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Starting Pitcher 2026 Fantasy Rankings

by
December 23, 2025
John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Changelog

  • 12/23/2025 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Here is the opening look at the top 150 pitchers for the 2026 season. I’ll have plenty of updates including some tier updates/changes as I dive deeper on players and figure out better fits for them. I will eventually expand the list, too. I cut it at 150 for now just to have an endpoint, but I have something like 264 ranked. Drop a comment if you have questions on anyone, even if I haven’t written them up yet, but check back regularly for more profile additions.

Ace

The cream of the crop. The pitchers who require an early round pick to acquire and they are worth it!
Ace
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Tarik Skubal DET SP – 6 $43
2 Paul Skenes PIT SP – 10 $36
3 Garrett Crochet BOS SP – 10 $37
4 Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD SP – 23 $15
5 Logan Gilbert SEA SP – 35 $22
6 Hunter Greene CIN SP – 44 $15
7 Cristopher Sánchez PHI SP – 30 $26
8 Cole Ragans KCR SP – 50 $23
9 Max Fried NYY SP – 57 $19
10 Hunter Brown HOU SP – 33 $16

Either of the “Sk Boys” are viable in the 1-spot and I’m leaning toward Tarik Skubal because of the Tigers though still unrelated to my fandom of them. In fantasy baseball, team context matters it’s still clear that the Tigers give Skubal more win potential than the Pirates offer Skenes. Wins are still unpredictable, though, so Skubal could have 12 and Skenes 15 by season’s end… again, it’s a coinflip at the 1-spot.

It is worth noting that Paul Skenes easily has the best ERA in baseball the last two seasons (min. 100 IP) with a tiny 1.96 mark in 321 IP. Only Jacob deGrom (120!) tops his 116 Pitching+ (Skubal, Zack Wheeler, and Corbin Burnes are tied at 116) in that same time. In short, he’s amazing and if he’s your #1 SP, it’s perfectly justifiable.

All the talk of the “Sk Boys” as the unquestioned top 2 guys might be overlooking Garrett Crochet as a viable #1 in his own right. His 2024-25 combined numbers aren’t as strong because his ERA was relatively high for an ace in ’24 (3.58) but his 2.72 SIERA is the best of the trio as are his 33% K and 27% K-BB rates. He’s also the only one of them to deliver a 200+ IP season. Addtionally, the Red Sox were the best of these three teams last year and likely will be again in 2026. I didn’t expect this write-up to go this way but it’s a firm 3-way battle for the top spot. Taking Crochet is every bit as viable as the “Sk Boys”… maybe it’s time to start calling him “Skcrochet” so he’s firmly in the group!

I had Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the lock #4 after the regular season and after his amazing playoff run, that is now consensus. I wasn’t out on some super risky limb so I’ll chill on the back-patting, I was just surprised that it was being seen as a lock 3 and then wide open despite what we had just seen in 30-start season from Yamamoto. He did still only amass 174 IP (28th) and I’m left wondering if that’s about his cap or a step toward 200+.

It’s easy to see the Dodgers having no real incentive to push any starter so they have juice for October to do exactly what Yamamoto just did. Conversely, he was their first 30-start pitcher since Julio Urías in 2022 and both Urías and Walker Buehler in 2021 so maybe he is going to be the one steady workhorse while they massage the rest throughout the year. His pitches per gm went up from 90 to 99 in the second half followed by the exquisite playoff run that saw three counts at 105+ including the back-to-back CGs. Let’s plan for more of the same and be pleasantly surprised if the Dodgers let him in the upper reaches of pitches per game.

Can Logan Gilbert’s 131-IP season be the final nail in the “safe innings” coffin? It’s fugazi, it’s a whazy. It’s a woozie. It’s fairy dust… no, that doesn’t mean I think some rookie has the same IP cap as a Gilbert or Logan Webb, etc… but rather that you’re deluding yourself in thinking that pitchers are inherently bankable. They all carry *extreme* injury risk. That’s no shade on Gilbert, either, as I fully believe in his talent. It was just the repeated refrain that he was a lock 30+ starts.

Draft Gilbert because he had a 5 pt. jump in K% to a career-best 32% thanks to his 3rd-ranked 16% SwStr rate. The 144 Stf+ on his splitter was far and away the best in baseball and he leaned on it more with a 20% usage rate. I’d also like to be clear that I’m not suggesting there is no value to Gilbert pitching 32-33 starts in all three seasons from 2022-24. It shows Seattle’s confidence in him and makes clear that they’ll let him go when healthy and upright, a right not afforded to all starters. My disconnect came with using Gilbert’s workload as the reason to take him over guys like deGrom and Crochet despite acknowledging that they’d almost certainly be better on a per-inning basis. In today’s lower inning landscape, I just want the most talented arms and I’ll let the innings play out.

I was steering clear of Hunter Greene last year and even shared concerns of a real downside season. I was of course dead wrong and despite his HR rate jumping back up to 1.3, his ERA moved all 0.01 while his WHIP tumbled to a career-best 0.94, albeit in just 108 IP. He’s only reached 150 IP once, averaging just 124 IP over his four seasons, but he made the most of his short 2025 sample thanks to a sharp 3 pt. drop in BB% to 6%. Maintaining that will be key to surviving the homers, assuming he doesn’t improve that issue this year. There is legitimate #1 overall SP upside here as hopefully the 26-year old can stay fully healthy and deliver his first 30-start campaign.

