11/03/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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DIGGING INTO NICK’S RANKINGS

• Nick’s Ranks
• Jack Flaherty
• Tyler Glasnow
• Lance Lynn
• Andrew Heaney
• Mitch Keller

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As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 51 minutes of joyous analysis.

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11/01/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Nelson Cruz $12 mil picked up
• Welington Castillo traded to TEX
• Mike Matheny to KC
  • Adalberto Mondesi/Whit Merrifield value

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Some of the best draft day values can be injured arms who missed all or most of the previous season, taking them off the radar of many fantasy mangers. Some of these guys will fly up draft boards with a strong spring, but others will remain afterthoughts throughout draft season. Here are 10 injured arms to keep in mind for 2020:

Lance McCullers Jr. | Tommy John surgery (Nov ’18)

By having his TJ in November of 2018, McCullers will get the extended 16-month recovery time before returning. This will give him a chance at a full season in 2020, though it’s worth noting that his MLB-high is 128.3 innings so he has to show that he can make it through a full 30 starts in the first place. His #TooEarlyMock (TEM) price was 253 on average (71st among SPs), but it will rise quite a bit with a healthy spring. McCullers is a great target for early drafters on price alone.

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10/29/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2020 OUTFIELDER DISCUSSION

• Top 25
  • The Top 4 (5:00)
  • Rest of the Top 10 (7:45)
  • Charlie Blackmon/Starling Marte (8:20)
  • Eloy Jiménez (9:25)
  • Victor Robles (10:27)
  • Ketel Marte (11:30)
  • Whit Merrifield (14:50)
  • Austin Meadows (15:55)
  • Notable Omissions (17:48)
    • Marcell Ozuna (18:01)
    • Andrew Benintendi (18:48, 22:18)

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10/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Game 1 review
• David Ross to manage CHC

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The brilliant Astros rookie DH Yordan Alvarez is a near-lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year next month, but he has labored through the playoffs with just a .171/.227/.244 and a lone RBI in 44 PA. After posting a .313/.412/.655 line with 27 HR and 78 RBI in 369 regular season plate appearances, he was expected to a key part of the deep Houston lineup.

Instead, he has started to move down in the lineup (5th in the first 7 games; 6th or 7th in 4 since) and will likely be an easy sit for the Astros for the games in Washington. He may have sat anyway, but if he was raking, it would’ve at least been a tough decision. So what have the Rays and Yankees done to slow the electric rookie?

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The hot corner definitely carries some depth with some major names checking in a lot lower than you might expect. There is a lot of multi-eligibility at the position, though, so you could feasibly roster several 3B and put them elsewhere on your roster.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B
• 2B
• SS

Let me know what you think in the comments.
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I covered the first 12 rounds of my AFL draft last week and today I’ll show the rest that we did in Arizona. We will finish the remaining 27 rounds online in January.

13.193 – Scott Kingery | OF/3B, PHI

I liked the positional flexibility and power-speed capability here with Kingery. His 2018 was a flop (.605 OPS) and while he couldn’t sustain his early-2019 success (.889 1H), he still hit eight homers and stole 10 bases in the second half. I still think there’s more here, but a full season of 2019 would essentially be a 20/20 season.

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10/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Joe Maddon to LAA
• Buck Showalter candidate for NYM/PHI
  • Are tms trending back toward classic mgr?
• Who does gm4 rainout help more?

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The Arizona Fall League moved up the Fall Stars game to mid-October this year which in turn moved up Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum conference. As you may know if you’ve been following me for a while, we conduct some early NFBC Draft and Hold leagues out there where we select our first 23 players live and then finish the remaining 27 rounds online in January. This is always fun because of how fresh we are off the regular season and it’s interesting to see how much recency bias owns the draft. Plus, there’s the bonus of being at the AFL meaning some of the prospects on the cusp get pushed up as well.

Here’s a quick rundown of my first 23 picks conducted out of the 13 spot. I’ve long aimed for a late pick in order to be early in the first round (actually the 24th) when we resume in January as news and moves often create some big-time values to be garnered that late in the draft.

1.13 – Justin Verlander | SP, HOU

I figured picking late would leave looking at a starter in the first round and I have no problem with that. There is some trepidation with taking a 37-year old pitcher for some, but I don’t share those reservations because there is literally nothing in Verlander’s profile that makes him look like a risk outside of his age.

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