• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

—

I messed around with some color-coding but I can’t promise that it’ll be consistent.

Dollander has got me breaking my “No Rockies Pitchers” credo. He still hasn’t figured out Coors (because no one does), but he’s surviving there enough to pick some selective home starts so far. His worst outing (6 ER v. ATL) was super easy to skip given how well the Braves have hit this year and most didn’t have him for his 4 IP/4 ER debut so those on the Dollander Train could reasonably have a 1.60 ERA and 39 Ks in 33.7 IP. Even if you got cute and ran the ATL outing, you’re still likely doing fine with him. He has a standout swing-and-miss profile with a 106 STF+ (17th in MLB), running the same 4 pitches to both sides at varying frequencies: four-seamer 37% total, sinker 24%, slider 15%, and changeup 11% (that’s the hierarchy v. both sides, too) and a show-me curve at 8%. It’s fueled a 26% K rate which helps him survive his 9% BB rate.

Before digging in, I wondered if maybe his BB rate trended higher at home with the idea being that he has to nibble more given how dangerous it is to pitch in Coors, but that isn’t happening at all. He’s toting just a 7% mark at home and an 11% on the road. Walks have always been part of his game as he’s never had a stop below 9% and was at 11% during his 98 IP debut last year, equal home and away, meaning I don’t think he has earned the 7% at home as a skill change and if/when it moves back to 9%+, it will likely cut him down to half a starter as primarily a road-only guy. I’m happy to run him at PIT even with them doing very well versus righties this year, but I’m a little skeptical on slamming his 2-step v. TEX/at ARI next week. He runs worse versus lefties (4% K-BB) and TEX will likely bring at least 5 to Coors. That start could really go south. The upshot is that the Rockies have shown that they’ll let him go when he’s rolling so he could drop the hammer on ARI with a 6-7 IP gem. If you can’t afford a likely 1-up, 1-down where the latter could smother former, then don’t chase this. The downside is something like a 10 IP week with poor ratios and 8-10 Ks and then upside is a potential gem week of 12+ IP with great ratios and 12+ Ks.

Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks for coming out!!

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

—

This is the pivot start for Valdez. OK, that’s not entirely true. It’s the start of a pivot point because I know I won’t `sit him for a CLE/at BAL 2-step next week even if this goes south. This is such a perfect spot for him to get on track with the Mets ranking 30th in wOBA and only walking 7.8% of the time against lefties. While the taste of his second Super Dud (7 ER v. BOS) still lingers, it’s worth remembering he had a 2.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his four starts before that… and of course his first Super Dud (8 ER at MIN) right before it. The 15 ER in 8 IP and perhaps more damagingly the 2.75 WHIP have snuffed out his 3.06 ERA/1.10 WHIP in his other six. It’s still just a 13% K-BB in the good starts so that needs to improve to feel comfortable about him being the guy we drafted, but the bottom line is I’m going to ride it out through next week before any sit considerations.

• Ohtani, Miz, and Cease highlight Wednesday’s slate as three of the best strikeout guys in the game so far this year.
• Messick’s Ks still feel a bit hot relative to his true talent, but who am I to argue with some extra punchies? He’s rounded himself into a must-start with leeway even when he inevitably has a couple tough ones.
• Old Detmers pokes through on occasion as he has 15 BB all year with 10 confined to a pair starts, including 6 last time out. Would love to see a rebound but sticking with him through the 2-start at the very least.
• Gray was solid in his first start off the IL and is another 4-5 starts away from any major decisions; the Ks are abysmal right now with 2 or fewer in each of his last 4 and if his K% doesn’t start to improve within this next handful of starts then we can start questioning him in shallower formats.
• It’s a tight group of 2-x’ers as I can squint to see ’em in 10s. They’re not locks for a bevy of reasons – Lodolo (2nd start off IL), Scott (sample), Nelson (severe volatility), Schultz (K-BB), Lugo (WHIP), and Keller (modest core skills) – but if you need someone in a shallow league, they have their merits.
• Irvin, Rocker, and Painter are standard streamers thanks to their opponents but if you want to avoid another WHIP bludgeoning, I get it.
• Bradish is coming off a 10-K game and catching NYY at a halfway decent time. They’re just 14th in wOBA vR over the last two weeks so perhaps Bradish can stay hot. Far from a must-start, but the ATH gem kept him off the wire for a few more.
• Ritchie hasn’t earned enough trust for a matchup like CHC.
• Miller looked great in his rehab stint but I’d still like to see something before diving in… the current setup is for him to open for Luis Castillo next week and then a 2-step after that. I’m down to pick him up and hold.
• Jax made it 4 IP last time out… they didn’t go super well (2 ER, 5 base runners) but a season-high 59 pitches and if they keep stretching him out, this could turn into something.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

—

Short slate + no Tigers = early crashout for me. Not that kind of crashout as it’s used today, but I passed out before the SFG-LAD game started. Anyway, let’s get into it.