It was a huge breakthrough season for Cristopher Sánchez where both his excellent walk and homer rates held firm while adding 6 pts to his K%. We now have 483 IP of great work from Sánchez (3.00 ERA/1.13 WHIP/18% K-BB) and I think we could see a full season of his 2023 numbers: 3.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP/20% K-BB.

It was an injury washout for Cole Ragans as he managed just 62 IP, but his skills were fantastic (30% K-BB) and neither the 64% LOB nor the .354 BABIP feel like his true skill level so I absolutely expect a performance closer to his 2.52 SIERA than 4.67 ERA.

While Max Fried lacks the premium strikeout capability of his peers here in this tier, he makes up for it with good walk rates and a consistent penchant for limiting homers thanks to his groundball lean. His 0.65 HR9 is 4th in MLB since 2022 (min. 300 IP) thanks to a groundball heavy approach (54% GB is 9th). He did also have a career-best 95.8 mph fastball last year (93.9 career), too, and it’ll be interesting to see if he holds those gains in 2026.

Hunter Brown leveraged some small skill improvements and a tiny .262 BABIP into an ace season. His SIERA dropped from 3.74 to 3.39 thanks to a 3 pt. K% boost and a couple fewer walks (-0.6%). He will likely push closer to his career .299 BABIP but if it comes with a 18-20% K-BB rate, he can front a fantasy rotation.

Next Up

Just short of being the locked in aces, usually for just one reason that if improved will take them to the top.
Next Up
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
11 Bryan Woo SEA SP – 39 $22
13 George Kirby SEA SP – 65 $21
14 Shohei Ohtani LAD SP – 1 $13
15 Freddy Peralta MIL SP – 62 $12
18 Joe Ryan MIN SP – 64 $17

Bryan Woo made it through the rotation 30 times, but he was injured late and unavailable for most of the playoffs. Health has been the only real hangup, well that and a bit of a homer issue. Pitchers who never walk anyone (5% career BB%) usually allow a few more longballs and given how hard he’s been to consistently hit (.246 BABIP, .208 AVG), some extra solo shots just haven’t hurt him. Betting on hit suppression can be dangerous so heed his 3.47 SIERA against that 2.92 ERA the last two years. The real key will be holding the strikeout gains (+6 pts to 27%).

Dangit, I fell for the timeline on George Kirby. The reports were positive and because I like him, I neglected to add the customary extra weeks to the timeline. Instead of being back 3-4 wks into the season, he debuted on May 22nd. From there, he had some sharp ups and downs thanks to 4 Duds (5+ ER) in 23 starts. He opened with two before ripping off 2.84 ERA and 22% K-BB in 76 IP. Then two 7 ER bombs in his next four ensured a 4.00+ ERA for the year despite his best efforts with a 2.95 ERA and 36% K-BB in his last four.

It’s just so hard to know where to rank Shohei Ohtani as a starting pitcher-only without some insights on how much they plan to use him on the mound in 2026. Plus he’s a true 2-way asset at most outlets so you’re buying the bat with the pitching sprinkled on top. He was excellent when pitching and was allowed to throw 6 IP in 3 of his 4 postseason starts. As long as he’s a consistent 5-6 IP guy, he’s awesome and it becomes a really interesting choice each week of how to deploy him, especially if you land some extra hitting to where you’re less reliant on Ohtani’s dominance at the dish.

We now have three straight seasons of at least 30 starts for Freddy Peralta with an average of 172 IP that peaked this year at just under 177. He has shown he can hold up over a full season multiple times now, but it does seem the Brewers are content to take the 5-and-dive and turn it over to their usually strong pen. It didn’t keep him from logging an NL-best 17 Wins and he’s reached 200 strikeouts in each of the three seasons, so the primary reasons you’d want to ding him for the lower volume are covered. Well, the strikeouts are covered… just because he won 17 this past season doesn’t mean he will do it again, but the point is that he isn’t destined to 10-12 every year as a 5-and-dive.

Joe Ryan has been walking the HR tightrope for his whole career, usually with flying colors as his 4.51 ERA in 2023 is the only real blemish on his record. This is why missing bats and limiting walks is so important. Despite the 9th worst HR9 (1.5), his 6th best K-BB (23%) guides him to a palatable 3.83 ERA and excellent 1.07 WHIP. There is ERA blowup potential, but bankable WHIP and Ks keep him ranked high.

Per Inning Monsters

Innings are a bit of a crapshoot altogether, but it’d be foolish to pretend everyone has the exact same potential workload. These guys haven’t delivered the innings with any consistency but they are so good when they pitch and if they do spike 30+ starts, you’ve got a stud.
Per Inning Monsters
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
12 Blake Snell LAD SP – 62 $15
16 Chris Sale ATL SP – 33 $27
17 Jacob deGrom TEX SP – 44 $26
19 Spencer Schwellenbach ATL SP – 78 $14
20 Kyle Bradish BAL SP – 76 $11
21 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP – 109 $13
22 Nick Pivetta SDP SP – 86 $14
23 Eury Pérez MIA SP – 83 $8
25 Jesús Luzardo PHI SP – 73 $18
26 Shane Bieber TOR SP – 135 $7
45 Drew Rasmussen TBR SP – 144 $7
51 Nathan Eovaldi TEX SP – 149 $16

Pitchers like Blake Snell are usually quite divisive in the fantasy world. You’re either all in or all out… rarely do I see fence straddlers with him. He has just 104 and 61 IP the last two years but then of course two Cy Youngs the two times he managed 180+ so the upside is amazing rich. And it’s not like the partial seasons are all downside. He has a 2.83 ERA/1.13 WHIP/22% K-BB in those 165 IP and you get to replace him, so his numbers plus the fill-in(s) is what you’re getting out of the draft slot.

