Seattle’s Tony Zych will be placed on the 15-day DL for rotator cuff tendinitis, as the origins and timetable for return are not known. Last year in a small sample Zych looked very strong. Zych was continuing to open eyes with a 14.25 K/9 this season, but his control was also concern with a BB/9 of 6. Steve Johnson was called up to fill his roster spot, but not his role as the second set-up man. Johnson impressed in AAA this year with 20 K’s and 2 BB’s over 16 innings. Yet in his limited major league exposure, Johnson has produced a 4.25 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a good K rate (10.49 per 9) and poor BB rate (5.46 per 9). Nick Vincent will be second in line for saves it seems, and he has performed well this season. Vincent had been a solid low leverage reliever for the Padres, and there appears to have been improvements made this year. His strikeouts are slightly up from the past and he has yet to issue a walk. The two dings on his numbers this year have been the two home runs he gave up this year, but I’m still intrigued by the batted ball data. His previous career high GB/FB ratio was 1.26. This season: 2.17. I know, it’s early and we need to see more if we can conclude whether something has changed. He can still be a nice source for Holds while Zych is sidelined.
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Zach Britton left a tied game with a lower body injury and took the loss. Britton struck out the first two batters he faced, and then left the game after Adam Eaton bunted towards him. Vance Worley came in to replace Britton and gave up the inherited run with two walks and a single. We don’t know the severity of Britton’s injury yet, but certainly monitor that situation moving forward. A potential replacement if he were to be shelved for any time would probably be Darren O’Day, who earned his first blown save of the season. O’Day pitched the 8th gave up three hits including a three-run homer by Todd Frazier.
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So a month has gone by since I tiered the first basemen for the preseason, which you can check out here:

2016 First Base Tier Rankings: Preseason Rankings

I tried not to be too reactionary by making massive changes unless somebody has garnered more playing time than expected, or suffered an injury or lost their role. In other words, my list is similar to my initial one since one month is not enough of a sample to make significant changes.

In honor of the NHL playoffs and my love for the New York Islanders, I have ordered my tiers by the players with the highest points per game in Islanders history. I welcome and encourage all feedback, but do note that these are subjective and still predictive in nature, as opposed to being reflective of one month. Enjoy!
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Keone Kela had surgery to remove a bone spur and will miss around three months. The closer and set-up roles remain intact for now, but the next in line is a little foggy. Jake Diekman seems like a solid option to fill that role based on his numbers so far. I put Anthony Barnette in that role for now since he was given the 7th inning today with a 2-1 lead, and had a clean inning. Not saying that he is better than Diekman, but simply based on potential usage, it looks like Barnette will at least be given a shot to be next in line. As I write about Barnette, Sam Dyson lets up a home run to Todd Frazier that ties up the game. Then gives up the go-ahead run through a series of walks, HBPs, and hits. Dyson is still strong enough to keep the set-up role and is still in line for saves if Shawn Tolleson falters. Speaking of blowing the lead, David Robertson blew his first save of the year. After allowing a lead-off walk to Desmond, Desmond advanced to third on an error during his stolen base. He would then score on a sacrifice fly. Robertson also allowed a single, but also had two strikeouts.

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One of the players I struggled to rank to start the season was Hanley Ramirez. He is kind of an enigma in fantasy because the talent has always been there, and for a SS, has put together some strong years outside of injuries. The move to the outfield and to Fenway Park seemed like it would work well for his value, but instead turned out to be nothing short of a disastrous first season, despite just missing twenty home runs. Writers were all over the place with where to put Ramirez, and some writers thought injuries and the new scene played a significantly negative role and he was worth taking a flyer on this year. There is still a lot of season to play, but based on some of the rate stats I’ve seen so far, I’m selling big time.

First, let’s look at his BB%, K%, ISO and BABIP. One of the reasons I was down on Ramirez this season was the drop in his walk rate. One reason to be optimistic was that his ISO was not far off his career average and strikeout percentage was right in line. Additionally, his BABIP was much lower than his career rate, so it’s easy to chalk up his troubles to pressing and injuries. Then I looked at the past two seasons versus his career rate with those stats and turned this up:

Hanley Ramirez Rate Stats

Season	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
2015	4.90%	16.50%	0.177	0.257
2016	3.30%	25.00%	0.14	0.333
Career	9.20%	16.70%	0.198	0.327

The walk rate continues to drop, his strikeout rate has risen, his ISO has dropped, yet his BABIP is around where it should be for his career. The number that really jumps out at me as an issue is the drop in the walk rate. If he had a strong walk rate last season and just started off low, that’s one thing. Now, though, after last season and to still continue to drop has me concerned. Is he just not seeing the ball as well? Is he being overly aggressive? That’s where I looked at his plate discipline numbers.

