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About Last Night: a few notes about some Monday SPs

• What the hell was that, Kyle Harrison?! Yeah, CHC is #1 in wOBA vL so there were no guarantees, but I didn’t think he’s hit a full meltdown like that.
• George Kirby is a home-0nly starter the rest of the way… if that, tbh. We can’t keep banging our heads against the wall with him.
• A couple of HRs, including a 3-run shot, tanked Jackson Jobe’s outing and now through 5 starts, the 2 Duds have easily outweighed the two good ones and one decent one. This is a perfect microcosm for why I’m so cautious with TJ returners. See another JJ – Jared Jones – for a larger sample of TJ returner inconsistency. I still had Jobe as a 3-x, so I’m not pounding my chest here, more excoriating myself for not following my normal skepticism of this player class.
• deGrom maintained his 1 up, 1 down pattern, dominating ATH… can he break the streak and hold up v. TBR this weekend?

Tuesday’s Starters

• Luzardo had 4 Duds through his first 8 starts but allowed 4 ER in the other 4 starts combined so while frustrating, the poor starts weren’t really actionable and those who just kept him locked in the rotation have been rewarded handsomely: 2.12 ERA/1.02 WHIP/23% K-BB in 119.3 (19 starts) since the last of those Duds.
• I still think Melton has the stuff to be a legitimate ace as he develops but the Ks were back down again in August after a surge in July, giving him more of a Sandy Alcantara feel right now which is still great but short of a true fantasy ace.
• Remember when I floated the idea of Gav Williams dropping a 20-K game at LAA last week? That was cute… instead, he had his worst start of the year as he failed to finish 2 innings. (1.3 IP/5 ER)
• I really thought we’d see the other shoe drop with E-Rod as he had a 2.29 ERA/4.77 SIERA split in the first half as it seemed like the 88% LOB and .247 BABIP were ripe for regression. The regression has in fact come, with a 73% and .306 in the 2H, respectively, but his 0.95 HR9 is all the way down to 0.38 (6th best in 2H) and has masked a lot of the impact of that regression.
• PIT has slammed righties on the year (2nd in wOBA), but they’re just 28th in the 2H so I’m no longer running from them as much with non-ace righties. That doesn’t matter as much today as we’d be starting Webb even if they were still a top 5 offense against ’em, but just wanted to note that as we move through the final month. That would include guys like Landen Roupp, Blake Tidwell, and Walbert Ureña who draw PIT this week.
• I won’t blame anyone for skipping Bradish in Coors especially on the heels on a pair of rough outings (at STL, v. NYY). I don’t want to be overly influenced by Monday’s 2-1 game, either. A low scoring game one night doesn’t mean it can’t be 10-9 in the 4th inning the next in that park!
• I’m nervous to jump in on GrayRod, but he’s been pretty good lately with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L6 (32.7 IP). He has a couple meh 4 IP starts in the mix, but the other 4 starts have been really good, including a pair of 7 IP gems. NYY’s modest offense helps, too. Walby cooked ’em on Monday night!
• It might be too hard to get away from Woo in 15s, but as I mentioned with Kirby, he probably needs to be a home-only starter at this juncture: 2.63 ERA/0.79 WHIP at home | 5.96 ERA/1.38 WHIP on the road.
• Learned my lesson from Harrison, let’s avoid these Cubs right now.

