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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 25th, 2026

by
August 25, 2026
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

  • C’mon baseball, let something play out exactly like it should. Let us see Williams strike out 20 Angels on Tuesday! He’s running a 40% K rate in the L30 days and 32% for the year while LAA’s 25% team K rate is tied for the highest in the league.
  • King is getting PIT at a perfect time with their normally righty-mashing offense in a lull, sitting just 21st in wOBA over the L30 days. King has run an essentially neutral split this year (.004 pts of OPS difference favoring his vR work) so the lefty-heavy Pirates lineup doesn’t threaten him like it does so many other righties this year.
  • I still can’t envision myself benching Skenes for fear of missing of a gem. By the same token, I can’t keep banging my head against the wall and leaving him top 3 in the face of a 6.59 ERA/1.68 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L5 starts. The funny thing is that 17% K-BB is still pretty good and a level many pitchers would strive for during their hot streaks. And yet, when the bar is set at a career 24% level, it is still disappointing to see even an above average mark like 17% (league avg. for SPs is 14%). Reminder that he won three straight with a 2.45 ERA/1.22 WHIP/21% K-BB right before this streak. Yes, the 1.22 WHIP was indicative that he wasn’t back back but his good starts are still useful for anyone rostering him.
  • I’ve grown so comfortable with Thornton so quickly that I might be overrating him a touch. I’m still good running him anywhere even in a tough MIL start, but he should probably be a bit lower in the 3-x ranks thanks to relatively modest K% and K-BB% rates.
  • Jobe has already shown the volatility of returning from TJ – elite in the first start, a disaster inning unraveled the second start, and then a solid rebound in the third start, though still 3 BB showing the spotty command and control which is a TJ Returner hallmark. The upside keeps him a 3-x reco, but any given start can be a crashout for him which is just part of the deal with TJRs.
  • You don’t have to be deep into the second- and third-level stats to realize Ureña is running hot with his 2.80 ERA. The 1.24 WHIP and 12% BB (which are, of course, related) make it tough to maintain such a low mark, but he is helping himself survive the control with exceptional hit and HR suppression (.197 AVG, 0.56 HR9). The cold water there is that sustaining Top 10 BABIP and HR/FB rates isn’t easy, especially with an average 23% K%. Add it all up and he’s walking a bit of tightrope as the 4.42 SIERA preaches some caution, but I don’t think the concerns rise to level of benching him. I’m sure some 10-team rotations are deep enough to not need him, but getting him out of a 12- or 15-team rotation seems remarkably difficult barring some unexpected depth.
  • I did struggle keeping Kirby at 3-x given his season. I’m a longtime fan and want to believe this is a blip year, but last year was supposed to be the blip year. In fact, his ERA is actually a click better this year, down from 4.21 to 4.18 but the WHIP has surged from 1.19 to an ugly 1.36. A career-high .336 BABIP is likely not entirely his fault when we see how poorly SEA ranks defensively this year: dead-last in Fielding Run Value at -42. So sure, some of these struggles probably don’t lay at Kirby’s feet directly, but he still has this same defense behind him and we might just have to downgrade him for at least the remainder of 2026. Hell, maybe just I do as I’m sure many already have. As such, he was dropped to 2-x after this post went up. Consider his ranking swapped with Bradley.
  • Speaking of Bradley, I don’t love throwing anyone at ATH but they are SO beaten up with injuries that I’m making an exception. We just saw Zebby dominate (7 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 Ks) and while that doesn’t guarantee Bradley will do the same, he’s far more trustworthy than Matthews.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 24th, 2026

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August 24, 2026
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

