I made a mistake in my latest auction draft. A rookie mistake. I left money on the table. You know what, though — I’m not too worried about it. It was a natural risk that was bred from a few of my main tenets. Here are some of those personal rules — which I may have to alter now that I’m going public — and then I’ll discuss how implementing the rules went in yesterday’s particular draft.

1) Throw guys you don’t want. Bid on them a little bit so people don’t know that you’re throwing guys you don’t want. Watch them spend money on players you don’t want.

2) Budget two dollars for every bench spot. This creates end-game flexibility. You’ll be able to steal everyone’s one-dollar picks.

3) Compare early results for stars to your auction value spreadsheet. Adjust your plan accordingly.

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Drafts be drafting. Let’s make this a fantasy-centered chat — even if beer and sandwiches and real baseball will always be at home in my chats — and get to the meat of it all. I’ll be here at 1230, and I promise… there will be (a) lightning (round).

We’ve got your consensus outfielder ranks, but it helps to put guys in tiers, especially for your NL-only players out there. So, just to make sure we have you covered, here are your National League Outfielder tiers.

All is well here. Shortstops get one guy in the top tier and outfielders in the National League alone get four. How do you like your 30/30 outfielder served?
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When, in the course of formulating the starting pitcher consensus ranks for the 2012 fantasy baseball season, it becomes necessary to rank a relief pitcher as as starting pitcher before he makes start number one in the new season, a decent respect to the opinions of RotoGraphs readership requires that a little more attention be paid to the causes that led to the exclusion of said starter-slash-relief pitchers from the rankings — and how they’d be ranked otherwise.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all pitchers are mostly divided into two groups; that they are thus endowed by the game with different kinds of value and to be judged separately; that inherent to each value is the pursuit of saves or wins but not usually both; that it is much more difficult to gain starting pitcher eligibility and actually start than it is to be a starter-eligible reliever; that the penalties associated from moving from the bullpen to the rotation (17% degradation in strikeout walk and home run rate, as well as a .7-2 mph drop in fastball velocity, on average) often make newly-minted relievers-turned-starters a shaky proposition; that therefore most years it makes most sense to rank reliever-eligible pitchers with the relievers.

But whenever any form or ranking encounters a destructive force — as it has this year in the form of Men like Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz, and Chris Sale — it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish the old ways and to institute a new form of rankings.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Matt Moore. Yes, he’s not in here. We’ve been over it. He’s not a starter yet, even though he’ll be a starter later, and so he’s not in there right now. But you know what, we ranked him in our mind pieces, and we got around a 28 all together. So that puts him ahead of Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow on the rankings, and given some uncertainty about his innings (and performance, as much as is the case with any young player) this year, that might be around right. That said, I have no such reservations about his innings, since he managed over 180 last year and could do a full slate this year without bumping up 20%.

The rest of the list? Maybe you like Felix Hernandez more, or Zack Greinke. Or Dan Hudson gets your panties in or out of a bundle. Brandon McCarthy spoke today at the SABR analytics conference and some of you were giving him the stank eye, maybe. I loved Derek Holland last year, but now I’m the one that hates him. I hate Johan Santana more than most non-Mets fans, and I like Tim Stauffer more than most Padres fans perhaps. But maybe no-one caused more consternation than Josh Collmenter — do you believe in deception or not?

And, before you get too upset about the rankings at the bottom, know this: by the time you get down there, it’s all approximation. Treat that as a list of pitchers we like in deep leagues. It’s better than assuming that we really think that Jerome Williams is demonstrably better that Jorge De La Rosa.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

After all the positions with all the disagreement, we hit one of the most difficult positions to fill… and we all agree. I mean, look at Alex Avila, who will most probably regress off of his numbers from last year — number eight right across the board. Apparently, I ‘love’ Mr. K, J.P. Arencibia, and showed that love by ranking him a full two spots ahead of everyone else. Even Jonathan Lucroy, who appears halfway down the list hand has very moderate upside, shows up around the same place on everyone’s list.

So which catcher inspired the most disagreement? Maybe it’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who finally paired a nice batting average on balls in play with his low-contact approach last year. Will he fend off Ryan Lavarnway (who didn’t quite play enough catcher to be a catcher this year) another season? We can’t seem to agree on John Buck, but maybe that’s because some of us choose to focus on how far away the new park’s walls are, and some of us choose to focus on how much shorter the walls are in that new left field. Some of us think Devin Mesoraco is going to take that job and run, some of us think that Ryan Hanigan will charm his veteran-loving manager into most of the playing time. Oh, and finally (mercifully), the Mets writer on staff liked the Mets player a little more than the rest of the rankers. Phew.

Catch yourself a catcher.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Oh Dee Gordon! Expect more Dee Gordon coverage. Because that guy is a buck-twenty-five soaking wet, can’t take a walk to save his life, and might have problems getting out of a paper bag with a bat. But he’s got elite speed and plays shortstop, so he’ll be an important player worth considering from different angles. Emilio Bonifacio might not actually play the position in real life, but he can join this particular party.

The rest of the list features a lot of agreement, even if some of us like Tyler Pastornicky a little more than others. Jhonny Peralta could regress and still be pretty valuable, so it’s not surprising that he showed up in different slots on the list. Oh, and look at this — the Mets fan once again hates on the Mets guy on the rankings. Something something self-hatred. But Ruben Tejada has maybe .280/20 upside, and even if Ryan Theriot (lite) with a glove is useful for a Major League team, it might not be great for your fantasy team.

The shortstops!

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

The main hullabaloo will probably be about the relievers-turned-starters. There’s a bit of a damned-if-you-do damned-if-you-don’t thing going on. If you don’t rank the reliever/starters because they won’t be traditional relievers getting saves, then those pitchers will fall out of the player ranking universe for the most part. Most of them don’t have ‘starter’ eligibility. Add to that the difficulty of projecting a dominant reliever into a new role, and, well, you get a difficult situation. So that’s what happened with Matt Moore, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz and Cory Luebke.

As for the traditional relievers, there’s a lot of agreement. Well, Zimmerman thinks the magic will run out for Mariano Rivera this year, Podhorzer hates Heath Bell, half of us thought J.J. Putz would stay healthy and half of us thought he’d crap out again, Zimmerman put Kenley Jansen right into the closer’s role while the rest of us were more cautious, and Carlos Marmol inspired some differing opinions.

The relievers!

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Our consensus ranks may have suffered a bit from positional shenanigans. Sure, you can rank Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana at first base, but why would you ever play them there? Is Billy Butler a first baseman in your league?

When we all ranked a guy, we agreed for the most part — well one of us really likes something about Michael Cuddyer that the rest of us don’t see. And Paul Goldschmidt inspires consternation wherever he goes, so it was no surprise that he wasn’t ranked the same by all of us. But Carlos Lee? Must be something about .270 and 18 homers at first base that tickles Podhorzer’s fancy. Then again, he liked James Loney more than the rest of us too.

Take a look and pick your poison.

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