Maybe Chris Sale is just an ace even at 37 years old. Sure, he only pitched 126 innings after his Cy Young win in 2024, but he was every bit as good. I don’t have any real concerns about his skills… draft him based on your tolerance for an older pitcher with some recent health issues.

I was so in on Jacob deGrom last year hoping that his late-season flourish in 2024 was a harbinger. Emphasis on hoping because I certainly didn’t know the 37-year old righty would take 30 turns and throw 173 IP. It’s awesome that it went so well, but I’m left with an agonizing feeling of essentially “cashing out” or staying bought in. I don’t think he collapses regardless of what happens as we generally expect the innings to be good, we just don’t know how many he’ll throw. A year older now and a rather disconcerting 1.4 HR9 which was masked over by the .194 AVG and 6% BB leave me a bit cautious about the rebuy.

An elbow fracture ended Spencer Schwellenbach’s season in late-June which makes him a tougher rank, but I’m going to lean high. I’ll circle back around for more analysis as we get news throughout the remainder of the winter. On the field, he followed up his breakout rookie year with another 111 strong innings of work so unless we get bad news on the injury, I’m in. More later.

I know it was only six starts, but I’m back in on Kyle Bradish! In fact, he only has 14 starts the last two years and yet he’s given us no reason to think he can’t get back to his 2023 output (2.83 ERA/1.04 WHIP) and possibly with much better skills, though I know we can’t expect his 26% K-BB to necessarily hold up for a full season, but even cracking 20% would be an improvement on 2023’s 19% mark.

Workhorses

Putting together multiple ERA-qualified (162+ IP) seasons is noteworthy in today’s game
Workhorses
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
24 Dylan Cease TOR SP – 70 $18
27 Framber Valdez FA SP – 90 $14
28 Zack Wheeler PHI SP – 146 $18
30 Kevin Gausman TOR SP – 117 $7
31 Carlos Rodón NYY SP – 186 $7
33 Logan Webb SFG SP – 56 $22
36 Sandy Alcantara MIA SP – 161 $1
38 Sonny Gray BOS SP – 109 $15
49 Luis Castillo SEA SP – 158 $11

Sonny Gray is headed to Boston after a winter trade looking to rebound from a modest 4.28 ERA/1.23 WHIP in 2025. His 22% K-BB could stop the bleeding induced by a .329 BABIP and 1.3 HR9. Fenway and Busch are similarly pitcher-friendly on homers so the new park shouldn’t inflate that issue. I’ll be curious to see what Boston has in store for Gray because it’s not like he’s broken, he’s bringing plenty to work with and now has three straight years of at least 166 IP including 2 over 180.

Frontliners

I consider my top 3 starters as my frontline. They are usually shy of being aces, but rotation locks who carry some real expectation.
Frontliners
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
29 Brandon Woodruff MIL SP – 109 $13
32 Ryan Pepiot TBR SP – 135 $2
35 Nick Lodolo CIN SP – 126 $5
41 Pablo López MIN SP – 138 $13
42 Trevor Rogers BAL SP – 170 -$1
48 Michael King SDP SP – 145 $11

Veteran Presents

A positive spin on the “veteran presence” trope that highlights a group of veteran types who can bring some good to your team in some form or fashion.
Veteran Presents
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
40 Robbie Ray SFG SP – 153 $2
73 Jack Flaherty DET SP – 216 $8
76 Aaron Nola PHI SP – 209 $10
80 José Berríos TOR SP – 454 -$4
82 Jeffrey Springs ATH SP – 425 -$6

Prove It Arms

They haven’t quite shown enough to be a bankable frontliner yet (Imai could immediately, but he’s a unique situation) but we’re excited to roster them.
Prove It Arms
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
34 Spencer Strider ATL SP – 100 $12
37 Bryce Miller SEA SP – 240 $0
39 Emmet Sheehan LAD SP – 120 $6
43 Nolan McLean NYM SP – 93 $6
44 Gavin Williams CLE SP – 140 $1
46 Tatsuya Imai FA SP – -$4
47 Jacob Misiorowski MIL SP – 126 $2
50 Cam Schlittler NYY SP – 122 $1
69 Reese Olson DET SP – 304 $1
92 Shane Smith CHW SP – 269 -$4

Post-Hype Potential

No longer the apple of the fantasy’s community eye, these guys come at much cheaper rates while still holding plenty of upside.
Post-Hype Potential
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
52 Tanner Bibee CLE SP – 177 $5
53 Edward Cabrera MIA SP – 190 $2
54 MacKenzie Gore WAS SP – 197 $12
63 Shane Baz BAL SP – 194 $0
64 Zac Gallen FA SP – 224 $2
74 Quinn Priester MIL SP – 280 -$2
79 Kodai Senga NYM SP – 304 $1
89 Brayan Bello BOS SP – 340 -$7
96 Brady Singer CIN SP – 328 -$2
97 David Peterson NYM SP – 362 $7
99 Will Warren NYY SP – 325 $1

