Out of Nowhere: Breakout Candidates at Shortstop

If you joined me for yesterday’s Way Too Early Rankings, I spent most of the article discussing the ridiculous depth atop the shortstop depth chart. The first seven guys are stars. The eighth guy is Jean Segura (unlisted in the linked article). He’s one repeat season away from joining the fantasy stars of the position.

As with second base, shortstop is typically a place you go in the late rounds for stolen bases and empty batting average. That’s all changed. While it’s not as deep as second base, there are enough high quality options for most leagues.

The breakout seasons of 2016 fell into two categories: young players getting their first shot and mushroom-fueled veterans. You know the one I’m talking about, it’s red with white polka dots. Using these two profiles, let’s try to predict who might outperform expectations in 2017.

Before we continue, I want to be clear about something. Most of what we’re discussing below can be categorized as exceedingly unlikely. I’m just trying to find players who may improve in some kind of predictable way.

More Young Folk

Of the seven super-star shortstops, Jonathan Villar is the old geezer at 25 years old. Manny Machado, Trevor Story, and Xander Bogaerts are all on the young side of 24 (Story’s birthday was yesterday). Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are 22. And even though he’s not in same asset class as the others, 22-year-old Addison Russell is also very good and very young.

More youth is on the horizon. Alex Bregman may eventually supplant Correa at shortstop, but let’s ignore him for now. Others who have already reached the majors include Dansby Swanson, Jose Peraza, Tim Anderson, Orlando Arcia, Jorge Polanco, and Jurickson Profar. In the not-too-distant future (i.e. possibly during the 2017 season), we’ll also see J.P. Crawford, Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames, and Franklin Barreto.

Nobody will be sleeping on Swanson, nor should you ignore Peraza. Swanson hit at the bottom of the Braves lineup during his brief 2016 debut. With a good spring, he’s poised to take a spot batting ahead of Freddie Freeman. Peraza is the shortstop version of Dee Gordon (pre-2016 edition). Peraza puts even more balls in play, and his home park should help him to hit a few home runs. Peraza won’t go full-on Villar, but he may produce monster numbers in steals, runs, and average.

Anderson shocked us all by hitting nine home runs in 431 plate appearances. The 23-year-old managed a 95 wRC+ despite suffering from swing-and-miss disease (14.7% SwStr%, 27.1% K%). Anderson is a ground ball oriented hitter who makes plus quality contact when he connects. The White Sox insisted on batting him near the top of the lineup despite a horrific OBP. A couple big adjustments could put a 20 homer, 20 stolen base season within reach. He’s a solid late-round flier.

Arcia also contracted swing-and-miss disease. He may be curable. The whiffs were out of character with his minor league track record. A sharp increase in contact rate would let him consistently tap into his modest power and above average speed. Remember, he has Miller Park on his side too.

Polanco and Profar should be well below the radar in most fantasy leagues. Given the right role, Polanco has the tools and actualized talent necessary to provide a league average line in all five categories. Not bad for a should-be-free player. Profar’s been around forever, but he’s still just 23 and lost so much development time. There was a point when he was getting tagged with the “next Trout” label. After his first full healthy year since 2012, Profar may be ready to breakout.

Veteran Surge

In 2016, Eduardo Nunez, Brad Miller, Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Asdrubal Cabrera greatly exceeded expectations. Let’s give a nod to Freddy Galvis and Chris Owings while we’re at it. In many ways, these were unpredictable. If you had asked me if Nunez could hit 16 home runs and steal 40 bases, I would have estimated a 0.01 percent chance. Same goes for a 20 homer, 17 steal season from Galvis. By contrast, the performances of Miller, Semien, Gregorius, Cabrera, and Owings were merely “unlikely.”

With so many veterans busting out in 2016, there aren’t many established players left to take a surprise step forward. I’m tempted to point to Brandon Crawford. He hit 21 home runs in 2015 then declined to 12 home runs last year. He’s a (re)breakout candidate, and he’s also a warning for would-be owners of the 2016 veteran breakouts. Pay for the regressed version.

I’ll have my eyes on Zack Cozart, but only if he stays in Cincinnati. Great American Ballpark is a bandiest of the boxes. Cozart’s high-pull approach could take a leap forward if he lowers his hands. A Brian Dozier-like surge is possible – not 40 home runs but maybe 25 to 30.

Remember Matt Duffy? The Rays were excited to receive him in the Matt Moore trade. While his home park is rough for power, a small uptick fueled by the other AL East parks wouldn’t be shocking. He’s a stretch 15 home run, 15 stolen base threat.

After mashing in 165 plate appearances last season, free agent Stephen Drew should be an intriguing utility option for teams that miss out on Sean Rodriguez. Drew popped eight home runs – a pace of 30 in a full season. And while it’s very unlikely he’ll receive more than 300 plate appearances, he could help fantasy owners in short bursts.

Sometimes, the light clicks on for no discernible reason. Jose Iglesias, Andrelton Simmons, and Adeiny Hechavarria make plenty of contact despite overwhelmingly poor batting lines. There’s no predicting inspiration. Remember, Nunez, Gregorius, and Galvis were like this trio prior to last season. Excluding a few multi-position guys, they were the sixth, 11th, and 17th best shortstops.