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Should We Believe in Jose Ramirez?

 

As we begin to approach the 2017 season, one of the larger wild cards at the third base position is Cleveland Indians third sacker Jose Ramirez. While Ramirez is coming off of a remarkable season that saw him excel in a variety of offensive aspects, there isn’t a tremendous basis for it at the Major League level. Should we expect that 2016 will become more of the norm than his previous big league stints, or is a regression in the cards for one of the breakout stars of last season?

Prior to 2016, Ramirez spent a good chunk of time at the Major League level in both 2014 and 2015, with plate appearance totals of 266 and 355, respectively. Neither appearance saw him justify consistent big league time, especially in a 2015 season where he hit only .219 and reached base at a paltry .291 clip. Of course, his .232 batting average on balls in play didn’t exactly help, but his park-adjusted offense still came in 27 points below league average.

The 2016 season represented an entirely different situation for Ramirez. His line featured marks of .312/.363/.462/.825. That batting average was tops among qualifying third basemen, while his OBP ranked fifth among that group. After a season in which he posted a wRC+ of 73, he was able to bring that figure all the way up to 122, which ranked 10th among that same group. While he’s not a tremendous power threat, he demonstrated an ability to consistently reach base while making things happen on the basepaths, where he recorded 22 steals on the season.

So what exactly should we be expecting from Ramirez moving forward?

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The Overwhelming Dominance of Josh Donaldson

With all of the offensive talent oozing from the third base position, it’s easy to forget to appreciate just how dominant some of the upper tier players at the hot corner actually are. In no case may this be more true than that of Josh Donaldson. Not that folks don’t recognize that Donaldson is one of the premier players in baseball, but at the same time, it’s easy to overlook just how good he’s actually be in the last couple of years. The lull and lack of news in January gives us a chance to explore just that.

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The Return of Mike Moustakas

If there was one thing that made me sad, as far as the third base position is concerned, in 2016, it was a decided lack of Mike Moustakas. A long-time favorite of mine that had finally established himself among the more reliable options at the hot corner, Moose was only able to notch 113 plate appearances before a torn ACL at the end of May put an end to his season far too early. As we crawl ever closer to the spring, Moustakas’ return is one thing that I’ll be keeping an eye on when the Kansas City Royals arrive in Arizona.

It’ll be interesting to see how Moustakas transitions back into regular playing time at third base after recovering from an injury of that severity. With a shade under eight months of recovery by the time the season rolls around, one would expect that he’ll be back to full strength when the games begin to matter. And given the trends that he was displaying in 2015 and to start 2016, there isn’t any reason to think that he can’t pick up right where he left off and turn in a strong return in 2017.

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Is Jake Lamb’s value still in question?

When Torey Lovullo was hired as manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks, one of the early remarks that was made centered around Jake Lamb. In that, Lovullo stated that Lamb would be the team’s everyday third baseman, something that apparently needed clarification after a career year in 2016. While it may not have been a necessary question to answer, after Lamb turned in an explosive year at the plate, it certainly spurred my thinking as to whether or not Lamb is as valuable an entity on the fantasy side of things as some (read: me) might think he is.

There are a few interesting elements of Lamb’s 2016 to be discussed. He experienced a major surge in power brought about by some swing changes and a largely healthy season. He struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, but was also relatively limited in his opportunities against southpaws. He also tailed off relatively seriously in the second half of the season, with his health again limiting his performance at the plate. There are some things to be rectified in his game, certainly, but we’re looking at a player that, if completely healthy in 2017, could be a tremendously valuable entity at the third base position.

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Luis Valbuena: Future New York Yankee?

As thin as this free agent class of the winter of 2016-17 is, collectively, the third base group represents an especially barren group among the positions, something that I covered a couple of weeks ago. Justin Turner is obviously the only true prize of the bunch, but I did also note that Luis Valbuena could be an intriguing option for a number of teams, due to the pop and approach that he brings, as well as his oft-noted versatility. As it would turn out, early suitors are already emerging, with the New York Yankees appearing to be at the front of the line for the 31-year-old infielder.

It’s interesting that the Yankees would be after Valbuena as an option, especially given that he’s believed to be pursuing a situation where he has an opportunity to get regular starts, even if those starts don’t come at the hot corner. The Yankees wouldn’t appear to be that opportunity, with Chase Headley and Starlin Castro currently locked into third and second base, respectively.

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Anthony Rendon’s Comeback Season

One player that probably didn’t get far enough coverage from me throughout the 2016 season was Anthony Rendon. I was always aware of the kind of season that he was having, but there just never seemed to be a spot to fit something in about him without it seeming clunky. But with Rendon taking home National League Comeback Player of the Year honors, courtesy of MLB.com writers, now seems like as good a time as any to examine the year that he had.

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Examining the Barren Third Base Free Agent Market

It’s been widely known since last winter that this free agent class would be a pretty brutal one, with much of the legitimately intriguing hot stove action taking place on the trade front. Outside of a couple of marquee names available, it’s more spare parts than anything to be had without having to surrender assets. This is especially true as it relates to third base, perhaps to the most extreme extent.

Only seven players that would fall under the third base category are set to hit the free agent market:

If you’re looking for a stopgap third baseman who can log a fair amount of games at the position and provide legitimate value, that number decreases even more. In fact, we’re talking about a list that probably only includes a small trio of this group: Hill, Valbuena, and, the only legitimate prize of the group, Justin Turner. And even that’s stretching it a bit, as only Turner had enough at-bats to qualify among the offensive leaders at the position in 2016.

