Author: Paul Sporer | Page 228 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Market Watch: Let’s Run It Back

February 28, 2017

The second installment of my new series tracking the NFBC average draft position market will be formatted a little differently and you can let me know which works best. I will still highlight the biggest riser and faller, but then I’ll go position-by-position for a takeaway or two. Let’s see how that works compared to last week’s. Comment below on your preferred method.

Previous Editions:

February 22nd

BIGGEST RISER: Neftali Feliz – +20 spots to pick 307

For the second straight week, the assumed Brewers closer is the big mover up the board. It’s not impossible to see why. His velocity returned last year, surging back to 96 MPH on average, and so did his strikeout (28%) and swinging strike (14%) rates – the latter being a career-best. The home run rate (1.7 HR/9) is worrisome, but a sky-high 19% HR/FB seems unlikely to repeat, even for a flyball pitcher like Feliz. Even with back-to-back big surges up the board, he’s still just 33rd reliever off the board so he’s likely to keep moving up. I suspect he’ll land somewhere in the mid-20s which is still cheap enough to invest, even with his flaws.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 431 – Pitcher Battles; O’s Breakdown

by Paul Sporer

February 27, 2017

2/26/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Tyler Glasnow debut (3:09)
Mitch Haniger SBs (4:33)

Strategy Section: Pitcher Battles

Strategy Section: Baltimore Orioles Breakdown

Does Manny Machado run again? (39:30)
Encore for Mark Trumbo? Trumbo (pick 70) or Chris Davis (pick 83)? (50:40)
Is Welington Castillo their yearly power breakout? (55:15)
Who do you like better for AL-only: Hyun Soo Kim or Seth Smith? (1:00:08)
Betting on a Kevin Gausman breakout or WYSIWYG? (1:02:00)
What do you see for Dylan Bundy? (1:05:40)

IMPACT PROSPECTS (LOL)

Hitters: Chance Sisco, Trey Mancini
Pitchers: Hunter Harvey – recovering from TJ
Anyone else?

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 24th, 2017

by Paul Sporer

February 24, 2017

Chat transcript is available below!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 430 – An Hour and a Half on Jered Weaver to SD!

by Paul Sporer

February 23, 2017

2/23/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

How are you attacking catcher in your drafts this year?
- C rankings

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Jered Weaver to SD!!!!
Matt Wieters to WAS
- Impact on Derek Norris

Strategy Section: Chicago White Sox Breakdown

Better breakout pick: Tim Anderson or Carlos Rodon?
Who plays CF? Charlie Tilson has a stress fracture already.
Better rebound pick: Jose Abreu or Todd Frazier?
Why no love for Melky Cabrera? 63 OF off the board; 34 on Player Rater
Any untapped potential left w/Avisail Garcia or Brett Lawrie?

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February Rankings – Catchers

by Paul Sporer

February 23, 2017

We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Schwarber is C eligible at Yahoo! and has been added to the rankings.

Key:

AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

Previous Editions:

OF
SP
1B
SS
3B
2B

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Market Watch February 22nd: Feliz Flyin’ Up the Board

by Paul Sporer

February 22, 2017

This is a new series for the fantasy draft season where I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following.

(This will usually drop on Monday or Tuesday, but with the rankings roll out, it was delayed a day.)

BIGGEST RISER: Neftali Feliz – up 48 spots to pick 327

He signed in Milwaukee over a month ago, but the market is working down an ADP that was essentially non-existent so I wouldn’t even get comfortable with the 327 average. With a Max Pick of 713, his only value was as a late-round draft pick for the Draft Champions leagues (50-round, draft and hold) before joining the Brewers where he is likely to close. His Min Pick of 167 is only down two spots, so I’m sure it’s a lot of slotting in the 167-200 range that is steadily moving his ADP. That range slots him in the early-20s among relievers, which feels right given the resurgent velocity and strikeout rate plus an opportunity.

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February Rankings – Second Basemen

by Paul Sporer

February 21, 2017

We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Key:

AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

Previous Editions:

OF
SP
1B
SS
3B

Read the rest of this entry »

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 429 – Brewer Breakdown with Derek Van Riper

by Paul Sporer

February 21, 2017

2/20/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

Leading Off: Question of the Day

What are you expectations for Eric Thames?

Strategy Section: Milwaukee Brewers Breakdown

HITTING
- What does Jonathan Villa r do for an encore?
- Is Orlando Arcia ready to be a mixed league asset?
- Can Keon Broxton make enough contact to be a stud?
- Same question for Domingo Santana…
- Jett Bandy or Andrew Susac?
PITCHING
- How good is Junior Guerra?
- Does Zach Davies build on his solid ‘16?
- Any love for Wily Peralta after his finish?
- Mixed viability for any other SPs? Garza, Anderson, Nelson?
- Is Neftali Feliz a sneaky solid closer option late?
IMPACT PROSPECTS
- Hitters: Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips
- Pitchers: Josh Hader, Jorge Lopez
- Anyone else? Lucas Erceg

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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February Rankings – Third Basemen

by Paul Sporer

February 20, 2017

We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Key: