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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 18th, 2025

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning! (Yes, I’m going back to the well on Tong even after the nightmare v. TEX)

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 17th, 2025

Thanks for coming out!!

1:12

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

1:13

Dave: So… uhhhh… the Tigers are going to hang on, right?  Right….?  I was all the way back in for another Gritty Tigs run after the Carp homer last night and then, well… the top of the 10th happened.  And now I am anxious again.

1:13

Paul Sporer: I’m also anxious, but yes I think they hold on. The pitching is rickety outside of Skubal, though, just not enough bat-missing. I’m worried the playoffs could be a breezy 1-and-done

1:13

Sam: Hey Paul, appreciate all that you do!  Looking at a SS for the last week in a points league. Caballero, Meidroth or Colson Montgomery (been ice cold) or Ha-Seong Kim 김하성?

1:14

Paul Sporer: Matchups would play a role and I don’t have them off-hand, but absent a major edge one way or the other, Caballero & Meidroth are my faves there

1:14

lwomack58: Does Severino look like a good stream in h2h cat. league. Need QS and ratios protection.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 17th, 2025

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 16th, 2025

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I fell asleep before 10pm for maybe only the 2nd or 3rd time of the baseball season! Let’s take a look at Tuesday’s board:

  • There was a version of this board up for about 2 minutes that had Eury as 3-x. I’ve moved him down as I definitely don’t trust him in all formats going into Coors.
  • Abbott has been wobbly down the stretch (4.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP in L30) and I’ve had some skepticism about him all year so I’m not terribly surprised by the downturn, but he was brilliant last time out in SDP to hopefully assuage some concerns that were building.
  • Ohtani was right back down to 3.7 IP last time out and he’s just not a bankable 5 IP having done it exactly once this year and now gets a brutally difficult matchup so I’m not sure I’m looking to start him in many spots
  • Clay Holmes is starting, but Manaea is following and while he hasn’t been terribly good at all this year, following does put him in a better spot to steal a win even if it’s only 3-4 good innings so I don’t mind the risk in some spots.
  • Let’s be careful with Pepiot… seems to be wearing down in the stretch run here and gets a tough matchup so while I’m still a mega-fan of the talent, he’s not a must-start here.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 15th, 2025

James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

  • Rodón and Suárez are the only real studs today and Suárez gets stuck facing LAD… still running him everywhere, of course
  • Littell walks a tightrope with the excellent 4% BB% and putrid 1.8 HR9; his last 2 starts crystallize the range of outcomes w/this skillset — 4.3 IP/5 ER/4 HR v. TOR | 6 IP/2 ER/0 HR at SDP
  • Taillon was OK off the IL (4.3 IP/2 ER) and gets a trip back to his old stomping grounds where he should be able to put himself in line for a Win
  • Bradish has been fantastic in 3 starts since returning from injury with skills to back it up, though 2 of his L3 starts will be v. and at NYY
  • Gallen had been rolling with a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP in his L7 (6 QS) but suffered through a rough 1st inning at SFG (3 ER) to interrupt the run… allowed just 2 ER over his final 5.7 IP of that SFG start so I’m not letting the 5 ER outing deter and in fact, I’m adding a 10-team reco for him and probably prefer him to Strider in a 1 v. 1
  • Ashcraft and Sheehan are two rising young arms that I like a good bit, but these are some tough matchups to navigate so they aren’t must starts
  • Alexander is running a 2.20 ERA/0.98 WHIP so I might’ve undersold him a bit. I knew he was doing well, but didn’t know it was that well. I’ve added an “x” and I’d start him over Leiter. I still prefer the Ashcraft/Sheehan duo over him as I believe in their stuff more
  • Can’t wait to watch Yesavage’s debut tonight… and if Boyle’s on, it could be a great matchup!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1450 – 2-Start Pitchers for Week 26

9/12/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 26

Guys in BOLD are repeats from last week

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 12th-14th, 2025

Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know the Cubs game is going already today, but here’s the rest of the weekend!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 11th, 2025

Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Holy Toledo, what a rough board for the short slate Thursday! I keep a running loose ranking all throughout the year and only 2 guys in my Top 40 are going today. I’ll let you guess which 2 and neither is Schlittler or Seymour yet despite their impressive small samples. But that lack of experience also stands out when they rank 2nd and 4th on a board, respectively.

  • Luzardo draws the top spot, but the Mets are blazing hot vL lately sitting 1st in wOBA over the L30
  • I’m still starting Schlittler and Seymour in virtually all spots so that wasn’t a diss earlier, just underscoring how thin Thursday is. These two will be the subject of many offseason conversations and appear on a lot of breakout/sleeper lists as the next big thing. I need to do more research on Seymour to see where I land, but I can see myself contributing to the Schlittler hype for sure.
  • Gausman’s been undeniably good this year (SP23 on Player Rater) and yet I never feel that good starting him and I really can’t explain it. It’s also theoretical for me this year because I don’t have him so I should say “recommending him” more than “starting him’. It’s idle concern, though, because I can’t see benching him anywhere even in tougher matchups.
  • Love that my guy Gav Williams has his ERA down to a strong 3.17, but I haven’t been sprinting victory laps around everyone because I understand the 1.29 WHIP mitigates some of his impact… he’s SP40 which is 1 spot higher than my SP41 spring rank.
  • Peterson’s been all over the map lately: 26-79-55-6-41 Game Scores over his L5 so I really wouldn’t blame anyone for passing in Philly, but he’s at least worthy of consideration everywhere even if only in hopes of nabbing a W.
  • Smith’s had an excellent 2H rebound and honestly as I’m typing this I’m realizing I like him over Peterson but I’ve already remade the board like 6x writing these comments so pardon me for being a lazy bum and leaving it as-is and just telling y’all I prefer our boy Shane!
  • Weathers is coming off the IL so he’s a total wildcard but he reached 4.7 IP in 68 pitches during his last rehab so if they expand that to 75-80 pitches, 5 IP should be doable… I’d say pickup and stash but he’s headed to Coors next week and I’m doing my best to avoid ALL Coors starts down the stretch (studs still starting there, though).
  • Oviedo’s a hot hand play, but he’s legitimately hot and someone I really liked both coming up with St. Louis and during his platform 2023 season with Pittsburgh; more BB (13%) than we’d like in his 5 starts off the IL, but also a 29% K and very few hits fueling a sharp 1.10 WHIP. BAL can still clip a pitcher, but I don’t run from them.
  • Sori’s WHIP remains terrifying and despite the elite matchup, I’m not sure how good Kolek is so I don’t think he’s an overwhelming must start.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 10th, 2025

Transcript is now available, thanks for coming out!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 10th, 2025

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

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