Taylor Jungmann was the 12th overall pick of the 2011 draft out of the University of Texas. I had pretty high expectations for him, but that’s heavily influenced by my watching him dominate at UT (1.85 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 356 Ks in 356 IP) with a few sprinkles of favorable bias* due to my being an alum, too.

*said bias wore off as he started his pro career and I tabbed him as a fifth-starter in this year’s SP guide “barring significant advancement of either the slider or changeup”. 

Pinning relatively high hopes on the 12th overall pick isn’t that crazy, but being drafted there was actually seen as something of a fall as Kiley McDaniel noted in his prospect write-up this year:

He slipped that far despite a 6’6/220 frame, track record and mid-rotation stuff because scouts were scared off by his short, abrupt, awkward arm action, which the Brewers corrected after signing him.

The minor league numbers were unimpressive as were the reports tied to them. McDaniel mentioned how his velocity dipped after the “corrected” arm action as he lingered in the high-80s/low-90s back in 2012, but a few more tweaks had him at 90-93 last year. Jungmann has been a great example of why minor league numbers aren’t always useful as a scouting tool, especially if it’s your only one. And let’s be honest, for a large majority of you, it was your only avenue outside of reading reports like McDaniel’s from March.

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I have a friend who is quite successful at fantasy baseball despite not really being much of a baseball fan. He know the stars, loved Griffey Jr. as a kid, and will watch a playoff game here and there, but he doesn’t know the next-in-line closer or on-the-cusp prospects for every team. He doesn’t have associations with every player’s name and utilizes the numbers for his success. He posed an interesting question to me the other day: “have you ever thought of trying to draft your fantasy baseball team name-blind?”

I haven’t thought about it and I’m not sure I could pull it off even if I were interested, but it got me thinking about one of my favorite exercises to do with baseball: the blind resume. Presenting the numbers without the names can alter your perspective of a player oonce you learn the name. It’s not that names aren’t important, though. Knowing a player can offer context for the numbers and help improve your judgments of those numbers. But they can also muddy the water substantially.

Today, we are going to look at several pairs of players without the names associated. The point isn’t that one player is definitely better than the other, but rather that removing the names might actually improve your perception of the players in question. Sometimes the names make us lazy. A star-level player who isn’t quite performing up to his normal level will be given a longer leash while an unproven newcomer often needs to prove himself more to get credit for his performance.

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Episode 260

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss a pair of rookie arms who had vastly different starts on Monday night, then dive into Eno’s Tuesday piece before heading to the other end of the spectrum and talking about some more established pitchers who are on the rise after a rough start including Chris Tillman, Gio Gonzalez, R.A. Dickey, and Matt Shoemaker.

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Episode 259

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette tour the league talking a little bit about every game on Sunday including the drama in Toronto, some debuts for traded players, a poor team on a run, a middling team capable of making a run, and an older outfielder making a huge impact.

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One of the most fun parts of trade season is the trickle-down effect of the departed players and because relievers are the most easily moved assets, that generally leads to closers having the most turnover once the trade dust settles. We’re still a day away from the deadline, but this week’s flurry of action has already changed four situations in the ninth inning. Let’s assess the candidates to assume those newly opened closer’s roles in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Oakland, and Detroit.

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Episode 258

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about traaaaaaddddeeesss!!! What else?! The plan to discuss on the rise pitchers was pushed because this deadline has been amazing. Unfortunately the real Carlos Gomez deal took place after they recorded.

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Back on June 18th, we hit the waiver wire in search of some arms and came up with six names to consider. We’re headed back to the wire again, but first let’s check in on the six pack of guys recommended last month.

A mixed bag of results with DeSclafani and Young really plummeting, Latos and Hahn (injured, unfortunately) pitching really well, Hendricks holding a great WHIP with a passable ERA and Gallardo giving a strong ERA to counter his god-awful WHIP. Of course, if there wasn’t a good bit of risk tied to these guys, they wouldn’t have been on the wire in the first place.

Let’s see if we can find some more gold or at least a bunch of cool silver. The threshold these guys have to pass through to be included is to be on rosters in fewer than 50% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. I don’t have a firm baseline for CBS leagues mainly because I don’t think they have a place where you can scroll through players with all the ownership rates right there, so I get my pool of potential pitchers by scouring ESPN/Yahoo! roster rates and then check the rates on CBS. If someone is north of 75% at CBS, I usually pass (although Gallardo was 77% there in June’s waiver piece), but ideally they are at 65% or lower there.

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Episode 257

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about the two big trades of the past 24 hours involving Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Zobrist. They touch on Rusney Castillo getting a chance at a full-time plate appearances after the Shane Victorino deal and briefly hit the Jonathan Papelbon-to-Washington rumors. Their central topics focuses on five hitters on the rise after awful starts: Carlos Gonzalez, Rougned Odor, David Ortiz, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Kemp.

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Episode 256

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette had to record early due to Jason’s travel so while they had the Johnny Cueto to KC news, it wasn’t confirmed who was going back to Cincy, though Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb had been speculated about so we touched on them. We reviewed the Mets deal w/Atlanta and touched on a handful of guys including, but not limited to Anthony Rendon, Matt Moore, and Nathan Eovaldi.

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Paul’s in today for Brad! 

Agenda

1. Age Bias
2. Daily DFS
3. Tomorrow’s Targets
4. Factor Grid

Are we ageist as a fantasy community? Of course we are.

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