Dodgers star catcher Will Smith hit the IL this week with neck inflammation that could keep him out past the minimum 10 days as Dave Roberts also suggested he’d need a ramp up period upon returning, though it wasn’t clear if that meant a full-on rehab stint. The 31-year-old backstop has disappointed this year, sitting 16th among catchers on the Player Rater. He’s hitting .249/.338/.382 with 6 HR, 23 RBI, and 23 R in 201 PA.
I was really excited about him this year, seeing him as an undervalued C1 in 2-catcher setups and a cheaper way to get a good piece of the coveted Dodgers lineup. While I never thought his .296 AVG was coming again this year, I didn’t expect a fallback all the way to 2024’s level (.248), either, but maybe I should have upon further investigation. Obviously the .345 BABIP that drove his AVG last year wasn’t going to sustain but he was a firm .270s BABIP guy for four years before that, posting a .257 AVG in the process. He’s at a .272 BABIP and .249 AVG this year so that likely should’ve been my expectation.
At C16 on the Player Rater, he was underwhelming-but-fine in 2-catcher leagues and certainly not killing anyone in 1-catcher setups. Let’s take a look at a few guys who could be worth picking up to replace him and possibly even keeping around when he returns.
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They’re working on a transformer here so the power is going out intermittently this morning.
I didn’t realize ATH was in Vegas all week, so that Jump reco was misguided at best. Easy no-go there.
Ben Brown has been pushed back to tomorrow.
I’m never particularly excited to start Baz, but it’s hard to envision a better matchup
Leiter/Imai are matchup recos, though they’ve been passable of late (mid-4.00s ERA in L30 for both) but Imai’s 1.17 WHIP is a good bit better than Leiter’s 1.27 in that same span.
I know Sandy had an amazing 2-step last week, but this is a very difficult matchup so I don’t think he’s a must in 10s. His platoon split plays right into their strong lefty lineup, too. Not even sure you have to run this in 12s. I got burned for being proactive with him last week and actually skipped the 2-step. Of course, I put him back in this week to eat what will surely be a flameout. 🤣
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Justin Wrobleski is still running a tightrope with that 11% K-BB rate, but the ratios remain excellent and of course, being a Dodger puts him in line for a Win every time out as he’s racked up seven so far. Pittsburgh is much worse versus lefties with a 27% K rate that sits 2nd to only Colorado, but can Wrobo take advantage? He has just a 16% K rate, the 4th-lowest mark among qualified starters. He is spamming four-seamers this year with a 51% usage rate, 6th-highest in the game, and it’s down 2 mph to 93.9 mph. Last year he threw even more fastballs, but they were split among four-seamers (29%), sinkers (21%), and cutters (14%). The curve and changeup were show-me pitches last year and remain so this year.
You don’t get a 2.62 ERA with these skills without some “run-hot”. He’s 10th in BABIP (.243) and 1st in HR/FB (4%). Now just because someone is running well in those categories doesn’t mean it’s always pure dumb luck happening to them but there are certain thresholds where the combo of stats just can’t hold without something giving. In this case, I do think Wrobo’s ERA will be headed upward, I’m just not sure it starts tomorrow given Pittsburgh’s struggles with southpaws. I have him as a Team Streamer with only scary matchup in the near future. From here, he’s lined up for v. TBR, at MIN, and at ATH. The first two are bottom half wOBAs v. lefties but ATH is 5th overall and 1st at home. I’d strongly consider skipping that one.
I’m still not totally sold on Zebby with his 1.5 HR9 but he has 4 QS in 5 starts. The fifth was a 7 ER Dud, though, and that’s my concern with him. It’s a wide range of outcomes, but enough good to start earning a little more trust.
I had some interest in Dobbins at times last year with Boston and I’m happy to see him back starting after some strong extended RP outings.
Feltner and Cabrera are going to burn me for even looking for upside in Coors. Maybe I’m overreacting to Wednesday’s 3-2 game. By the way, COL is going for the sweep! Feltner has been outright awesome of late with a pair of 6 IP gems since returning while Cabrera had a brutal return off the IL with 8 ER
Montero could be making his last start for a bit with Skubal, Mize, and Verlander on the verge of returning.
Pérez has bee a revelation for the Braves (3.02 ERA/1.06 WHIP) but this is a risky matchup with the sweet swinging White Sox on tap.
Kelly’s full season stats stinks but his 4.18 ERA/1.14 WHIP over the L30 days are more indicative of who we can expect him to be going forward now that he appears fully healthy.
Phillips is a pure matchup play if you want to take advantage of ARI. Don’t get enamored with the 2.08 ERA, the 1.36 WHIP will ensure that heads upward.
Hazmat: Any thoughts on Cole Carrigg? He isn’t get much of a mention in today’s write up but had a good debut. Do you see him sticking around even with their group of injured outfielders?
1:02
Paul Sporer: Anyone with a chance to consistent PT in Coors has some appeal. He’s a blazer with 30 SBs at AAA and a huge BABIP. Feels like he could be a really good fit in that park!
