• Last night Bartolo Colon held the Los Angeles Angels to 4 base runners over the course of eight frames while striking out five. Colon hasn’t had a SwStr% that was within 2% of the league average since 2005, but nonetheless has managed to post strikeout rates that approach average. Don’t expect him to start fanning eight batters every time he takes the mound, but he limits the walks and keeps the ball in the park. He’s owned in less than one fifth of Yahoo! leagues. He’s a very handsome streaming option. And yes, that is the first time that someone other than his wife has called Colon “handsome” in quite some time.

• Jayson Werth has seemingly put his struggles of 2011 behind him. Though his nine game hitting streak came to an end yesterday, he did have an RBI and a stolen base after one of his two walks. Though he is yet to rediscover his home run swing, Werth does have three doubles and one triple already. The stolen base yesterday was the first of 2012, I think Werth still has the power and speed to go 25-20. Looking at his current Pitch f/x plate discipline, Werth is swinging at less pitches outside the zone and more pitches in the zone. Essentially his discipline has reverted back to what is was in 2010, and that is a good sign for fantasy owners. I’d look to buy low on whomever is currently owning him. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the first week where we’ll be highlighting and examining American League outfielders. We’ll look at a few early risers and fallers today.

Bullish:
Josh Willingham – So far “Compliant Pig” (kudos to Leopold Bloom of AthleticsNation for that one) has managed to stay healthy and produce healthily. Willingham’s 12 hits rank him in the top 5 of the AL and on top of that, he is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. I wouldn’t expect this kind of production all year, but given that he set a career high in homers last year despite playing in another pitchers park, Willingham clearly hasn’t lost any power to age. He is looking quite good thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the mildly vaunted Friday the 13th today! Instead of bad luck and misfortune, I bring you a wide array of fantasy baseball relevant news from the world. Well, at least the world of baseball.

• The Cleveland Indians have apparently talked to and potentially signed Johnny Damon. Although it is not yet official (note the time stamps on the Heyman tweet and the Bastian article). Assuming Damon and Shelley Duncan for a platoon in left field, that figures to give the lefty batting Damon the majority of playing time. In more or less 650 PA (647 actually) in last year, Damon managed a 108 wRC+ for the season. His ZiPS line of .256/.328/.406 seems about in line with what we could reasonably expect the now 39 year old to be able to do. If you need a bench bat, Damon wouldn’t be a terrible pick. He won’t dazzle you with power or steals, but he’ll be playing against right-handed starters and figures to score some runs. He’s worth a flier if you need an OF.

• Stephen Drew is progressing nicely in extended spring training. Yesterday marked only his second look at a game atmosphere since breaking his ankle over nine months ago. He only played one inning in the field, but tallied four at bats in the game. Though there is no timetable for his return, Drew is certainly someone to keep an eye on. Drew had himself a 5 WAR season in 2010 before the injury cut his season short last year. Assuming he comes back healthy, he is certain to be a mid-to-late season boost to any fantasy team.

• Lorenzo Cain hit the DL yesterday after first hitting the outfield wall. If you decided to gamble and ride his hot spring training into the season, you’ll be needing a replacement outfielder. I would suggest taking a flier on Rajai Davis. Though he won’t get many starts, he will rack up the steals for you, 34 last year despite only 338 PA, and he will come around and score a few runs for you as well. If nothing else, Davis is a worthwhile replacement for the two week spell that Cain is expected to miss.

FanGraphs: The Game is a free and daily fantasy baseball system. If you haven’t yet created a player, I urge you to do so. It’s absurdly fun and highly competitive.

A Pitcher for Today: Jeremy Guthrie (COL) at SD
Normally I wouldn’t recommend Guthrie to anyone, but pitching in Petco is simply different than anywhere else.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Tom Milone (OAK) at SEA
I wouldn’t expect Milone to keep dancing between the raindrops and having a WHIP of just 0.75, but his strikeouts should get a nice bump against the inept Mariners offense.

