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Pardon me for no Thursday board. I was light on sleep Wednesday night and then crashed after my morning stream. I will have some comments in the morning on Friday’s star-studded board.

• Any Tigers fan who boos Skubal tonight is a stone cold loser. He was traded and it’s not like he demanded to be moved. Anything but overwhelming love for him would be really out of pocket to me.
• McClanahan catches a hot hitting SDP team (9th wOBA vL in L30) but after 5 scoreless on 74 pitches last time out – his 2nd start off the IL – I’m confident installing back into every lineup.
• The erosion of the Nationals offense has been a tough watch. Trades of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia were one thing, but then James Wood’s injury and the absolute worst month of the year for CJ Abrams has them sitting just 26th in wOBA versus over the last month and down to 14th on the season. The 4th for the year going into August! I say all that and Eury was just fine against them last time out (5 IP/1 ER/3 BB/4 Ks) but there’s a chance for a big outing for sure.
• Classic TJ returner season for Jones. RIGHT when you get comfortable with them as a must start, they hit the rug pull! After a nasty July, Jones has made it 5 IP just once in 4 August tries, was pasted for 8 ER v. NYM, and was lucky to survive LAD with 4 IP/2 ER given his 5 BB. Predictably, it’s been spotty command and control behind his struggles with a 14% BB rate and 2.3 HR9 over his L4. Like I said, classic TJ returner! All that said, though, and he’s still catching a relatively high slot in the 3-x tier as a trip to STL provides a good chance to get right. Another major struggle here would make him a tough start anywhere next week, though. (Note: he was moved down from 8th to 12th after the original post).
• I remain terrified of anyone pitching in Sacramento but Lopez has simply been far too good over his L7 to sit anywhere: 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP/22% K-BB in 39 IP, including 4 home starts.
• 2 great, 2 awful starts for Mize with SDP so far, including an early departure after slipping down the stairs between innings and rolling his ankle in his last one. He’s said to be recovered from that and ready to go today, but with a tough matchup on tap, I can see some skips… especially if you’re protecting ratios and a Dud would really hurt you.
• Brown certainly hasn’t been the frontliner we expected for a while now, toting a 4.41 ERA/1.41 WHIP combo over his L9 with a paltry 7% K-BB. He’s allowed multiple BB and 1 HR in each of his L5, too, thus taking him out of any must-start status. I still have a hard time getting away from him in deeper formats, but 10-team managers shouldn’t feel obligated to run him.
• It’s only 1 spot, but Painter should be ahead of Bradford on matchup alone, especially as Bradford has been “meh” lately while Painter is surging: 3.62 ERA/1.06 WHIP/14% K-BB. He did suffer a Dud at MIN thanks to a 4-run first inning but he stabilized and dropped four strong IP after that and then bounced back in the next start (his most recent) for his best start of the year: 7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/8 Ks.
• Sandoval rebounded from his Dud at PIT with 5.7 IP/2 ER/2 BB/6 Ks v. SFG, but it was his 6th straight game with at least 2 BB. This ostensibly should be a good matchup for him despite heading to NYY. Their lefty-laden lineup should play into Sandy’s strengths, despite what a disgusting .586 BABIP vL has done to his numbers this year. That’s clearly small sample flukiness to me so I’m willing to run him in some spots tonight.
• I would still be pretty nervous to run Anderson or Sugano, but they are catching their otherwise tough opponents at the right moment with LAD 25th and ATL 29th in wOBA vR over the L30 days.

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• SFG switched from Roupp to Webb, nothing changes on our end. In fact, I’m more confident in Webb than Roupp.