  • Messick’s first full season has been fantastic and getting better as it goes on. After a bit of a June Swoon (“swoon” relative to his elite level as 2 gems couldn’t completely counterbalance 3 meh outings, saddling him with a 4.26 ERA), he’s 1 of 5 arms with a sub-2.00 ERA since July 4th, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 48 IP. He has a chance for a massive week with a home date against KCR lined up for the weekend.
  • Cavalli was a chic breakout pick for some this year as he was finally healthy and ready to show off his prospect pedigree off at the big league level after an interesting 10-start run down the stretch in 2025. It was a wobbly start as a meager 1.77 WHIP and 6% K-BB suggested his 4.22 ERA should be even worse after his first five starts. He then closed the month with back-to-back 10-K games which has spurred a fantastic 22-start run during which he’s posted a 3.07 ERA/1.14 WHIP/23% K-BB, only once allowing more than 3 ER (4 ER at ARI on Jun. 7). The run is currently bookended by two double-digit K outings as he’s racked up 10 and 11 Ks during 14 scoreless innings to go with initial pair that launched him in late-April. Add it all up and he’s SP28 on the year now.
  • Ashcraft, Alcantara, and Gilbert have deceptively tougher matchups as SDP (3rd), BOS (1st), and PHI (6th) are all well ahead of their season ranks in wOBA over the L30 days. It doesn’t rise to the level of sitting them in any leagues but could impact your interest in them for daily fantasy games.
  • After an excellent debut with CHC, Gausman hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of last two starts but this feels like a get-right spot at ARI as they are generally much better vL, though they have been rising vR of late sitting 14th over the last month.
  • Klassen sputtered through two outings back in April with 5 BB in both (31% BB) and while the walks haven’t gone away in 3 August starts since returning (12%), the surface results have been incredible in spite of the wobbly control with a 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. It’s still just a 10% K-BB, too, as we haven’t seen the Ks really dial up so just know this is still a scary start anywhere. This isn’t a fence-sit or anything, I’m fully on board running him, but we’re going in eyes wide open that if the BBs are up, he can get smoked.
  • Longtime readers will remember my yearly Urquidy interest for a good bit there. He was someone Eno put on my radar and I became an instant fan of, enjoying plenty of his 2021-22 seasons while then hoping to recapture the magic around a myriad of injuries since 2023. He’s back on the radar after a brilliant start for the White Sox in Wrigley with 6 scoreless IP and 8 Ks against 0 BB. It’s one start, so let’s keep it in perspective, but it’s a 2-step v. TEX and at MIN on a team where he can earn some Ws with non-elite outings so he was a chase guy in 15s and he’s on the radar for 12s.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1533 – 2-Start Pitchers for Week 23

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August 22, 2026

8/21/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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YOUTUBE

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK20 (July 31st)

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Approximately 47 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 21st, 2026

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August 21, 2026
Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1532 – 2027 Meatball Draft Review Pt. 1

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August 20, 2026

8/20/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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YOUTUBE

2027 DRAFT REVIEW

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 20th, 2026

by
August 20, 2026
Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I wonder how many teams that drafted Ian Seymour are still benefitting from the fruits of his summer labor. A popular late round breakout pick after 57 solid innings to close out last year, Seymour didn’t make the rotation out of camp and promptly allowed 5 ER without getting an out in his season debut. If that didn’t lead to a rash of cuts, his residence in the bullpen for the first 2+ months almost certainly did in most leagues. In mid-June they started mixing him in for starts and extended follows (4, 5 IP in 2 starts; 3.3, 6.7 IP in 2 follows) and since July, he’s had a traditional starter’s workload with 7 starts and 2 long follows. In that stretch, he’s put up a 3.59 ERA/1.03 WHIP/25% K-BB, leading to 6 Ws in 13 appearances.