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An Ode to Former Third Baseman Matt Carpenter

As many surely are, I’m finding it particularly difficult to write about baseball today. And it’ll be a while before the sting of the events of November 8th wears off. More than four years, probably. But in this instance, I must press on. And since we’re likely saying goodbye to a lot of things that we enjoy about the United States (in the most dramatic sense possible), it’s probably appropriate to say goodbye to someone that I’ve really come to admire as a third baseman in Matt Carpenter.

Not that Carpenter is disappearing from the St. Louis Cardinals in the way that many of our American principles are set to disappear from mainstream society. But the Cardinals announced earlier this week that he’d likely become the Cards’ everyday first baseman in 2017. This was a transition that became more apparent down the stretch this past year, with Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, and Jhonny Peralta set to make up the remainder of the infield by the time next season rolls around.

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World Series Game 7 Primer: Kris Bryant vs. Jose Ramirez

Regardless of the events that transpire on Wednesday night in Cleveland, the evening will conclude with a 2016 Champion of Major League Baseball being crowned. The elation that one club and its fans will experience with an extensive drought ending will only be matched in its intensity by the devastation felt by the club and the fans on the other side at seeing their own drought continue. As such, I would be remiss if I didn’t touch on and reflect on the third base matchup that the evening will entail.

Game 7 will feature the overwhelming favorite for the National League Most Valuable Player award in Kris Bryant, while his counterpart, Jose Ramirez, has ridden a breakout regular season to a key role on this gritty Cleveland squad. Bryant represents the best of the best at the hot corner. He’s a member of the elite. Ramirez was mired in an obscure role until Michael Brantley’s injury allowed him an opportunity to crack the everyday lineup. He’s seized that opportunity by utilizing his high contact and baserunning abilities, as well as some clutch play.

While the overall skill set and season statistics obviously favor Bryant, in glaringly obvious fashion, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how each performs at the most strenuous point of the game’s brightest stage. Across a nine inning game, we’re talking about the most minuscule of sample sizes. But it’s still worth wondering what challenges each could present for his opponent, particularly in regard to their ability to make contact, their ability to make strong contact, and the threat that they represent on the bases.

Here’s a broader overview of their regular season performances.

OBP OPS ISO K% BB% wRC+ Off WAR
Kris Bryant .385 .939 .262 22.0 10.7 149 49.1 8.4
Jose Ramirez .363 .825 .150 10.0 7.1 122 24.9 4.8

In some regards, they’re not quite as far apart as one might initially think. Both are able to reach base at a really nice clip, but what Ramirez has going for him is his ability to get on base and utilize that speed, while striking out a at a far lower rate. Whereas Bryant represents the significantly more impactful bat in the power game. Ramirez embodies that scrappy type of play that has become the Cleveland narrative. As such, he won’t be an easy out at any point for Kyle Hendricks, especially with his success against the changeup. It’ll be interesting to watch Bryant against Corey Kluber for a third time as well, with Bryant having found his groove at the plate over the last pair of games.

In terms of the ability and type of contact we’ve seen from both, refer to the graph below:

Swing% Contact% O-Contact% Z-Contact% SwStr% Soft% Hard%
Kris Bryant 48.8 73.3 59.8 81.1 13.0 17.0 40.3
Jose Ramirez 43.9 88.8 84.4 91.2 4.9 14.4 26.8

Ramirez has been one of the higher contact guys throughout the season. He’s been aggressive in his approach, and he’s been able to utilize that speed effectively in notching a few extra hits because of it. Bryant may strike out more regularly, but his contact rate is also significantly improved from 2015 and his contact ends up being far harder and, subsequently farther, than that of Ramirez. If what we’ve seen thus far in the series is any indication, Ramirez will use that high contact and baserunning ability to be a thorn in the side of Chicago, and if there’s a big time hit to be made on the part of the Cubs, it could very likely come off the bat of Bryant.

It should be relatively well known at this point what each can do on the bases, as the pair rank 1-2 in BsR. Ramirez sports an 8.8 mark, while Bryant comes in not far behind, at 7.3. Ramirez is a legitimate threat to go, with 22 swipes on the season. This could prompt the Cubs to go with David Ross in order to try and slow he and the other Cleveland runners to an extent. While Bryant isn’t as active in the run game, with only eight steals, he’s still a capable baserunner who has been lauded for his intelligence on the basepaths.

As one-sided as it may seem based off of name recognition alone, it’s still a fun matchup that we’ve been able to watch at the hot corner. You have two players in the top eight in WAR at their position, with both bringing different skill sets to the table. While Bryant obviously represents the higher quality player in a variety of ways, the ways in which both could find a way to impact Game 7 in Cleveland on Wednesday night are countless. Bryant with the big power bat, Ramirez with the high contact ability. With perhaps only nine innings remaining in the 2016 Major League year, this will be one fun matchup in a multitude of things to watch in Wednesday’s final tilt.


On the Suddenly Good and Apparently Clutch Jose Ramirez

We’ll get back into reviewing some of the performances at the hot corner next week. With the World Series currently underway, and myself having explored Kris Bryant extensively this season (and recently profiling Javier Baez), it’s the perfect opportunity to look at Jose Ramirez for the first time in a couple of months. While fans in Cleveland have become well aware of what he has brought to the table with a breakout 2016 campaign, the rest of the nation has really experienced their first exposure to Ramirez throughout this postseason. Not only has he broken out, but the numbers paint him as one of the more clutch players in baseball.

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