• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• It’s always scary to take an SP in Sacramento, but Rasmussen is amazing plus the A’s have been melting as the season wears on with their three best players (Kurtz, Shea, and Rooker — if you want to say Soderstrom is over Rooker, sure, but it’s splitting hairs and there’s no disputing Kurtz/Shea as 1/2) on the IL and Gelof just returned two days ago. The result of these injuries has been a precipitous drop in home wOBA vR from 5th through July 25th – first game without Langeliers – to just 24th since then.
• This is why I stay living in the gamelogs: Framber’s L30 is a 4.58 ERA/1.63 WHIP but if you lop off the meltdown at CHC (6 ER, 7 baserunners in 2 outs of work), he’s at 1.89/1.32 including a great outing against the aforementioned hobbled A’s (7 IP/2 ER). And yeah, 1.32 WHIP is still bad but it’s a reminder how much a bad start can spoil a sample. Over these last 4, it’s 2 gems, a decent one (5 IP/2 ER), and the Cubs Dud. Plus, he gets a CLE team that has struggled with lefties all year.
• Miller doesn’t quite have the crazy home/road splits of teammate Bryan Woo, but it’s still nearly 2 runs of ERA (2.09 home/4.02 road) and nearly 40 pts of WHIP (.75/1.14). And yet, he’s a full reco for the same reason Woo was yesterday – the Yankees offense is rouuuugh right now. Only Miller’s own M’s are worse in wOBA than NYY since Judge’s departure on June 1st. They’re only marginally better when looking at their work vR at home in that timeframe (up to a whopping 27th!).
• C’mon, don’t burn me, Baz! If you read me consistently, y’all know I’ve been skeptical on him for a minute but he’s shaved his ERA down to 3.76 on the year so if you can afford some WHIP risk (1.32), I’m good running him anywhere today. He’s coming off his best start of the year (8 IP/2 ER/9 Ks at TEX) and has been dialed in over his L7 in all: 2.55 ERA/1.19 WHIP/16% K-BB. MIN can certainly pop off as evidenced by their 8th ranked offense vR for the year, but they are floundering down at 25th over the last month.
• Like I said, SEA’s offense is similarly awful lately, hence a full reco on Warren despite his inconsistency since June 1st (not related to Judge, just happens to be when he dropped off after a nice April-May: 3.23 ERA/1.20 WHIP/19% K-BB thru May | 5.49/1.61/12% since then.
• Once we get out of the 3-x realm, things gets dodgy immediately. Can Soriano keep BOS cold after their blazing hot run? They have just 10 R in their last 4 games combined after averaging 10 the 5 before that and of course the 15-game W streak not being that far in the rear view.
• Was the Mahle trade a sneaky gem for ATL? Not just saying that because he debuted with 6 scoreless and 9 Ks at the sputtering Yankees, but because he’d stabilized a bit in his last 7 starts with SFG (3.79 ERA/1.18 WHIP/12% K-BB). Even his Dud at SDP in his last start as a Giant still had 9 Ks! I only gave 2-x, but he could be started in a 10’er against NYM.
• I was too aggressive with Junk’s original rank so I dropped him to 1-x. I’ve been aggressively running away from PIT vR for most of the year and I am open to taking a shot on him at home with PIT sitting 18th in wOBA over the last month but only in 15s as more of a Hail Mary. He has such a stark righty-lefty split (.860 OPS vL, +256 pts his vR mark) that he might be the perfect Rx to get them out of their funk.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Comments in the AM… or early PM, but games don’t start until evening so we should be good!

• Skenes is now staring down the barrel of a 4.00+ ERA, but whattya gonna do, bench him? No. Never. Still has 162 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, and 9 Ws.
• How about my guy Sandoval?? I’ve been a longtime fan and longing for his departure from LAA to a more competent org and when he landed in BOS, I was super excited for him to get healthy (they took a shot on him during TJ). The bill will come due on that .386 BABIP if he doesn’t get it under control soon, but I wasn’t going to pass this juicy matchup.
• Pallante has had an impressive summer and really entire year when compared against expectations, but particularly nice of late. Even with a pair of Duds mixed in, he has a 3.14 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 66 IP since June 1st. Now, it comes with an 11% K-BB which does make him scary to trust in any given start as that .274 BABIP during this run & .278 on the season could regress at any moment (.287 league average). Though I say and it’s worth noting that Pallante has a strong 55% GB rate and quality defense behind him.
• Woo has a brutal home/road record, but I’m sticking with him due in large part to NYY second to only Woo’s very own Mariners in wOBA since Aaron Judge’s exit from the lineup on June 1st. He still has a 15% K-BB on the road which is still well below his 20% home mark, but above the 13% league average.
• I miiight be closer to 1.5-x for Young at MIN, but while they are a good offense in the aggregate, he is catching them at a good time given that they are just 22nd vR at home over the last month.
• Bradford’s only in his 2nd start off the IL (4.3 IP the first time) so he could still be on a tighter pitch count but I’ll take the shot at LAA.
• Snell/Lodolo both off the IL in case you want to see one before getting ’em back into the mix.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll take a closer look on some mid-tier guys in the morning, but a mostly straightforward shortened Monday board for us to attack.

3-x

• Scott, our posterboy today, has been great since returning: 3.25 ERA/1.17 WHIP/23% K-BB in 33.7 IP including a great outing and a meh outing against the same ATL team he faces today. (The great one is the more recent one).
• I’m not jumping off Mize just because of the brutal SDP debut. It happens, it was awful, and it still only moved his ERA to 3.04 on the year which underscores just how great he’d been prior to the meltdown.

2-x

• Wesneski maybe a bit shakier than I ranked here especially with SFG’s offense being mid-pack vR. I’m a big fan of Wes, but more for 27 when he’s further away from his surgery. I am starting the 2-step in weeklies with more confidence, though (v. SEA on the wknd).
• Cameron earned 2 for his recent performance (3.34/0.86/18% in last 35 IP) even with a trip to LAD today. They’re down to 12th vL in the L30 days which is still fine, but a good bit lower than their 6th season rank as they have been sputtering a bit of late as a team (2-8 in L10). LAD can always go off on someone so I get fading Cameron even with this encouraging outlook.
• Dobbins and Elder are pitching well on the season and of late, but still carry modest skills profiles (sub-15% K-BB for both) so they are susceptible to blowups, but I like both here. Philly, despite their record and presence of superstars, just never move up the wOBA board.
• Hughes might become my new Ryan Feltner – Rockies pitcher I desperately want out of COL to fully excel. I’d like to see more swing-and-miss in line with his MiLB figure this year (12% v. just 9% in MLB), but I don’t mind giving him a shot on the road.
• I might be overly cautious with Soroka off the IL getting Rockie Road (shoutout Nick Pollack!) so he’s more 1.5-x as I’m certainly open to running him in shallower formats if you’re comfortable w/guys immediately off the IL.

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8/7/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK21 (August 10th)

• AUTO-START: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Dylan Cease, Bryan Woo, Sonny Gray, Eury Pérez, Logan Henderson, Christian Scott, Ranger Suarez
• Sean Burke CWS – vs CIN (30), @ DET (6)
• Reid Detmers LAA – vs TEX (7), vs KC (18) 7:00
• Ryan Weathers NYY – vs SEA (29), @ TOR (30) 9:58
• MacKenzie Gore TEX – @ LAA (15), @ ATH (10) 15:20
• Casey Mize SDP – vs MIL (5), @ CLE (20) 17:00
• Trevor Rogers BAL – @ MIN (25), @ TB (24) 22:14
• Freddy Peralta TB – @ ATH (18), vs BAL (13) 26:16
• Tanner Bibee CLE – @ DET (6), vs SD (19) 29:29
• Dean Kremer MIN – vs BAL (13), vs PHI (25) 31:35
• Noah Cameron KC – @ LAD (6), @ LAA (15) 33:55
• Hunter Dobbins STL – vs PHI (25), @ CHC (9) 37:42
• Hayden Wesneski HOU – @ SF (12), vs SEA (11) 39:20
• Bryce Elder ATL – vs NYM (28), vs ARI (29) 41:55
• Andrew Painter PHI – @ STL (24), @ MIN (8) 44:31
• Nick Lodolo CIN – @ CWS (11), vs MIA (13) 48:09
• Cody Bradford TEX – @ LAA (15), @ ATH (10) 51:10
• THE REST – 52:27
• Drew Anderson 앤더슨 DET – vs CLE (20), vs CWS (15)
• Jacob Lopez ATH – vs TB (24), vs TEX (7)
• Jameson Taillon TOR – vs BOS (27), vs NYY (14)
• Gabriel Hughes COL – @ ARI (29), @ SF (12)
• Ryan Johnson LAA – vs TEX (16), vs KC (21)
• Jake Irvin WSH – vs CHC (9), @ NYM (28)
• Blade Tidwell SFG – vs HOU (4), vs COL (22)

