I remember entering 2020 drafts thinking the UT-only pool was interesting given some star power headlining it and some sneaky later round guys who could earn eligibility elsewhere but still had to be drafted in the UT spot. It’s always been a soft market given that a lot of fantasy managers are afraid to fill the UT spot too early. OK, maybe “afraid” is overstating it, but they are certainly reluctant to do so just in case a late round gem at a position they already have filled comes available.

It turns out that 2020 had nothing on this 2021 UT-only market. It’s booming! The NFBC is using 7 games in 2020 for eligibility so keep that in mind as we look at this pool. First, a quick look back at the 2020 UT-only factors:

• Nelson Cruz – 66
• Yordan Alvarez – 128 (after getting COVID & knee issues arose)
• Shohei Ohtani – 144
• Khris Davis – 184
• Miguel Andújar – 273
• Nick Solak – 284

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Earlier this week, I wrote up a team of guys who could be top 75 players next year. It is a different way to write about breakouts and I want to run it back today with some deeper breakouts. These guys have a real shot at being top 150 players in 2021 which for reference is where guys like Jorge Soler and Yasmani Grandal are being drafted meaning these would be high impact pieces of your team if they panned out.

Max Stassi, C 336 ADP

His awesome 2020 was undercut by only playing 31 games so you may not have noticed that he hit 7 HR and 20 RBI with a .278/.352/.533 line in 105 PA. With Jason Castro gone, the job is clear for Stassi to take on full time and sit just once a week for rest. Stassi has a strong glove reputation and the bat might be catching up.

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11/19/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Robinson Canó’s awful choices (6:33)
• Cody Bellinger shoulder surgery (13:39)

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Transcript is live!

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11/17/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Drew Smyly to ATL (2:40)

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In a recent episode of the podcast, I spoke with Alex Fast about some potential breakout starting pitchers at different levels and I really enjoyed that so I want to do the same for hitting. Today, we are going to identify some players who be the next Top 75 players. Just to give you an idea of that range, hitters like Pete Alonso and Adam Duvall were just inside in the Top 75 while Eric Hosmer and Kevin Pillar were juuust outside. So these are solid fantasy contributors for sure.

Sean Murphy, C | 205 ADP, 280 Player Rater

Murphy has been strong in two small MLB samples, totaling exactly 200 PA of a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. The 27% K rate is born of no plan at the dish or a stark inability to make contact meaning there could be some improvement there, pushing his .237 AVG northward. The power will drive this profile and be a huge factor in whether or not he can reach this level while he also needs to be much closer to his MiLB .267 AVG, too.

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11/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 2B PREVIEW

On the Rise

• Jake Cronenworth (5:00)
• Dylan Moore (13:17)
• Tommy Edman (24:12)
• Nick Madrigal (31:00)
• Nick Solak (37:50)
• Gavin Lux (42:00)
• Andrés Giménez (47:37)
• Garrett Hampson (52:12)
• Ty France (55:55)

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11/11/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 BREAKOUT STARTERS

Top 50 (Overall player, not SP) Going Pick 90-150 (5:00)

• Paul: Pablo López
• Alex: Lance McCullers Jr.

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11/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Managerial news

2021 2B Preview

Stars

• Ozzie Albies
• DJ LeMahieu
• Whit Merrifield

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The 60-game season fostered a lot of unexpected stat lines. Of course, the standard six-month seasons deliver them, too, but obviously the smaller sample breeds more volatility so let’s take a look at four big risers and see if we want to buy in for 2021.

Alex Dickerson, OF SFG | .298/.371/.576, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 28 R, 0 SB in 170 PA

Let’s get this out of the way immediately. He did get 30% of his home runs in one beautiful night at Coors Field, but that alone didn’t sustain his line. In his final 66 PA after the 3-homer game, he hit .356/.424/.627 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 12 R. He did have a meager .694 OPS in the run up to that career night, but a .231 BABIP was doing some heavy lifting there as he was still pacing toward a useful 22 HR/76 RBI full season.

His massive platoon split tempers the fantasy upside. He has a .278/.348/.514 line with 24 HR, 81 RBI, 84 R, and 4 SB in 551 PA v. righties while posting just a .687 OPS in 102 PA v. lefties. This will likely keep him relegated to a platoon role with guys like Austin Slater and Darin Ruf 러프 filling in for Dickerson against lefties. As such, it makes Dickerson a deeper league option.

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