Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Comments in the morning!
I was among those ready for the Eury Pérez ascent this year. A pair of 90-something IP samples separated by a TJ year saw him put up a 3.71 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 20% K-BB in 187 IP. I would, of course, loved that as a line this year but I’ll admit I had dreams of even more on that ERA front. While my expectation was ace, it was certainly in cards as a reasonable outcome for the 23-year old. And it may still come fruition, it’s a long season after all, but as we sit here on May 22nd, he’s no doubt on the verge of being cut in some shallow leagues, particularly if tonight goes poorly. In fact, because I’m writing the commentary a few hours the board went up I know there’s already a comment saying as much! And frankly, I get it. Worse yet, us Eury fans are to blame for our overzealousness.
We’re not to blame for his struggles, obviously, but rather our expectations were a bit outsized even before the benefit of hindsight. Lost in the gloss of his first 187 IP was both the glaring HR issue and modest BB% output. While he did improve his HR rate last year from 1.5 to 1.1, anything north of 1.0 puts you in the danger zone, though his pristine WHIP made it less of a huge concern with the idea being that limited base runners should keep those to mostly solo shots. That’s where the walks come in. I’m not saying anyone should’ve fully predicted his rate ballooning to 12%, but matching 8.3% marks in his first two seasons essentially left him around average. The walk rate on its own isn’t something that would raise a red flag for me, especially with that 28% strikeout rate supporting it, but when paired with the home run troubles, it should’ve at least opened my eyes to the potential of trouble for Pérez. I was operating as though he was much more of a finished product than we’ve seen so far this year: 5.33/1.41/13% in 52 IP.
Now he gets a Mets team that is last in wOBA vR on the season, but finding their footing a bit of late, sitting 15th in the last two weeks. Another stinker here, particularly if it ends up being his 6th straight start with at least 2 BB (only 2 starts under 2 BB this and those were both 1, so he has 0 BB-free starts), has to start bringing up some shallow league cut questions and definitely puts him on the bench for me in medium and deep leagues with a trip TOR coming up next week. And the lack of a cut in those formats is definitely due more to lack of quality options off the wire. If you’re blessed with some wire gems who are better than Pérez, then by all means, but as I look over the available names in my 15-teamers where I have him, I see the likes of his teammate Janson Junk, newcomer Tatsuya Imai, and also-ran Padres Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning, none of whom are appealing enough for me to make the move.
Others of note:
Myers in for Peralta as the Mets pushed their guys back a day. Thanks to commenter David Klein on the note there! We still had Peralta in when I ran the board last night.
Gilbert has two Duds this year, including a 7 ER bomb his last time out which pushed his ERA to 4.45 on the year and has led to some light chatter about his status on rosters. I don’t really agree with that, even in shallow leagues. In between the 2 Duds, he posted a 2.97 ERA/1.10 WHIP/20% K-BB in 39 IP. Worth noting he went >5 IP in both Duds, too, which is what aces do to salvage ERAs even during their worst outings. The 1.7 HR9 is a bit alarming on the season but that is a very recent issue with 7 HRs in L3, including 4 v. ATL. This is a good spot to get right at KCR, but even if it’s wobbly, I’d be more open to buying low than any sort of cut.
Soroka has some upside to him if he can reel in his hit rate. A 28% LD rate has pushed him up to a .351 BABIP and left him with a 9.4 H9. That line drive rate should hopefully regress back toward his 22% mark or ideally even further down toward his 16% rate from 2023-25 and bring the hit rate down with it. His 20% K-BB is worthy of a low-3.00s ERA if he can shave this WHIP down.
Henderson only has 43 IP as a big leaguer, but he’s been electric (2.49/1.02/27%) and paired with his minor league track record and prospect pedigree have me ready to run him anywhere versus the ever-difficult Dodgers. Sometimes doing the comments hours after post can be really helpful because the wonderful commenters help me out with rundowns like this about Henderson from Anon:
I’m sure Paul will chime in but there are so many stats where Henderson is basically elite: 28.2% K-BB 87.7 EV 28.9% HardHit 35.0% O-swingNow, his Barrel% is a a little higher than you’d like and while his 13.0% SwStr is very good, it isn’t elite. He also is an heavily extreme FB pitcher so there is always a risk of a HR game messing things up. He also has an insanely high overall Swing% so batters are swinging at everything he throws up there, not just balls.I also like that he’s home. We all know about Coors and everyone knows T-Mobile is an extreme pitcher’s park, but Milwaukee is a pitcher’s park and importantly, it is an extreme strikeout park. I’m starting to think that we underrate that about that park. It has a K park factor around 110 year-in, year-out. We all note that the Brewers are good at developing pitching, but maybe it’s at least partly the ballpark.
