Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 334 – Late-Career Barry Zito

4/18/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section: Bullpens

  • Closer Volatility (4:00)

Strategy Section: Low-Level SPs

Mailbag

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 333 – Mailbag Episode!

4/17/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Let’s talk about:

Mailbag

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 4/14/16

We will start at 2pm Central!

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My 2016 Player Portfolio

If you’ve listened to the podcast or follow me on Twitter, you know I play in a lot of (read: way too many) fantasy leagues. I’ve gotten better in that I haven’t added to the raw count in the last couple of years and I’m under 20. Obviously, you have to get some sort of routine going if you want to have any success in this number of leagues. I have my morning check of the MLB boxscores, then my fantasy boxscores, and then the fantasy news sites. I have three daily transaction leagues, but they’re all on the same site so that’s a one-stop-shop.

Sunday is a little tougher with many of the leagues FAAB bidding coming on that day, but it’s a weekend and in many of the leagues, I will put moves in throughout the week so it’s manageable. Meanwhile, a couple of the leagues have different FAAB days which actually helps so the Sunday workload isn’t so much. And the none of the league was a draft-and-hold with no trading, so I only have to check the lineup there.

I like to keep a spreadsheet of all the players I have and where I have them as it helps cut down the searching when something happens – skills change, injury, demotion/promotion. One of the first things people say when they learn I have so many leagues is “you must have everyone in the league!” It’s not true. At any moment, there are 750 players in the majors. I have a share of 241 players, though that includes minor leaguers, but either way that’s 32%. Let’s acknowledge that not every MLBer is fantasy-relevant and cut it to 500. That’s still only 48%. So I guess you can change your comment to “you must have half the league!”

I guess I can’t really deny that one.

I actively try to get a lot of the same guys across many teams, though. League formats dictate just how much I will do that, but I also play a lot of similar leagues (roto, 12-17 teams). I’m not trying to hedge and make sure I have every good thing that happens. I have the guys I believe in and I will gravitate toward them. This happens more in the mid- and late-tiers. Early on in drafts, you’re at the mercy of your draft slot. But once you push into the double-digit rounds, things really open up, particularly with pitching. We all evaluate pitchers different and so you see a tone of disparity as the draft opens up.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 332 – Jumping The Shark

4/13/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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Tipping Pitches: Checking the Ray Searage Track Record

When the Pittsburgh Pirates sign or trade for a pitcher, we all take notice. Of course, when you take A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano from 5.00+ ERAs to All-Star caliber arms (and Burnett even made the ASG last year), your bona fides are well established. Make no mistake that it’s a full organizational effort in Pittsburgh that helps turn these talented, but struggling arms into strong rotation (and sometimes bullpen) assets, but one guy tends to get the bulk of the credit as the face of the revolution: pitching coach Ray Searage.

Searage joined the team as the pitching coach in 2011 and he has been the point man for pitching during their incredible turnaround from bottom-feeder to contender. Jon Niese and Juan Nicasio instantly became more fantasy relevant the second they reached Pittsburgh. Niese because he was already a solid major league starter (career 3.93 ERA, three season at 3.71 or better) who could jump into mixed league viability with some refinement and Nicasio because he’s a live arm (mid-90s heat, filthy slider) who could be a few tweaks from being the next Burnett/Liriano.

One of the risks when we see something like this from a team is to just assume it’s always going to work. Reputations can foster laziness so I wanted to look back at Searage’s track record since joining Pittsburgh and see just how well he was doing with the reclamation projects. I found nine instances of eight starters (remember, Burnett left and came back) over the years and looked at their performance in both K%-BB% which highlights skills and ERA+ which measures performance relative to league context.

ERA+ is measured on a scale where higher is better and 100 is average. K%-BB% is simply the rates subtracted and again, higher is better. Average has grown from 10% to 12% league wide since Searage took over, but we’re more focused on what the individual pitcher is doing there as opposed to league averages.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 331 – I Called it Ep #332 For Some Reason

4/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 330 – One Week in the Books

4/10/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section

  • Volatile Closer Situations (21:00)
  • SPs to Consider for Pick-Up (37:30)

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 4/7/16

Thanks for a great chat, see you next week!!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 329 – Cool (Trevor) Story, Bro!

4/6/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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NO TIMESTAMPS BECAUSE I’M A LITTLE TIME CRUNCHED FOR DINNER & SOFTBALL, I’LL TRY TO GET BACK TO IT LATER TONIGHT.

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Standouts

Strategy Section

  • How do you approach early standouts who were drafted late?
    • On your team
    • On other teams (and being made available for trade)
    • On the wire (let’s say 12-team mixer, just right in the middle)

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