Team Streamers

You’re not starting them all the time, but you’re usually just reserving them. I do focus on deeper formats so the line on Team Streamer definitely moves depending on league size. I might change this tier over the winter as I think it’s a better fit in-season.
Team Streamers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
55 Ranger Suárez FA SP – 176 $12
56 Shota Imanaga CHC SP – 172 $8
57 Matthew Boyd CHC SP – 229 $8
58 Ryne Nelson ARI SP – 265 -$3
59 Cade Horton CHC SP – 189 -$3
60 Casey Mize DET SP – 263 $3
61 Andrew Abbott CIN SP – 208 -$4
66 Merrill Kelly ARI SP – 244 $3
67 Clay Holmes NYM SP – 349 $0
98 Mike Burrows HOU SP – 353 $0
103 Michael Wacha KCR SP – 370 -$3
119 Chris Bassitt FA SP – 404 $1
122 Max Scherzer FA SP – 520 $0

I’m really torn on where to rank Shota Imanaga. I value a WHIP stud even if he comes with some ERA risk… but I think I’m just the worried the ERA risk is low-5.00s. He had a 1.9 HR9 last year! We knew homers would be part of his game coming over so it’s not a shock. As a super flyball pitcher, he’s generally going to allow fewer hits, but if BABIP runs cold on him then he’s Bailey Ober. Be careful.

Andrew Abbott did add 5 pts to his K-BB, up to 16% but I still think there was plenty of “run-hot” in his 2.87 ERA. All ERA indicators point to something more in the upper-3.00s to low-4.00s range and that feels like the right range. The market is much sharper on this player class in the last several years with Seth Lugo being the posterboy last year.

We’ll revisit Max Scherzer when he signs.

Raw Upside

Major talents who haven’t done it yet.
Raw Upside
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
68 Trey Yesavage TOR SP – 140 $7
70 Chase Burns CIN SP – 114 $9
71 Bubba Chandler PIT SP – 147 -$4
72 Roki Sasaki LAD SP – 222 -$2
78 Noah Cameron KCR SP – 258 -$3
81 Troy Melton DET SP – 261 -$2
84 Jack Leiter TEX SP – 243 -$4
85 Ian Seymour TBR SP – 304 -$4
87 Joey Cantillo CLE SP – 279 $2
90 Connelly Early BOS SP – 200 -$3
93 Cade Povich BAL SP – 440 -$5
94 Jonah Tong NYM SP – 316 -$4
95 Braxton Ashcraft PIT SP – 296 -$1
102 Parker Messick CLE SP – 286 -$1
106 Andrew Painter PHI SP – -$11
107 Logan Henderson MIL SP – 301 $1
108 Luis Gil NYY SP – 361 -$5
110 Joey Wentz ATL SP – 728 -$7
112 Hurston Waldrep ATL SP – 258 -$7
115 Zebby Matthews MIN SP – 284 $4
116 Ryan Bergert KCR SP – 585 -$9
126 Jacob Latz TEX SP – 479 -$9
127 Luis Morales ATH SP – 407 -$10
130 Payton Tolle BOS SP – 337 -$4
142 Michael McGreevy STL SP – 473 -$1

Injury Returners

Pitchers coming back from partial or fully missed seasons.
Injury Returners
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
62 Kris Bubic KCR SP – 207 $5
65 Gerrit Cole NYY SP – 265 $5
75 Tyler Wells BAL SP – 379 -$6
77 Shane McClanahan TBR SP – 249 $12
83 Lucas Giolito FA SP – 381 -$9
86 Sean Manaea NYM SP – 293 $5
88 Seth Lugo KCR SP – 353 -$5
91 Grant Holmes ATL SP – 543 -$3
100 Joe Musgrove SDP SP – 253 $9
105 José Soriano LAA SP – 348 $4
111 Grayson Rodriguez LAA SP – 311 $5
113 Landen Roupp SFG SP – 414 -$3
114 Spencer Arrighetti HOU SP – 463 -$7
117 Sawyer Gipson-Long DET SP – 565 -$4
128 Reynaldo López ATL SP – 399 $2
139 Max Meyer MIA SP – 396 -$2
144 Justin Steele CHC SP – 375 $1
145 Bowden Francis TOR SP – 736 -$6
146 Jared Jones PIT SP – 443 $1

Rotator cuff ate up the second half of Kris Bubic’s breakout season. I’ll dive back in when we get information on how he’s looking for his comeback.

March 25 internal brace for Gerrit Cole, won’t be ready for Opening Day.

Solid 22 IP finish to season for Tyler Wells has him back on the radar.

Shane McClanahan missed the entire season after the original reports suggested his injury wasn’t that bad… that is why we add 1.5-2x to announced injury timelines (unless it’s George Kirby and your crush gets the best of you!).

It was a solid 145 IP for Lucas Giolito before an elbow injury ended his season in late-September. Now a free agent, I’ll revisit him after he signs as I suspect that will also bring some more clarity on his health.

Sean Manaea avoided elbow surgery but managed just 61 uneven innings after his 2024 breakout campaign. More later as news develops.

Back injury ended Seth Lugo’s year on 9/21.

Grant Holmes ended the season with a partially torn UCL.

Joe Musgrove had his TJ surgery in October 2024 giving him the chance at a pretty full season if he’s ready to go. I’ll still be careful about drafting him, but I do treat the extended rehabs different than standard 12-13 mos.

José Soriano ended on IL with a forearm contusion.

Grayson Rodriguez missed the entire 2025 season and now shifts to LA, more on him deeper in the offseason.

Knee injury ended Landen Roupp’s season early.

Spencer Arrighetti is expected to be ready for Opening Day, returning from an elbow injury that ended his season on August 30th.

