Identifying Potential Gems from Steamer600
One of my favorite traditions every winter is to peruse our Steamer600 projections and dream about some potential breakthrough seasons. This puts everyone on equal footing playing time-wise since it is the most difficult factor to consistently project as Rob Manfred simply refuses to turn off injuries in the global settings of the game!
Here are some of my favorite potential breakouts using these numbers:
CATCHER (they do make an exception at C where it’s 450 PA since very few Cs log 600)
Gabriel Moreno | ARI, 194 ADP | .283 AVG, 10 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB
I am still on the Moreno Train! He couldn’t really build on his 2023 breakout because while he did add a few points to his wRC+ total, he only played 97 games and saw his .284 AVG drop 18 points. Thumb and adductor strains in June and August, respectively, cost him about a month of time and contributed to his modest overall output. While it didn’t yield much in the way of his counting stats, it is worth noting that Moreno had a sharp improvement in plate skills, doubling his BB/K from 0.8, tops among catchers with at least 350 PA. A fully healthy season could see the 25-year-old backstop eclipse 400 PA for the first time while this projection likes him for a power surge, too. We did catch a glimpse of power production during their World Series run in 2023 as Moreno clubbed 4 HRs in 70 PA after hitting 7 in 380 during the regular season. The batting average is the key though, so even if he stays more in the 5-7 HR range, there is upside to chase with Moreno. In the last five full seasons (so 2019 added in to replace 2020) there have been just eight instances of a catcher hitting .280+ in at least 400 PA with William Contreras being the only guy to do it twice. I like Moreno to join that club in 2025.