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• Tolle has allowed more than 3 ER just once over his L9 outings, posting a beautiful 2.65 ERA/1.04 WHIP/28% K-BB in 51 IP. Today, he gets the 30th ranked offense versus lefties.
• Any concerns for Harrison after the shellacking at SDP have been tamped down by 2 strong starts since, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP with 13 Ks. CHC is scary, especially with how dialed in PCA is right now, but Harrison doesn’t leave the rotation for me.
• A gem last time out from Kirby (7.7 IP/1 ER/9 Ks) inspires some confidence, but man oh man it’s been a grind this year. I mentioned ahead of his last start that SEA’s defense is a big reason behind his struggles and obviously one good start doesn’t fix that. I can’t see benching him despite the bumpy year, though.
• deGrom’s been on a 1 up/1 down pattern over his last 8 starts but it’s so hard to take those sort of runs seriously. If anything, it just underscores a pitcher’s start-to-start inconsistency and there are no guarantees the pattern will continue meaning we can’t expect a good outing just because the last one was bad. And yet, I still have him at 3-x as he’s facing the battered A’s lineup at home. I might have more caution if it was in Sacramento, but this is the right setup for him to continue to this weird pattern.
• A 9 ER Dud v. LAA two starts ago has saddled Lambert with a 6.12 ERA over the month but that’s literally his only bad start during the run. In fact, it’s the only start where he’s allowed more than 2 ER in his L10 and he did rebound from the LAA outing with a solid 5.7 IP/2 ER/5 Ks at NYY.
• I’ve got some nerves about this Nola rebirth as the 2.63 ERA comes with a 1.26 WHIP over his L6 starts but the run also comes with a 29% K rate and of course his residence on a strong PHI team gives him a decent W probability (though he is just 2-2 during this run).
• COL is just 11th in wOBA at home since the break giving me more confidence to run Bradish in Coors today. I’ll never give managers a hard time for skipping Coors with non-aces especially if you’re protecting ratios against the meltdown start (which Bradish had last time out with 7 ER at STL).
• Ureña, not Mitch Farris, going for LAA. While NYY got Belly back and Luis Garcia Jr. has been excellent with them, they remain a pretty non-threatening offense without Judge. Ureña’s ERA is due for some regression given how many base runners he allows but even if he’s more high 3.00s than high-2.00s, I’m still comfortable using him v. NYY today. 

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Pardon me for no Thursday board. I was light on sleep Wednesday night and then crashed after my morning stream. I will have some comments in the morning on Friday’s star-studded board.

• Any Tigers fan who boos Skubal tonight is a stone cold loser. He was traded and it’s not like he demanded to be moved. Anything but overwhelming love for him would be really out of pocket to me.
• McClanahan catches a hot hitting SDP team (9th wOBA vL in L30) but after 5 scoreless on 74 pitches last time out – his 2nd start off the IL – I’m confident installing back into every lineup.
• The erosion of the Nationals offense has been a tough watch. Trades of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia were one thing, but then James Wood’s injury and the absolute worst month of the year for CJ Abrams has them sitting just 26th in wOBA versus over the last month and down to 14th on the season. The 4th for the year going into August! I say all that and Eury was just fine against them last time out (5 IP/1 ER/3 BB/4 Ks) but there’s a chance for a big outing for sure.
• Classic TJ returner season for Jones. RIGHT when you get comfortable with them as a must start, they hit the rug pull! After a nasty July, Jones has made it 5 IP just once in 4 August tries, was pasted for 8 ER v. NYM, and was lucky to survive LAD with 4 IP/2 ER given his 5 BB. Predictably, it’s been spotty command and control behind his struggles with a 14% BB rate and 2.3 HR9 over his L4. Like I said, classic TJ returner! All that said, though, and he’s still catching a relatively high slot in the 3-x tier as a trip to STL provides a good chance to get right. Another major struggle here would make him a tough start anywhere next week, though. (Note: he was moved down from 8th to 12th after the original post).
• I remain terrified of anyone pitching in Sacramento but Lopez has simply been far too good over his L7 to sit anywhere: 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP/22% K-BB in 39 IP, including 4 home starts.
• 2 great, 2 awful starts for Mize with SDP so far, including an early departure after slipping down the stairs between innings and rolling his ankle in his last one. He’s said to be recovered from that and ready to go today, but with a tough matchup on tap, I can see some skips… especially if you’re protecting ratios and a Dud would really hurt you.
• Brown certainly hasn’t been the frontliner we expected for a while now, toting a 4.41 ERA/1.41 WHIP combo over his L9 with a paltry 7% K-BB. He’s allowed multiple BB and 1 HR in each of his L5, too, thus taking him out of any must-start status. I still have a hard time getting away from him in deeper formats, but 10-team managers shouldn’t feel obligated to run him.
• It’s only 1 spot, but Painter should be ahead of Bradford on matchup alone, especially as Bradford has been “meh” lately while Painter is surging: 3.62 ERA/1.06 WHIP/14% K-BB. He did suffer a Dud at MIN thanks to a 4-run first inning but he stabilized and dropped four strong IP after that and then bounced back in the next start (his most recent) for his best start of the year: 7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/8 Ks.
• Sandoval rebounded from his Dud at PIT with 5.7 IP/2 ER/2 BB/6 Ks v. SFG, but it was his 6th straight game with at least 2 BB. This ostensibly should be a good matchup for him despite heading to NYY. Their lefty-laden lineup should play into Sandy’s strengths, despite what a disgusting .586 BABIP vL has done to his numbers this year. That’s clearly small sample flukiness to me so I’m willing to run him in some spots tonight.
• I would still be pretty nervous to run Anderson or Sugano, but they are catching their otherwise tough opponents at the right moment with LAD 25th and ATL 29th in wOBA vR over the L30 days.

