Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 554 – HanRam DFA’d

5/25/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

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Sporer Report #7 – Zack’s UNGodley Start

Zack Godley enjoyed a surprise breakout season last year that the market bought into, making him a consistent top 35 starter in draft season. Once news of the humidor was finalized, he became even more appealing as we figured he’d be pitching half his games in an even better environment. After a thrashing at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday (3.3 IP/6 ER), he’s up to 4.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 55.7 innings. Let’s take a look at the 28-year old righty through 10 starts and see what’s going on.

Usually we look immediately at velocity when a pitcher is struggling so let’s start there. It can be indicative of an injury, but even if it’s not signaling a health issue, it’s obviously better to have higher velocity in most cases. Godley’s is down across the board. His fastball velocity has dipped from 91.9 mph to 90.2 this year. There are also dips on all of his secondary pitches: -1.7 mph to 81.7 with the curveball, -1.1 to 88.8 with the cutter, and -2.6 to 81.4 with the change (though he barely used it last year and is using it even less this year at 5%).

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Leaderboarding: Third Time Through

Getting through a lineup three times is a bit of a lost art these days with both the rise of the bullpens and starters going 100% every at-bat from the jump which often drains the tank right around the time that batters are getting a third look. We often hear about the guys who struggle the third time through and we don’t always see those who are good at it highlighted for the success. Of course, the studs of the game do it well and that’s what makes them the studs, but there are definitely some surprises having TTT success. Let’s look at both ends of the spectrum today, starting with the duds.

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Paul Sporer Impromptu Chat!

Transcript is below!

3:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Chatting on a Tuesday to fill in for Brad. Miiiight still do a second later this week, but stay tuned on that. Let’s talk some baseball!

3:03

THE Average Sports Fan: Is there any hope for Ian Desmond?

3:04

Paul Sporer: Maybe a little, but that batted ball profile is awful. I’ve lost a lot of the faith I had in Desmond

3:04

Greg: Thoughts on Jesus Augilar?

3:05

Paul Sporer: Interesting power bat who should probably be on a roster in all leagues at least why Braun is out

3:05

Andy: 12 team league.  You starting Caleb Smith at the Mets tonight?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 553 – RankCast Fireyside Chat w/Nick Pollack

5/21/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Biggest Ranking Disputes

Nick Higher:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 552 – Two-Starts & Twitter

5/20/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 551 – The SP Ranking Update

5/18/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 18th, 2018

Check the chat transcript below!

2:32

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball!!!

2:34

Paul Sporer: Seeing Kendrick Lamar, SZA, and Schoolboy Q tonight!

2:34

David B.: Sup Paul!

2:34

Paul Sporer: Yo!

2:34

ryan: My pitchers are Nola, Paxton, Wood, Godley, Quintana, Heaney, Flaherty, Pivetta and Ross.

Drop any for Velasquez, Weaver, Maeda , Mahle or Cahill?

2:36

Paul Sporer: Nah, I think I’d stick with that crew. Here are my updated rankings btw – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mid-may-starting-pitcher-rankings-up…

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Mid-May Starting Pitcher Rankings Update

I promised an update to the May rankings and it’s here! When ranking 125+ players (130 last time, down to 125 here), I obviously don’t have up-to-minute stats and performance memorized on everyone so while I felt pretty good about the groupings everyone was in, there were some individual rankings that needed work. I also added another tier at the top for the stone cold fantasy aces. It’s a tight group, but it gets them separation from the must-starts because I think people still bug out when seeing Chris Sale and Tyson Ross in the same tier and I understand that.

I do think the Must-Start tier is important, though, because one of the unintended consequences of the information age for fantasy baseball is the overwhelming desire to see every start as actionable. Some guys you just have to start through the ebbs and flows of a season, even after a few clunky starts. Not every bad start is the beginning of the end for a pitcher. Conversely, every gem from some 4th or 5th starter isn’t the emergence of a new stud.

I can’t imagine it’d really be possible to do, but I’d love to see a study on team ERAs in fantasy pre- and post-internet. I’m sure pre-internet saw established guys given a longer leash as there were often weeks in between updates (the first fantasy league I was ever in started in 1989 and ran stats every other week) and similar time periods between pickups. Anyway, here’s the update! As always, heed the tier over the # ranking and let me know what you think in the comments down below!

The tiers are as follows:

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The Slate – May 16th, 2018

Note: This post was scheduled for the early morning, but didn’t go through. If I do this again it the future, it will post in the morning. 

A look at the most interesting pitching performances from last night and what I’m looking forward to on Wednesday’s slate.

About Last Night

Some quick thoughts on the most interesting starts of yesterday:

Jordan Lyles (7.3 IP/0 ER) was perfect for 22 outs before a Trevor Story base hit. A walk to Pat Valaika immediately after ended his excellent day. It was Lyles’ second strong start since joining the rotation, but his big outing further underscores the issues against righties for the Rockies offense. Their 64 wRC+ versus righties is dead last in the league and their 25% strikeout rate is fifth highest. As for Lyles, he is throwing 94 mph (a career-high) and his curveball is working as well as ever. He was second to only Thor with 16 swinging strikes on Tuesday. He’s got the Dodgers and Nationals both on the road in a two-start setup next week. Let’s give him a shot.

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