7/3/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK15 (July 6th)

• AUTO-START: Jacob Misiorowski, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sánchez, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Shane McClanahan, Payton Tolle, Max Meyer
• Will Warren NYY – @ TB (9 wOBA rank), @ WSH (13) – 5:19
• José Soriano LAA – @ TEX (20), @ MIN (19) – 7:00
• Landen Roupp SF – vs TOR (18), vs COL (8) – 10:03
• Freddy Peralta NYM – @ ATL (5), vs BOS (27) – 12:25
• Taj Bradley MIN – vs CLE (25), vs LAA (22) – 17:30
• Dustin May STL – vs MIL (3), vs ATL (5) – 19:40
• Trevor McDonald SF – vs TOR (18), vs COL (8) – 22:40

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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Griffin catches the good side of facing PIT as they’re a top offense vR but middling or worse vL. He’s coming off a brilliant June, too: 1.16 ERA/.80 WHIP/24% K-BB in 31.3 IP.
• Detmers and Webb both draw Top 10 offense – and Webb is headed to Coors – but I still got them in the Top 5 because of their strong seasons and especially strong recent work. Last 30 Days – RD: 2.27 ERA/.82 WHIP/18% K-BB | LW: .71 ERA/.61 WHIP/19% K-BB
• After going 6+ IP in eight straight coming into June, Gav Williams didn’t reach 6 IP in any of his five June starts against a tough slate of teams (NYY 2x, MIL, CHW, and SEA). He did finish the month w/back-to-back 5 IP/2 ER outings, including one against the same CHW team he faces today so despite the June Swoon, I can’t see benching him anywhere.
• Harrison draws the tough side of ARI but it only moves him down a couple spots as he’s obviously been way too good to skip any starts.
• Castillo rebounded from a tough Follow appearance (4 IP/4 ER) with a gem against the hobbled Guardians: 6 scoreless with 4 Ks, 1 BB. After a rough start that included a pair of 7 ER Duds in April, Castillo has been a solid mid-rotation arm since even with the uncertain role: 4.12 ERA/1.14 WHIP/16% K-BB in 48.3 IP and has just a 3.38 ERA in the L30 days.
• We saw 12.7 scoreless IP out of Cole to start his season, but then just a 6.12 ERA/1.48 WHIP combo in June with 7 HRs allowed and less than a strikeout-per-inning (22 in 25 IP) holding him back. MIN’s offense is sneaky great vR, sitting 6th on the year in wOBA and 1st over the L30 days. I don’t think he’s a must-start and I wouldn’t be targeting him in any sort of DFS game.
• I slept on Bennett a bit but now 6 starts in, he’s looking quite good, especially of late. He only had 4 Ks in his first two starts (10.3 IP), but he’s up to 21 in his last 22.7 IP that included 6 shutout innings and 9 Ks in Coors!
• Arrighetti had a devastating June (9.00 ERA in 25 IP), getting cooked in 4 of 5 starts despite reaching 6 IP in three of ’em and still netting 32 Ks. Guys like this can be so frustrating because the second you move off them, they drop 7 scoreless with 10 Ks.

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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• I really hope we get the gem we deserve from Miz v. Burns.
• Miller has been absolutely electric, allowing so few base runners that the 1.4 HR9 isn’t hurting. It reminds me a bit of peak Robbie Ray’s approach – just hammer the zone and let your stuff do the work, homers be damned. Obviously a 99% LOB rate won’t hold, nor will the .216 BABIP, and probably not even his 30% K-BB, but he doesn’t need to stay this hot to be an all-formats must-start pitcher.
• Roki opened last month with a gem (7 scoreless, 10 Ks) before a June Swoon in his other three (14 IP, 13 ER, 12 Ks, 9 BB), but I can’t see skipping this one v. SDP. They were hitting a bit a week or so ago but now have 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their L5.
• Not only did Ureña have a shutout going into the 5th inning of his last start, but also a no-hitter before allowing 7 R on 6 H and 2 BB
• May got an extended layoff for back tightness after his Dud at KCR so I can see skipping this if you’re nervous. He is catching ATL at a great time, though, as they sit dead last vR in the L30 days.
• Cecconi hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since May 2nd and went at least 5 IP in all five June starts. Just a 10% K-BB in that time keeps expectations in check which is why it’s still only a 2-x recommendation. He’s startable in 10s if you’re vibing with him but this CHW offense makes me nervous.
• Waldrep was up to 71 pitches in his last MiLB start on June 21st so I don’t think this necessarily has to be a short start if he’s doing well.