While I thought he had the workload established to avoid needing the ramp up management (143 in 2025; 145 in 2024), I did still think that Tampa Bay would take that approach. From my March SP rankings:

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but one as a pro and that one sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

Seymour’s excellent changeup helps him profile as the rare lefty who decimates righties (204-point reverse platoon OPS split: .622 vR, .826 vL) and the opposition almost protects him from his weakness, too, by stacking righties against him in hopes of getting a platoon edge that never seems to come their way. The lefty struggles are heavily tied to his 8 HRs allowed in 145 PA, compared to 7 vR in 254 PA. I still see a 25% K-BB (42 Ks, 6 BB) against lefties as a major reason to believe he will get better against them even if he regresses some against righties (a still-healthy 19% K-BB, but a .252 BABIP that won’t necessarily hold firm). If he continues to excel down the stretch, his draft price will skyrocket and he should be positioned to be a full-time starter out of camp for Tampa Bay in 2027. Does the original Seymour drafter still have him in your league?

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 19th, 2026

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August 19, 2026

Thanks for coming out!!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!! We’ve got some day baseball and a Tigers lead!
1:05

duckboathopeful: Hi Paul, thanks for doing these! I’m in a redraft points league; going forward, do you have more faith in Perdomo or Muncy? No posititional concerns as I have McGonigle.
1:07

Paul Sporer: Muncy lean for sure!
1:07

dirtypuer: Hi Paul! I’m in a H2H Cat league with OBP and SLG. I’ve held out hope for Cal the entire year, but I’m wondering if you’d jump ship for Alvarez/Stephenson/Ruiz
1:10

Paul Sporer: I’d move off Cal at this point. You gave it long enough and I can’t see any reason to believe a good streak is in the offing. I’d prioritize Stephenson among that group.
1:10

Woody1937: Love me some daysball

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 19th, 2026

by
August 19, 2026
Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I haven’t fallen asleep before posting in a while, but I crashed after the Tigers game. I’m adding comments right now (as this goes up at 8 AM CT), but wanted to get the base post up right away since I’m late.

Pfaadt has returned to the majors with a vengeance and some of the best success of his career. A rough start in the rotation led to a role change but the bullpen didn’t go any better and eventually saw him demoted to a Triple-A in early-June. After three “opens” (they were starts, but all under 4 IP), he returned with 5.3 strong IP v. SFG, netting his first W of the year followed by an even sharper 5 IP outing at SDP that included 6 Ks/0 BB. Given the offenses in question, I remained skeptical. A solid start at LAD (5.3 IP/2 ER, but just 2 Ks) resulted in a 3rd straight W and he’d eventually run the streak up to 5 straight Ws. I still wasn’t sold that it was a transformation, citing his 200-pt. platoon split in the August 3rd SP Chart.

Now nine starts into his return, Pfaadt has certainly shown it’s more than a hot run. He’s even made it into the 7th inning in each of his last four, completing it three times, running his record up to 7-0 in the process. There’s at least a souvenir cup-sized of cold water to throw on this with a meager 14% K rate that gives him an out of place 11% K-BB to go with the incredible 1.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP. Premium control (3% BB), a .237 BABIP, and just 1 HR allowed (0.2 HR9) have overrun the need for strikeouts, at least for now. Let’s be honest, only the walk rate is truly skill-based, meaning the other two are ripe for regression. More 4-seamers (+10 pts to 30% usage compared to pre-demotion) are leading his 3-headed fastball approach (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) along with a huge surge in changeup usage (+13 pts to 22%) making him formidable against lefties for the first time… ever? Southpaws have just a .218 wOBA against Pfaadt since returning, down from .405, while he’s also gotten better versus righties, dropping from .284 to .227 wOBA.

Pitchers can succeed for long periods without a ton of strikeouts. It’s not the best day to cite him after a 6 ER Dud last night, but Nick Martinez has a 3.05 ERA/1.14 WHIP this year despite just an 11% K-BB in 142 IP. He’s one of nine guys with a sub-3.50 ERA and K-BB no higher than 12% in at least 100 IP. Only three of them have a 20% or better K rate, none eclipsing the 22% league average (Walbert Ureña 22%, Michael King 21%, and Robbie Ray 20%). They all have a SIERA in the mid-4.00s, ranging from 4.33 to 4.90 and it’s hard not to think there are some Duds in the offing for Pfaadt if the skills remain down here. He’s doing positive things that are driving enough bankable success to get him into rotations in any league size, but he still isn’t close to a set it and forget it type and won’t be able to achieve that level without cultivating a swing-and-miss pitch he can believe in start-to-start.

