Author Archive

2016 First Base Tier Rankings: June

We have two months of data in the books, so I have decided to deviate a littler further from my previous first base tier rankings. In case you were curious about where the first basemen ranked previously, here you go:

Preseason 1B Rankings

May 1B Rankings (although I mistakenly put April)

I’ve decided to add some tiers this go around because there are players who fall into two categories who I am having difficulty tiering with the rest of the first basemen. The first additional tier will be guys out for any significant time be it injury, suspension, or are simply in the minors. It’s great to stash some of these guys if you have the room, but you should be looking elsewhere for playing time so I simply ranked them in value in their own tier.

The other tier is for those multi-positional players. I had been very adamant that you should not be using catchers as your first basemen. That was until I had Kevin Plawecki, Yasmani Grandal, and Miguel Montero in a two catcher NL-only league, and needed to trade my starting first baseman for speed. So I am more sympathetic to wanting to put different people at 1B, but still struggle where to rank them amongst the more regular first basemen. This tier is just ranking those players with ten or less games at 1B who will not get the majority time at first. A few guys may have slipped in who are also ranked with the rest of the 1B.

The theme for this month’s tier rankings are my favorite summer jams. I work in education and yesterday was the last day for the students at the middle school I work at, so summer has officially started for us. Some songs have summer themes, whereas others are just fun songs that I like to hear during the summer months. If you disagree with my song selections, please make sure to list your favorites and why I am wrong, and I will do my best to ignore them. Just kidding…sort of. Anyway, hope you enjoy!
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Bullpen Report: June 2, 2016

Wade Davis was given the night off after recording his 16th save last night. Luke Hochevar and Kelvin Herrera each earned holds (10 and 15 respectively), as Hochevar pitched a clean 7th and Herrera, well, not so much as he gave up a run on two singles and a walk. Joakim Soria pitched the 9th, which is semi-surprising since it seemed like Herrera would be the next in line for saves if the moment arises. Guess Ned Yost thought it’d be best to not mess around too much with the bullpen order and give the save situation to the guy with more experience. Didn’t work out so well for the Royals as Soria blew his second save of the year giving up two runs on two hits (including a triple) and a game-ending sacrifice fly. I could change the chart based on tonight’s usage, but also feel like if a long-term situation was to come up, Herrera would be the guy.
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Bullpen Report: May 29, 2016

Sorry I missed you all for most of this weekend, so I’ll make sure to catch you up on the long weekend. There were some mighty stumbles this weekend, but none that should rock the closer grid. Per usual, there were the fair share of saves and only one that so far has made movement in the grid since you last saw it. Let’s talk about the falls first.
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Exploring a New Statistic: Nolan Ryan Percentage

I know some tiered rankings have come out this week, but I wanted to take you in a little different direction this week. Next week I will have the first base tiered rankings up. This week, I wanted to explore a new statistic I came up with that will probably not help you win your league. It is simply a fun way to look at pitchers in a different light, so I hope you enjoy reading about it as much I enjoyed exploring it.

I am fortunate enough to have Jake Arrieta on one of my teams, so I have been able to look at his starts individually. I started to notice that even though he was giving up very few hits, he seemed to be giving up a lot of walks along with a high number of strikeouts. This got me wondering if Arrieta was turning into a modern day Nolan Ryan, where he was not going to let you make contact even if that meant walking the hitter. Turns out there are better comps to Nolan Ryan, but I’ll get more into that later.

Initially, I thought I could look at contact%, but that looks at every single pitch and that is not really what I wanted. I wanted to see which pitchers allowed the least amount of balls in play on average. So I created the Nolan Ryan percentage (NR% for short). To calculate NR%, you simply add K% and BB%. Nothing complicated. Nothing groundbreaking. Just a fun way to see which pitchers are like Nolan Ryan in terms of either striking out or walking most of their hitters.
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Bullpent Report: May 22, 2016