A Hitter for Today: Melky Cabrera (SF) vs PIT
Melky has started this year on a tear, and is facing likely starer James McDonald. Melky tends to hit righties slightly better; by a difference of .15 wOBA. He should come cheaply so if you need to save your budget in the outfield, Melky is a potentially great value.

Today’s Roto Riteup is one where I can guarantee with 100% certainty that my pick’s team for The Game won’t get four-hit by Barry Zito.

• Andy Pettitte threw 32 pitches for the Yankees’ single A affiliate in Tampa Bay yesterday. According to the report, he threw 26 for strikes. He lasted 3 innings and allowed one run and two hits in his outing. Unfortunately there is no mention of his velocity in this instance. The last report I could find had him topping out at 88 mph. Given that he averaged 89 for the past few years, to see him top out below his previous average is concerning. If nothing else, maybe Pettitte can be a stream option as the season moves on. We’ll be sure to keep you up to date.

• If by chance you play in an OBP league, Daric Barton is now the starting first-baseman in Oakland. He could be worth a shot in Ottoneu FanGraphs Points formats too, but that is the extent of his fantasy relevancy. If you’re in a 12 team mixed 5×5, feel free to move right along here. Barton’s OBP skills translate directly from his 14.2 career walk percentage. The A’s lineup is uninspiring for the most part, so don’t expect many runs or RBI’s. As always with Barton, any extra base hits he generates are a rare bonus. Read the rest of this entry »

The American League outfield has a wide mix of both talent and age. On one hand there is Mike Trout, and then on the other there is Vernon Wells. And that diverse situation is just on one team in the AL.

This is the first week of AL OF Tiered Rankings, and they’ll be coming out on the first Monday of every month. On the later Mondays of each month we’ll be looking at individual AL outfielders and examining them much more closely.

Tier One
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury

Putting Joey Bats first here was a pretty easy call. His transformation has been well documented, but it never ceases to amaze me that a man can reinvent himself on a random September day and then become one of the best hitters in baseball for the foreseeable future. Pairing Bautista with Ellsbury was something that I really wrestled with. I don’t expect 30 home runs again, but his combination of power and steals (I’m thinking 20 HR and 55 SB) and his .300 career average tilted me in favor of putting him here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ladies and gentlemen, baseball is here! Well, at least it is for 17 out of 30 teams. The remaining 13 teams will finally be getting into the action today. Before we get started with the previews for the day, a few pertinent things to note:

– Scott Baker has apparently suffered another setback in his rehabbing with the Twins’ Single-A affiliate this afternoon. He was scheduled to throw 75 pitches, but lasted a mere 11 before being pulled. Baker’s current Yahoo! ownership sits at 42% (he is even owned in the FG vs THT Expert League), but I would expect that to drop. Baker has only once ever pitched 200 innings in a single season, and it appears as though 2012 will be another sub-200 frame season from him.

– Of all the aces throwing today, it is possible that Justin Masterson had the best day of them all. A solo shot by Jose Bautista was one of only two hits he gave up to go along with his sole walk and 10 strikeouts. Unfortunately for Masterson and for his fantasy owners, he was not rewarded with the win, despite leaving the game after eight innings and a three-run lead. Closer Chris Perez came on the top of the ninth and rapidly surrendered a pair of walks, a trio of hits and ultimately that one blown save, all in a mere two-thirds of an inning.

Throughout the Blue Jays/Indians game there was a running phenomenon where pitchers on both sides seemed to be throwing noticeably slower than their norms. Masterson was sitting around 90 mph, and his opposition, Ricky Romero, was even lower at 89. Perez was the most notable, topping at 91 in his short time on the mound. Immediately after the game there were several questions on my twitter timeline asking about Perez’s potentially lingering injury.