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Thanks for coming out!!

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• SFG switched from Roupp to Webb, nothing changes on our end. In fact, I’m more confident in Webb than Roupp.

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• C’mon baseball, let something play out exactly like it should. Let us see Williams strike out 20 Angels on Tuesday! He’s running a 40% K rate in the L30 days and 32% for the year while LAA’s 25% team K rate is tied for the highest in the league.
• King is getting PIT at a perfect time with their normally righty-mashing offense in a lull, sitting just 21st in wOBA over the L30 days. King has run an essentially neutral split this year (.004 pts of OPS difference favoring his vR work) so the lefty-heavy Pirates lineup doesn’t threaten him like it does so many other righties this year.
• I still can’t envision myself benching Skenes for fear of missing of a gem. By the same token, I can’t keep banging my head against the wall and leaving him top 3 in the face of a 6.59 ERA/1.68 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L5 starts. The funny thing is that 17% K-BB is still pretty good and a level many pitchers would strive for during their hot streaks. And yet, when the bar is set at a career 24% level, it is still disappointing to see even an above average mark like 17% (league avg. for SPs is 14%). Reminder that he won three straight with a 2.45 ERA/1.22 WHIP/21% K-BB right before this streak. Yes, the 1.22 WHIP was indicative that he wasn’t back back but his good starts are still useful for anyone rostering him.
• I’ve grown so comfortable with Thornton so quickly that I might be overrating him a touch. I’m still good running him anywhere even in a tough MIL start, but he should probably be a bit lower in the 3-x ranks thanks to relatively modest K% and K-BB% rates.
• Jobe has already shown the volatility of returning from TJ – elite in the first start, a disaster inning unraveled the second start, and then a solid rebound in the third start, though still 3 BB showing the spotty command and control which is a TJ Returner hallmark. The upside keeps him a 3-x reco, but any given start can be a crashout for him which is just part of the deal with TJRs.
• You don’t have to be deep into the second- and third-level stats to realize Ureña is running hot with his 2.80 ERA. The 1.24 WHIP and 12% BB (which are, of course, related) make it tough to maintain such a low mark, but he is helping himself survive the control with exceptional hit and HR suppression (.197 AVG, 0.56 HR9). The cold water there is that sustaining Top 10 BABIP and HR/FB rates isn’t easy, especially with an average 23% K%. Add it all up and he’s walking a bit of tightrope as the 4.42 SIERA preaches some caution, but I don’t think the concerns rise to level of benching him. I’m sure some 10-team rotations are deep enough to not need him, but getting him out of a 12- or 15-team rotation seems remarkably difficult barring some unexpected depth.
• I did struggle keeping Kirby at 3-x given his season. I’m a longtime fan and want to believe this is a blip year, but last year was supposed to be the blip year. In fact, his ERA is actually a click better this year, down from 4.21 to 4.18 but the WHIP has surged from 1.19 to an ugly 1.36. A career-high .336 BABIP is likely not entirely his fault when we see how poorly SEA ranks defensively this year: dead-last in Fielding Run Value at -42. So sure, some of these struggles probably don’t lay at Kirby’s feet directly, but he still has this same defense behind him and we might just have to downgrade him for at least the remainder of 2026. Hell, maybe just I do as I’m sure many already have. As such, he was dropped to 2-x after this post went up. Consider his ranking swapped with Bradley.
• Speaking of Bradley, I don’t love throwing anyone at ATH but they are SO beaten up with injuries that I’m making an exception. We just saw Zebby dominate (7 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 Ks) and while that doesn’t guarantee Bradley will do the same, he’s far more trustworthy than Matthews.