No one thought Trevor Rogers was a true talent sub-2.00 ERA guy but an immediate return to his uninspiring 2024 levels wasn’t quite the expectation, either. I’m sure he had some detractors who weren’t buying into him but with a Top 40 SP price tag there was real excitement for his follow-up to last year’s rise back to prominence. Three starts in – all Quality Starts – he was looking like a bargain with a 1.89 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 19 IP. The 12% K-BB left something to be desired, but the results were great. Were.

Since then he has three straight losses with results deserving of such a fate (9.73 ERA/2.16 WHIP) and yet his K-BB is up two ticks to 14%. Each start has featured one bad inning doing most of the damage as he’s piled up 3 HR and 5 BB during the 11.3 IP of destruction. The poor run was followed by an IL stint for a wicked flu which he’s returning from today with a remarkably difficult Yankees matchup on tap. Drafted as a set-it-and-forget arm, Rogers now holds a 4.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP through six starts and can reasonably be sat this week, but I still wouldn’t cut him anywhere yet, instead preferring to hold for the at TBR/DET 2-step next week before making any moves. Obviously any success against NYY would be great, but even a Dud against them wouldn’t completely rule out taking a shot on the 2-step.

The rest of the board:

• McClanahan hasn’t allowed a run for 16.7 IP over his L3 after a 5.00 ERA through his first 4 during which he only reached 5 IP once. He’s made it through 5 IP in all 3 of the recent outings, despite averaging fewer pitches per game (76 v. 80 in his F4) and surprisingly being removed after just 69 pitches in 5.7 v. TOR.
• Pérez gets a 2-step this week and if we don’t see some improvements, it’s time to reassess how we’re using him week-to-week. I still have a hard time seeing any cuts barring a truly horrendous week but some strategic sits could be on the docket if he gives us another pair of mediocre outings. On the plus side, he has at least 5 IP and 6 Ks in each of his L4 despite the blah-inducing 4.64 ERA.
• The 2-x board is sketchy as hell today. I don’t love running Springs at home but STL is way better vR and they don’t really take advantage of his biggest weakness – homers. Their 2.5% HR rate is middle of the pack against southpaws, but obviously that park in Sacramento can certainly raise their HR chances.
• I admittedly get nervous every time I recommend Corbin, but he’s putting up the numbers! After 4 ER in his season debut, he’s allowed just 8 ER total in 5 starts since, never topping 2 in any of ’em. Now that comes with just a 10% K-BB so I’d say he’s at best a mid-4.00s true talent arm.
• Maybe Gore isn’t fixed with his move to TEX. He had a 2.76 ERA through 3 starts and even survived a 6-BB outing at ATH (4.7 IP/2 ER) but he’s been horrendous since: 7.58 ERA/1.54 WHIP/9% K-BB in 19 IP.
• Flaherty isn’t fully back in my good graces after his 10 Ks v. BOS, but getting NYM gives him a chance for another big start here so he’s at 2-x today and I could even see a longshot stream in 10s because of his K upside and New York’s awful season so far.
• Kolek-Ober-Sproat-Singer are essentially 1.5 x’s… I’m not totally committed to running them in 12s, but they’re more in that 50-50 realm in those formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

Eovaldi’s season is a great example of why we can’t aggressively react to every single outing, particularly from well-established arms. He opened with 11 ER in just 8.7 IP but then 2 ER in his next 13 IP (so now a 5.40 ERA in 4 starts). Then a 3rd Dud of the year, this time 6 ER v. ATH saddles him w/a 5.79 ERA thru 6 and wellll, you start thinkin “he is 36 with a lengthy injury history and he’s lined up for NYY 2x in a row so maaaybe he needs to be cu–” NO! Dude has a 3.40 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 736 IP since 2021, he gets more than 6 starts before any reaction. I was only getting some start/sit stuff on Eovaldi, but you know he was getting cut in some 10s and 12s where he had no business hitting the wire off what we’d seen.