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• C’mon baseball, let something play out exactly like it should. Let us see Williams strike out 20 Angels on Tuesday! He’s running a 40% K rate in the L30 days and 32% for the year while LAA’s 25% team K rate is tied for the highest in the league.
• King is getting PIT at a perfect time with their normally righty-mashing offense in a lull, sitting just 21st in wOBA over the L30 days. King has run an essentially neutral split this year (.004 pts of OPS difference favoring his vR work) so the lefty-heavy Pirates lineup doesn’t threaten him like it does so many other righties this year.
• I still can’t envision myself benching Skenes for fear of missing of a gem. By the same token, I can’t keep banging my head against the wall and leaving him top 3 in the face of a 6.59 ERA/1.68 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L5 starts. The funny thing is that 17% K-BB is still pretty good and a level many pitchers would strive for during their hot streaks. And yet, when the bar is set at a career 24% level, it is still disappointing to see even an above average mark like 17% (league avg. for SPs is 14%). Reminder that he won three straight with a 2.45 ERA/1.22 WHIP/21% K-BB right before this streak. Yes, the 1.22 WHIP was indicative that he wasn’t back back but his good starts are still useful for anyone rostering him.
• I’ve grown so comfortable with Thornton so quickly that I might be overrating him a touch. I’m still good running him anywhere even in a tough MIL start, but he should probably be a bit lower in the 3-x ranks thanks to relatively modest K% and K-BB% rates.
• Jobe has already shown the volatility of returning from TJ – elite in the first start, a disaster inning unraveled the second start, and then a solid rebound in the third start, though still 3 BB showing the spotty command and control which is a TJ Returner hallmark. The upside keeps him a 3-x reco, but any given start can be a crashout for him which is just part of the deal with TJRs.
• You don’t have to be deep into the second- and third-level stats to realize Ureña is running hot with his 2.80 ERA. The 1.24 WHIP and 12% BB (which are, of course, related) make it tough to maintain such a low mark, but he is helping himself survive the control with exceptional hit and HR suppression (.197 AVG, 0.56 HR9). The cold water there is that sustaining Top 10 BABIP and HR/FB rates isn’t easy, especially with an average 23% K%. Add it all up and he’s walking a bit of tightrope as the 4.42 SIERA preaches some caution, but I don’t think the concerns rise to level of benching him. I’m sure some 10-team rotations are deep enough to not need him, but getting him out of a 12- or 15-team rotation seems remarkably difficult barring some unexpected depth.
• I did struggle keeping Kirby at 3-x given his season. I’m a longtime fan and want to believe this is a blip year, but last year was supposed to be the blip year. In fact, his ERA is actually a click better this year, down from 4.21 to 4.18 but the WHIP has surged from 1.19 to an ugly 1.36. A career-high .336 BABIP is likely not entirely his fault when we see how poorly SEA ranks defensively this year: dead-last in Fielding Run Value at -42. So sure, some of these struggles probably don’t lay at Kirby’s feet directly, but he still has this same defense behind him and we might just have to downgrade him for at least the remainder of 2026. Hell, maybe just I do as I’m sure many already have. As such, he was dropped to 2-x after this post went up. Consider his ranking swapped with Bradley.
• Speaking of Bradley, I don’t love throwing anyone at ATH but they are SO beaten up with injuries that I’m making an exception. We just saw Zebby dominate (7 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 Ks) and while that doesn’t guarantee Bradley will do the same, he’s far more trustworthy than Matthews.

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• Messick’s first full season has been fantastic and getting better as it goes on. After a bit of a June Swoon (“swoon” relative to his elite level as 2 gems couldn’t completely counterbalance 3 meh outings, saddling him with a 4.26 ERA), he’s 1 of 5 arms with a sub-2.00 ERA since July 4th, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 48 IP. He has a chance for a massive week with a home date against KCR lined up for the weekend.
• Cavalli was a chic breakout pick for some this year as he was finally healthy and ready to show off his prospect pedigree off at the big league level after an interesting 10-start run down the stretch in 2025. It was a wobbly start as a meager 1.77 WHIP and 6% K-BB suggested his 4.22 ERA should be even worse after his first five starts. He then closed the month with back-to-back 10-K games which has spurred a fantastic 22-start run during which he’s posted a 3.07 ERA/1.14 WHIP/23% K-BB, only once allowing more than 3 ER (4 ER at ARI on Jun. 7). The run is currently bookended by two double-digit K outings as he’s racked up 10 and 11 Ks during 14 scoreless innings to go with initial pair that launched him in late-April. Add it all up and he’s SP28 on the year now.
• Ashcraft, Alcantara, and Gilbert have deceptively tougher matchups as SDP (3rd), BOS (1st), and PHI (6th) are all well ahead of their season ranks in wOBA over the L30 days. It doesn’t rise to the level of sitting them in any leagues but could impact your interest in them for daily fantasy games.
• After an excellent debut with CHC, Gausman hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of last two starts but this feels like a get-right spot at ARI as they are generally much better vL, though they have been rising vR of late sitting 14th over the last month.
• Klassen sputtered through two outings back in April with 5 BB in both (31% BB) and while the walks haven’t gone away in 3 August starts since returning (12%), the surface results have been incredible in spite of the wobbly control with a 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. It’s still just a 10% K-BB, too, as we haven’t seen the Ks really dial up so just know this is still a scary start anywhere. This isn’t a fence-sit or anything, I’m fully on board running him, but we’re going in eyes wide open that if the BBs are up, he can get smoked.
• Longtime readers will remember my yearly Urquidy interest for a good bit there. He was someone Eno put on my radar and I became an instant fan of, enjoying plenty of his 2021-22 seasons while then hoping to recapture the magic around a myriad of injuries since 2023. He’s back on the radar after a brilliant start for the White Sox in Wrigley with 6 scoreless IP and 8 Ks against 0 BB. It’s one start, so let’s keep it in perspective, but it’s a 2-step v. TEX and at MIN on a team where he can earn some Ws with non-elite outings so he was a chase guy in 15s and he’s on the radar for 12s.