Reynaldo López missed the entire 2025 season.

Late-Jun hip surgery ruined Max Meyer’s season.

April UCL revision surgery for Justin Steele; unlkely ready for OD.

Shoulder impingment ended Bowden Francis’s season in mid-June.

Jared Jones had May UCL surgery w/10-12 mo. timeline.

Lottery Tickets

An early ranking parking lot for guys while I decide where to slot them. As I dive deeper into their profiles, their fits will become more apparent.
Lottery Tickets
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
121 Johan Oviedo BOS SP – 432 -$4
125 Dean Kremer BAL SP – 410 -$5
129 Zack Littell FA SP – 441 -$4
131 Justin Verlander FA SP – 499 -$4
132 Nick Martinez FA SP – 567 -$7
133 Chad Patrick MIL SP – 350 -$3
134 Hunter Dobbins STL SP – 740 -$6
136 Cade Cavalli WAS SP – 348 $1
137 Jameson Taillon CHC SP – 327 -$4
147 Luis Severino ATH SP – 437 -$6
148 Aaron Civale FA SP – 662 -$6
150 Jacob Lopez ATH SP – 371 -$3

If Luis Severino stays in Sacramento, he’s half a starter and a road-only streamer is scary.

Seen Something Before

They’ve been good – really good in some cases – before but now we’re here wondering if they can get it back
Seen Something Before
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
101 Bailey Ober MIN SP – 293 $1
104 Ryan Weathers MIA SP – 319 $2
109 Cristian Javier HOU SP – 393 -$12
118 Reid Detmers LAA SP – 342 $3
120 Mitch Keller PIT SP – 354 -$1
123 Tyler Mahle FA SP – 405 -$4
124 Cody Ponce TOR SP – 327 $5
135 Brandon Pfaadt ARI SP – 372 $1
138 Dustin May STL SP – 519 -$1
140 Matthew Liberatore STL SP – 449 -$4
141 Tobias Myers MIL SP – 602 -$4
143 Taj Bradley MIN SP – 385 $0
149 Yusei Kikuchi LAA SP – 356 $5

Ryan Weathers did finish the season on the bump which I always like when betting on an injury-shortened season. He has wrestled injuries throughout career, though it might surprise you to learn he’s still just 26 years old. He debuted young so he’s been in consciousness for a long time but isn’t anywhere near old.

Yusei Kikuchi is a WHIP killer and HR machine… I just don’t trust him.

Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Tarik Skubal DET SP – 6 $43
2 Paul Skenes PIT SP – 10 $36
3 Garrett Crochet BOS SP – 10 $37
4 Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD SP – 23 $15
5 Logan Gilbert SEA SP – 35 $22
6 Hunter Greene CIN SP – 44 $15
7 Cristopher Sánchez PHI SP – 30 $26
8 Cole Ragans KCR SP – 50 $23
9 Max Fried NYY SP – 57 $19
10 Hunter Brown HOU SP – 33 $16
11 Bryan Woo SEA SP – 39 $22
12 Blake Snell LAD SP – 62 $15
13 George Kirby SEA SP – 65 $21
14 Shohei Ohtani LAD SP – 1 $13
15 Freddy Peralta MIL SP – 62 $12
16 Chris Sale ATL SP – 33 $27
17 Jacob deGrom TEX SP – 44 $26
18 Joe Ryan MIN SP – 64 $17
19 Spencer Schwellenbach ATL SP – 78 $14
20 Kyle Bradish BAL SP – 76 $11
21 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP – 109 $13
22 Nick Pivetta SDP SP – 86 $14
23 Eury Pérez MIA SP – 83 $8
24 Dylan Cease TOR SP – 70 $18
25 Jesús Luzardo PHI SP – 73 $18
26 Shane Bieber TOR SP – 135 $7
27 Framber Valdez FA SP – 90 $14
28 Zack Wheeler PHI SP – 146 $18
29 Brandon Woodruff MIL SP – 109 $13
30 Kevin Gausman TOR SP – 117 $7
31 Carlos Rodón NYY SP – 186 $7
32 Ryan Pepiot TBR SP – 135 $2
33 Logan Webb SFG SP – 56 $22
34 Spencer Strider ATL SP – 100 $12
35 Nick Lodolo CIN SP – 126 $5
36 Sandy Alcantara MIA SP – 161 $1
37 Bryce Miller SEA SP – 240 $0
38 Sonny Gray BOS SP – 109 $15
39 Emmet Sheehan LAD SP – 120 $6
40 Robbie Ray SFG SP – 153 $2
41 Pablo López MIN SP – 138 $13
42 Trevor Rogers BAL SP – 170 -$1
43 Nolan McLean NYM SP – 93 $6
44 Gavin Williams CLE SP – 140 $1
45 Drew Rasmussen TBR SP – 144 $7
46 Tatsuya Imai FA SP – -$4
47 Jacob Misiorowski MIL SP – 126 $2
48 Michael King SDP SP – 145 $11
49 Luis Castillo SEA SP – 158 $11
50 Cam Schlittler NYY SP – 122 $1
51 Nathan Eovaldi TEX SP – 149 $16
52 Tanner Bibee CLE SP – 177 $5
53 Edward Cabrera MIA SP – 190 $2
54 MacKenzie Gore WAS SP – 197 $12
55 Ranger Suárez FA SP – 176 $12
56 Shota Imanaga CHC SP – 172 $8
57 Matthew Boyd CHC SP – 229 $8
58 Ryne Nelson ARI SP – 265 -$3
59 Cade Horton CHC SP – 189 -$3
60 Casey Mize DET SP – 263 $3
61 Andrew Abbott CIN SP – 208 -$4
62 Kris Bubic KCR SP – 207 $5
63 Shane Baz BAL SP – 194 $0
64 Zac Gallen FA SP – 224 $2
65 Gerrit Cole NYY SP – 265 $5
66 Merrill Kelly ARI SP – 244 $3
67 Clay Holmes NYM SP – 349 $0
68 Trey Yesavage TOR SP – 140 $7
69 Reese Olson DET SP – 304 $1
70 Chase Burns CIN SP – 114 $9
71 Bubba Chandler PIT SP – 147 -$4
72 Roki Sasaki LAD SP – 222 -$2
73 Jack Flaherty DET SP – 216 $8
74 Quinn Priester MIL SP – 280 -$2
75 Tyler Wells BAL SP – 379 -$6
76 Aaron Nola PHI SP – 209 $10
77 Shane McClanahan TBR SP – 249 $12
78 Noah Cameron KCR SP – 258 -$3
79 Kodai Senga NYM SP – 304 $1
80 José Berríos TOR SP – 454 -$4
81 Troy Melton DET SP – 261 -$2
82 Jeffrey Springs ATH SP – 425 -$6
83 Lucas Giolito FA SP – 381 -$9
84 Jack Leiter TEX SP – 243 -$4
85 Ian Seymour TBR SP – 304 -$4
86 Sean Manaea NYM SP – 293 $5
87 Joey Cantillo CLE SP – 279 $2
88 Seth Lugo KCR SP – 353 -$5
89 Brayan Bello BOS SP – 340 -$7
90 Connelly Early BOS SP – 200 -$3
91 Grant Holmes ATL SP – 543 -$3
92 Shane Smith CHW SP – 269 -$4
93 Cade Povich BAL SP – 440 -$5
94 Jonah Tong NYM SP – 316 -$4
95 Braxton Ashcraft PIT SP – 296 -$1
96 Brady Singer CIN SP – 328 -$2
97 David Peterson NYM SP – 362 $7
98 Mike Burrows HOU SP – 353 $0
99 Will Warren NYY SP – 325 $1
100 Joe Musgrove SDP SP – 253 $9
101 Bailey Ober MIN SP – 293 $1
102 Parker Messick CLE SP – 286 -$1
103 Michael Wacha KCR SP – 370 -$3
104 Ryan Weathers MIA SP – 319 $2
105 José Soriano LAA SP – 348 $4
106 Andrew Painter PHI SP – -$11
107 Logan Henderson MIL SP – 301 $1
108 Luis Gil NYY SP – 361 -$5
109 Cristian Javier HOU SP – 393 -$12
110 Joey Wentz ATL SP – 728 -$7
111 Grayson Rodriguez LAA SP – 311 $5
112 Hurston Waldrep ATL SP – 258 -$7
113 Landen Roupp SFG SP – 414 -$3
114 Spencer Arrighetti HOU SP – 463 -$7
115 Zebby Matthews MIN SP – 284 $4
116 Ryan Bergert KCR SP – 585 -$9
117 Sawyer Gipson-Long DET SP – 565 -$4
118 Reid Detmers LAA SP – 342 $3
119 Chris Bassitt FA SP – 404 $1
120 Mitch Keller PIT SP – 354 -$1
121 Johan Oviedo BOS SP – 432 -$4
122 Max Scherzer FA SP – 520 $0
123 Tyler Mahle FA SP – 405 -$4
124 Cody Ponce TOR SP – 327 $5
125 Dean Kremer BAL SP – 410 -$5
126 Jacob Latz TEX SP – 479 -$9
127 Luis Morales ATH SP – 407 -$10
128 Reynaldo López ATL SP – 399 $2
129 Zack Littell FA SP – 441 -$4
130 Payton Tolle BOS SP – 337 -$4
131 Justin Verlander FA SP – 499 -$4
132 Nick Martinez FA SP – 567 -$7
133 Chad Patrick MIL SP – 350 -$3
134 Hunter Dobbins STL SP – 740 -$6
135 Brandon Pfaadt ARI SP – 372 $1
136 Cade Cavalli WAS SP – 348 $1
137 Jameson Taillon CHC SP – 327 -$4
138 Dustin May STL SP – 519 -$1
139 Max Meyer MIA SP – 396 -$2
140 Matthew Liberatore STL SP – 449 -$4
141 Tobias Myers MIL SP – 602 -$4
142 Michael McGreevy STL SP – 473 -$1
143 Taj Bradley MIN SP – 385 $0
144 Justin Steele CHC SP – 375 $1
145 Bowden Francis TOR SP – 736 -$6
146 Jared Jones PIT SP – 443 $1
147 Luis Severino ATH SP – 437 -$6
148 Aaron Civale FA SP – 662 -$6
149 Yusei Kikuchi LAA SP – 356 $5
150 Jacob Lopez ATH SP – 371 -$3

Hot Stove Happenings – November 22nd, 2025

by
November 22, 2025
Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

In between putting together pitching profiles for our forthcoming rankings, I’m going to do some quick-hitter roundups of recent moves and their fantasy impact as I see it. This will be focused more on mid-tier moves with fantasy relevance.