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bkgeneral: 16 Team points league. Is Keaschall ever going to get going?
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Paul Sporer: Perhaps, but he’s not that far off where expectations should’ve been. He’s got 10 SBs. AVG is light but not so far off expectations (.247 actual v. .260s projections). He’s not quite striking the ball hard enough to think he’ll definitely improve his .289 BABIP, but the plate skills are in order so he could have a run. I know in points, his SBs don’t matter as much so for your purposes, he really does need to get that AVG going. The thing is, I’m not sure there’s a ton better on a 16-team wire so I might try to hold a bit longer but if someone pops up, you can cut
1:07
Matt: You pulling either McClanahan (@LAD) or Messick (@MIL) in favor of Warren (CIN)?
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I know there’s been some consternation with Skenes as he’s been less godlike than normal lately but I kept him at #1 in my recent rankings update as I didn’t find the 4-start blip to be actionable. I wouldn’t quibble with someone slotting in a new #1, but for me he holds for now. He’ll calm any and all fears with a gem here and I’m eager to see how he handles one of the best offenses going.
Burns draws today’s top spot and ascended to Ace status in my latest update as the #7 overall arm. He is truly a 2.0 version of Hunter Greene, improving both the HR and BB rates that plagued Greene early on in his career. Burns is up at 1.2 HR9 this year (after a 1.0 flat in last year’s debut), but Greene sat at 1.6 in his first two years before improving. It took Greene three seasons to post a BB rate under 9% while Burns is toting an 8% mark right now (not a huge difference there, admittedly). Imagine if Cincy can get these two clicking together.
Cease is returning from a hamstring injury that cost him a couple weeks but he did make a rehab start and I’m willing to get him right back in. As I always mention with these, every fantasy manager has their own way of handling first starts off the IL, so do what works best for you. I do consider the injury type in my start/sit with arm-related injuries being more worrisome. That isn’t to say a hammy can’t hamper you, just that I’m more inclined to get back in right away on non-arm related issues.
I believe Melton is quite a bit better than his 4% K-BB and having watched all three of his starts this year, I can confirm he has pitched like someone with 4-5x that mark, including back-to-back long outings of 7 and 8 IP where he allowed just 3 ER on 10 H and 3 BB but with just 6 Ks. The dam will break if he doesn’t improve, though, as a .175 BABIP will only hold for so long, particularly when you’re allowing that much contact. The Tigers are on the verge of potentially a trio of arms returning (Skubal-Mize-JV), including their ace, but I really hope Melton’s job isn’t threatened. With Jack Flaherty pitching better of late (26% K-BB in L3) and his lofty contract – which does matter whether we like it or not – he’s unlikely to be unseated, either. I wonder if they consider a 6-man to ease Skubal and Verlander back, shifting Montero to the pen and going Skubal-Framber-Mize-Flaherty-JV-Melton.
I wasn’t sold on May during his April rebound as he worked off the ugly 13 ER from his first two starts with a 1.95 ERA in his final four starts of the month as they came with a modest 12% K-BB. But his last 30 IP have drawn my interest as his 3.90 ERA is powered by a 1.00 WHIP and 20% K-BB, including at least 7 Ks in each of his last 3 (and 4 of 5). He has nearly doubled his swinging strike rate, going from 7% to 13%, and done so by dialing up his cutter usage 10 pts to 29%. A great matchup here gives him a chance to stay hot and then folds into a potential 2-step next week v. SDP and at KCR.
I couldn’t see myself sitting Kyle Harrison in any format yesterday, even knowing the dangers of Vegas. But after seeing this game… and still seeing it in fact, as I’m watching the 12th inning while writing this… you will not see a single “x” for the rest of that series. Ginn, Perkins for ATH and Gasser, Sproat for MIL will be nowhere near any lineups. Meanwhile, daily players are left with an interesting choice between stacking Vegas or Coors.
Holmes is predominantly a Win chase. The White Sox are no joke as a lineup so they could clip him as their strength is homers and he has a 1.7 HR9, but he has managed to avoid letting the longball sink of late w/a 2.91 ERA in his L4 despite five bombs. This is probably more a 1.5-x (maybe even 1) reco as I look deeper into it. If you’re OK chasing Wins at the potential expense of ratios, feel free to run him.
I’ve been tracking Alvarez the last few weeks as he’s been stretched out into a starter. He got his first traditional start last time out and fell just an out shy of a strong 5 IP (4.7 IP/1 ER/5 base runners/5 Ks) while reaching a season-high 82 pitches. He also lines up for a 2-step next week v. KCR and at TBR, so don’t be afraid to stash him for that even if you skip this one.
I miiiight have still given Cecconi 1-x if Judge was in the lineup as he’s put up a decent 3.09 ERA/1.28 WHIP/14% K-BB in his L6 including a gem against the Yanks last time out (though they were already Judge-free at that point).
If you have questions on anyone else, drop a comment!