No sense just repeating all that in a different way, Anon nailed it. Here we go with Henderson today!
I sliced an “x” off Arrighetti from the original posting as I’m just a bit nervous about his 14% BB rate heading to Wrigley.
I know it’s so hard to bench a 1.51 ERA/1.04 WHIP with Martinez, but I really don’t see him being any different than last year outside of his fortunate 5% HR/FB rate. He has a 16% K, 5% BB, 8% SwStr this year v. 17%, 6%, 9% last year. But a 91% LOB, .255 BABIP, and that aforementioned 5% HR/FB are driving the bus and run completely counter to his 69%, .274, 11% last year and 74%, .280, and 11% career marks. He is catching NYY at the right time (26th vR the L14 days), but it still feels like a big regression start.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize (12) delivers a pitch against Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit in Monday, August 4, 2025.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Got rid of the Blue/Black color coding at the top/bottom end. Just Green = good, Yellow = OK, Red = bad.
RAGBRAI: When/if Woodruff returns to the rotation, who gets bumped? And is it to the bullpen or AAA?
1:03
Paul Sporer: The thing is, those questions often sort themselves out by someone else getting hurt by the time someone else is returning from the IL, in this case Woody. Gasser is last one so prob first one out right now
1:04
Carter: 12 Team 5×5 Cats: Should i finally cut bait on Matt Chapman? and Who would you look for to replace him? Some names on the wire: J. Jung, I. Paredes, A. Bohm, N. Arenado? (also I have Colt Emerson waiting for 3B eligibility)
1:06
Paul Sporer: Ya the extreme power outage is enough to push me off in 12s. I’d go for Jung with as strong as he’s been. Assuming that’s Josh, right? Surprised if he’s out there!
1:06
RAGBRAI: What can we expet from Dylan Crews? Not surprised he didn’t making OD, put has he done enough at AAA to realy to push his way into everyday ABs in the OF? They can’t have brought him up to sit or platoon, could they?
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Hancock bounced back from his only Dud of the year with a 6 IP/1 ER gem v. SDP.
Early has tapped into his Ks the last 2 times out with 14 in 12 IP, against 2 tough to K teams, too! (TBR/ATL have 2nd/8th lowest K% vL).
Going into Wrigley is never easy, but Harrison has looked every bit like the 3x Top 100 Prospect he was coming up.
Upon further look, Cabrera might deserve a lower ranking. He hasn’t been bad, but after opening the season w/11.7 scoreless IP, he has a 5.26 ERA in 7 starts. Despite the elevated ERA, he’s only allowed more than 3 ER just once so it’s not like he’s getting stomped every 5th day. Not sure I’d take any 2-x’ers over him so I’d probably only drop him to 11 on a re-rank.
McGreevy’s been great this year with a 2.10 ERA/0.88 WHIP thru 9 starts but the 4.08 SIERA hints at trouble ahead. The .203 BABIP/90% LOB rate can’t sustain at those levels so there will be regression and it could be sharp. Throw in that PIT has been great vR this year and this becomes a bit dangerous. It’s tough because how can you put ratios like that on your bench even when you know danger is comin’?
Anderson might need to stretch out to be a full part of the rotation, but he did make it 4 IP last time out and I do think he could be a solid SP for DET once fully stretched out.
All 3 1-x guys are terrifying for their own reasons – Vásquez for the matchup, of course, and Nola/Burrows because they simply haven’t been great this year but their matchups give ’em a tinge of playability. I’d rather take the better guy facing the Dodgers, though.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
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I played it a bit cautiously with the three huge sophomore surges – Nolan McLean, Jacob Misiorowski, and Cam Schlittler – ranking them in the same tier at 33, 35, and 38, respectively. I wasn’t out on any of them, but also was far from chasing, either. I was furthest off McLean who went as the 22nd SP in the NFBC Main Event while Schlittler and Miz went in order at 32, 33. Miz gave me the most pause with his command and control profile leaving me concerned about the depth of his floor without some development. Not only did his already-top-of-the-scale stuff get better (insane 126 STF+ is up 10 pts from last yr) and push his K rate up to an eye-popping 40%, but he lopped three points off his walk rate to just 8%, too! After a walk-free outing last time out, he’s at just a 6% clip over his last four starts totaling 5 BB in 24.3 IP.
He’s all but shelved his changeup, down 8 pts v. lefties at a 3% usage rate. More fastballs and sliders have been more than enough (plus his curve holding steady at 14% usage for 3 legit offerings) against lefty batters as he’s just smothering them to the tune of a .125/.248/.208 slash that somehow still includes 2 HRs (Andrés Giménez, Daulton Varsho) but more importantly is powered by a 35% K-BB. Averaging 99.6 mph on your fastball opens up your margin for error so much and it seems like he hasn’t even had to test those boundaries yet with everything clicking.