His 16% K-BB was fine and his 14% SwStr said the 22% K should rise. His velocity was even up a half tick, which isn’t significant enough to drive improvement, but assuages health fears from the oft-injured vet. There was just nothing in his profile that said this was anything more than a few bad starts. Fast forward 15 IP of 1-run ball later during which he fanned 15, walked 1, and allowed just a single homer in those two NYY starts and he’s down to a far more palatable 4.15 ERA/1.18 WHIP combo. Just because we’ve flipped the calendar to May doesn’t mean numbers won’t still move severely off 2-3 starts. Stay diggin’ in those gamelogs to get a true feel of a pitcher’s season and as always, use the skills profile to make hold/cut assessments, not just their surface ERA.

The rest of the board:

• Rasmussen’s up 5 pitches/start v. last year and while that’s not a ton, it’s enough him to log at least 5 IP in 6 of 7 starts with the one he missed just being a rough outing.
• Weathers is outrunning a 1.4 HR9 that would normally give me a lot of pause, but he’s looking like a lefty version of Joe Ryan where his skills profile can sustain the elevated HRs. He’s an easy all-formats rotation lock right now and we’ll adjust if the HRs do start to pose a problem.
• Soroka rebounded with a 6.3 IP/1 ER gem v. PIT though that was the lone run in a 1-0 game so he ate the L but it was nice to see him back on track after the 8 ER Dud at MIL.
• Cantillo/Lambert are interesting-but-dangerous arms as both are running 12% BB rates that will breed volatility, but I’d still take either of them in a 12 over Sasaki despite his far better matchup.
• McDonald gets one of the worst 2-start setups you can concoct with a trip to ATH looming on the weekend after this LAD start.

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5/8/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live.

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

YOUTUBE

• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show and more!
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK7 (May 11th)

• AUTO-START: Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, George Kirby, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Nathan Eovaldi, Zack Wheeler, Freddy Peralta, Shane McClanahan, Michael King, Ryan Weathers, Eury Pérez (?), Cole Ragans (?)
• Michael Soroka at TEX, at COL
• Trevor Rogers NYY, at WAS
• JR Ritchie CHC, BOS
• Joey Cantillo LAA, CIN 18:40
• Jeffrey Springs STL, SFG 22:10

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

• Alright, we have a ton of 3-x’ers today and they’re definitely not created equally so I want to break that group down in a bit more detail.
• Easy studs: Fried, Luzardo, McLean, Cease, Sale, Miz, and Ray – the ones you don’t need detail on to know they’re starts
• New 3s: I can’t ignore Hancock’s 1.5 HR9 and 93% LOB rates but there is a foundation to work with here (29% K, 4% BB, 12% SwStr – all far and away career bests) so we’re riding the the train; Detmers has brought his RP skills to his SP role wholesale with an equal 21% K-BB, though constructed more soundly trading 4 pts of K% for -4 of BB%. The 6% HR/FB will regress but these skills will soften the blow and he’s a rotation staple right now; Messick-Bubic-Burke is a rising AL Central trio who closed strong last yr and have rolled the success over into 2026 so far making them all easy starts right now; Burke might be a little fringier in 10s, but Messick/Bubic are all systems go
• Sketchy 3s: Prielipp needs more than 3 starts to join his AL Central brethren but the early returns are strong; Montero’s .245 BABIP and 0.8 HR9 are helping squeeze a 3.48 ERA out of these skills (14% K-BB) and I’m open to running him at KCR; regression is coming for Griffin, particularly his .220 BABIP and 84% LOB, but I willing to bet he can stave it off another start with a trip to MIA; I’m not moving off Dollander for a rough one v. ATL and he’s catching PHI hitting even worse than their full-season line (hopefully he gets an opener again!); Sheehan gets that tough ATL lineup now and while the 21% K-BB is excellent, the 1.7 HR9 looms large against the MLB HR leader against righties… one silver lining is being on LAD gives him a chance to struggle a bit but still net the W as long as he goes 5 IP; 14 ER in 5.3 IP is going to stain Nelson’s ERA for a whiiiile but he rebounded at CHC and NYM hasn’t given us any reason to avoid them with streamers; Mlodzinski’s 18% K-BB is 10th best on the board today but I just don’t see how a 9% SwStr can sustain that 26% K rate and yet we’re obviously not turning down this trip to SFG; Early hasn’t quite lived up to expectations despite the decent ERA (3.79), so it’s time to show something in this next 3-start run (TBR, PHI, at KCR) or else the ATL might need to be skipped
• I’m ready to get hurt by Canning again! I will say that we need to be a little tighter with streaming against STL as they sit 10th vR on the year and they’re riding high at 1st over the L2 wks
• It’s Lodolo’s season debut so of course do what you will with first starts off the IL; his rehab did go very well with a 34% K-BB in 12 IP so there has at least been some ramp up
• If you want to run McGreevy in a 10, it’s not crazy at SDP but this is pure run-hot; all the ERA indicators are north of 4.00 and his xERA is at 5.77!!
• Holding Bradish and Rocker in 15s comes down to the fact that there probably just isn’t anyone better on the wire but they surely haven’t done anything to earn the roster spot
• Snelling is a premium prospect making his MLB debut on Friday! Paddack was DFA’d so if this goes well, he’s going to stay in the rotation