  • Cavalli hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts, netting a 2.82 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a sharp 22% K-BB, fueled by a pair of double-digit strikeout games and four more with at least 7 Ks. He was lifted before a total implosion in the worst two of these 12 starts with early walks (5 BB in the 5 IP of these two outings) perhaps being a key indicator that it’s not his day. Unsurprisingly, he has 3+ BB in 5 of his 8 worst starts by Game Score (far from a perfect measure of a game, but a useful starting point in bucketing good/bat outings) this year. TEX is bottom 10 in BB% vR on the year and 27th in the L30 days (7%) along with the 3rd highest K% (26%) in that same time.
  • Offff course May has two gems since joining MIL! He closed his STL tenure with a pair as well, so it’s been four straight good ones since his last Dud, posting a 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP/15% K-BB in 24 IP. I was definitely carrying some residual sourness from buying in after his 17 scoreless IP in mid-June only to see him allow 11 ER in 2.7 IP over his next two starts at KCR and at ATL. He’s earned enough trust that his next Dud won’t instantly have me running for the hills.
  • Holmes was sharp in his 2nd start off the IL with 6.7 IP of 1-hit shutout ball. Only 3 Ks, but that’s never been the focus of his game with an elite groundball rate that should play very nicely with this defense behind him. Now they did lose Dansby Swanson which moves Nico Hoerner over to SS and Pedro Ramírez into the everyday 2B role which no doubt weakens the overall unit, but not enough to become a liability for Holmes.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 18th, 2026

by
August 18, 2026
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

  • Harrison got trounced at SDP, including a Luis Rengifo grand slam, but just 3 of the 8 runs were earned. Unfortunately, there were no “unearned baserunners” so the 10 H and 3 BB resulted in a disgusting 2.77 WHIP. The fastball velo was down to 93.2, compared to a season mark of 94.9 and 94.6 in his first start off the IL which does give some pause that this is more than just regular ol’ bad start (hat tip to trashpanda in the comments for posting the velo info right as I was about to go search it up and saved me the trouble!), but I’m still riding with him today and this will be a pivotal start in determining there’s more to worry about. If it was a really tough matchup, I might suggest more caution in shallower leagues, but catching the lowly M’s gives him a great chance to get right and shake this one. Regardless of the results, keep an eye on the velo. Sub-94 mph again and we start to get some real concerns.
  • Ray has 8 BB in 2 starts w/SDP after just 5 in his final 3 w/SFG which is just the standard inconsistency that comes with his game. NYM is surging of late vL (8th in L30 days) but it’s not enough to take me off this start. Ray is someone you generally just set and forget outside of injury. When he’s on, no one can touch him.
  • Maybe Martinez should be above the trio of lefties with how electric his season has been for Tampa Bay. His already modest K% is even lower this year at just 14% and yet he’s got some of the best ratios going at 2.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP. MLB-bests of 4% BB and 85% LOB are working in concert to keep his WHIP tiny and make sure that his 1.0 HR9 stings a lot less than normal. There’s still some real “run-hot” to the season, but dammit, the Rays did it again!!
  • Y’all already know I’m terrified about Baz being this high, but he’s earned it and of course, NYY is ripe for the picking right now (here comes 6 ER now that I said that, of course). Even with a Dud last time out, Baz has a solid 3.39 ERA/1.33 WHIP/15% K-BB in his L8. There’s still plenty of risk here even with the hapless Yankees.
  • SDP’s offensive surge has come more vR than vL, but they are up to 11th in wOBA over the last month against southpaws so don’t take that 26th season rank totally to heart. I mentioned this briefly yesterday that we’ll need to be careful starting any ol’ pitcher against SDP as we were throughout most of the summer, but Thornton still clears the bar to get a full reco from me. He is susceptible here if the Ks remain light, though. He has just 7 total in his L3 starts for a mere 10% K%.
  • Ashcraft battled through a brutal July, posting a 7.78 ERA in four starts, but he’s hit the road in August to get right. In three straight roadies, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 19 IP (2.37 ERA) and had his best start of the year last time out, allowing just a solo shot in a complete game at MIA with 10 Ks.
  • Well, we mega-whiffed on Mahle! Justin, Jason and I thought his move from SFG to ATL would be a total bust given how much of a stark home/road split he had with the Giants. Instead, he’s had two of his best starts of the year, one at NYY and the other hosting NYM. Sure, neither of those offenses are anywhere close to scary, but I was concerned that Mahle would actively hurt fantasy teams regardless of who he was facing. This is a nice challenge for Mahle as MIN can hit it outta the park and they’ve been 11th in runs against righties.
  • After an unstoppable 7-start run to open the year, Soriano labored through May and June, posting a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, boosting his ERA from 0.84 to 3.42 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts since then, but it’s worth noting that the 2.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo since then comes with just an 8% K-BB (he was at 20% during his opening 7-start surge). With that in mind, he’s not a must-start in the shallowest of formats, especially against a tough TBR team.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 17th, 2026

