It’s been about a month since the All-Star break and we’ve seen a host of interesting arms put up excellent ERAs. Some of them are just studs being studs (Max Scherzer 1.32, Carlos Carrasco 1.56, Rich Hill 1.78, Aaron Nola 2.16, Trevor Bauer 2.21, and Clayton Kershaw 2.23), but others have come from unexpected sources so let’s look under the hood of those guys to see what’s up.

(listed in ascending order of ERA)

Trevor Williams, PIT | 0.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 24 IP

Williams has the best qualified ERA over the last 30 days (Chris Sale has a 0.00 ERA in that time, but only 17 IP), but there’s nothing supporting it. His insane 98% LOB rate is doing virtually all of the heavy lifting. Obviously, any sustained period of sub-1.00 ERA performance is going to have some outlier metrics involved and it’s usually going to involve a mix of peak skills and good luck, but it ranges from average to truly bleak outside of the LOB rate.

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8/12/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Nick and Paul each highlight one overrated and underrated arm for the stretch run

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8/10/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Lance McCullers out a month (5:06)
• Kenley Jansen out a month (10:50)
• Aaron Judge unsure when he’ll swing a bat (15:00)
• Fernando Rodney to OAK (17:20)
• Felix Hernandez to the pen (21:12)

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Transcript is below!

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8/9/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• Perusing the Triple-A leaderboards for some AVG, HR, and SB standouts who could be called up down the stretch.

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I put out the NL Schedule Planner a couple days ago and today we have the American League. I ran some numbers to identify the best and worst offenses by handedness and perhaps this can offer some guidance for you down the stretch when selecting starters. I looked at wOBA for the year, last 30 days, and last 14 days, then weighted the three, and ranked the teams.

The recent samples are smaller and thus more volatile, but they also can reflect the changing dynamics of a team via injuries or trades. That said, I still weighted the season mark the most. This is just focused on handedness so be mindful of potential park factors that could also play a role. It’s sorted by division and record and then the scheduled teams are listed in order starting with Friday, August 10th.

The best use for these planners would be to focus on the arms in the spot start tiers or lower who are getting favorable or unfavorable schedules and leverage that in pick ups or drops… or trades if your league hasn’t hit the deadline yet. For example, the Blue Jays are going to face one Top 10 offense against righties in the next eight series so perhaps Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada can get on track and Ryan Borucki could definitely stay hot, but then they get Cleveland (4), Boston (2), and New York (10) in a row starting September 6th so those same righties could be tough to trust in the playoffs for H2H leagues.

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Let’s take a look at the Triple-A pitching leaderboards for five who could get an unexpected call up, either to fill an August need or when rosters expand to 40 in September. By the way, no one who has already appeared in the majors this year will be included here. Sorry, Adam Plutko (1.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP)!

Josh James | HOU | 25 years old, 3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27% K-BB in 77 IP

James didn’t make Eric Longenhagen’s Houston prospect list this preseason, but he’s been the king of Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five series this year, appearing on the list 10 times. The Astros have used the same five starters all year so none of their minor leaguers have gotten a shot, but Lance McCullers Jr. just hit the disabled list. He could be back before they need a fifth starter, but keep James in mind should a longer-term slot open up.

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With just under two months left in the season, playing to the schedule is a big factor in fantasy baseball so I ran some numbers to identify the best and worst offenses by handedness and perhaps this can offer some guidance for you down the stretch when selecting starters. I looked at wOBA for the year, last 30 days, and last 14 days, then weighted the three, and ranked the teams.

The recent samples are smaller and thus more volatile, but they also can reflect the changing dynamics of a team via injuries or trades. That said, I still weighted the season mark the most. This is just focused on handedness so be mindful of potential park factors that could also play a role. It’s sorted by division and record and then the scheduled teams are listed in order starting with Wednesday, August 8th. Today we’ve got the Senior Circuit:

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8/5/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Co-Host
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I’ll have much more on these rankings next week. The pitching landscape is in a rough spot right now and the talent globs are more indistinguishable than ever. The second you start to feel comfortable with someone, they trash your line with a dud or three. Stay tuned for more info to help separate these globs in our final two months of the season.

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