Author Archive

Tipping Pitches: Changing My Tune

We are now two months into the season and I’ve definitely evolved my thinking on a number of pitchers. I try not to overreact and change my outlook start-to-start, but we’re getting a relatively worthwhile sample on the books and pitchers are always changing so if you stay married to everything you thought in March, you’re going to get left behind on guys for better and worse. Here are three guys I’ve really changed my tune on so far (and they’ll weirdly all lefties).

Steven Matz is Really Good

I hated Matz’s draft slot coming into the season. I thought he was being way overdrafted as the 30th SP off the board and it was more because of his health than his skills. It felt like a lofty draft status based on six MLB stats. Coming up through the minors, he put up great numbers, but only once topped 106 innings in a season. He was pummeled in his debut after being pushed back to April 11th, but he’s been damn near unhittable since: 1.13 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 49 Ks and 7 BBs in 48 IP. He has three scoreless starts and three where he allowed just 2 ER. A balky elbow caused another layoff in the midst of this run, but he has shown no ill affect with two brilliant starts since returning.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/26/16

The transcript:

2:00
Paul Sporer: We’ll get going very soon.

2:03
Saul: Give me some hope on Buxton and Bregman; I have them stashed in AL only, are both up within the next couple weeks?

2:04
Paul Sporer: Not really sure when they will be up, but they’re super-young, super-talented players. Gotta be patient.

2:04
Rich: my Price ($45) / Abreu($35)/ JP Crawford($2) for his Carassco($10)/ McCullers($10)/ Piscotty ($5) …. 14 team 5×5 , 10 keepers with annual $5 inflation/ $300 budget. Competing this year 4th place so far, need to fix my pitching ratios and top 5 in all O, but also trying to get some cheaper talent as we didn’t have a lot of $ at the draft this year. Still have Cueto(15)/Salazar(10)/Chen(17)/Estrada(2)/Conley(1)/Wright(5) & E5(26)/ Altuve(26) /Donaldson(20) /Villar(10) /Cruz(25) /Park(12)/Parra(14)/Saunders(5)/Inciarte(10) /Bregman(5) –good return?

2:04
Paul Sporer: That’s definitely fair. Plus if you don’t quite win this year, you have keepable options

2:05
fromSleeper2Bust: currently rostering Will Harris & Neris to complement my Ramos, Chapman, Rondon pen in roto. Any better SU guys you’d recommend.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 349 – You’re the Conductor, But I Jumped on the Train

5/25/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 348 – I’m Not Snorting Shoemaker

5/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Seven Game-Changing Middle Relievers

The Strikeout Era has created a burgeoning market for middle relievers over the last few years. There have always been middle relievers with great ratios and vulture win potential, but with strikeouts continually on the rise, a good handful of them have become even mixed league viable with their ability to fan 30%+ of the batters they face. It took some time for fantasy players to adjust, though.

I remember Dellin Betances was out on the wire in many mixed leagues for a large part of his breakout 2014 season even as he logged 135 strikeouts in just 90 innings, more than Rick Porcello (132) and Alfredo Simon (127) logged in 204.7 and 196.3 innings, respectively. Heck, even someone with pretty good stuff (at least back in ’14) like Shelby Miller only fanned 127 in 183 innings that season. After that season, everyone was hot to Betances as he’s was drafted in virtually every mixed league last year and again this year even as Andrew Miller was named the replacement for Aroldis Chapman during his suspension.

Truth be told, I’ve been keen on studly middle relievers for a while now as I like to use a couple at the backend of an AL/NL only league staff instead taking some lame fifth starter who is likely to do more harm than good. The really good ones can have mixed league viability (12+ teams, even Betances isn’t an automatic in 10-teamers) as the wire dries up or if you’re just looking to protect ERA/WHIP while awaiting the return of a DL’d arm or something. Betances, Wade Davis, and Carter Capps have been some of the biggest standouts in this category the last couple of years. Davis has now become a stud closer and Capps was on way to the same fate before losing the year to TJ this spring.

So who are the next guys? I’ve got seven names for you.

By the way, I was going to include Sean Doolittle as he has settled in after a shaky start (15 Ks, 9 base runners, and 1.64 ERA in last 11 IP), but he’s still likely on a lot of teams speculating for saves as Ryan Madson isn’t exactly dominating and taking a stranglehold on the job. But if he’s available, go ahead and scoop Doolittle.

Looking at CBS roster rates, all of these guys are available in 74% or more leagues and because CBS caters to deeper leagues than Yahoo! and ESPN, they are almost certainly more widely available at both of those outlets.

Hector Neris – PHI – 36% K – 19% SwStr – 28% K-BB%

The Phillies bullpen was mess coming into the season with David Hernandez as the assumed closer and not much worth betting on behind him. Hernandez allowed 3 runs without logging an out in his first appearance of the season and it didn’t take long for Jeanmar Gomez to wrest the job from him. Gomez has logged an MLB-high 16 saves, though he’s hardly their best reliever.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 347 – Time to Cut Keuchel?

5/22/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section: Struggling Aces Continue

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/19/16

Thanks for joining me in the marathon 4-hour chat!!
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 346 – Grounder Day

5/18/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section: The Change – Grounder Day

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 345 – Listener Requests!

5/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section: Listener Grab Bag

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 344 – Buy-Low Pitchers

5/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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