Out of Nowhere: 2017 Breakout Candidates at Catcher

Way way back in 2015, the catcher position was Buster Posey, Buster Posey, and more Buster Posey. Per Zach Sanders’ calculations, Posey outperformed the two next-best catchers (Russell Martin and Brian McCann) by $11. The fourth best guy was $15 less valuable than Posey. Clearly, it was a year to own Posey.

This year, Jonathan Lucroy, Posey, and Wilson Ramos produced between $20.60 and $22.60 according to the FanGraphs auction calculator. Several other catchers weren’t too far off their pace. However, we can’t do a pure apples-to-apples comparison between the two calculations. Sanders did his analysis for a one catcher league. I assumed two catchers.

For the purposes of conducting fantasy analysis, I consider the two catcher format to be more instructive. In a one catcher league, the optimum catcher strategy is overly simplified. You can pay out the nose for Posey, hope to get a bargain on a modest investment like Realmuto, or take the best $1 catcher. Personally, I always opt for the $1 unit. You’re almost as likely to get the next version of Ramos.

However, I’m still curious how 2015 compares to 2016. Fortunately, the auction calculator is very flexible. I recreated the values for a one catcher league. The prices for the top trio decreased by about $7 – mostly because the position adjustment dropped by $6.

Now that that’s out of the way, I’m going to return to my two catcher universe. Unsurprisingly, the catcher position had relatively few surprise performers. They fall into one of three categories: veteran rebounds, prospects, and opportunistic backups. Oh, let’s spin up a fourth category for Evan Gattis. He regained catcher eligibility.

Lucroy and Ramos were the meaningful veteran investments. The rest of the familiar faces performed at or below expectations. Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras figure to be two of the biggest names at the position for years to come – at least from a fantasy perspective. A few young players also took a step forward – namely Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, and Cameron Rupp.

From the last group, Sandy Leon, Tucker Barnhart, Chris Herrmann, and David Ross were much better than anyone expected. I suppose Barnhart and Ross weren’t total surprises, but I don’t know anybody who was looking at Leon or Babe Herrmann this spring.

Possible Veteran Rebounds

In a way, the rebound candidates are glaringly obvious. Derek Norris barely kept his head above water for his owners – mostly because he played frequently and stole nine bases. Norris posted a career worst batting average fueled a dreadful .238 BABIP. He also experienced a sharp uptick in strikeouts. Those looking for a silver lining should check out his batted ball data. He traded a few ground balls for liners and flies whilst delivering a career best hard hit rate. His shaky defense could lead to a backup role.

Yan Gomes struggled, then he was injured, and now he’s being outshined in the playoffs by Roberto Perez. Gomes is signed long term in Cleveland, and I fully expect him to regain the starting role next spring. His terrible season can be pinned upon a .189 BABIP. However, with his awful plate discipline and mediocre batted ball profile, it would not be a surprise if Gomes was no longer a major league player. He needs to make adjustments.

What happened to Travis d’Arnaud? The funk was real, and it’s easy to see in his batted ball data. Sure, he continued to hit the ball hard, but his ground ball rate spiked 15 percentage points to 52.2 percent. His line drive and fly ball rates suffered corresponding nose dives. And most everything he hit was between second and third base, making him eminently shiftable. A return to fundamentals could restore TdA’s 2015 mojo.

Here’s one more name: Devin Mesoraco. Perhaps he still lives?

Prospects of Note

A few unestablished players may get their chance to secure a regular role. The ones I’m tracking most aggressively are Tom Murphy, Austin Hedges, and Andrew Susac.

Murphy figures to be hugely popular because he’s a power bat at Coors Field. Between Triple-A and the majors, he popped 24 home runs in 370 plate appearances. He’s suffered through a plague of whiffs at the major league level. Extremely high hard hit rates have helped him to hide a 33 percent strikeout rate through his first 88 plate appearances. I’m willing to overlook the problems if his contact remains elite.

Hedges, long considered one of the best defensive catching prospects, experienced a hitting breakthrough at Triple-A. He slashed .326/.353/.597 in a very friendly hitting environment. In a short September stint, he managed just three hits in 26 plate appearances. Undoubtedly, the Padres hope he’ll stake a claim to the job during the spring. They may be hesitant to throw open the door without a backup plan in place.

Susac is finally out of Posey’s shadow following a trade to Milwaukee. The 26-year-old has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he should benefit from one of the friendliest parks for hitters. Susac probably won’t break the matrix, but he could put together Cameron Rupp-like numbers on a $1 contract.

Don’t forget about Blake Swihart. Last winter, he was the “next Buster Posey.” The shine has come off him. Now he’s a potential bargain. There are worse ways to spend $1.

Opportunistic Backups

Given the unpredictable nature of this category, I can’t confidently recommend anybody. However, I have my eyes on Austin Barnes, Miguel Montero, Tony Wolters, and Omar Narvaez. Barnes will need help from an injury to Grandal if he wants to play regularly. Especially if the Dodgers re-sign A.J. Ellis.

Most pundits expect Chicago to ship Montero elsewhere this winter. I’m not entirely sure Chicago fully trusts a duo of Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. Injuries and/or sophomore slumps could open a chance for Montero to shine one last time in Chi-town. It’s too bad his defensive chops are iffy.

I’ve listed Wolters here purely because he plays at Coors Field. And if Murphy scuffles, then the light-hitting Wolters may be next in line. Otherwise, it’s Dustin Garneau.

Narvaez is a contact-oriented hitter with minimal power. He reminds me of an early career Carlos Ruiz. Chooch eventually developed into a useful fantasy catcher. I expect Narvaez to get that chance too.