Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/4/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, sorry about the delay. I guess some part of me knew a simple doctor appointment would take 2 hours

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a moment.

Brad Johnson: Alright, let’s do this

Trevor: How many prospects is too many for an ottoneu team attempting to contend?

Brad Johnson: As is often the case, it really depends on context. I often operate with no more than 1-3.

Brad Johnson: I mostly acquire mine over the offseason for players I can no longer afford to keep. I’ll also try to scrounge whatever $1 guys get left over in the draft. I got Acuna and Soto this way, but that was pure luck.

Brad Johnson: Usually I just get guys I later cut

Worst Trade Ever: just had a trade go down in a 30 team league of Alex Bregman for Maikel Franco and Dylan Cease…..wtf

Brad Johnson: Yep, that’s pretty baffling

Brad Johnson: As commissioner, I would consider replacing the owner he dealt Bregman

Brad Johnson: At least based on this one data point. If I know they’re generally a decent owner and just made one weird choice, then I could just shrug and curse myself for not being in the way

Brad Johnson: fwiw, the DTBNL (the dynasty league I mentioned above this chat) has 2 ways of dealing with this

Brad Johnson: first, there’s a 24 hour period for revoking trades

Brad Johnson: any reason

Brad Johnson: getting a much better offer after the fact is a valid reason

Brad Johnson: you do have to wait 10 days for the players to be eligible for trading if you cancel a deal, but that’s not an issue in the offseason

Brad Johnson: The second rule is basically what I described above. If I think you can’t competently run a team, I’ll pair you with a co-owner who can or replace you.

Brad Johnson: It’s a little rough, but incompetent owners ruin the game for everyone

Brad Johnson: The sharkiest owner is always the one to exploit them

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure this Bregman trade would trigger that for me, but it’s close enough to think about it

Brad Johnson: Moving along…

Guest: Mike Clevinger is a stud. That is all.

Bob: You are a fan of stars and scrubs. With less workhorse starting pitching nowadays, does that help or hurt S&S?

Brad Johnson: Helps, although it massively complicates allocations to hitters and pitchers in auction leagues

Brad Johnson: Snake drafts naturally push you to pick some premium pitchers

Brad Johnson: Auctions sometimes lead me away from drafting any pitching

Brad Johnson: I’ll grab bargain stud bats then plan to trade later

Brad Johnson: But in this meta with very few bulk, stud pitchers, it’s very hard to acquire them at a $1 for $1 rate

Brad Johnson: And using only the short start guys is a very risky approach

Brad Johnson: All told, it’s never been harder to craft a one-size-fits-all strategy

Brad Johnson: It’s a great meta for adaptable owners

NDinzy: Do you see a bounce-back coming for Votto? I mean, this guy is one of the most professional hitters in baseball, but he’s hitting those mid-30’s…

Brad Johnson: I do see some bounce in his future. Basically, a few doubles going over the fence. Targeting about 20 to 25 home runs.

Brad Johnson: Usual elite OBP

Brad Johnson: Big run production

Brad Johnson: Maybe a handful of SB if he’s feeling frisky

Brad Johnson: I’m targeting him in dynasty and deep keepers as a potential bargain – so far no dice

Robby: I recall you’re not a huge Mondesi believer. But in a dynasty/keeper where hitters have more value, would you rather have Mondesi or say Severino?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I wouldn’t say I’m not a big Mondesi believer though

Brad Johnson: I just think some people are going a little crazy

Brad Johnson: It’s truer to say I’m very adverse to paying for elite pitching when I can take a comparably talented hitter instead

Brad Johnson: The hitter, on average, will perform at a high level for much longer than the pitcher

NDinzy: Is Max Muncy closer to prime Joey Bats or prime Mark Trumbo, in your very educated opinion?