Yes, we can also acknowledge the added injury risk that throwing 100 mph that often brings, too, but injury risk had nothing to do with the lack of Miz shares in my portfolio. I mostly worried the walk rate could balloon into the teens and put too much pressure on his BABIP to not exacerbate the issue and give him a 1.30+ WHIP. There was a little bit on a lack of track record, too, but that has gotten less and less important in today’s new pitching landscape. It doesn’t mean you litter your rotation with rookies and sophomores, but shutting out that pool entirely because they’re rookies and sophs is a losing strategy.
Burns was actually in the same tier as those three sophomores, but down at 58 as he was a more active fade. I just felt like he was early stage Hunter Greene but he’s avoided the crippling HR problem his teammate has experienced throughout most of his career, especially early on. Burns sits at just 1.0 HR9 which is plenty fine for his skillset while Greene was up at 1.6 through his first 238 IP. Too often I hear folks use the “he’s so-and-so 2.0” bit when they’re just saying someone is the same as another guy, but Burns is actually Greene 2.0 so far in that he’s a refined version, an improvement, which is how that phrase is meant to be used. It’s still all of 96 IP but he’s got a 22% K-BB, .211 AVG, and 1.0 HR9 compared to Greene at 21%, .235, 1.6 in his first two seasons (in 2.5x as many IP). I can’t wait to watch all 4 of these standout sophomores pitch all summer.
How many of you angrily sat Luzardo after his COL meltdown (at home, mind you, not in Coors) only to miss 6 scoreless at BOS? That is why I just set and forget with him. I signed up for the rollercoaster so until I see skills degradation or any sort of major injury indicator, I’ll take the bad with the good and see how it looks in October.
Sheehan got off to a bumpy start with 4 HRs in his first three outings leading to a 6.60 ERA and a weak 12% K-BB. Of course he was still 2-0 in those outings because of LAD’s incredible support. Since then he has essentially one bad inning at STL (3-run 1st) but otherwise has been the guy people expected when he hit that huge helium wave in mid-March: 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K-BB in 27 IP.
Roupp’s been excellent this year and didn’t even crush you if you took the shot at LAD. Sure, 5.3 IP/4 ER isn’t great, but I understand wanting to play the hot hand and you still got 7 Ks. That is now 4 ER in two of his last three starts, though, and I’m a bit concerned by the multiple walks in each of his last six starts, totaling 18 (12% BB).
Is Bradish going to rug pull us now that we’re jumping back in? Back-to-back excellent starts including 6 IP of 1-hit ball against NYY. His 25% K rate will be tested this week and next with back-to-back start against TBR (there tomorrow, home next wk) and then TOR on the backend of his 2-step. They are the top two teams in K% against righties (TOR 18%, TBR 19%) and the only two teams below 20%.
Detmers isn’t quite a must-start in 10s but remember that 10 of his 17 BB came in two rough starts so he’s been more of a intermittent WHIP risk as opposed to a steady one. He’s still toting a Top 30 K-BB (17%) which goes a long way for me. Plus, it’s a 2-start week so he’s an easy sweep start in weekly moves leagues.
Brown got up to 65 pitches last time out so he could reasonably get to 5 IP this time out, but the likelihood of a sub-5 IP outing does keep him from must-start status in shallow leagues.
Could still be more ERA regression for Montero, but if he can maintain a quality WHIP even as that .225 BABIP pushes back toward his .279 (or higher) then there’s still still streamability here. This is a big 2-step week (at BAL this wknd) and it will help shape the decision for at CHW next week as they have a powerful approach and he lacks the swing-and-miss to take full advantage of their 24% K (3rd vR).
Pure matchup play for Liberatore as PIT sits just 23rd in wOBA vL while their 27% K rate is 3rd. There are no guarantees Libby can take full advantage of that K rate, sitting at just 17%
The Cardinals lefties could give Keller fits (+372 pt. OPS split; .726 vL). The OPS total itself isn’t crazy (42nd, min. 100 PA) but his 15% K% is tied for 5th-lowest and STL has the lowest K% vL (18%).
I’m not completely off Garrett after his season debut Dud but a visit from ATL isn’t the best get-right start.
Zebby was great in his season debut (7 scoreless) and he’s catching HOU in a bit of a lull (24th wOBA L2 wks), but it’s not enough to win me back yet. He had just a 22% K rate in Triple-A and showed just a 7% SwStr during this debut. A capable start here will drive confidence in next week’s 2-step (at CHW, at PIT).
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