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5/7/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live.

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

YOUTUBE

• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show and more!
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Skubal revisit with new news 0:00

SLOW STARTS JUDGED TOO SOON

• Nolan Arenado .177 wOBA in 1st 2 wks; .453, 5 HR since – 5:47
• Byron Buxton .244; .431, 11 HR/2 SB – 12:02
• Michael Harris II .282, .430, 5 HR – 22:11
• Kazuma Okamoto .281, .415, 8 HR – 27:02

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

• Lugo bounced back from his 7 ER nightmare v. LAA. Duds are just part of his game. He had 5 in his big 2024 season and his 14 since 2024 are tied for 4th-most.
• I’m not sitting King or anything, but I want to point out that STL has been sneaky strong. They’re sitting 9th vR on the season and up at 3rd in the last 2 weeks. It gives me pause on someone like Walker Buehler over the weekend and could slow me down some Griffin Canning, though I’ve always had a soft spot for him.
• I think Painter’s better than his .370 BABIP, especially with a flyball lean; ATH is tough enough to still play it safe in the shallowest formats, but he’s viable across the board.
• Where are the Kellerheads from the chat? Your boy better not let me down here! After inconsistent control in his first four starts (0, 4, 1, 4 BB), he has dialed in with just 3 in his last three starts combined (19 IP). Often a Keller skeptic, I’m down to run the hot hand here as his 2.84 ERA/0.84 WHIP over the L3 comes with a 19% K-BB and 114 LOC+. He wins with command and control which does lead to more volatility with the ball in play more often and ARI is up to 12th vR over the last 2 weeks, though Skenes and Co. shut them out tonight (I’m typing this with just 1 out in the 9th… will I jinx the Pirates?).
• Griffin Jax is opening and he’s still unlikely to deliver a fantasy-relevant inning total, but they are stretching him out with a season-high 45 pitches last time out. I don’t know if this caps around 3+ innings, but if they can get him consistently in the 3-5 range, maybe he can move into the follower role. Scholtens, meanwhile, isn’t a bad Win chase, having won 3 of his last 4. All of the wins were follows, though he did go 5.7 IP in the start so it wasn’t volume that kept him from winning that one.
• Some of the 1-x’s have fringe 12-start viability but I’m not eager to use them there.
• Whenever we start trusting Irvin, he drops 4 BB on our heads… but that’s why he’s a #4. That’s just a trait of #4s and why they live in the streaming world. MIN is 7th in K% vR so maybe we spike one of his biggies (games of 7 and 9 Ks this yr).
• I’m keeping tabs on Scott, but let’s be careful about running him in Coors. COL has found their groove at home, though perhaps the snowyyy weather this week will slow them down.
• Povich and Liberatore are fringe streamers for sure. Povich gets a sputtering MIA offense in their HR-suppressing park (88 HR factor is 6th lowest) while Liberatore gets a slightly better offense in a park that suppresses everything but homers (97 overall factor is 25th, but 108 HR is 9th highest).
• Even with as bad as PHI has been, Ginn is scary to stream here. Is the upside even worth the severe downside? PHI might not get all the way back into a Top 10 offseason this year but Ginn has a career 349-pt. platoon split and their 3 above avg. hitters are all lefties (Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh).
• Just not enough swing and miss in Lowder’s game to have any real confidence with him, particularly if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.
• Gallen has very similar metrics to Lowder with just a 7% K-BB and 8% SwStr. If not for a 5% HR/FB, he’d likely be toting an ERA north of 5.00 right now.
• Cecconi has always been a HR machine but it’s even worse this year at 2.0 (career 1.7) and at that rate, there’s nothing he can do to make himself a worthy stream.

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Thanks for coming out!!

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