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Approximately 56 minutes of joyous analysis.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Zebby in for Prielipp, dropped to a shaky 1-x reco. as MIL is much better vR.
• Drohan broke his 4 QS streak in a tough 5 ER start v. COL but then immediately started a new streak with 6 IP/2 ER at LAA in his most recent outing.
• Really eager to see if Gausman can shave that .318 with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him now.
• Roki’s on another heater (2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP/20% K-BB in 24 IP) and gets a great matchup to stay hot. Of course, his last bad outing was a 3 IP/6 ER Dud against SDP, one of the worst offenses in the league, so there are never any guarantees with him.
• Despite getting SDP today, I did drop Blanco down to 1-x just because we really haven’t seen a ton in his 3 starts off the IL.

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Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Weird as hell board. I’m not super confident in a #1, so I chose my guy Detmers: 21% K-BB for the year and 30% over the L30 days. Eury was close and actually had the #1 spot initially, but I balked with a trip to ATL. Woo’s excellent at home, but DET is raking right now so that’ll be a nice unstoppable force vs immovable object type of vibe.
• Maybe Scott should’ve been more of a contender for the #1 as he’s dominating lately (1.77 ERA/0.98 WHIP/25% K-BB in L30) and gets a good matchup with CLE. Hell, with that in mind, maybe Burke is underrated at 9. He’s been electric over the last month (1.05 ERA/0.66 WHIP/32% K-BB) but BOS has been sizzling so don’t let that 28 wOBA rank fool you, they’re 12th over the last month so I got cold feet pushing him too high. He’s still an easy must-start and would make a nice pivot in daily games if you want someone who won’t be highly rostered.
• Mize gets a strong landing spot with his new team, facing an ARI team that hasn’t done much vR. If he can stay healthy – a big IF with him – he could be a huge add for the Pads.
• Skenes he’s the lowest he’s been in… forever? Back-to-Back Duds (with 18 Ks in 9.3 IP, to be fair) and a 6.46 ERA/1.57 WHIP in his L7 (36.7 IP). I’ve been slow to this move as I didn’t even consider a tangible move down back in May and then held firm in June, feeling comforted by his 2.84 ERA/1.17 WHIP/27% K-BB run in the first four starts of the month. That last one of the month where he had the bad 2nd inning (4 ER) sink him v. CIN has started this tailspin. And we’re still talking “tailspin” relative to his obscene heights because even in the midst of this, he ran off three in a row with a 2.49 ERA/1.22 WHIP/22% K-BB against three playoff-positioned teams (ATL, MIL, at CLE). I grant that 22% K-BB is almost pedestrian for him, but let’s remember that’s a Top 10 mark on the year (11 guys hit the mark if you round Luzardo up — and of course, I do as a hater of decimals in fantasy baseball percentages).
• Harrison, you know my spiel on the IL returners – everyone has their personal way of handling guys off the IL so just follow that. Some are firm “never start” and I think that’s likely a winning proposition in the aggregate. It’s always been case-by-case for me and I nervously ran Harrison in the Main Event. I’d have been more scared with a righty against PIT in this scenario but they can clip lefties (up to 17th in L30), too. I’m just so in the bag for Harrison that I don’t want to miss a start of his so here we go!!
• Will likely add some more in the AM!

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