Brad Johnson: These aren’t the sharpest comps in my opinion, but he’s kind of Bautista-like with Trumbo’s strikeout rate or Trumbo-like with Bautista’s walk rate

Dave in London: Are you, like me, concerned about taking on a high-priced SP contract before draft day, given how often starters get injured? Would you rather have the spending flexibility on draft day?

Brad Johnson: Yes. I’m always careful about this. It’s not a must-avoid situation though

Brad Johnson: For example, in the Screw Cancer ottoneu league, I’m trying to add a ~$50 quality SP because that’s what my team needs as the final piece, I have payroll room to add it, and this is my best chance to get it without giving up more than complementary pieces

Goldy: Do you think I’ll get traded and if so do you think Christian Walker or Kevin Cron will be the main beneficiary?

Brad Johnson: I do think he’ll be traded. I don’t think we can guess the beneficiary yet

Brad Johnson: Walker and Cron will likely compete with 2 or 3 other guys

diadem: How big a hit did McNeil take with the Cano signing?  How big a plus did N Wiliams get with the Segura signing?

Brad Johnson: I assume that’s Nick Williams and I’m not forgetting somebody…

Brad Johnson: I don’t see how this really affect him. Hoskins was moving back to 1B with or without Santana on the roster. Williams is now in a battle with Herrera, Quinn, and Altherr for what will likely be 2 spots. Even if they don’t land Bryce Harper, they’ll either sign a different OFer or trade for one.

Brad Johnson: I’d bet on Nick Williams being in a different uniform by Opening Day

Brad Johnson: As for McNeil… let’s see how it plays out

Brad Johnson: I would not be shocked to see Cano at 1B, McNeil at 2B, and Alonso/Smith withering on the vine.

Brad Johnson: That’s a peak LOLMets play

Brad Johnson: Pretty decent chance he simply spots Cano and Frazier at 2B and 3B until the inevitable injury.

Brad Johnson: Or gets traded.

Guest: Happ or Holland for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Happ. Holland should be more easily accessible on waivers in 12-team mixed formats

John: Will Charlie Morton fly under the radar as much in Fantasy as he seems to be in free agency?

Brad Johnson: Possibly. Even in redraft settings, the pernicious retirement rumors seem to unfairly halve his value.

Brad Johnson: While I’d like to cash out my shares, I got ’em for nothing and he’s still providing near-ace value

Brad Johnson: So I’m not too sad about it

Quinn: How much money do you normally like bringing into ottoneu drafts after the cut down? How many roster spots?

Brad Johnson: I bring about $1.5 per open roster spot. Usually drafting 10 to 22 players.

TJ Maxx Muncy: Can Muncy duplicate last year?  In other words is Muncy (rd 23) worth a keep in a 12 HtH where we keep five at -2 rounds, but can only keep one in the first 5 rounds?  My other keepers are Judge (5), Nola (9), Correa (17), Vladito (23).  My other options are Ohtani (8), Mallex Smith (18), Vazquez (21), or Nimmo (23).  I’m worried that the Dodgers think he’s just a platoon guy.

Brad Johnson: Unless there’s a keeper cap (you only mention the first 5 rounds), he’s a big value at that price

Brad Johnson: Sure, there’s a chance it doesn’t work out, but it’s much more likely he provides rnd 10 or better value.

John: What other moves do you see the Texas Rangers making this offseason?

Brad Johnson: I take it you’re a fan of theirs?

Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, Texas is going to be playing in the leftovers pool. As we haven’t seen free agency get moving yet, it’s far soon to prognosticate what will fall to the Rangers

Ben: Hey Brad,

Brad Johnson: Yo

Brad Johnson: (this joke never gets old. To me anyway)

Ben: Hey Brad, remind us again how to be considered for DTBNL? Thanks

Brad Johnson: It’s a patron-only league so you have to be a patron. Then all you have to do is go to the sign up post and follow the link. Message me if you have any questions or concerns.

Brad Johnson: If you really don’t want to be a patron, co-owners are not required to be patrons. So I could try to set you up with one of the other owners. But it’s more fun to be the primary, no?

brian: Do you take pitching when everyone else does, or do you go for hitting during the pitching run happens?