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Thanks for coming out!!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings. (Yellow added after original post)

• Skubal at 4 might be lowest he lands on a board all year. These are razor-thin margins between the Top 4 and while he hasn’t been his untouchable self since returning from surgery, his 31% K and 28% K-BB are both better than his pre-injury marks. 6 HRs have been the problem in his 3 starts back. He gets the worst matchup of the 4 from a season standpoint, but Judge-less NYY is down to 17th vL over the L14 days.
• Miller is listed as Opener (and his stats are shown in the chart) but they don’t do traditional Openers and he should get a regular start’s worth of innings if he’s doing well. Castillo could get whatever’s left and if he doesn’t falter like last time, he could be in line for a Win or even a 3-inning Save (though Muñoz has had 3 days off now so they’ll likely go to him if it’s close), so there’s some merit to starting him, too.  It’s Woo. Chart had Miller/Castillo but it’s been updated to show Miller on Thursday and Castillo on Friday. SEA-LAA has a weird Wednesday off tomorrow for the World Cup so they’ll finish the series Thursday before TOR comes to visit. Woo is obviously a 3-x start. I’m on a meeting right now so I didn’t update his stats, I’ll try to get back to it today, but it’s not like y’all need his season stats to know to start him.
• Even after coming unglued late last time out v. CHC (6 ER), McLean still has a 3.21 ERA/1.18 WHIP in the last month of work. He’s grinding through his rookie year a bit, but there’s been way more good than bad.
• The slightly arbitrary 30-day cutoff giveth and taketh… it perfectly sliced off a May 25th Dud for McLean, but just missed 7 scoreless IP for Early that would bring his recent ERA down from 5.06 to 4.01! I don’t even need that start included to still fee strongly about sticking w/Early, though. He still has a 26% K and 17% K-BB despite the 5.06 ERA/1.46 WHIP. The Nats are great vL, but I just can’t see sitting him.
• The Pirates clipped Wrobleski in Pittsburgh but he immediately bounced back with 2 gems (TBR, at MIN) despite continuing his meager K-BB (12% in those 2 gms; 10% on the yr). Will he struggle in Sacramento? Maybe, but the reason I remain undaunted in starting him in the Win upside even if he’s not at his best. Although I say that and all 9 of his Ws have come in great outings and he didn’t come close to winning any of his 3 bad starts. Ah well, we’re running him in Sactown!
• Roupp spent the whole trying to work off the 8 ER he opened the month with and back-to-back 6 IP/2 ER outings certainly helped with that. Another brilliant matchup affords him a great chance to stay hot.
• Boyd had a decent outing fresh off the IL, keeping the Mets scoreless for 4.7 IP, but he was a bit lucky, too, with 4 BB and 4 H. He catches a surging SDP team, too, sitting 8th the L14 days vL.
• Probably should’ve been a bit more cautious with Alcantara heading into Coors, so I won’t double down on that misstep with a blind Eury reco. He’s the more dominant pitcher which gives him a better shot to survive Coors, but the Rockies have found their home groove. In fact, they’re #1 overall vR in the last month so it’s not just Coors (worth noting they did get a series in Vegas, but still, they’re clearly doing more than just taking advantage of nice parks).
• Cameron/Sproat are classic matchup streams, both catching bottom-7 teams v. their respective handedness. Cameron started the month strong before hitting some bumps recently, including v. the same Rays he’ll face today but I’ll take the shot at home. Sproat is coming off his best start of the season: 6 scoreless w/10 Ks against the same Reds he’ll face today. The only time he had two solid starts in a row he was likely on everyone’s bench as they came at COL and at ATH! I guess his TOR (6.7 IP/1 ER)/at DET (5.3 IP/3 ER) combo in mid-April was fine but with a 5.43 ERA, the good starts are scant in total volume, let alone pairing them up.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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6/26/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

YOUTUBE

• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show and more!
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK14 (June 29th)

