It’s Festivus, the best and most important holiday of the year. Popularized on Seinfeld, Festivus includes The Airing of Grievances, which normally takes place after dinner, but we’re moving it up this year because as Frank Costanza says: “I got a lotta problems with you people, and now you’re going to hear about it!” Frank aptly explains the AoG:  “At the Festivus dinner, you gather your family around, and tell them all the ways they have disappointed you over the past year!”

So we’re virtually gathering the baseball family around and it’s time to let ‘em know what’s what!

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The market hasn’t been all that robust since the last Winter Moves update, but there have been enough moves for another piece. We’re in the holiday lull and probably won’t see much for the next week or so and then a flurry of activity in January.

• Evan Longoria to SF; Christian Arroyo, Denard Span, Stephen Woods, and Matt Krook to TB

Longoria is a Tampa Bay institution, spending his first 10 years there as the foundation of the organization, but now heads out west on the heels of his worst season ever (96 wRC+). Even if the wRC+ jumps back up, it likely won’t net any fantasy benefit given his new park. His last four years have seen 22, 21, 36, and 20 HR all in full seasons so that trend paired with the park should put expectations at a .260/20 HR/80 RBI. In other words, a mixed league corner infielder. The best I can say about this move is at least he’s not a left-handed batter or we might be looking a low-to-mid teens HR output.

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12/21/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• • Zach Britton Ruptured Achilles (5:10)
  • Orioles no longer expect to trade Manny Machado (7:35)
  • Evan Longoria traded to SF (15:00)
  • Martin Perez gets *bulled* over (28:45)
  • Matt Moore traded to TEX (30:00)
  • Mitch Moreland back to BOS (35:00)
  • Matt Adams to WAS (39:55)
  • Yonder Alonso to CLE (43:00)
  • Yovani Gallardo, Jhoulys Chacin to MIL (51:00)
  • J.T. Realmuto requests trade (55:45)

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The NFBC is conducting drafts already and has generated an ADP from nine leagues. We will soon be hosting NFBC ADP here at Fangraphs, but right now it’s only available to those with a league on the site so you’ll have to take my word on these prices. I decided to look at how my Top 50 starters (updated since this October run so don’t get too hung up on those… update coming after the New Year) matched up with the market and highlight some of the biggest discrepancies. Today we’re focused on the guys I like more than the market.

PITCHERS I FAVOR:

Michael Wacha – 45th for me; 72nd in NFBC

Not to undercut the entire premise of this piece, but I have to mention how tight the middle group of starters really is again in 2017. Seeing a 27-spot difference feels stark, but just comparing my own 72nd guy to Wacha – Patrick Corbin – highlights how close it is in that range. That isn’t to say that the rankings don’t matter, there are still factors that will have you preferring one guy over another. I still see upside in the 27-year old (July 1st birthday which has him right on that cusp so he’ll be listed as age-26 some places, age-27 at others) righty for the Cards.

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12/15/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Santana to PHI (0:54)
• Zack Cozart to LAA/Ian Kinsler trade (16:28)
• Marcell Ozuna trade (31:40)
• Stephen Piscotty trade (34:50)
• Freddy Galvis trade (45:45)
• Middle Reliever Bonanza (53:00)
  • Juan Nicasio to SEA
  • Brandon Morrow to CHC
  • Fernando Rodney to MIN
  • Brandon Kintzler back to WAS
  • Hector Rondon to HOU

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Yes, we did get 700 more middle reliever signings, buuttt we also got three trades of note. Meanwhile, these Manny Machado rumors are blazing hot and reports suggest he could be moved as soon as this weekend!

• Marcell Ozuna to STL; Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, Zac Gallen, & Daniel Castano to MIA

Ozuna’s breakout in 2017 might look isolated, but if you check his 2016 splits, you will see that he was having the breakout year through June before a wrist injury sapped his power and curbed production over the second half. Before the injury he had 16 HR and a .948 OPS in 299 PA, but then just 7 HR and a .605 OPS the rest of the way. He was brilliant in 2017 with no worse than an .873 OPS in all six months of the season en route to a 37 HR/.924 OPS campaign. It’d be prudent to bake in some natural regression, but a .290/30/100 season is very believable. Andrew Perpetua digs even deeper on the new Cardinal.

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The Hot Stove is operating a  simmer right now after the busy weekend with Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton. We’re getting a couple moves per day, but they are far from blockbusters. In fact, it’s been a bunch of middle relievers of late with a pair of TJ recovering SPs mixed in. It’s never ending! As I was typing up this paragraph, the Mets agreed to terms with yet another middle reliever.

• Luke Gregerson to STL (2 yr/$11 mil deal)

This is the first piece in a pen rebuild for the Cardinals. Trevor Rosenthal is out with Tommy John recovery so they non-tendered him while Seung Hwan Oh, Juan Nicasio, and Zack Duke are all free agents. Gregerson joins Tyler Lyons and Brett Cecil at the backend of the pen. Alex Reyes will also start the season in the bullpen, but probably as a multi-inning option earlier in games. Gregerson logged 47 saves in three years with Houston, including a 31-save season back in 2015. The Cards could tab the 34-year old as their closer, but I wouldn’t draft him as such right now.

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12/10/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Ohtani signing and the impact on fantasy sites (3:00)
• Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees (33:00)

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12/08/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• • OHTANI SIGNS WITH LAA!!!
  • Dee Gordon traded to SEA
  • Tyler Chatwood to CHC
  • Mike Minor to TEX
  • Mike Fiers to DET
  • Miles Mikolas to STL
  • Brad Boxberger to ARI

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The hot stove is finally rocking! As I’m writing this, Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Angels. I wrote about him yesterday and even though I was hyping my Mariners pick, you can just ignore that part and focus on the ranking and skills assessment. A bevy of moves with fantasy impact took place yesterday, too!

• Tyler Chatwood signed by CHC to a 3-year, $38 million dollar deal

Chatwood was a buzzy free agent this year thanks in part to Mike Petriello showing how he could be this year’s Charlie Morton. The Cubs snatched him up and while I wouldn’t say $12.7 mil is an overpay, I kinda expected him to be more in the $9-10 mil per year level. Of course, all the teams were aware of the things Petriello covered in his piece already so I’m sure there was some competition that pushed him up to that price. His 3.31 career road ERA has gotten a lot of run, as it’s nearly two runs lower than his 5.25 at home, done mostly at Coors Field. Read the rest of this entry »