This is using 5-game eligibility to cast a very wide net, but we will sometimes skip guys who short-qual (meaning under 20 gms which is the industry standard) at one position to focus on them at their primary.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions.
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Paul Sporer: Helloooooo everyone!! Thanks for coming out, hopefully you’re warming up wherever you are. The ice & snow is melting rapidly here in Austin, TX as we push into the 50s
1:02
Domingo: Regarding today’s article on Soderstrom: why aren’t projection systems buying in?
1:06
Paul Sporer: I think they kind of are, coalescing around a 25/80-type projection after 25/93 last yr. They bring the AVG down to the .250s instead of last year’s .276, but that’s just smart after a .327 BABIP. Plan for the .250s and take any extra as a bonus. I’m willing to pay the Top 100 pick for Soderstrom!
1:07
Chas: On Jose Ramirez, and I mean this question literally: How does he do it?
He sports poor barrel rates, poor exit velocities, poor hard-hit rates. Yet the outcomes are always outstanding. What gives? Is it his ability to square up the ball and launch? And if so, will that skill set age poorly compared to sluggers who simply hit the ball hard?
1:21
Paul Sporer: I will say off rip I don’t really know. But you’re definitely keyed in on one of his key attributes: the ability to square it up. He rates highly since that’s been being tracked. He pulls the ball in the air and lives in his sweet spot so while he doesn’t high rate of premium barrels, he has enough bc he also doesn’t strike out so he has enough volume to be super dangerous.
His 37% Hard Hit rate is 4 pts below league average and ranks 117th among qualified hitters but his 194 hard hits are 45th. It all still starts w/the basics – Ks and BBs. He doesn’t K (8th in MLB) and gets enough BBs (46th in MLB). Since he’s putting the ball in play so much, he doesn’t have to maintain insane Barrel & HH rates to be successful and these plate skills should age well so if he can continue to be a pulled-flyball stud, his HRs shouldn’t crater as he ages.
(Took a while on this one bc I had to look up a buncha stuff!)
1:21
James: About equal cheapish cost in a 14 team. Who is my last keeper? Jackson Merrill, o Neil Cruz, or Zach Neto? I’m torn.
1/6/2026 – Huge update; expanded the rankings by 10, adjusted tiers, and added a ton of new profiles.
1/21/2026 – Smaller update today with ADP & $ values getting a refresh along with these player updates: Ryan Weathers trade update, Ranger Suárez signing, profiles added for: Ryan Pepiot, Nick Lodolo, Sandy Alcantara, Michael King — planning for another update this weekend as long as we don’t lose power during the impending ice storm 🥶
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Here is the opening look at the top 150 pitchers for the 2026 season. I’ll have plenty of updates including some tier updates/changes as I dive deeper on players and figure out better fits for them. I will eventually expand the list, too. I cut it at 150 for now just to have an endpoint, but I have something like 264 ranked. Drop a comment if you have questions on anyone, even if I haven’t written them up yet, but check back regularly for more profile additions.
Jan. 6th: First big update brings an expansion, lots of ranking changes, and tons of new profiles. Starting from this update forward, I will track the guys who change but there were just so many with this update that I didn’t end up keeping track of everything.
Jan. 21st: Smaller update here refreshes the ADP & dollar values along with some of the recent moves plus a handful of new profiles. I’ll have another update later this week or early next. We’re supposed to get a bad ice storm here in Austin this weekend and anyyyy measure of inclement weather can eat up our garbage electrical grid so I’m reluctant to guarantee a weekend update because of that.
Paul Sporer: As much as I love Hunter Brown, I’ve gotta take the 2 shots w/Webb & Trey
1:05
Greg: Who are some guys you would bump up your rankings in a points league that heavily weighs IP, K and W?
1:08
Paul Sporer: The guys with better volume track records. I still know it’s not guaranteed as any arm can get hurt, but the guys with several 30+ start seasons under their belt are gonna get the tiebreaker v. those per-inning monsters in a points format. I won’t completely shy away from a Glasnow/Snell type as I can still supplement their missed innings off the wire, but I’m not going to load my rotation up w/those types and have to spend most of my season replacing 2-3 arms via the wire. That’s already a risk any year bc pitchers break, but inviting it w/several guys who’ve max at 120 IP should only be done if you like playing waivers for arms and are in a league with a rich enough pool to make it worthwhile
Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Sorry I’m late, I have to add my chat back to my Reminders app. I was just going through the day as if it were Tuesday
1:25
clydethedog: NL only 4 x 4 (no runs, no k’s) Keeper League
I have Emilio Pagan and Bryce Eldridge at incredibly cheap, would you try to package them together for another cheap keeper like James Wood or Jackson Chourio?
1:26
Paul Sporer: If you can do that, absolutely. I benefitted from Pagan’s huge year but I’m cashing the hell out. No chance I’m running it back. If he beats the HRs again (1.3 in ’25), I’ll tip my cap and eat the L
1:26
Deep in Draft Prep: Who is the one player (can be any position) you’re planting your flag on who is currently being drafted outside of the top 150 who will finish the season in the the top 75?
1:30
Paul Sporer: Addison Barger (190 ADP) is someone I really like. A bit raw, but smacks the absolute piss outta the ball. I don’t think he’d need to make a huge leap to go .260/30 – think Brandon Lowe from last year.
1:30
Davio: Sox get Ranger. Who do you prefer over Tolle or Early? I’d bet on of them goes in a deal.
As many of you know, the fantasy baseball season never stops for a dedicated contingent that not only plays through the fall and winter but sometimes even does their first draft for the following season during the current one! But I don’t need to explain the concept of “diehards” to y’all, you’re already here. Over at the NFBC there have been 70 Draft Champions drafts completed (15-team, 50-round Draft & Hold leagues), but I’m going to focus on a tighter recent sample of 11 drafts since Christmas since it will give us more recent player movement better accounted for in the data. You can find the ADP data here and use the calendar feature to chop it up as you see fit.
I wanted to get a better feel for the ebbs of flows of where starters are going so this will be a tour through the SP market in the top 300. I’m not explicitly outlining the biggest risers and fallers in this piece. You can track the movement in the SP market (and all positions) in Justin’s reports. I’m going to look at some overall volume counts and then look at them through the prism of some category thresholds.
