Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy implications of the Winter Meetings moves all week long here at Rotographs. Jeff has already done some pieces on earlier signings including his most recent on the huge pitching deals made this weekend. Let’s take a look at the three most recent deals of note, chronologically which happens to put them in order of least-to-most impactful for fantasy purposes, too.

–The Chapman deal isn’t done yet, so I’m holding off, especially since we don’t even have a general idea of the returns for Cincy–

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Three young outfielders who had vastly different seasons in 2015: one was excellent, but only for 350 PA, another has had an MLB-caliber glove forever but finally showed something with the bat, and the other failed to meet high expectations set by his 2014 leading to a demotion. Even with the positive aspects from two of the three guys, we’re still left wondering one question about all three: are these guys good? We’ll look at a couple key elements of their game and then give a recommendation.

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Episode 291.5

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris get together for an impromptu semi-episode to discuss the just-completed David Price deal. Then, Paul gets Jason Collette on the horn to get his thoughts on the Price deal.

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The Minnesota Twins dealt Aaron Hicks after parts of three uninspired seasons and I’m sure many of you were like me and thought this could be a case similar to Carlos Gomez. Gomez came up as a Mets prospect. He was raw, speedy super-athlete who showed the defense for center in the minors, but he was projected to add power as he filled out. The Mets rushed him to the majors at age-21 after just three-plus seasons in the minors and he’s been a major leaguer ever since.

He was the key piece in the Johan Santana deal for Minnesota and that likely encouraged them to continue the rushed development of Gomez as they immediately inserted him into the starting centerfield role at 22 years old. After a rotten 74 wRC+ in 614 PA, his playing time was drastically cut the following season.

Unfortunately, he played even worse (64 wRC+ in 349 PA). He was traded again, this time to Milwaukee in a straight up deal for J.J. Hardy. He labored through two half-seasons upon arrival, marred by three DL stints, and didn’t look much different than the Minnesota version with a 79 wRC+ in 576 PA. Hicks’ backstory has some key differences.

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Episode 291

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back talking Hot Stove! The big Jordan Zimmermann signing is first on the docket along with J.A. Happ in Toronto plus some rumored teams for key free agents. They start the series of Collette’s Calls the audio edition (same name as his Rotowire Column) where he’ll try to guess some free agents signings. We’ll do 3-5 each week starting with Justin Upton, Chris Davis, and Howie Kendrick.

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Taylor was one of 16 players with at least 14 HR and 16 SB in 2015. The group included luminaries like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Ryan Braun and obviously Taylor’s inclusion doesn’t mean he’s destined to reach their heights. In fact, his .640 OPS was easily the lowest of the bunch (Brett Gardner .742) and it netted a 72 OPS+, 30 points lower than second-worst (Charlie Blackmon 102).

Working in his favor is the fact that Taylor was just a rookie and second-youngest by age at 24 (third-youngest overall as Machado and Betts were both 22) so his deficiencies are understandable. Plus, he played just 20 games at Triple-A before reaching the majors. The biggest difference in Taylor’s game compared to the entire rest of the group is that he strikes out a ton. His 31% strikeout rate was the highest of the 16 players and Justin Upton was the only other one to top 25%. The swing-and-miss wasn’t new for Taylor, he had a 25% rate in 2189 minor league PA.

I’d feel much better about a 2016 breakout if he didn’t whiff so much, but let’s see if there are reasons for optimism.

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Episode 290

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris are talking trades! This mega-trade episode covers all the big moves we’ve seen so far from Craig Kimbrel to Cameron Maybin and everything in between. We also discuss the early signings and qualifying offers that were accepted.  Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 289

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back and talking baseball. The offseason is already filled with player movement and today we’re discussing some intriguing DFA players, the trade block, and some rumored teams for Darren O’Day and Jordan Zimmermann. They also talk way too much* about their DFS football teams.

*like two minutes, so relax already… feel better, Charmander!! 

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We know the game is changing and getting much younger as a result. We just watched perhaps the best rookie class ever. One position that has been especially enriched by the youth movement is shortstop. For a few years it has been the worst fantasy position on the diamond and next-worst wasn’t particularly close. The gap has definitely shrunk and may have done so enough to where it’s not even the thinnest position in fantasy.

Obviously the headliners here are Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, the two super-phenoms who embarrassed the league’s pitchers for 99 games apiece at the ages of 20 and 21, respectively. Many already see Correa as a first-round fantasy talent thanks in large part to his incredible power at such a premium position. Lindor won’t last too long, either. He went in the fourth round of a 15-team draft I did earlier this month, though he hasn’t yet gone deep into the seventh round of a 12-team mock that I have observed.

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On Tuesday, Brandon Crawford was inked to a six-year, $75 million dollar extension by the Giants complete with a full no-trade clause. The 28-year old shortstop just enjoyed a breakout season that saw him hit 21 HR and knock in 84 runs, both highs at the position. The offense was added to an already-stellar defensive reputation at arguably the game’s most important position.

In fact, defense alone earned his playing time early on. Crawford, a fourth-round pick from 2008, debuted in 2011 after the hopes of one final kick from Miguel Tejada fell through for the Giants. He was called up in late-May as a 24-year old after Tejada managed a paltry .522 OPS through the team’s first 50 games. The 37-year old had also shifted over to third base by the start of May, leaving shortstop to 31-year old journeyman Mike Fontenot.

Crawford was never a big-time prospect coming up. He barely made San Francisco’s Top 10 from Marc Hulet prior to his debut, but the lack of hype was because of his bat. His defense was always seen as big league-capable. Hulet suggested he could become an Adam Everett-type or maybe even a J.J. Hardy clone with less power if his bat improved. In his debut, he looked a lot like the former with a 68 wRC+ in 66 games. Everett was a career 65 wRC+ (albeit with excellent, best-in-the-league level defense).

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