Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
I’ll drop some comments later this morning after Justin and I record the 2-start episode. I’m going to start using the W more in the board which is just a pure Win chase. This is for those who don’t care about their ratios and can chase Wins over anything else.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
I had planned on an SP rankings update this week but as I thought about it more, I’m not sure it’s worth pouring hours into an update that is going to be so fraught with uncertainty due to innings limits & injuries, especially when a 1-to-whatever ranking isn’t going to be terribly useful in the final three weeks when everything is context-based at this point in the season. Instead, I’ll start putting energy into a 2027 list and get the first edition of that up earlier than normal (likely sometime in October). For now, I’m going to stay focused on the SP chart and being available to y’all in the comments to help with your very specific situations.
FYI – No chat from me today. I have a doc appointment, but I’ll gladly answer questions on this post (or tomorrow’s SP chart, of course)!
I cited CLE’s unappealing offense as a reason to run Brandon Young so of course they dropped 6 ER on him, but I’m still attacking this offense with anything close to competent starts. I trust Baz more than Young, so let’s run it back.
Zebby’s HR rate always leaves him susceptible, but he gets a DET team that’s dead-last in wOBA v. righties in the L30 days so I like him to bounce back from his 5 IP/4 ER/3 HR outing last time out.
Gausman gets MIL for the 2nd straight start and for years I’ve been citing an older study that said the first start had no major correlation on the second regardless of how it went and as such you can just make your decision based on the pitcher without letting that 1st start influence you too much. But I have an update thanks to my favorite team, the Tigers! They showed a graphic that shows SPs falling off substantially in the aggregate during that 2nd start this season. Obviously, it’s not 100%, but if you’re protecting ratios, I can see skipping Gausman in some spots. I’ve attached the graphic below.
ReyLo is coming off the IL, so I downgraded him to just 1-x. Y’all know I love him, but that doesn’t mean we have to get crazy and start him in a buncha spots v. TBR.
I know Kade Anderson is the hot new flavor of the month, but he’s been “meh” in his first three starts and TEX slams lefties, so let’s be careful here.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
Sorry, we have Yoshi instead of Skubal… I fixed it!
I’m not sure Young’s skills match his mid-3.00s ERA, but he’s been consistently solid across 24 starts, having allowed 4 or fewer ER in all of ’em and CLE is always a nice matchup.
Painter has been excellent since his recall: 3.14 ERA/0.90 WHIP/16% K-BB with just one bad start (5 ER at MIN) among the seven.
Peralta has looked sharp in his last 2 (at DET, v. NYM) but a trip to ATL is a much more robust challenge so let’s be careful and not just blindly run him.
Manaea is coming off back-to-back Duds, but those were against TBR and MIL. He’s been much stronger against the weaker teams this year so while MIA is only 1 game under .500, their offense has been bottom-10 vL so I’m willing to give him a shot.
I’m a longtime fan of Sandoval but he is just bludgeoning the WHIP with a 1.74 mark. And yet, I still have a 2-x for him against LAA, who sit 26th vL on the year and dead-last over the L30 days.
Miller is at home where he flourishes (3.14 ERA/0.88 WHIP) but he hasn’t finished 5 IP in any of L3 and the last two at home haven’t been great. I can see taking the shot here as the TEX offense certainly isn’t scary, but I wasn’t super comfortable going beyond 1-x.
SP Rankings(last update: 7/24 | next: week of 9/7)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
We’re off for the holiday so no comments today, but figured I would still run a board-only post for y’all! Btw, a few of y’all DM’d me about how Charlotte’s procedure went and it was great. She didn’t end up needing all her teeth out, just 2! And we’ve been through a 2-tooth removal before and everything went very smoothly again.
OK, I lied on no comments, I gotta give a few notes with some quirky things going on today:
Burns is expected to be limited, but we don’t know exactly what that looks like (will it be 2-3 IP?). But it’s also a trip to LAD, so I’m not super excited to run. He also gets at MIL this weekend so just a brutal 2-step paired w/the limitations makes him a reasonable sit in a lot of spots, particularly if you’re chasing Ws.
Ryan is returning from the IL with Connor Prielipp slated to go behind him. Again, not sure what sort of limit he’ll be on so definitely not a must-start.
Pivetta returning from the IL, too, and had 64 pitches in his last rehab outing so he could have enough rope to go 5, but with James Wood back, WSN isn’t the greatest matchup.
SP Rankings(last update: 7/24 | next: week of 9/7)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
I have to take Charlotte to the vet for a big dental procedure (my little ol’ lady is going to be fully toothless!) and then record the 2-start pod with Justin this morning. I can drop some notes and answer any comments after that but holy moly this is one of the worst full slates I’ve seen all year! Only 11 full recos and then 6 sketchy recos in the 1-2x range.
DET-CLE does have a doubleheader, but neither of the second starts (Logan Allen로건 for CLE, Andrew Sears for DET in what is likely a bullpen game) merit any attention.
Thanks for coming out! If you missed it, please feel free to drop a comment with your question and I’ll get to it when I can. You can also leave questions in my daily SP charts in you have an inquiry on a non-chat day.
1:01
Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!!
1:03
yochuckie: Two possibly three weeks remaining in the fantasy season/playoffs. Does Julio Rodriguez get an opportunity to make up some ground in his supposed second half extravaganza or is he just who he is? A healthy version of LuBob?
1:06
Paul Sporer: Yeah we didn’t get our normal elite JRod in the second half. After a huge May, it looked like maybe he was gonna finally get a monster season top to bottom, but that turned out to be his only good one. A .250 2H BABIP is really holding him back. He’s one of those stars who isn’t meeting expectations but is still too good to take outta the lineup in most situations
1:07
MD: Looks like Fried/Warren piggybacking this week after a short outing last week. Weekly league, you rolling with him next week (NYM), or would you take Bennet (LAA) or even Painter (HOU, @ATL)?
1:07
Paul Sporer: Over your Fried you’re saying?
1:07
Paul Sporer: I’d probably lean Bennett straight up for this week, especially since Fried will likely get the frontend and not be eligible for the W