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8/21/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

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• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK20 (July 31st)

• AUTO-START: Zack Wheeler, Chase Burns, Braxton Ashcraft, Parker Messick, Kevin Gausman, Ranger Suarez, Cade Cavalli, Robbie Ray
• Zac Thornton NYM – vs MIL (20), vs HOU (22) 8:10
• Walbert Ureña LAA – vs CLE (27), vs PHI (18) 10:26
• Keider Montero DET – vs TB (3), vs LAD (2) 14:45
• Seth Lugo KC – @ TOR (23), @ CLE (27) 20:35
• Max Scherzer TOR – vs KC (22), vs SEA (21) 24:15
• Andrew Alvarez WSH – vs COL (21), vs MIA (16) 27:27
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI – vs CHC (7), @ SF (15) 30:00
• Jeffrey Springs ATH – vs MIN (15), vs BAL (12) 31:50
• Tyler Phillips MIA – vs BOS (17), @ WSH (6) 32:08
• THE REST – 34:00
• Adrian Houser SF – vs CIN (30), vs ARI (28) – the one we like of the group
• Matthew Liberatore STL – vs BAL (12), vs PIT (24)
• Kyle Freeland COL – @ WSH (2), @ ATL (14)
• Ryan Feltner COL – @ WSH (6), @ ATL (12)
• Chris Bassitt BAL – @ STL (24), @ ATH (14)
• Jose Urquidy CWS – vs TEX (25), @ MIN (9)
• Ethan Pecko HOU – @ NYY (20), @ NYM (26)

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Approximately 47 minutes of joyous analysis.

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8/20/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2027 DRAFT REVIEW

• 1st round
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong 1
  • Yordan Alvarez 9 returns
  • Jordan Walker 10, Jacob Misiorowski 12, CJ Abrams 13 join

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I wonder how many teams that drafted Ian Seymour are still benefitting from the fruits of his summer labor. A popular late round breakout pick after 57 solid innings to close out last year, Seymour didn’t make the rotation out of camp and promptly allowed 5 ER without getting an out in his season debut. If that didn’t lead to a rash of cuts, his residence in the bullpen for the first 2+ months almost certainly did in most leagues. In mid-June they started mixing him in for starts and extended follows (4, 5 IP in 2 starts; 3.3, 6.7 IP in 2 follows) and since July, he’s had a traditional starter’s workload with 7 starts and 2 long follows. In that stretch, he’s put up a 3.59 ERA/1.03 WHIP/25% K-BB, leading to 6 Ws in 13 appearances.

While I thought he had the workload established to avoid needing the ramp up management (143 in 2025; 145 in 2024), I did still think that Tampa Bay would take that approach. From my March SP rankings:

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but one as a pro and that one sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

Seymour’s excellent changeup helps him profile as the rare lefty who decimates righties (204-point reverse platoon OPS split: .622 vR, .826 vL) and the opposition almost protects him from his weakness, too, by stacking righties against him in hopes of getting a platoon edge that never seems to come their way. The lefty struggles are heavily tied to his 8 HRs allowed in 145 PA, compared to 7 vR in 254 PA. I still see a 25% K-BB (42 Ks, 6 BB) against lefties as a major reason to believe he will get better against them even if he regresses some against righties (a still-healthy 19% K-BB, but a .252 BABIP that won’t necessarily hold firm). If he continues to excel down the stretch, his draft price will skyrocket and he should be positioned to be a full-time starter out of camp for Tampa Bay in 2027. Does the original Seymour drafter still have him in your league?

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