Talked a bit in my chat about doing a full week ranking at some point and while I wasn’t able to do that this weekend, I do have a new feature: a 2-start ranking board!
Monday Morning Update:
Added Grayson Rodriguez because he is probably getting Baltimore’s 2-step instead of Albert Suarez.
Added Michael King, didn’t see that he and Cease were both getting 2-steps this wk
With so few games tomorrow, it is easier to just do quick notes on the pitchers going instead of going through the whole charting process.
Logan Webb SFG v. ARI – A fantasy ace; must-start. Reco: All
Ryan Pepiot TBR v. LAA – I’m still fully in on my guy. The 5.40 ERA isn’t great, but the 23% K-BB and 1.02 WHIP leave me undaunted by the extra runs he’s allowing. He’s still locked into my lineup and he gets DET next week, too! Reco: All
Transcript is live, thanks for coming out!! Feel free to post your thoughts on the Daily SP Chart and the one-liners if you didn’t get to come to the live chat.
1:06
Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!
1:06
Love Is A Battenfield: Who is the better pickup/stream for Friday: Gore vs the Astros or Flaherty vs the Twins?
1:07
Paul Sporer: Flaherty for me, HOU is still good vL as their offense isn’t the main culprit behind their slow start
1:07
Günter: Is it time to move on from Colt Keith? Just another prospect that experts missed on?
1:07
Paul Sporer: Stopppp, it’s been 2 weeks…
1:08
Paul Sporer: Like he might be cuttable in a shallower format bc he was probably drafted pretty late, but suggesting he’s a miss already after 62 PA is wild
Pretty straightforward board on Wednesday. I think you have to stick with Fried and Gausman despite their slow starts. There’s a nice handful of streamer types to take shots with across all formats or in DFS. I really wish Feltner wasn’t a Rockie so I could just roster him all year, I think he’s really good. Next week I’ll start adding this year’s stats for pitchers. I just don’t want to people to get overly influenced by weird ass ERAs. It’s not like next week is some perfect cut-off, either, but I’m trying to wait for most guys to have 4-5 starts at least and I’ll do my best to point out when there’s 1 start causing a misleadingly bad ERA and things like that. I’ve got my chat on Wednesday at 1 pm ET so feel free to bring your questions there or just leave ’em in the comments of this post!
How do y’all handle Hunter Greene? Do you try to time him and skip home starts? Or just go all out and use every start? Obviously he’s a start in Seattle, but I feel like you almost have to do the latter and just run him everywhere. He was a top 150 pick so even in the shallowest formats, he is part of the upper 2/3rds of a roster so there is some real expectation of production. I can envision having a rotation deep enough to spot him a bit in 10-teamers, but in 12-teamers or more, I can’t see sitting him, especially because his splits aren’t even that severe so you can find yourself sitting gems and eating duds.
Hunter Greene’s Home/Road Splits
IP
ERA
WHIP
K-BB%
HOME
116
4.87
1.32
20%
AWAY
138
4.43
1.28
23%
Soure: I looked it up
He and Nick Lodolo are tough ones for me because I’m a really big fan of both, but Great American Ballpark’s 128 HR Park Factor the last three years paired with Greene’s 1.6 HR9 and Lodolo’s 1.4 HR9 rates kept me away at the draft table. I know there’s a world where they both put it together enough to start suppressing homers, even at home, and fulfill their breakout prophecies. And that world is what feeds my FOMO with them.
Skipping Lodolo was just the injury to start the season and I don’t love drafting already-injured guys in the NFBC universe (7 reserves, no IL). But when push came to shove with Greene requiring a pick around 100 to really secure him (137 ADP in the Main Event with a min pick of 89), I just couldn’t see it. In one of my drafts, I took Tanner Bibee (who also throws on Tuesday) and Shota Imanaga in the 2 picks where I was really considering Greene, who went 4 picks after Imanaga at pick 125.
In my other draft, he lasted until 150 but I was hitter focused with 3 of my 4 picks from 101-150 and Yu Darvish as my only pitcher. I can certainly understand the argument for Greene over Darvish, but even at age-37 I felt more confident about what I can get with Darvish. They’ve been about the same thus far per our new Player Rater with Greene at 84 among pitchers and Darvish at 92. It seems like Greene has more upside because we can dream on just about anything if that stuff comes with a summer of premium command a la Germán Márquez in 2018, but we’re also not that far removed from Darvish’s 3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP of 2022 which still exists as a potential upside. He started off that season with an 11% BB rate in 4 starts before delivering a 4% BB rate over his next 26 starts, fueling the excellent season.
Who do you like the rest of the way: Greene or Darvish?