Brad Johnson: This is another it depends. It’s so situational

Roger: If you were a GM starting a franchise, would you rather have (1) Cano, Diaz, Zunino, Paxton, Segura, and Colome, or (2) Gordon, Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich?

Brad Johnson: EZ Yelich/Stanton

Brad Johnson: I assume the contracts are still attached?

Brad Johnson: I’m playing it that way

brian: Is an ace mandatory nowadays, or can you bridge it with quality relief/breakouts?

Brad Johnson: You can try, but boy is that a difficult route to take

Brad Johnson: You better win every hitting category

Brad Johnson: Which, incidentally, is one of my go-to strategies

Angels: Who besides Trout, if anyone, should be considered from the Angels?

Brad Johnson: Ohtani, JUpton, Simmons, Calhoun, Cozart, Fletcher, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, maybe Pena

Brad Johnson: We’re talking 12 team mixed, right?

Brad Johnson: Don’t get me started on the bullpen

Brad Johnson: At least Mike Scioscia is gone

Guest: How should I value Chris Sale this season in terms of the shoulder and potential rest?

Brad Johnson: Based on the popular reaction to my Chris Sale takes, I should not advise you on this subject

Brad Johnson: And again, it’s very context dependent. I’m on the record as saying Sale should only cost some young rebound-type assets. I think I suggested Bradley Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez, and Odubel Herrera for him.

Brad Johnson: But that’s for 20-team dynasty

Brad Johnson: In a shallower format, I’m buying almost as if nothing is wrong

Crawdad: How to you see JP Crawford’s new home impacting his fantasy value

Brad Johnson: Huge boost in the short term. He’ll be set free finally. And he’s quite good.

Brad Johnson: Long term, he loses the EZ Citizen Bank Park homers

Brad Johnson: And his power is a fringy enough tool that he probably needed the park to get to 20 bombs

Brad Johnson: But… at Safeco he might stop overswinging which is a problem he had at times in Philly

Brad Johnson: Then he can be his best version of himself which might be Placido Polanco-like

Michael G. Scott: 10 team, keep 3 forever, points league. Is it worth it to trade my Judge plus a 3rd round pick for his Soto and a 2nd round pick?

Brad Johnson: I think you can make that trade. It’s a blockbuster. It’s 10-team though so there’s no need to worry about age. And personally, I’d go with Judge.

Brad Johnson: But if you like Soto more, there’s nothing wrong with choosing him instead

T-Dog: What are your thoughts on Marco Gonzales as a fantasy SP next year and long term?

Brad Johnson: You know, I’m pretty up in the air on him

Brad Johnson: I got him as a throw-in to my Vladito acquisition

Brad Johnson: I have to figure out what to do with him

Brad Johnson: Here’s that Vladito piece if you missed it – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/brad-buys-vladito/

T-Dog: In a dynasty league, would you move J Adell and N Lowe for J Donaldson, all things being equal?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Unless we’re maybe talking 10 team dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Adell is worth way more than the final shambling years of Donaldson’s career

Brad Johnson: I think Lowe for Donaldson and a small throw-in might be reasonable in 20-team dynasty

Brad Johnson: A general rule of thumb, the deeper the league, the more valuable a prospect

Peter: Shallow 5×5 roto, no $ – last keeper is down to Stanton, Baez or Kluber.  Leaning Stanton?

Brad Johnson: Yea I think so

Brad Johnson: Though I would consider projected HR and SB totals from my other keepers

Brad Johnson: If you have a good base of SB, then it’s definitely Stanton

Brad Johnson: If you have no SB, then you have to think about Baez

HappyFunBall: Other than Mondesi, who are a handful of guys who there’s just no way you’re ever going to get them given current (over)pricing?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I’m not out on crazy-priced Mondesi

Brad Johnson: I got Buxton at his crazy 60 ADP once last season because his projection was the perfect fit for my roster at that point

Brad Johnson: Granted, I probably didn’t win that league because I picked Buxton

Brad Johnson: But that was beyond a worst case scenario.

