Pardon me on the shorter chat today. Back with a full hour (or more) next week!
1:09
Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!
1:09
Guest: Would you start Bowden Francis at Boston tomorrow?
1:09
Paul Sporer: I would, yes. He’s been so dialed in that I’m giving him a shot in any matchup right now
1:09
Jay: Thoughts on DJ Herz? Seems like he’s got good stuff and generates a lot of K’s. I think he might be more than just a streamer in a points league.
1:10
Paul Sporer: We discussed on today’s pod (out later) and I’m definitely rostering & starting, but there is still risk w/his control issues so be careful
1:10
person: is it a short chat today because you have some home runs you still have to allow to the Royals?
We haven’t really seen Skenes limited so he’s still a full-go starter.
Bibee’s 2.86 ERA since May 13th is tied for 7th-best, juuust behind Wheeler and Ragans at 2.85 and Skubal at 2.83 in that same time period. I bring this up only because there was some concern about Bibee because of his 4.91 ERA in the 8 starts before that despite a solid 18% K-BB. The 1.3 HR9 was a big issue and he’s shaved it down to 0.9 during this current 17-start run.
Musgrove and E-Rod have looked a lot more like themselves over their last 3 starts and I’ve got them back in the lineup everywhere without incident. It doesn’t mean they are risk-free or anything, just that I’m once again trusting them at a level in line with their name value.
Arrighetti seems to have turned a corner with his 7 shutout IP v. COL which kickstarted a 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 58.7 IP after a rough 6.36 ERA through his first 13 starts that included two 7 ER starts.
TOR’s offensive surge of late is giving me some pause with mid-tier arms. I’m certainly open to starting Bello, but not racing to do so.
I consider myself pretty open to extreme runs on either end from just about any player over a given month, but I cannot fathom how many bold predictions I would’ve had to go through to get to Bido reeling off a 1.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 16% K-BB in his L4 starts (23 IP). And yet, here we are! I can see starting him in 10s in the right context, but it’s not a must in Cincy.
Leiter returns to the majors with the best possible matchup and he’s looked much better in the minors of late, highlighted by 44 Ks in his last 28 IP.
I barely trust Buehler in good matchups right now so I’m certainly not starting him v. BAL.
I’ll have my chat at 1pm CT today (Wednesday) if you have any questions!
I am so sorry about dropping the ball on the 2-start sheet today. It slipped my mind this morning and I committed to some other tasks that ate up most of my day. Of the 2-start guys whose team didn’t play Monday meaning they can still be adjusted in the lineup at a lot of outlets, here is what I’m thinking:
Pfaadt is starting everywhere even w/a tough NYM and LAD combo
Lodolo is 15s and deeper eligible even w/OAK playing better in general and MIL lurking on the weekend, but there is big risk given his poor Aug. (8.84 ERA in 18.3 IP)
Cueto is one of my favorite SPs ever so full bias on the table but at DET/v. SEA is enticing. DET’s young roster is playing better of late (5.6 R/G w/a 6-2 record in the L8), but I’d still take a shot in 15s where I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
Myers is starting everywhere. I know the sparkling 2.85 ERA isn’t fully supported by his metrics but even 5-6 IP w/3-4 ER in each outing puts him in a good spot to pull win.
Manaea is a lineup lock right now so even though the at ARI isn’t easy, he can hopefully make up any potential damage w/the at CHW weekend start.
Webb is a must-start in all formats, of course.
Heaney has an amazing 2-step w/at CHW and v. OAK (again, all respect to OAK playing competently and their strength of HRs is Heaney’s weakness, but I’m still starting him everywhere).
I’ll the run 2-start chart in the morning and there are definitely some guys I’m leaning away from today that do become compelling in weekly formats with their weekend starts. — I totally dropped the ball on this as my morning got away from me with a few others things I had to get done. I’ll still discuss the 2-start guys who start on Tuesday in Monday night’s SP Chart. I’m sorry, y’all!
Miller/Pepiot could drop 30 Ks!
Whenever I start sobering up on Keller, he reels me back in.
I was surprised by TOR’s success vR of late. It isn’t all Vlad, but it’s mostlyVlad. His 228 wRC+ is 2nd best vR in over that time, but hilariously almost 100 pts behind Judge’s 321!!!!
Madden is interesting, but it’s his MLB debut and then BOS comes calling on the weekend so I’m inclined to sit this week out and reassess on Sunday.
For a full slate, this is a brutal board! Be careful out there if you’re streaming. Just 8 full recos, three of whom aren’t in my Top 50 SPs right now meaning they are far from sure things. The 1-2 x recos are just a mess between brutally tough matchups, poor recent performance, or both.
— Read the rest of this entry »
We had Hurter listed for Detroit tomorrow, but he’s pitching right now–well, he just got merked by a comebacker right as I’m typing this. He taking some warmup pitches and seems no more Hurter than he was prior to today, but the bottom line is that he’s NOT pitching tomorrow. Maybe it’ll just be Maeda who was slated for tonight (Wednesday) originally?
Transcript is now available, thanks for coming out!
1:02
Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!
1:02
To have and to hold: Better keeper in AL only league: deGrom ($6) or G-Cole ($15)?
1:02
Paul Sporer: Cole for sure. I just can’t trust deGrom’s health, even at the great price
1:02
Guest: 12 homers and 3 steals for Carroll since the Break… just like we all expected!
1:05
Paul Sporer: I’ve 9 HRs/3 SBs, but point taken… he’s swinging much better and I stand firm that his shoulder was bothering him early on but not enough that he couldn’t play through it and then he also suffered some bad luck compounding the issues
1:06
Spot Starter: Bowdin Francis, Matt Boyd or Bido? Or just follow the match-ups?