by
August 17, 2026
David Reginek-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

  • This doesn’t really apply to McLean today as he’s an auto start everywhere, but it’s worth noting that SDP is on fire of late, sitting 1st in wOBA vR over the L30 days. They’re also up to 10th vL after spending the vast majority of the year in the bottom 5 both ways. This will definitely be a bigger deal for their MIN series later in the week and might cost Zac Thornton an “x” for Tuesday’s board.
  • Wacha gets a remarkably hobbled ATH team with Tyler Soderstrom joining the rest of their best players on the IL. They’re on the road all week so it’s easy to play against them in that situation even without all the injuries, but now we might start considering more arms against them at home next week and beyond.
  • I really don’t mind running Snell in any format, even in Coors. I gave him the extra “x” this morning after just 2-x on the initial board. Yes, Coors can clip anyone at any time, but we’re talking probabilities and it’s hard for me to drum up any major concern about the Rockies, even at home. The strength of their lineup comes from the left side, too, which obviously plays into Snell even more.
  • McClanahan comes off the IL for a bizarre 2-step where he’s facing BAL both times thanks to a wraparound series that has him finishing the weekend set today and then getting ’em again this weekend at BAL.
  • Board might feel a bit thin when Perez, Pallante, and Bello (who isn’t even traditionally starting) hit the Top 10, but they’re all deserving. Perez has been flat out amazing all year with a 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 106.3 IP and is currently in the midst of an 18-IP scoreless streak. Even with a pair of Duds (5+ ER outing) mixed in, Pallante has a sparkling 2.88 ERA over his L12 starts, totaling 72 IP. He’s still skills-light with just a 9% K-BB but a groundball stud with a great defense behind him can outrun modest strikeout numbers more easily. There’s still high risk with any given start, but hard to get him outta the rotation these days. And Bello has been dialed in since going to an extended RP role, posting an 0.81 ERA and WHIP across 6 appearances (22.7 IP) with a 20% K-BB. He hasn’t been a traditional Follower in each, notching a 3-IP SV in one of them, but he is lined up to follow today.
  • Castillo is coming off a beautiful outing v. CIN last time out (7 IP of 1-hit ball w/10 Ks), but let’s keep things in perspective and not immediately throw him back into every lineup. The two starts before this were both Duds and the recently outing only just got him back below 5.00 ERA for the year (4.96).
  • I took Mlodzinski’s “x” from the initial post upon further review. He has a pair of bad 3 IP outings since returning to the rotation and it’s not like the DET offense is a rollover. I’d probably start Bratt over him (not that I’m interested in either).

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