Brad Johnson: N=1

Matt W: What’s the change in valuation for Cano after the move?

Brad Johnson: It’s a minus. He can’t have any “rest” games at DH now and CitiField is death to hitters

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t fuss about the changed context too much

Dave in London: Is batting average the new undervalued asset in fantasy baseball? With so many batters hitting for low average, it would seem like low-power but high-average hitters go for cheap prices.

Brad Johnson: I’ve tried toying with this, but the math never works out. I do like streaming Joe Mauer types

Brad Johnson: The problem is those no HR, no SB guys usually lack run production

Brad Johnson: Your best case scenario looks something like 2018 Nick Markakis

Brad Johnson: Which is a fine get for free. But the median is only playable as a fill-in

Zesty Sauce: Is Eavoldi part of The Blob?  Or better than that?

Brad Johnson: I’ll call him early Blob. I wonder what Sporer thinks?

Purple Mays Haze: If Goldy gets moved, does that mean….Christian Walker is the 1B to own from Arizona?

Brad Johnson: Not necessarily

Brad Johnson: But that’s one of the first places they’ll look if a free agent doesn’t land in their lap for nothing (which is very possible)

Martin Brody: Christin Stewart comp? What type of value does he have in points leagues (BB = 2 points)

Brad Johnson: I barely watched the Tigers post-call up so I need to go back and watch

Brad Johnson: I think the hope is something Edwin Encarnacion-like

Brad Johnson: He seemingly took a step forward in plate approach last season which is always encouraging

Brad Johnson: He’s a guy I’m trying (unsuccessfully) to acquire

Purple Mays Haze: Re your dynasty hitting vs pitching comments, would you rather have Berrios or Segura? (But maybe because of the high MI replacement value, it would be the 4-year-younger pitcher…?)

Brad Johnson: That’s a situational decision for me.

Brad Johnson: I think Berrios carries enough name value to go that direction for now

Brad Johnson: I might try to trade him with something for something Ace-ish

A Random Dude: Someone just tried to tell me Peter Alonso is a top 10 fantasy prospect.   …I don’t even.

Brad Johnson: This is squintably true actually

Brad Johnson: He’s probably similar to 2018 Rhys Hoskins

Brad Johnson: Depending on the depth of your league, that could be top 10

Brad Johnson: He’s better in shallower formats due to proximity

Purple Mays Haze: Roster Resource has Touki as the Atlanta 5th SP. Based on the likelihood that the Braves sign an SP (pushing TT to the pen?), would you rather take Michael Pineda?

Brad Johnson: I’m not a big Touki believer yet

Brad Johnson: Not that I’m a fan of Pineda either

Brad Johnson: In fact, give me Touki in any kind of scenario where he might be a future keeper

Brad Johnson: Probably Pineda in a redraft

Nick: Acuna or Soto for my dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: Acuna but it’s pretty close

Brad Johnson: Soto is probably a “better” hitter in a way that isn’t well-captured by fantasy stats

Brad Johnson: Acuna fills the spreadsheet better

Questions Abound: Ryon Healy loses almost all his value after the M’s got Santana, right?

Brad Johnson: Santana has almost no bearing on Ryon Healy – who already had no value in basically all formats

Brad Johnson: If Santana is still on the M’s roster by the start of the season, I’ll eat something hat shaped

Questions Abound: Corbin to Nats confirmed by Morosi

Brad Johnson: That’s surprising

Purple Mays Haze: Corbin to Nats, 6 years. Happ to Yankees more likely now?

Brad Johnson: Yes.

ElGuapo: Curious on your view of Luis Urias long term. His minor league career high in SBs is 10. If he isn’t hitting for power doesn’t he have to hit .350 every year and have to be in a good lineup to be a starting caliber 2B in 10/12 team leagues?