For this table I’ve included his plate discipline numbers for the last two seasons and his career. This is the table created:

Hanley Ramirez Plate Discipline

Season	Team	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%	SwStr%
2015	Red Sox	34.30%	71.70%	50.90%	69.40%	89.30%	81.80%	44.30%	59.30%	9.10%
2016	Red Sox	36.80%	65.00%	53.10%	50.00%	87.20%	76.40%	58.00%	71.70%	12.10%
Total	– – –	26.80%	66.40%	45.80%	65.60%	89.80%	82.40%	47.80%	60.10%	7.90%

He’s swinging outside the zone more than he used to, but that percentage began to increase when he went to the Dodgers, so although the increase is a concern, it doesn’t explain this much of a drop-off fully. He is swinging more than he used to, but he is also seeing a lot more balls in the zone, so that can explain some of that.

These are the numbers that worry me for this season: his Contact% and his Zone%. He is making less contact than he ever has, yet is seeing more pitches in the zone than he ever has. His swinging strike percentage is at a high and is falling behind in the count over 70% of the timejust after the first pitch.

In short, Hanley is having a rough start that other players have gone through and eventually came out fine. My concern is that the struggles aren’t suddenly new to him this season and appeared last year in some of these areas. I don’t have a clear explanation for why Ramirez is on this slide, and based on what I’ve seen this year and last, I’m staying far away and advise you do the same. Sure, there’s a good chance he’ll hit a hot streak and things could go back to the way they were. The lack of a disciplined approach is what worries me most and I just don’t see him suddenly turning that around with all the pressure surrounding him. He may need some time in a low stress environment to fix his approach, which he certainly won’t get in Boston.

There were a lot of save opportunities today and the closers (one set-up man) were perfect in converting these saves (or at least when I published this). I won’t get into every save tonight, just the more interesting ones.

Sean Dolittle faced one batter in the 8th inning tonight after surrendering a home run the night before down by a run. Instead of turning to Doolittle for the four-out save, Bob Melvin went to Ryan Madson for the first time since he gave up two runs to the Angels. Madson wasn’t perfect and gave up an unearned run, but he did get himself his third save of the season. Using Doolitle on Friday was not necessarily ideal for Melvin, so there will still be some save opportunities ahead for Doolittle. Doolittle has given up runs in his previous two appearances, so it’s not a rock solid hold on the closer role, which seems to be inconsistent anyway with the A’s using their top relievers in high leverage situations for the most part.
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The American League’s first player of the week was, you guessed it, Tyler White. The same Tyler White who most people did not project being even the back-up first baseman coming into spring training is absolutely raking so far. Much of the talk regarding fantasy value for prospects who surprised early has been going towards Trevor Story, but Tyler White is another player who is garnering significant attention. Last week, when I wrote about undrafted first basemen, White was owned in 36% of CBS leagues. Today? 87%. August Fagerstrom did a wonderful job developing comps for White, which I still think are applicable. What I want to do today is try to assess his fantasy value for you.

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• Santiago Casilla blew his first save of the season against the Dodgers today, though a key bobble by Kelby Tomlinson is taking away some of that heat. Casilla loaded the bases with one out, then induced what seemed to be a game-ending double play ball to Tomlinson. Tomlinson bobbled the ball, allowing the run to score, and only getting one out. Casilla’s job is safe for now, but Sergio Romo and Hunter Strickland both pitched scoreless innings, earning themselves holds, and would be next in line for saves. Again, don’t see it happening just yet as a result of today’s blown save since Casilla is not 100% to blame. Romo pitched the 7th and Strickland came in with a runner on in the 8th. Don’t think this is indicative of who is necessarily next in line, just thought it was worth noting.

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Rather than start changing and editing my initial tiers after less than a week of games, I am going to take a page out of Justin Mason’s book and go over some of those undrafted first basemen. The guys you had no room for or simply didn’t think about as those last couple rounds just flew by you.

Unless you are in very deep leagues, you should still have better options available to you at first base. These are guys you should reserve for deeper leagues or if you completed punted on first base or suffered an injury. In no way are these guys you should build your squad around. I tried to key on guys who are garnering relatively regular playing time and can help you in those counting stats, with the last two guys giving a potential boost in BA and OBP.
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• The Phillies have not named a closer yet, and it’s not as if they have an answer and are not telling anybody. For now, our chart lists David Hernandez as the closer despite giving up a home run to the Phillies future squad. One time closer favorite Andrew Bailey has been demoted to the minors, along with Ernesto Frieri. Hernandez has appeared in 5 games this spring, and has surrendered a run in two of them. Dalier Hinojosa is not out of the picture to close games, but has struggled this spring giving up three home runs 8.2 innings. I’d avoid this situation unless you are in the deepest of leagues. Hernandez very strong numbers in Arizona in 2011 and 2012, so that would take some serious optimism to think he could get back to those numbers.

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