For fantasy junkies like me – and probably you – deep keeper and dynasty leagues are the zenith of modern civilization. I’m not here to extol their virtues. It suffices to say that they scratch a certain itch – the one you had as a kid when you were daydreaming about running your own major league club.

These deep formats also have something in common. No matter what, somebody is eventually going to make a horrific-looking trade. However, the way a trade looks on paper can be deceptive. Yesterday, the Cardinals traded a lot for Paul Goldschmidt. Some (ahem, me) might say they dealt too much. They also unmistakably improved their 2019 roster in a way that only minimally weakens their future chances at winning. It’s important to consider how a deal affects competition.

Another consideration is that apparently lopsided trades still work out in the “losing” owner’s favor pretty frequently. I’m going to make up some numbers now. Based on all the trades I’ve seen that are widely panned as unfair but also aren’t clearly unconscionable, I estimate somewhere between 35 to 40 percent of them ultimately favor the loser. From my perspective, the crowds aren’t very wise. So, even though your rival probably gotten more in a sketchy looking swap, it doesn’t mean they’re totally screwed. This is akin to winning a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em after being behind on the flop. It happens all the time.

So, the lede is thoroughly buried. Now why are we here again? To talk about unconscionable trades and the immediate steps a good commissioner should take. While the design of a league should encourage trading – negotiations are half the fun! – too many terrible trades can be ruinous.

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Here is today’s chat transcript which coincided with the big Pat Corbin news.

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Yesterday, I got into a bit of a Twitter tiff about the relative values of Jean Segura and Carlos Santana. My position was that they were secretly much closer in value than people realized. And to make that argument, it was necessary to unveil one of my secrets.

In short, the major league replacement level for shortstops is either 1 WAR (Freddy Galvis, Miguel Rojas, and Jordy Mercer) or 0.5 WAR over half a season (Ehire Adrianza, J.T. Riddle, and Adeiny Hechavarria). So basically, scrubby shortstops produce at a one win pace.

The same analysis for second baseman reveals a comparable one win pace as replacement level. This is further reinforced by the release of Cory Spangenberg by the Padres. He produced 0.6 WAR over 329 plate appearances, yet San Diego clearly believed he had neither a place on their roster nor enough trade value to waste time on the phones. Sounds like he got the replacement level treatment.

Surely this has fantasy implications too.

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Earlier this offseason, I began a series about highly custom leagues. This is the fourth installment. Previous entries covered 2×2 Roto, Split Auctions, and Roto-to-Head. Today we’ll dive into a fresh innovation called Rotating Divisions. It’s exactly what it sounds like.

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The central premise of this article – that I am a bellwether on elite prospects – is rather egotistical. You’ve been warned.

Over the years, one of my most consistent pieces of advice can be boiled down to the following:”y’all crazy about prospects.” I stand by it. You – as in people who aren’t me – need to calm the *&^% down about your prospects.

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Back in December of 2013, in one of my earliest appearances on this site, I pontificated about how to value your last roster spot. I spent… oh my… 1,482 words on a topic that is indisputably of marginal importance. For most fantasy formats, the last player on your roster is incredibly fluid and has a minimal effect. Let’s critique this old behemoth of a post.

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Earlier this offseason, I kicked off a series about highly custom leagues. This is the third installment. Previous entries covered 2×2 Roto and Split Auctions. Today we’ll dive into a hybrid roto league with head-to-head playoffs. I’ve dubbed it Roto-To-Head which is not a sex act and is a pretty dumb name. Feel free to suggest alternatives!

This format is semi-supported by FanTrax.

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We have a somewhat controversial topic on the docket for today’s Fantasy Baseball Strategy 204 session: is it better to have an accurate or unique approach to player valuation? If you read the title, you’ll notice I’ve already led with the lede. I regularly advocate for taking the path least traveled by your rivals. Whether that requires a zig, a zag, or some other three-letter nonsense, it’s so much easier to create value when you aren’t competing for the same resources in the same way.

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Did you know some people don’t like to be referred to as a “Twitter person.” On that note, Twitter person Bradley Newman created a poll asking the wild reaches of the baseballverse to choose Gerrit Cole or Aaron Nola for 2019. The poll received considerable attention thanks to an assist from Paul Sporer and Justin Mason. The results, you’ll see in a moment, are shocking.

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Months ago – possibly sometime late July to mid-August – Bill James tweeted about Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. The topic: that anybody who had preferred Correa to Bregman entering this season was a fool. James was talking in a real baseball sense, but I’m sure the thought would have extended to fantasy baseball.

In response, I took a quick peek at both players’ priors, ignoring their 2018 production altogether. I determined they were roughly four win players. So, this being on twitter*, I called out James with my evidence. In short, it was possible to prefer Bregman, but Correa’s longer track record and similar projection were seemingly favorable. James called me a dumdum in response – the worst kind of sphere-shaped lollipop. That was the extent of his rebuttal.

*One thing you gotta love about Twitter… I, a glorified blogger, can walk up to Bill James, a founding father of sabermetrics, and tell him he’s wrong. And receive a banal retort in response.

More recently, I’m seeing a growing tide of people lamenting the mistake of selecting Correa in the late-first round of 2018 drafts. His downfall, despite being caused by a new injury(s), was somehow predictable. As far as I’m concerned, my colleagues are drawing the wrong conclusion.

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