Brad Johnson: I think Urias will develop decent power to go with a high average

Brad Johnson: He’s a little bit like JP Crawford in terms of expected output

Questions Abound: What is the best fantasy league to join if a)you like advanced stats and b)you’re not a complete noob at fantasy?

Brad Johnson: Ottoneu!

Brad Johnson: Play FGpts

HappyFunBall: Corbin = 6/140, according to Heyman

Brad Johnson: Good for him. This is also a best case scenario for his fantasy owners. He doesn’t have to deal with the AL East parks or Citizen’s Bank

Brad Johnson: Well, maybe a handful of starts

Brad Johnson: But not more than half!

Brad Johnson: The NL East will be a competitive division though

John W.: Merrifield or S.Marte next year in a 16tm roto with OBP instead of AVG. I’d lean Merrifield, but they appear close. Thanks Brad!

Brad Johnson: I lean that way too, it’s not a strong preference, and I wonder how much I’m affected by Marte’s missed time

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s actually any more likely to miss time than Merrifield in 2019

ElGuapo: At the risk of spending too much time on Charlie Morton don’t you think it’s pretty big red flag when a smart team like the Astros chooses not to give him a qualifying offer? He had shoulder issues last year and one would figure the Astros have better information than we do on his injuries.

Brad Johnson: Not really. I think the consensus is that he can be signed for less than the QO amount, and the Astros probably wanted to be a little more flexible with that cash

Brad Johnson: They’re swimming in pitching as it is, and they’ll sign at least one starter

Brad Johnson: So thats Verl, Cole, Framber, James, Peacock, McHugh, and Whitley as in house options

Brad Johnson: Plus whoever they sign

Brad Johnson: And I think it’s 100% he would have accepted the QO

Bill: Zach Eflin or Luke Weaver for an NL only keep forever league?

Brad Johnson: EZ Weaver for me

Brad Johnson: Also, if you’re making this choice today, the Phillies are very likely to trade Eflin

Brad Johnson: And let’s call it a 50/50 chance he lands in the AL…

Hugh: Aside from Stewart, Alonso and Urias, who were just mentioned, who are some minor eligible (under 130 ABs) hitters who you think can make an impact this year?

Brad Johnson: This is a great question, but I’m underprepared to answer it

Brad Johnson: I’ll scan for some who jump off the page

Brad Johnson: Willie Calhoun could rebound from whatever happened to him

Brad Johnson: Vogelbach

Brad Johnson: Astudillo

Brad Johnson: Danny jansen

Brad Johnson: Barreto

Brad Johnson: Peter O’Brien

Brad Johnson: Rowdy

Brad Johnson: Kyle tucker

Brad Johnson: Robles

Brad Johnson: Mejia

Brad Johnson: Walker

Brad Johnson: Hampson

Brad Johnson: Those are the guys who jump off the page between 20 and 130 PA

Purple Mays Haze: When is Keston Hiura the Brewer’s 2B? May 1st?

Brad Johnson: I’m conservative with these things. I think we’re looking at 2020

Brad Johnson: Unless they’re really struggling with the position

Brad Johnson: which I see no reason for that to happen

Brad Johnson: There are so many (ostensibly) cheap, really good 2B on the market

Brad Johnson: More than there are teams

rpo: First time Ottoneu owner, is $25 a keepable price for Price or Starling Marte (generally)?