• AUTO-START: Jacob deGrom TEX, Parker Messick CLE, Braxton Ashcraft PIT, Nolan McLean NYM, Ryan Weathers NYY
• Trey Yesavage TOR – vs NYM (29 wOBA rank), @ SEA (4) – 3:00
• Shota Imanaga CHC – vs SD (29), vs STL (14) -5:55
• Ranger Suarez BOS – vs WSH (1), @ LAA (11) – 10:31
• Eury Perez MIA – @ COL (8), @ ATH (12) – 11:05
• Sandy Alcantara MIA – @ COL (8), @ ATH (12) – 20:48
• Shane Drohan MIL – vs CIN (8), @ ARI (5) – 25:27
• Nick Lodolo CIN – @ MIL (21), vs BAL (26) – 30:37
• Sean Burke CWS – @ BAL (7), @ CLE (25) – 33:29

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In its base form, Wins are part of our game even as their frequency drops and annoyance with them continues to surge. I don’t mind them despite their variant nature. They do create a lot of outliers when judging fantasy value, though, and because they aren’t bankable as a skill, that can be misleading. This is why it can be dangerous to use Player Raters as value meters. Someone with a bucket of Wins can skyrocket up the Rater and look better than his actual skills. Conversely, a hard-luck loser with great skills gets overlooked if they have too few wins. Today we’re going to remove Wins from the equation and see if we can learn anything from who jumps into the Top 50.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings. (Yellow added after original post)

• It’s Miz, Skenes, and Wheeler day — Rejoice!! Unfortunately, they all have evening games so there will be some overlap, but the start times are a little staggered with Skenes first at 5:40pm CT, 6:10 for Wheels, and 6:45 for Miz so you get a clean half an hour with Skenes before Wheels even starts. If you trying to split your time and catch some of all three, you can watch Skenes’s first few IP before jumping over. Skenes used to take precedent over any non-Skubal start for me, but Miz has ascended into that spot so come 6:45, CHC-MIL gets the big screen, even over my Tigers. 🙈
• Ginn, Arrighetti, and Martinez are the interlopers of the 3-x world thanks to matchups, venues, and/or recent performance. Ginn has become a firm home/road sit/start guy for me: 4.29 ERA/1.62 WHIP at home | 1.99/.79 on the road. Arrighetti and Martinez are toting mid-5.00s ERAs over the L30 days but both have solid full season records and get to face sputtering offenses.
• From there, the board gets really sketchy. I don’t feel great about starting any of the 2-x’ers and below. I’m taking a shot on McDonald despite his recent struggles because he’s catching ATL at the best possible time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month as regression and injuries catch up to them. Pair that with SFG’s offense hitting a lot better of late and putting a potential W in play if McDonald can put up a solid 5.
• Ureña still has that sharp ERA/WHIP split (2.41/1.31) that suggests the former will be headed upward sooner than later, but we’ll take a shot against a road ATH team that is top 10 vR in the aggregate, but sits 18th against ’em on the road.
• Castillo blew Miller’s gem last time out when they were in the starter-follower setup but his four outings before that were solid: 1.79 ERA/1.00 WHIP/13% K-BB in 20.3 IP. I only say “solid” despite the beautiful ratios because the K-BB is still pretty modest, suggesting there’s some run-hot here. But even if you tack the 4 unearned runs back onto his ledger, it’s still a palatable 3.58 ERA in this span. The clincher is the matchup, though. Our start thresholds against the J-Ram-less Guardians are wiiide open!
• We’re at the point of the season where COL has built enough good numbers at home to push their full season rankings way up so don’t immediately get deterred by their 4th highest wOBA vR. They’re tied for 1st at home with TBR (that’s interesting!) with a .353 wOBA that drops to .313 (16th) on the road. That doesn’t mean Bradley and his 6.93 ERA/1.62 WHIP over the last month is an auto start, just that the matchup isn’t as scary as it seems on the surface. 
• My interest Cantillo is purely matchup related as SEA is dead last vL on the year and 25th over the L30 days.
• Abbott is another pure matchup play. PIT has a night-day vR/vL split, sitting 23rd in wOBA vL with a 27% K rate that is tied for highest with COL. Abbott also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since April 24th, posting a 2.41 ERA in his L10 starts. But the modest 1.23 WHIP and outright bad 8% K-BB don’t give the ERA a lot of credence, yet he keeps getting it done. I’d have no problem sitting in a tougher matchup even w/the hot ERA run, but PIT v. a southpaw is tough to pass.
• I originally gave Corbin 1-x, but took it off about 20 minutes after posting. TEX isn’t a scary matchup, but Corbin has completely pumpkin’d after a fast start (6.64 ERA/1.82 WHIP/5% K-BB in L30).  

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