After two rough outings in mid-May, Steve Cishek has bounced back in his last two save opportunities pitching two clean innings, and earning his 12th save today. The heart of the Seattle bullpen pitched well tonight, as Joaquin Benoit bounced back after giving up a run in his first appearance coming off the DL by pitching a clean inning today. Nick Vincent was also perfect today, as he has not allowed a run in five straight games, and could be inching his way up to the second in line designation. Vincent has appeared in twenty games this season and has only allowed an earned run in 3 of those appearances. He has 24 K’s in 19.1 innings with only 2 walks. For leagues that count holds, he can be a valuable asset right now as he earned his 9th hold of the year, and will help in the rest of your categories outside of saves (at least, so far).
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Bullpen Report: May 21,2016

Sam Dyson was immediately thrust into action after being named closer for the Rangers, and his first appearance was not so hot, despite earning the save. He faced five batters, giving up two hits and one run, while striking out one. Tonight was a different, cleaner story as Dyson pitched a perfect inning earning his 4th save of the season. The rest of the Rangers bullpen has also been strong this weekend, particularly Jake Diekman striking out four over the pas two innings. Diekman is sporting a career best 35% K rate this season, as well as a career-low 6.2% BB rate. Based on usage, Diekman is certainly next in line if Dyson ends up struggling, but may not get the role because he is one of two lefties in the Rangers pen right now. Matt Bush is the sexy name right now, as he has impressed in his small sample so far in his call-up. Tonight he earned his first hold, going through the heart of the Astros line-up, giving up his first baserunners this season. He still struck out two and managed to get out of the mini-jam he created. I don’t see Dyson losing the closer role in the near future, so Diekman and Bush appear to be guys to lean on for those holds. We’ll also monitor Tolleson’s usage moving forward to see if all trust has been lost, or if he will be a primary source for holds as well.

Carson Smith was placed on the disabled list yesterday after returning to the Red Sox on May 3. He has only pitched in 3 games this season, and felt soreness in his elbow after pitching a long outing against Oakland on May 9th. Smith was supposed to be a major addition to the Red Sox pen, and although John Farrell does not think he will need surgery, there is always concerns when it comes to the elbow. Junichi Tazawa has pitched in that 7th inning role and has been excellent this season posting a 1.58 ERA (2.47 FIP) striking out 31.8% of the hitters he has faced. I wouldn’t be surprised if he soon takes over the 8th inning role, as Koji Uehera has not been his typical dominant self. The K’s are slightly down and the BB’s are slightly up. His ERA  is up to 3.94 (3.09 FIP), which isn’t a huge alarm for concern, but Tazawa has just been that good.

Miguel Castro made his first appearance yesterday since being placed on the DL, pitching a scoreless 8th and surrendering only a double. I moved him back into the grid as second in line, but can easily see him jumping into the first in line very shortly. Castro has impressed in his brief appearances this season, but so has Carlos Estevez. Colorado has some nice arms in their pen and I am curious to see how this scenario plays out the whole season. I predicted McGee to get 40 saves in my bold prediction piece, and I think he is still in line for that. He just has unexpected protection before him, and this would go a long way to legitimizing part of Colorado’s pitching staff.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Brad Ziegler Daniel Hudson Tyler Clippard
Atlanta Arodys Vizcaino Jason Grilli Hunter Cervenka
Baltimore Zach Britton Darren O’Day Mychal Givens
Boston Craig Kimbrel Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Justin Grimm
CHI (AL) David Robertson Nate Jones Zach Duke
Cincy Ross Ohlendorf Tony Cingrani Jumbo Diaz
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw Dan Otero
Colorado Jake McGee Carlos Estevez Miguel Castro
Detroit Francisco Rodriguez Mark Lowe Justin Wilson Bruce Rondon
Houston Luke Gregerson Ken Giles Will Harris
KC Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria
LAA Joe Smith Fernando Salas Jose Alvarez Huston Street
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Joe Blanton Yimi Garcia
Miami A.J. Ramos David Phelps Kyle Barraclough Carter Capps
Milwaukee Jeremy Jeffress Tyler Thornburg Michael Blazek Will Smith
Minnesota Kevin Jepsen Trevor May Fernando Abad Glen Perkins
NY (NL) Jeurys Familia Addison Reed Hansel Robles
NY (AL) Aroldis Chapman Andrew Miller Dellin Betances
Oakland Ryan Madson John Axford Sean Doolittle
Philly Jeanmar Gomez David Hernandez Hector Neris
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Neftali Feliz
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Kevin Siegrist Seung Hwan Oh
SD Fernando Rodney Brandon Maurer Ryan Buchter
SF Santiago Casilla Cody Gearrin Hunter Strickland Sergio Romo
Seattle Steve Cishek Joaquin Benoit Joel Peralta
TB Alex Colome Erasmo Ramirez Xavier Cedeno Brad Boxberger
Texas Sam Dyson Jake Diekman Shawn Tolleson Keone Kela
Toronto Roberto Osuna Gavin Floyd Drew Storen Brett Cecil
Wash. Jonathan Papelbon Blake Treinen Shawn Kelley