Brad Johnson: FGpts? I’d deal Marte

Brad Johnson: You probably can’t find a trade for Price, but I think that’s about par value for him

Brad Johnson: You can get similar quality but less reliable pitcher for under $10

Brad Johnson: So it depends on what’s available

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: The NL East arm race is off to a scorching start

Brad Johnson: The Marlins could have been involved too if they didn’t torpedo their roster

Brad Johnson: They would have been very competitive in the division last season if they simply added some cheap pitching like Cahill and Holland

Brad Johnson: Time for me to start wrapping up folks

Let’s Go Crazy: Assuming Winker’s shoulder is healthy, his 2019 > Mondesi’s 2019 for fantasy, even more so when draft value is accounted for

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Mondesi is a much better bet than Winker

Brad Johnson: And his shoulder injury usually takes a long time to fully heal

Brad Johnson: see Michael Conforto

Brad Johnson: Also, pick Michael Conforto

Matt W: Natinals a better landing spot for Corbin than Yankees or Phils, no?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely

Billy Bathhouse: Matt Carpenter or Carlos Martinez in an OBP/QS keeper league

Brad Johnson: Just for 2019? Carp for sure

Brad Johnson: But will he be around in 2022? Probably not. Good chance CMart is still something in the future (all usual pitcher caveats apply)

Matt W: Suarez or Jupton at the same price in 2019?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Suarez

Brad Johnson: That’s EZ for me, but I’ve been a Suarez truther since his prospect days

Pip: I traded a $7 Knebel for $10 Mondessi. Good trade? I already have Vasquez and Morrow.

Brad Johnson: Amazing swap

Rick: Jeff Samardzija….ignore 2018 or the beginning of the end?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think we can ignore, but I’ll try a flier on him in 12-mixed

Brandon Lowe: Is there a path to playing time for me next year? 28 HR’s and a 10%+ BB rate across 3 levels seems valuable with playing time

Brad Johnson: Sure, but the Rays love to juggle workloads and there are a lot of red flags in Lowe’s numbers

Brad Johnson: Starting with a ludicrous 17.6 percent SwStr%

Craig: So nats are out on Harper, good news for Robles, right?

Craig: Well, they are probably out on Harper after paying $140 million to Corbin.

Brad Johnson: I have to assume so

Brad Johnson: Going after Harper never made much sense for them. It’s an inefficient use of resources.

Brad Johnson: What they should do is turn around and trade for Goldschmidt

Brad Johnson: run an OF of Eaton, Robles, Soto, Taylor, and a cheap free agent vet (Maybin?)

Brad Johnson: And if they’re really feeling spendy, get DJLM for 2B. Or if not, Kinsler

Brad Johnson: So Rendon, Turner, Kinsler/DJLM, Goldy around the horn

Brad Johnson: Difo backing up everything

Brad Johnson: Zimmerman withering on the bench (who cares)

Billy Bathhouse: How many PAs apiece can we expect from Danny Jansen and Russ Martin?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Martin’s going to start the year on the club. If he does, I bet he sees more time in the infield than catcher

Brad Johnson: So call it 400 each?

Dude: Who has a better 2019: Kepler, Tapia, or Happ?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Kepler

Brad Johnson: A better answer is “not Tapia”

Brad Johnson: As I don’t think he’ll start without a lot of injury help

Brad Johnson: If the Rockies believed in him at all, he would have been playing a long time ago

Purple Mays Haze: Daily league: Conforto, Schwarber, Joc, or Grichuk?

Brad Johnson: EZ Conforto

Brad Johnson: on that note, it’s time to run. Good game folks

Brad Johnson: I’m going to move the stuff I hyped here:

Brad Johnson: The Dynasty To Be Named Later (DTBNL) has seven open slots. A beta constitution is available for review. And if you’re a patron, you can join immediately. I’m very proud of the overall league design which I expect to iron out several of the shortcomings I find with most 20-team dynasty leagues. Also of note, we have Discord integration for trade talks.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/22968985 – constitution
https://www.patreon.com/posts/22957345 – to join (patron-only)

Item number two is a custom fantasy game with a $50 prize named the Rule 5 Draft and Follow. – https://www.patreon.com/posts/22979594

The third piece on the agenda is a patron-only article entitled “The Most Valuable Hidden Stat On FanGraphs – And How To Access It.” – https://www.patreon.com/posts/23024094