Last week, we reviewed the top third basemen of 2016. The best players at the position were of no surprise – Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson. Most third basemen produced fantasy value through their power. Eight of the top 10 hit at least 30 home runs. The other two stole 62 and 40 bases with fewer than 20 home runs.

The hot corner offers fantasy owners a distinct choice. You can have power, you can have speed, or you can have Todd Frazier’s broken batting average. If you’re targeting fewer than 30 home runs at the position, you better be getting at least 20 stolen bases. And you’ll need to make up for the lost power at another position.

We already have a theme – power and speed. The breakouts at the position either homered or stole more than expected. With a small caveat*, nobody performed like the 2015 version of Manny Machado. Not even Machado.

*Nobody expected Jonathan Villar (19), Eduardo Nunez (16), or Hernan Perez (13) to homer as much as they did, but that can mostly be chalked up to volume. They out-homered expectations by only a small amount on a rate basis. Their stolen bases were much more unexpected.

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If you joined me for yesterday’s Way Too Early Rankings, I spent most of the article discussing the ridiculous depth atop the shortstop depth chart. The first seven guys are stars. The eighth guy is Jean Segura (unlisted in the linked article). He’s one repeat season away from joining the fantasy stars of the position.

As with second base, shortstop is typically a place you go in the late rounds for stolen bases and empty batting average. That’s all changed. While it’s not as deep as second base, there are enough high quality options for most leagues.

The breakout seasons of 2016 fell into two categories: young players getting their first shot and mushroom-fueled veterans. You know the one I’m talking about, it’s red with white polka dots. Using these two profiles, let’s try to predict who might outperform expectations in 2017.

Before we continue, I want to be clear about something. Most of what we’re discussing below can be categorized as exceedingly unlikely. I’m just trying to find players who may improve in some kind of predictable way.

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This is the fifth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, last week’s post on third basemen also has links to the other positions. Yesterday, we reviewed what happened in 2016 including the surprising discovery that Corey Seager’s lack of stolen bases put him a full tier behind the top of the class.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

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In reality, Corey Seager was indisputably the top shortstop of 2016. Fantasy is not reality. It’s axiomatic. We value things in our fantasy world, like stolen bases, that just aren’t very important in the real universe. I think you probably know where I’m going with this – Seager is not the top shortstop because he didn’t steal bases. Those things are important. I’d argue it’s doubly important for your middle infielders to be base thieves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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Second base was arguably the deepest position in 2016. Typically a source of stolen bases and empty batting average, the keystone turned into a powerhouse for both fantasy and real teams. Here’s the weird part: the players who produced all this unexpected value were veterans.

Jose Altuve turned on the power switch, as did Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, Ian Kinsler, and others. With the exception of Segura and maybe Murphy, these are all players who were already considered the cream of the crop at second base. They exceeded all expectations last season.

The best case scenario for Trea Turner showed up in Washington for half a season. The Rockies finally let DJ LeMahieu bat in a prominent spot. Jason Kipnis had what would have been a top three season in years past. He was 10th best this time. The list goes on.

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This is the fourth part of a continuing series. Catchers, first basemen, and second basemen were already covered. Yesterday, we retrospectively evaluated third base values for the 2016 season. And if you click into that article, there are even more links for you to reference. Let’s continue with some disclaimers.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

(please excuse the width of these tables)

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Coors Field: god’s gift to fantasy sports. If you were to sort a typical FanGraphs leaderboard by offensive production, Nolan Arenado is eighth, sandwiched between Matt Carpenter and Evan Longoria. If the exercise is to grade fantasy production, Arenado outpaced Kris Bryant as the top third baseman by a full $3. As we all know, the real and fantasy worlds do not have a 1:1 relationship.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

I already teased the top two, let’s see where the chips fall.

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Presently, you are reading the third part of a continuing series, the title of which can be found above this paragraph. Catchers and first baseman were already covered. Yesterday, we peered into the misty past to evaluate 2016 performances at second base.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to slide over to second base in our 2016 End of Season Rankings series. In case you missed the first two installments, check out catchers and first basemen. You can also dive straight into the auction calculator. It’s an easy way to estimate player value for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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Way way back in 2015, the catcher position was Buster Posey, Buster Posey, and more Buster Posey. Per Zach Sanders’ calculations, Posey outperformed the two next-best catchers (Russell Martin and Brian McCann) by $11. The fourth best guy was $15 less valuable than Posey. Clearly, it was a year to own Posey.

This year, Jonathan Lucroy, Posey, and Wilson Ramos produced between $20.60 and $22.60 according to the FanGraphs auction calculator. Several other catchers weren’t too far off their pace. However, we can’t do a pure apples-to-apples comparison between the two calculations. Sanders did his analysis for a one catcher league. I assumed two catchers.

For the purposes of conducting fantasy analysis, I consider the two catcher format to be more instructive. In a one catcher league, the optimum catcher strategy is overly simplified. You can pay out the nose for Posey, hope to get a bargain on a modest investment like Realmuto, or take the best $1 catcher. Personally, I always opt for the $1 unit. You’re almost as likely to get the next version of Ramos.

However, I’m still curious how 2015 compares to 2016. Fortunately, the auction calculator is very flexible. I recreated the values for a one catcher league. The prices for the top trio decreased by about $7 – mostly because the position adjustment dropped by $6.

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