Notable Non-Tendies

Let’s start with Friday’s non-tenders, guys who weren’t offered a contract and now become free agents instead of going on waivers. Plenty of these will likely land back with their club on a different deal, but others will remain FAs and find new homes. Here are some who stood out to me:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1456 – High Volume Busts + Yordan

by
November 14, 2025

11/14/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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HIGH VOLUME BUST + ALVAREZ

9 players (min. 350 PA; avg. 470) + Alvarez

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Reviewing 2024’s Biggest IP Risers A Year Later

by
November 3, 2025
Lexi Thompson-Imagn Images

The ever-shrinking share of innings going to starting pitchers in today’s game has us focusing on volume more than ever. “Bankable” these days is someone with back-to-back 150+ IP seasons, a total that doesn’t even qualify for the ERA title (requires at least 162). A blind spot in my analysis has been that I don’t follow up the year after their surge. I’ll read or even create content in the spring of a given year highlighting the big IP gainers from the previous year just so people are knowledgeable about the big spikes, but I don’t circle back to see what those guys did for an encore.

We will look at the biggest IP gainers from 2023 to 2024 and see how their 2025 fared. There were 21 pitchers who added at least 75 innings in 2024 and they’ll serve as our focus group here broken down into a few clusters. Later in the offseason, I’ll take a closer look at the 2025 IP gainers with some thoughts on their 2026 outlook.

100+ IP HEROES

100+ Inning Heroes
Name Team 2025 IP 2024 IP 2023 IP 23-24 Inn. Chg. 23-24 FIP Chg. 24-25 Inn. Chg. 24-25 FIP Chg.
Frankie Montas NYM 39 151 1 149 0.70 -112 0.63
Garrett Crochet BOS 205 146 13 133 -3.02 59 0.20
Simeon W.Richardson MIN 111 134 5 129 -1.71 -22 0.40
Ryan Feltner COL 30 162 43 119 -0.02 -132 0.23
Ronel Blanco HOU 48 167 52 115 -1.84 -119 0.13
Tarik Skubal DET 195 192 80 112 0.50 3 -0.05
Nestor Cortes 3TMS 34 174 63 111 -0.65 -140 4.45
Carlos Rodón NYY 195 175 64 111 -1.40 20 -0.61
Trevor Rogers BAL 110 124 18 106 0.43 -15 -1.70

Nine pitchers added at least 100 innings in 2024, averaging just 38 innings per season in 2023 before surging to 158 per in 2024. Meanwhile, the group’s average FIP dropped as well, down 78 points to 3.89.

Frankie Montas essentially missed all of 2023 with just 1.3 IP so virtually all of his 2024 was surplus. Unfortunately, the results weren’t anywhere near his 2021-22 output (3.55 FIP). An early-spring lat injury kept anyone from investing so his flop season with the Mets (39 IP of 6.28 ERA and TJ surgery) wasn’t really felt on the fantasy landscape.

Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and Carlos Rodón are the major outliers on the list, all adding volume to their 2025 total with elite production. Crochet’s FIP went up, but only 20 pts to 2.89 in 205.3 IP, most in the AL. Skubal, of course, is headed toward a second straight Cy Young win. Rodón did have a 1.40 improvement on his FIP in 2024 but that only got him to 4.39, though 16 Ws and 195s Ks helped him still finish SP42. He was back to stud Rodón this year with an SP10 finish.

Simeon Woods Richardson couldn’t maintain his 2024 volume, but he did still lower his ERA and WHIP despite the 40-point jump in FIP. He delivered occasional streamer value en route to a 4.04 ERA/1.28 WHIP in 111 IP.

Ronel Blanco was felled by TJ (internal brace version) which is a bummer because I would’ve liked to see how he followed up his breakout season. His skills remained intact with a 14% K-BB and he was still extremely difficult to square up with a .207 AVG against. Now he’ll miss most of 2026 and have to climb back up the hill at age-33 in 2027.

Nestor Cortes had a disastrous Opening Day in Yankee Stadium (8 ER), was traded to San Diego during a 4-month injury absence and looked decent again in his August return before a torn biceps injury cut him down and will now keep him out for half of 2026. He is completely off the fantasy radar at this point.

Trevor Rogers is the most unique case on the board. He ramped back up to 153 innings if you count his MiLB work but struggled so much that he became an fantasy afterthought. He was also going to miss upwards of two months to start the 2025 season leaving no reason to draft him anywhere outside of maaaaybe a last 2-3 round Hail Mary in Draft Champions. Instead, he became arguably the fantasy pickup of the season (at least pitcher pickup; Nick Kurtz is really tough to beat for the overall best pickup). He had an elite season debut on the backend of a doubleheader against Boston in late-May but was sent back down for over three more weeks before settling in for the stretch run. Now he’s the de facto ace of the O’s and positioned to be a mid-rotation fantasy arm in 2026. The return of his velocity (+1.2 to 93.1 mph) and razor-sharp skills (18% K-BB) have me ready to buy back in at the draft table.

Looking at 2025, the group’s average output dropped to 107 IP but the collective FIP improved as only Cortes and Montas were bad — both for fewer than 40 innings, though, so not a lot of damage came from them.

