll be a conversation as we get into it, similar to Mason, about what that looks like here for next year.”

Pirates

• MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf thinks Konnor Griffin will start the 2026 season in AAA and quickly work his way to the majors.

Based on conversations I had at the end of the season, I will hazard a guess that Griffin will start next year with Triple-A Indianapolis. If he performs well there, I don’t know how long he can be kept from Pittsburgh. The left side of the infield needs an upgrade. If the Pirates pick up a third baseman and have Jared Triolo start the year as the shortstop, there would be a very clear path for Griffin to reach the Majors.

Reds

• Late in the season was the first time Matt McLain started feeling 100% after having shoulder surgery.

McLain, 26, batted .220 with a .643 OPS in 147 games. He was often dropped to ninth in the lineup by the second half after opening the season batting second.

“Sometimes with shoulders and a year of development [lost], it’s just not as easy as you want,” Francona said.
….
“I do believe he’s just now starting to feel and be 100 percent. I think it’s a year-and-a-half-plus surgery to get back to full strength,” general manager Brad Meador said. “But he should have a full offseason. He should be able to have a good offseason. He knows he needs to have a good offseason. I think he’ll bounce back in a good way next year.”

First off, shoulder injuries can put a damper on a player’s season. Also, McLain didn’t show much improvement with a 76 wRC+ in the first half and 79 wRC+ in the second half. His power metric stayed the same from the first half to the second, while his contact rate dropped. I don’t buy that McLain is back in any way.

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

Astros

• The team signed Nate Pearson:

Nate Pearson to sign a 1-year deal with the Astros, per Chandler Rome.The team plans to use him as a starter.

— MLB Daily News (@fantasymlbnews.bsky.social) 2025-10-17T19:47:15.600Z

Read the rest of this entry »

Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

To get an idea of a player’s production when moving from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) and Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), I compiled a list of players who made the move and their MLB results. With the results, I compiled a list of comps to get a range of possible outcomes. We have several players coming over for their debut, but also returning arm trying to make an impact after 55 uneventful innings 2020-21.

Here they are:

Note: If I missed anyone to find the comps for, let me know. I’ll add them later to this article or possibly to Mining the News.

KBO: Hitters

Baek-ho Kang 강백호 (link)

He’ll need a full-time job to be worth a late-round pick. I’m a pass for now. Read the rest of this entry »

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

It’s time to review my preseason BOLD predictions.

1. Cristopher Sánchez will be a top-3 starting pitcher.

He didn’t quite make it to the top three but ended up sixth according to our player rater. I’ll take it as a hit.

Batting: 1.000 Read the rest of this entry »

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Logan O’Hoppe is going to be the team’s main catcher after struggling in 2025.

To this day, the Angels view O’Hoppe as their guy, said Angels GM Perry Minasian. When he comes into spring training next season, he won’t need to earn the job.

“Logan had a tough year, there’s no sugarcoating that,” Minasian said. “But yes, we believe Logan can catch. It’s a really tough position. To break in a young catcher takes time. I’m expecting a better Logan O’Hoppe.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Note: There was so many “season in review” pieces that came out I’m still working through them. I’ve got at least one more Mining the News from end-of-season comments.

• NBP’s Takahiro Norimoto could sign with an MLB team.

Rakuten Eagles RHP Takahiro Norimoto will exercise his international FA rights and wants to talk to both NPB and MLB teams.

Norimoto, 34, was a 5x PL strikeout title winner from 2014-2018. He moved to the pen in 2023 and only had a 17.3 K% this season.

https://t.co/ZxIDaytXcd

— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) October 6, 2025

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Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Other

• Batters rarely add power once in the majors and start declining due to better early-career training.

Position players are not becoming stronger in their late 20s, as conventional wisdom suggests. Bat speed and exit velocity are not immune to aging like so many other movement- and speed-based skills in the sport (like pitching velocity).

When players arrive in the major leagues, many of their underlying skills are nearly as good as they will ever be – at least since we’ve had the ability to measure them in the Statcast era.

Driveline director of hitting Tanner Stokey noted that those skills’ aging curves might have been different years ago – perhaps more players did grow into strength and bat speed – but it is a different game in the modern era.

“You just assume players are the most physically gifted they’ve been – they have all the resources in the weight room, the nutrition side, the sleep, recovery side, right? It’s very different than it was back in the day,” Stokey noted. “That stuff is pretty optimized compared to where it was 20, 30, 40 years ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

This past season was one of my worst ever. And about halfway through it, the outcome looked worse than the final results. I was able to focus on a few leagues and salvaged my bankroll. Here are some of the lessons I learned. Read the rest of this entry »

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

With the regular season over, it’s time to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their next season’s projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list.

First, here is a look at how 2024 hitters performed compared to their Steamer projections.

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