Believe it or not there are already 2025 drafts going on over the NFBC! I have resisted the urge to participate in any just yet, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been dialed into the early average draft position (ADP) data – make sure to change the dates to 10/01/24 through the current date as it defaults the 2024 data. I was particularly curious what kind of price hikes we’d see on some of the biggest breakout pitchers from the season so I went over to our Player Rater to find my pitchers of interest.
I landed on a group of 6 who were all drafted outside pick-200 while finishing as Top 30 starters. Since it is Draft Champions season (50-round Draft & Hold format), I’m comparing this early ADP to their DC ADP from March 20th-27th which consisted of 21 drafts.
Here’s where they are going through 5 DC drafts and what I think about their chances of a repeat:
No surprises here as the 2023 #1 overall pick took the league by storm in mid-May and never looked back. In fact, some boards have him as the #1 starter ahead of Tarik Skubal. He has peaked as high as #5 overall and I believe he will go #1 overall in at least one Main Event next spring, barring any sort of news that would create extra injury concerns. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list and thus there isn’t much else to say. I know some will need more than 133 IP to him this high and while I acknowledge nothing is certain and he could suffer a sophomore slump, there is simply nothing in his profile to suggest there is a high or even moderate likelihood of that. You might get him on the turn or just after as he has a max pick of 18, but if you really want Skenes next year, I suggest a mid-to-late 1st round focus for your KDS.
Final weekend, good luck everyone! Let me know if you have any questions in the comments.
For Detroit it was Brant Hurter/Tarik Skubal listed as probables, but then Hurter pitched on Friday night and them clinching moves Skubal to game 1 of the Wildcard (that feels amazing to type out). So I think they’ll just piece it together with guys like Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Kenta Maeda getting multi-inning looks.
Trying to make updates as I see ’em but I’m not going to remake the table so for example Beck replacing Snell will remain atop the list but be 0-x, of course.
I’m stumbling into the finish line here, y’all. Not only did I fall asleep early Wednesday night, but then I had the post locked and loaded this morning only to schedule it improperly (it would’ve gone out overnight tonight). I’m sorry about that for those of you who were looking for a Thursday board. Here’s the Friday board and I’ll get the weekend one up on Friday sometime. Good luck down the stretch and never roster Angels pitchers! (Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson ruined me!)
Casey Mize is listed for Detroit on the Probables board, but he relieved on Thursday so I really doubt he starts Friday, even for 1-3 IP.
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The studs are catching some tough matchups but outside of scenarios where you’re aggressively protecting ratios, I’d still definitely run ’em!
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I don’t think we can blindly trust every established name going on Tuesday, but there are a lot of options to consider across all levels with more than half the board getting some love for 12s and deeper.
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