Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Episode 229

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer talks to himself for a little while! He covers the injury news involving Jean Segura, Wil Myers, Jake McGee, Kenley Jansen, Kelly Johnson, Jon Jay, and Justin Masterson. He talks about guys playing well who he believes in like Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Edwin Encarnacion. He spends what feels like an hour talking himself into Todd Frazier as the best candidate for the 2016 Election a top 10 fantasy player the rest of the way before moving onto pitchers Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana, and finally Sonny Gray.

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We’ve talked in the past about how important playing time is and obviously it is ideal to roster as many starting players as possible. But sometimes a player is worthy of a starting role and simply has a roadblock or two in his way. Maybe he is a young player with a veteran in front of him. Maybe he is new on the scene so there may still be a question of sustainability. Maybe his team is just deep and can’t get all the good players in all the time. Or maybe his team is just too dumb to play the better player.

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Sometimes it is hard to remember that Tim Lincecum used to be one of baseball’s best pitchers. The back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in 2008 and 2009 enjoyed two more excellent seasons immediately after with Cy Young finishes in both, but fell off a cliff at age-28 and has remained in the canyon with Wile E. Coyote ever since with a 4.76 ERA in 539.3 innings over the last three seasons.

The early returns have been Vintage Lincecum from a results standpoint (2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but is there change we can believe in or is this just a solid run for him? After all even in the midst of a 4.74 ERA in 155.7 innings last year, he still had a random six-start run of 1.49 ERA in the early-summer. Of course it did feature his no-hitter and another outing against the offensively-challenged Padres (15.3 IP of 3-hit, 1-run ball in those two outings alone).

Are we seeing something different or is this something that would barely hit our radar if it came in mid-June as his run did last year? Let’s see what we’re dealing with here.

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Episode 228

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno is on a train during this one and there is some spottiness, but it’s not too much and I don’t think it obscures any main points, but if you miss something that needs clarifying, let us know!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury updates with Justin Verlander, Ivan Nova, Devin Mesoraco, and Zack Cozart. They talk about their current valuations of Yunel Escobar, Kris Bryant, Mark Teixeira, Jordan Pacheco, Shelby Miller, Ubaldo Jimenez, Alex Colome, and Colby Lewis. They finish with a discussion about the Steve Cishek situation in Miami.

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Episode 227

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss the injury news surrounding Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jarrod Parker, Alex Avila, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Saunders. They talk about their current valuations of Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards, Bartolo Colon, Jedd Gyorko, Adam Eaton, Jason Kipnis, Chris Carter, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Rodon, and Preston Tucker. They check in on some wobbly bullpen situations, too.

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Episode 226

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news surrounding Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Swisher. They dive into the performances of Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Mike Fiers, James Shields, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrelton Simmons before closing with a couple of Arizona transactions.

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We’re a month in and it’s time to update the NL SP tiers. A month can and definitely has changed things, but we need to be careful not to overreact to what we’ve seen so far, for better or worse. It’s a fine balance, though. We don’t want to overreact, but if we stay married to all of our preseason notions too long, we could miss the boat on guys, again for better or worse.

For May, I’ve got 10 tiers covering 70 names. I realize that there are 75 guys currently in rotations, but 10 of them just didn’t make the cut. Meanwhile, five injured arms not currently in rotations did merit a spot, thus the 70 count. I don’t yet have a fun theme for naming the tiers, but if the tiers are named by the time you read this, it means I came up with something and didn’t edit out this sentence.

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Shin-Soo Choo is no longer elite. He used to be, though. Back in 2009-2010, he put up a pair of excellent .300, 20/20 seasons which yielded a 139 wRC+, good enough for 11th in baseball. Just two years ago in a much tougher scoring environment across the league, he hit .285 and went 20/20 yielding a 151 wRC+ (9th-best). The move to Texas wasn’t really an upgrade in park, but it didn’t project to really hurt him, either. After all, his best work came in Cleveland which is hardly known as a hitter-friendly ballpark (these days it plays plus for LHB, though not overwhelmingly so).

Injuries marred his debut season in Texas resulting in an uninspiring effort that saw him hit 13 homers with a .242 AVG, .714 OPS, and just three stolen bases (in seven attempts) in 123 games. Both the ankle and elbow injuries that nagged him throughout the season required surgery and so there was a reasonable expectation of health for Choo coming into the season. His 2014 campaign offered a discount as he sank to the 51st outfielder off the board this draft season. Given the wretched first month to his season, it’s hard not to wonder if either of last year’s injuries or perhaps a new one has cropped up for Choo.

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Episode 225

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news surrounding Alex Cobb, Anthony Rendon, Hanley Ramirez, and Oswaldo Arcia. They also dive into the April performances of Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick, Brandon Crawford, Dee Gordon, Dallas Keuchel, and Alex Wood. They close talking about some call-ups: Chad Billingsley, Tyler Lyons, and Eddie Rosario.

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There was a time in fantasy baseball when prospect call-ups barely registered on the radar. I know that sounds crazy given how much we as a community overreact to them now, but when I first started playing there were maybe a handful of call-ups we were waiting for in-season and even then, expectations were tempered. Today, we often have outsized expectations attached to prospects which lead to a lot of disappointment. The newest names almost sure to disappoint the fantasy community are catchers Blake Swihart and Austin Hedges.

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