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• Messick’s first full season has been fantastic and getting better as it goes on. After a bit of a June Swoon (“swoon” relative to his elite level as 2 gems couldn’t completely counterbalance 3 meh outings, saddling him with a 4.26 ERA), he’s 1 of 5 arms with a sub-2.00 ERA since July 4th, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 48 IP. He has a chance for a massive week with a home date against KCR lined up for the weekend.
• Cavalli was a chic breakout pick for some this year as he was finally healthy and ready to show off his prospect pedigree off at the big league level after an interesting 10-start run down the stretch in 2025. It was a wobbly start as a meager 1.77 WHIP and 6% K-BB suggested his 4.22 ERA should be even worse after his first five starts. He then closed the month with back-to-back 10-K games which has spurred a fantastic 22-start run during which he’s posted a 3.07 ERA/1.14 WHIP/23% K-BB, only once allowing more than 3 ER (4 ER at ARI on Jun. 7). The run is currently bookended by two double-digit K outings as he’s racked up 10 and 11 Ks during 14 scoreless innings to go with initial pair that launched him in late-April. Add it all up and he’s SP28 on the year now.
• Ashcraft, Alcantara, and Gilbert have deceptively tougher matchups as SDP (3rd), BOS (1st), and PHI (6th) are all well ahead of their season ranks in wOBA over the L30 days. It doesn’t rise to the level of sitting them in any leagues but could impact your interest in them for daily fantasy games.
• After an excellent debut with CHC, Gausman hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of last two starts but this feels like a get-right spot at ARI as they are generally much better vL, though they have been rising vR of late sitting 14th over the last month.
• Klassen sputtered through two outings back in April with 5 BB in both (31% BB) and while the walks haven’t gone away in 3 August starts since returning (12%), the surface results have been incredible in spite of the wobbly control with a 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. It’s still just a 10% K-BB, too, as we haven’t seen the Ks really dial up so just know this is still a scary start anywhere. This isn’t a fence-sit or anything, I’m fully on board running him, but we’re going in eyes wide open that if the BBs are up, he can get smoked.
• Longtime readers will remember my yearly Urquidy interest for a good bit there. He was someone Eno put on my radar and I became an instant fan of, enjoying plenty of his 2021-22 seasons while then hoping to recapture the magic around a myriad of injuries since 2023. He’s back on the radar after a brilliant start for the White Sox in Wrigley with 6 scoreless IP and 8 Ks against 0 BB. It’s one start, so let’s keep it in perspective, but it’s a 2-step v. TEX and at MIN on a team where he can earn some Ws with non-elite outings so he was a chase guy in 15s and he’s on the radar for 12s.

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8/21/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

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• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK20 (July 31st)

• AUTO-START: Zack Wheeler, Chase Burns, Braxton Ashcraft, Parker Messick, Kevin Gausman, Ranger Suarez, Cade Cavalli, Robbie Ray
• Zac Thornton NYM – vs MIL (20), vs HOU (22) 8:10
• Walbert Ureña LAA – vs CLE (27), vs PHI (18) 10:26
• Keider Montero DET – vs TB (3), vs LAD (2) 14:45
• Seth Lugo KC – @ TOR (23), @ CLE (27) 20:35
• Max Scherzer TOR – vs KC (22), vs SEA (21) 24:15
• Andrew Alvarez WSH – vs COL (21), vs MIA (16) 27:27
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI – vs CHC (7), @ SF (15) 30:00
• Jeffrey Springs ATH – vs MIN (15), vs BAL (12) 31:50
• Tyler Phillips MIA – vs BOS (17), @ WSH (6) 32:08
• THE REST – 34:00
• Adrian Houser SF – vs CIN (30), vs ARI (28) – the one we like of the group
• Matthew Liberatore STL – vs BAL (12), vs PIT (24)
• Kyle Freeland COL – @ WSH (2), @ ATL (14)
• Ryan Feltner COL – @ WSH (6), @ ATL (12)
• Chris Bassitt BAL – @ STL (24), @ ATH (14)
• Jose Urquidy CWS – vs TEX (25), @ MIN (9)
• Ethan Pecko HOU – @ NYY (20), @ NYM (26)

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Approximately 47 minutes of joyous analysis.

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8/20/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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2027 DRAFT REVIEW

• 1st round
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong 1
  • Yordan Alvarez 9 returns
  • Jordan Walker 10, Jacob Misiorowski 12, CJ Abrams 13 join

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