FanGraphs’ very own Jeff Zimmerman tackled the velocity subject and determined that it was one of two scenarios: every single pitcher (14 total) was experiencing a decrease in velocity, or the Cleveland radar gun was between 2 and 2.5 mph out of calibration on the slow side. In other words, Perez seems to be fine from a velocity standpoint, he was just hit hard today because well, he’s Chris Perez. I would look to snap up Vinnie Pestano if he’s available. Despite Perez’s seemingly fine velocity, I can’t imagine he hangs on to the closer job for much longer.

A Pitcher For Today: Chad Billinglsey (LAD) at SD
Bils has struck out at least 150 batters in three straight years and today he matches up against the Padres in San Diego. He’s currently owned in just half of all Yahoo! leagues. Bilingsley is a better than decent pitcher and he’s playing at Petco. What’s not to like?

A Pitcher For Tomorrow: Francisco Liriano (MIN) at BAL
The major issue that has plagued Liriano the past few years (other than health) has been attempting to limit the free passes. Luckily he is facing the Orioles, the team that drew the 24th fewest walks in baseball last year. I expect Liriano to have a solid day. He’s only owned in 72% and as a stream option early in the year, he is worth the risk.

FanGraphs: The Game
Shortstop
A thin position with a hitter who can maybe pop 20 homers this year? And is right-handed and enjoying a game in Texas? If you’re picking at shortstop, you need to be paying Alexei Ramirez today. He’s good for about 15-15 each year. He plays in a hitters park, and is now on the road in an even better hitters’ park.

Outfield
As counter-intuitive as it is to be buying hitters from Oakland, tomorrow is day to bid on their outfielders. Jason Vargas isn’t exactly Cy Young material and between guys like Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick, there is speed, power and speed, and power right there. You can probably pluck these guys pretty cheaply too.

The focus of today’s Roto Riteup will be on just one player, Marlon Byrd, and the recent trade rumors surrounding him to Atlanta or possibly Washington.

Injuries and player development are the two biggest “ifs” in both baseball and fantasy baseball alike. Will a player finally make the leap from prospect to player? From projection to production? Who will stay healthy for 550 plate appearances? It is impossible to accurately predict these things all the time, but due to recent development and injury news, some teams are left scrambling to fill out their rosters.
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Given that the true regular season hasn’t started yet, The Game still isn’t quite in full swing either. Instead, today’s Roto Riteup will highlight a couple players that may see action in the MLB opener. The Miami Marlins play host to the reigning World Champion St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, April 4th to open up baseball here in the Eastern Standard Time Zone.

Rather than focus on the obvious fantasy candidates, I’ll highlight some useful bullpen arms for each squad.

– Heath Bell is the obvious closer in Miami. No doubt. This of course presents the next biggest bullpen question: who will be the setup man? As of today, manager Ozzie Guillen is yet to announce it to be any single person, but some are inclined to believe it will be Edward Mujica. Given that Mujica already has two holds and a K/9 above 10.0 and hasn’t surrendered a single walk in Spring Training, it would be hard to argue against him. If you play in a holds league, setup men are worth almost as much as closers. A deeper glance at Bell would also suggest that he is on a three year downward trend. In 2011, Mujica had a higher strikeout rate and a lower strikeout rate than Bell. If Bell struggles repeatedly, expect Mujica to be amongst the first to be tried at closer. Mujica is owned in only 3% of Yahoo! leagues. He deserves to be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Location, location, location.

No, I’m not talking about real estate. I’m talking about the different park factors that players (and fantasy owners) have to deal with. Today’s Roto Riteup deals with players who may end up in a different uniform before the season is over.

– Mark Reynolds has apparently hit the trading block. Reynolds topped 30 homers for the third straight year, and is a known commodity as a relatively cheap power source. His home park last year certainly aided him, as Camden Yards had the third highest home run factor for right handed batters, 123 via StatCorner. Given that, almost anywhere else that Reynolds lands is likely to cause a dip in his power numbers. Mark Reynolds without the power? That isn’t exactly an ideal player to own.

Read the rest of this entry »