I’m nothing if not consistent. As we close in on the end of the season’s first month, I figured it’d be pertinent to review the early performance of one of the more intriguing players the third base position has to offer in Jake Lamb. That intrigue stems from a tremendously strong start last year, followed by a notably terrible decline that was largely attributed to injuries (as well as perhaps a lack of trust vs. left-handed pitching from his former manager).

The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a strong start, and while their pitching is still relatively suspect, it’s hard not to love what they bring to the mix on offense. Serving as an offensive catalyst for the Snakes is their third sacker, in Jake Lamb. Lamb has followed up what was a strong start to the 2016 campaign with a rebound from last year’s second half, looking to showcase himself as a valuable entity not only to the Diamondbacks, but also as a fantasy entity at one of the corner spots.

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The only time that recent history shows me discussing Chase Headley is that time during the offseason where I declared that the New York Yankees should look at Luis Valbuena as a potential upgrade at the position. Obviously, whatever points were made there were moot, as Valbuena went on to sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim later on in the winter. Nonetheless, I wasn’t terribly high on Headley coming into the 2017 season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find folks (who aren’t liars) that were or even are.

Regardless of expectations, Headley is off to the best start of any player at the third base position. Yes, the same position that includes Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado, among a handful of other high-end players currently sports Chase Headley as the class of the hot corner. He was the first third sacker to eclipse the 1.0 WAR mark and the early trends have him returning to a level of offensive prominence that we haven’t seen since, like, 2013 when he was still in San Diego.

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Across the network recently, we’ve featured writers sharing their bold predictions for the impending 2017 season. Since I’m more of a follower than a leader with little sense of individuality, this is a path that I will also be traversing. However, I’ll be limiting my bold and sweeping declarations to the spot where I make my living on this site: the hot corner. Let’s look at a few potentially terribly, and very likely, misguided opinions that I have about the third base position heading into the new season.

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In what was expected to serve as a breakout season, Maikel Franco’s 2016 campaign was riddled with disappointing aspects. His 1.4 WAR finished 21st among 24 qualifying players at the third base position, the same ranking in which his -7.4 Off rating fell when it was all said and done. There’s still plenty of upside there, though, and certain elements of his game indicate that it isn’t quite time to give up on Franco becoming an impact player at the hot corner before long.

Franco’s 2015 season indicated big things potentially on the horizon for him last season. He finished with a slash that featured a .280 average, a .343 on-base percentage, and an .840 OPS across 335 plate appearances. His ISO came in at .217, while he finished with park-adjusted offense that came in at 129, painting him as a well above-average offensive player.

Obviously we’re comparing 335 plate appearances to 630 in 2016, but his average fell to .255, his OBP came in at .306, and his OPS lost over 100 points, down to .733. The ISO that was a source of encouragement in 2015 came in at only .172, a significantly lower figure than that of the previous season. It all culminated in a wRC+ of 92, a far cry from where he was in that first real taste of the big leagues. So what just happened to Franco that he experienced such a regression from 2015 to 2016?

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Early Average Draft Position is such an astounding thing, as typical and interesting draft tendencies are widely reflected in it. Rookies and inexperienced players being taken too high, quality performers being limited because of a smaller market, etc. Also, Josh Donaldson as the fourth third baseman on average? Come on. With that in mind, it makes sense to look at some of those ADP figures and examine who could be a potential sleeper in drafts as the month of March continues to barrel toward the regular season. Those identified as “sleepers” here are based primarily off of their ADP more so than name recognition.

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There are elements of baseball that the casual fan pays attention to and there’s the Tampa Bay Rays. The lack of notoriety that the Rays experience, as an organization, likely resulted in a lack of attention toward what was actually a stellar year for third baseman Evan Longoria, in terms of the power game. While he experienced some regression from the previous couple of years in certain aspects, his ability to make impact contact ranked among the game’s elite at the position. The concern moving forward, in addition to the regression he experienced in those certain areas, is whether we should expect the power to remain intact.

In terms of ownership, there were some drawbacks to Longoria’s game in 2016, something that was an obvious result of a change in approach. His walk rate dipped for the fourth consecutive year, falling to 6.1%, the lowest of his Major League career, as his 48.8% swing rate was the highest mark of his career. His Contact% fell to 75.4, his lowest mark since 2009. Subsequently, his on-base percentage dropped to the lowest in his career as well, at just .318. His strikeout rate wasn’t an overwhelming concern, though, as at 21.0%, it came in less than a full percentage point above his career average, even with that newfound aggressiveness at the plate.

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It’s that wonderful time of year where preliminary positional rankings starting pouring out for the upcoming season. Because I needed another reason to look like a fool by the end of it. The third base position opens 2017 with plenty of intrigue, with a couple of newish faces to the mix and one notable name departing for a new position. Let’s all pour one out for Matt Carpenter. My goal is to be far more consistent on the rankings side in 2017, which means more opportunity for folks to ponder, “Just what in the world is this guy thinking?”

Let’s get to it with some cleverly named tiers:

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The 2016 performance of Todd Frazier was something of an enigma. Or was it?

While he flashed his typical brand of power and (it’s with extreme reluctance that I even mention this) turned in a solid RBI total, he also featured a slash with a .225 average and .302 on-base percentage, both of which were among the worst at the third base position. His strikeout rate, at 24.5%, was the highest of his career. Those are certainly factors that will cause some prospective owners to shy away moving forward.

At the same time, there are other elements of Frazier’s game that still leave him as one of the more intriguing players that the hot corner has to offer. While some may shy away, others will jump at the opportunity to get that kind of power into their lineup, even with the potential drawbacks. With that in mind, what’s the correct course of action in regard to Todd Frazier?

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When it comes to the third base position, we already know a lot of what to expect in 2017. In a sense, we largely know who will reside at the top and serve as an upper tier fantasy asset, while it’s also relatively apparent who can provide steady production at the position as a secondary choice in upcoming drafts. It’s almost somewhat black and white in a sport that is almost never just black and white.

But beyond my incessant rambling, there’s the “first full year” factor (note: I referred to him as a rookie multiple times because I lacked coffee and common sense this morning), something that you can just barely adequately prepare for. In this case, though, there’s one predominant exception: Alex Bregman. The Houston Astros product figures to be an intriguing option as that first-full-year guy that folks will be all over in the early rounds of drafts. A lot of that is justified, but any time you’re talking about a player coming into his first full season in the big leagues, there is at least some reason for a certain level of apprehension.

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I’ve written about Luis Valbuena a couple of different times this winter: once in regard to the third basemen available on the free agent market and then again as a comparison against Chase Headley, as it looked like the New York Yankees were in pursuit of the veteran third baseman. With Valbuena now suiting up for the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) thanks to a recent two-year deal, now comes the time that we evaluate whether or not he’ll be a fantasy asset in the coming year.

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