Author Archive

The 10: Assessing the Early Batter Breakouts

We’re still not a full month into the season, but a group of hitters are standing out atop the leaderboards ranging from superstar to fill-in. This week the “The 10” looks at a group that is reaching a level well beyond expectations thus far to see how they’re doing it and whether or not it can sustain at a fantasy-relevant level.

Yoan Moncada, White Sox | .314 AVG, 19 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB in 93 PA

Moncada’s first full season didn’t exactly live up to expectations as he hit just .235 with 17 HR and 12 SB while leading baseball with 217 strikeouts. A breakdown of his bountiful strikeout rate showed that he had the most called third strikes last year (85), just a stunning amount. Jeremy Frank of MLBRandomStats highlighted this fact as well as the fact that Moncada hasn’t struck out looking yet this year:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 676 – The New York Justin Masons Sustain Another Injury

4/22/19

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 675 – Fireside Chat: On Sonny Gray & Luke Weaver

4/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 19th, 2019

Transcript is below!

12:04

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! My new Starting Pitcher ranks are live so this would be a great chance to ask questions about them if you have any: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/

12:04

Big Tuna : After the call up, in leagues are you looking at Chavis? 12 tm OPS?

12:05

Paul Sporer: Not sure there is going to be enough playing time for 12-teamers, though he did play some 2B in the minors

12:05

Anders: 14 team points league, would you drop any of Tim Beckham, Hunter Dozier, Vogelbach, or Mazara for Yandy Diaz/Avisail Garcia? I’d love to make room for them, good problem to have I suppose.

12:06

Paul Sporer: Ya it is a good problem to have as I’d probably just roll with what I’ve got in that situation

12:06

Freddy Mac: Would you still hold Laureano in a 12 teamer? The K/BB is atrocious

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 674 – SP Ranking Disputes

4/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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April Starting Pitcher Rankings

It’s time to update the rankings. This is an especially tough ranking this early into the season because we have 3-4 starts for most guys and I don’t want to overreact… or underreact for that matter. My thoughts from March on these guys still carries a lot of weight, but factors like velocity, pitch mix, and role can influence a big change. The performances carry weight, too, but I try to temper what I’ll do based on three starts.

Pay attention to the tier! If I didn’t rank someone as high as you thought I should, but they are still a must or usually start, then it’s probably not worth freaking out too much. Those tiers mean they are in the rotation pretty much all the time. I’m open to debating slotting, too, but worrying about a 4-spot difference between two guys in the same tier is probably a waste of time. I’ll have some more extensive notes on a host of big movers coming soon (likely early next week as I probably won’t have time on Friday).

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The 10: Middle Relievers On the Rise

I love middle relievers in fantasy baseball. I play in a lot of deeper formats where they are viable as staff supplements even if Holds isn’t a category so I’m always looking out for the next big thing. I’m not completely averse to buying a Josh Hader (although that might be a bad example this year as he’s been the de facto closer with Corey Knebel out for the year and Jeremy Jeffress yet to debut), Dellin Betances, or this year’s draft darling, Ryan Pressly, but a major key to the value of middle relievers is that they’re cheap. Finding the next Hader, Betances, or Pressly is much more useful and can often be done on the fly in-season.

With today’s tattered starting pitcher landscape, middle relievers are as popular as ever, so we need to get the jump on the next big thing since more eyes are searching for them. It’s only April 16th so reliever samples are especially small as only 20 guys have even 10 innings, but I’ve still got my eye on 10 middle men who could help stop the bleeding for those of us toting the obscene ERAs of Carlos Carrasco (12.60), Nick Pivetta (9.45), Chris Sale (9.00), Walker Buehler (8.25), Zack Wheeler (7.47), Aaron Nola (7.45), Corey Kluber (6.16), and more. Some of these guys could even become their team’s closer which would only add to their fantasy value, but that is not a major consideration for this list.

Diego Castillo, TB | 30% K, 10% BB, 14% SwStr, .111 AVG in 9 IP

Castillo is part of a 1-2 punch at the backend of Tampa Bay’s bullpen with closer Jose Alvarado. The righty/lefty duo (Castillo being the righty) had strong seasons in 2018, too, and came into the season battling for the closer’s role. Alvarado won out, but Castillo is a key part of the bridge to the ninth and has already nabbed five Holds in his eight appearances.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 673 – Vogelvicius FAAB Pickups

4/15/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 672 – Fireside Chat: On Nick Pivetta

4/12/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Fireside Chat:

Breaking Down Nick Pivetta

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 12th, 2019

Chat transcript is now available.

1:05

Paul Sporer: It’s time to talk some baseball! Thanks for coming out, everyone!!

1:05

ke’bryan mays hayes: Joe Musgrove owns. Thoughts?

1:06

Paul Sporer: Agreed, but I really don’t like “thoughts?” questions… it’s not really a question. You had the benefit of being first in the chat. I love Musgrove, though.

1:07

John: When do GB rates stabilize for the year?

1:07

Paul Sporer: About 70 batted balls

1:09

John: Paul help me with Desmond.  Is he droppable or should I ride this out?  GB rate is down 20 points but all statcast measures look terrible.

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