6/12/16
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6/10/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Let’s be honest, most sleepers don’t come through in fantasy baseball. At least not the true sleepers, guys picked beyond the 250 mark. There have definitely been some big hits beyond 250 this year: Trevor Story (252), Marco Estrada (273), Rich Hill (288) – although he did just hit the DL, Jackie Bradley Jr. (320), and Carlos Beltran (326) to name a few.
I was reminded of the failure of late sleepers when news of the Chris Coghlan trade came across the wire yesterday during my chat. He was someone I really liked to keep up what he did last year (16 HR, 11 SB) with plenty of playing time available in Oakland. Let’s see what’s going on with him and two other deep sleepers (pick 250 or later) I liked. They’re still asleep, but let’s see if there is hope.
He’s hitting .146/.215/.272 in 172 PA so far. It’s been really rough. Sure, a .170 BABIP is unfavorable and probably due for some regression, but it didn’t just happen to him. His strikeout rate has surged from 19% to 27% with his walk rate dipping from 12% to 8% at the same time. Last year, he made a concerted effort to pull more and untap his power, but his 32% pull rate is his lowest since 2010 (30%) and well below last year’s 42%. He’s also reaching a lot more. His O-swing% is way up at 30% after a 23% rate last year that was 11th-lowest in baseball. He’s also seeing the fewest fastballs of his career at 54%, down from a consistent 57-58% from 2012-15.
Check out the transcript of the chat below:
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6/8/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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6/5/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Approximately 35 minutes of joyous analysis.
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6/3/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Here’s the transcript:
| 2:01 |
: Hey y’all. Let’s get started! Still all bout that Coloring Book right now:
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| 2:01 |
: Would you trade Beltre & Hamilton (Kept in Rd 19) for Blackmon? Beltre and Blackmon cannot be kept. Am I greedy for wanting to get a pick back for Hamilton?
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| 2:01 |
: Josh Hamilton? Yes. He’s useless. I’d do the deal
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| 2:01 |
: Do you find it at all suspicious that Felix hit the DL with a calf strain? Will the few weeks off turn out to be a blessing for The King?
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| 2:02 |
: Not suspicious. if you’re suggested it might be a little trumped up, you may well be right. doesn’t bother me. I was calling for that kind of stint for Harvey, but he might’ve worked through it v. CWS
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| 2:02 |
: Do we see both Bregman and Reed come up in June? Who do you like better long-term?
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6/1/16
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We are now two months into the season and I’ve definitely evolved my thinking on a number of pitchers. I try not to overreact and change my outlook start-to-start, but we’re getting a relatively worthwhile sample on the books and pitchers are always changing so if you stay married to everything you thought in March, you’re going to get left behind on guys for better and worse. Here are three guys I’ve really changed my tune on so far (and they’ll weirdly all lefties).
Steven Matz is Really Good
I hated Matz’s draft slot coming into the season. I thought he was being way overdrafted as the 30th SP off the board and it was more because of his health than his skills. It felt like a lofty draft status based on six MLB stats. Coming up through the minors, he put up great numbers, but only once topped 106 innings in a season. He was pummeled in his debut after being pushed back to April 11th, but he’s been damn near unhittable since: 1.13 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 49 Ks and 7 BBs in 48 IP. He has three scoreless starts and three where he allowed just 2 ER. A balky elbow caused another layoff in the midst of this run, but he has shown no ill affect with two brilliant starts since returning.