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


A Closer Look at Tommy Joseph

The Phillies called up Tommy Joseph exactly a week ago, which means I am technically a week late in getting this to fantasy owners looking for some depth at first base. I blame the timing of the Phillies who need to be more cognizant of this writer’s publishing and writing schedule. I intend to touch on Joseph’s past, as well as looking forward to what lies ahead in his future as well, which is a bit difficult with his lack of past experience.
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Bullpen Report: May 15, 2016

Tony Cingrani recorded his third save today coming into the game with the bases loaded and one out and a five run cushion. He retired the next two batters to lock down the save after blowing one on Wednesday. No official announcement has been made regarding his status as closer, but for now if you really need a closer, you can roll with Cingrani. How long he holds the role is another story as he has struck out 15 over 17 innings, but has also walked 10. His HR/FB rate is also way below his average, so if that normalizes, that can be a recipe for disaster accompanied with those walks. Personally, I’m staying away from this situation despite Cingrani seemingly having the 9th inning job because I am not sure how many save opportunities the Reds are going to have to make it worth risking my ERA and WHIP. Go after him at your own risk.
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Bullpen Report: May 13, 2016

So the Phillies bullpen is becoming a strength after a rough start, as Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez were perfect in the 8th and 9th, each striking out one. Neris continues to impress by not allowing a run in 17 of his 20 appearances, posting a 1.64 ERA (3.32 FIP). The FIP is high probably because of the 3 home runs he has given up, but outside of that he has looked very strong and also earned his ninth hold of the year for those of you counting. Gomez has also been such a pleasant surprise, despite really only a slight uptick in both his K/9 and K%. The ERA is down from last year (3.01 to 2.61), but the FIP has gone up (3.25 to 3.63). Still has been an excellent closer so far, but the question is how long will this last?
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Positional Eligibility Fun at 1B

A few weeks ago, I joined a league after an owner dropped out last minute. The only reason I joined was because I thought the previous owner did a nice job compiling this squad, or else I wouldn’t have touched it. It’s a 14-team head-to-head points league where you play three different owners at once. There are some funky rules in the league (which I’m always game for), but there is one that caught me by surprise regarding position eligibility.

To start the season, players have traditional positional eligibility (20 games at a position). So when I took over this team, I had Anthony Rendon at 2B and Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. No problem. Then on Sunday, the day after waivers run mind you, somebody informed me that both these players would not be eligible for those positions next week, which confused the hell out of me. After much research and a bunch of clarifying questions, I discovered this crazy rule I have never encountered. By May 1st, positional players must play ten games at a position in order to continue to receive eligibility at that position. Since Rendon hasn’t played any second base, he lost second base eligibility. Encarnacion also lost 1B eligibility because he has played less than 10 games at first, but he still has a chance to regain that (he now has ten games at 1B).

In honor of this new format I encountered, and the craziness that is Friday the 13th, I am going to look at other first baseman who may have lost 1B eligibility in leagues similar to this one, as well as looking at players who did not have 1B eligibility, but are on their way to gaining that eligibility. I intentionally left off catchers because you probably shouldn’t be starting more than the required amount, and if you are, go to your waive wire and find an actual first baseman.
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