85-99 IP SURGES

85-99 IP Surges
Name Team 2025 IP 2024 IP 2023 IP 23-24 Inn. Chg. 23-24 FIP Chg. 24-25 Inn. Chg. 24-25 FIP Chg.
Max Fried NYY 195 174 78 97 0.19 21 -0.26
Jose Quintana MIL 132 170 76 95 1.04 -39 0.25
Luis Severino ATH 163 182 89 93 -1.93 -19 -0.10
Cole Ragans KCR 62 186 96 90 -0.20 -125 -0.49
Kyle Harrison SFG/BOS 36 124 35 90 -1.20 -89 -0.61
Ryan Pepiot TBR 168 130 42 88 -0.23 38 0.41
Brandon Pfaadt ARI 177 182 96 86 -1.58 -5 0.61

The seven pitchers featured here came with a lot of hype for 2025 thanks to a couple fantasy aces and several young arms on the rise. Their 164 IP average actually tops the first group, but they are coming from higher 2023 totals so only an average of +91 IP. They also clipped the first group in 2024 FIP with a 3.89 mark.

Max Fried was either your 2/3 if you were pitching-forward or the ace for a team waiting on starters and he delivered with an SP11 finish. His 195 innings mitigate the strikeout rate issues as his 189 total tied for 14th-most. The 19 Ws play a big role in that finish as well, but it’s not like his 2.86 ERA/1.10 WHIP combo is anything shy of fantastic meaning even if win volatility gets the best of him next year, there is still a firm skills floor here. He also now has at least 165 IP in 4 of the last five seasons. I’m still getting used to that being workhorse adjacent (18th in IP since 2021), but that’s where we are today.

Cole Ragans laid such strong groundwork in 12 starts with the Royals in 2023 that his breakout 2024 wasn’t a huge shock. In fact, paired together he had 258 IP of a 3.00 ERA/1.12 WHIP and ascended into a top 50 overall ADP for 2015. He showed flashes of greatness, including a 3-start, 31-strikeout run right out of the gate, but he sputtered in May and injuries limited his ability to ever recover leaving him with a 4.67 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 62 IP. He did finish strong in three abbreviated September starts (2.77 ERA/0.77 WHIP/22 Ks in 13 IP) and posted 38% K rate on the year, both of which have buying back in even at a continued high price. Nothing about his season has me less confident in his ability. He might not stay healthy in 2026, either, but I’ll bet on the talent.

Ryan Pepiot and Brandon Pfaadt were both big breakout picks with similar ADPs and a lot of crossover amongst their ardent supporters. Both were building on sharp small samples from the year before and played on teams capable of supporting a quality young arm (at least we thought so coming into the season, both clubs wound up sub-.500 and short of expectations). Results aside, it is encouraging that both managed big IP totals again this year. Pepiot added 38 IP up to a career-high 168 while Pfaadt’s 5 IP dip was more because of performance as he actually managed 1 more start than 2024 with 33 (Logan Webb stood alone with 34).

The “results aside” caveat was really just for Pfaadt as his excellent 5% BB rate (3rd in MLB) was essentially wasted by the 1.3 HR9 and .316 BABIP. There’s a case he’s just in the zone too much as neither problem is new (career 1.4, .315). Pepiot didn’t reach the lofty heights I had for him in my Bold Predictions, but he gave you what you paid for: SP46 ADP, SP45 season finish.

I’ve been using FIP as the easy catchall here but it does obscure the success of someone like Jose Quintana who posted a 3.96 ERA, nearly a run lower than his 4.81 FIP. And he was likely curated to an even better ERA by many of his fantasy managers as a streamer. He ended the season with a 7.40 ERA in his final four starts, but most managers likely avoided the bulk if not all of those starts given the matchups (ARI, PHI, TEX, STL). In short, a quality streamer who even found shallow league viability early on as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA through his first 10 starts.

The market was keen to what Sacramento’s park could do to Luis Severino after his rebirth with the Mets in 2024. His early-300s ADP was even too high for his SP161 finish, but his buyers went in eyes wide open to the potential trouble at that stadium. Sometimes playing a home/road split with a pitcher is dangerous, but Sevvy proved incredibly bankable depending on venue. He was completely unusable in Sacramento with a 6.01 ERA/1.53 WHIP and wasn’t shy about how he felt pitching there. Meanwhile, he was a ratios stud on the road with a 3.02 ERA/1.07 WHIP. If he is traded out and lands in the right spot, he could be a worthy bounce back bet for next season, but if he remains with Sacramento then he’ll stay a venue-focused streamer which is a scary player class to bet on.

Kyle Harrison had a whirlwind first half with the Giants. He started in the minors and then spent time in the bullpen after a promotion back to SF, capped off by a brief stint in the Giants rotation before his inclusion in the huge Rafael Devers trade that put him on the Red Sox. They sent him back to the minors until September when they gave him a relief appearance and two starts. He was a bit different with the Red Sox, but not really in obvious standout ways. His velo was down nearly 2 mph to 93.4 but he threw a lot fewer fastballs (-13 pts to 52% usage), funneling most of that into his 87 mph cutter (11% usage) while also amplifying his curve usage 7 pts to 32%. For more on his changes with Boston, check out this David Laurila piece. He did enough to get back on my radar. A former big time prospect who will be just 24 years old in an organization that has done some intriguing things with starting pitchers is a winning formula for a quality late-round pick.

75-84 IP JUMPS

75-84 IP Jumps
Name Team 2025 IP 2024 IP 2023 IP 23-24 Inn. Chg. 23-24 FIP Chg. 24-25 Inn. Chg. 24-25 FIP Chg.
Chris Paddack MIN/DET 158 88 5 83 0.93 70 0.84
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 202 182 99 82 -0.99 20 -0.44
Nick Lodolo CIN 157 115 34 81 -1.84 41 -0.14
Carson Fulmer LAA 29 87 10 77 -0.35 -57 0.20
Chris Sale ATL 126 178 103 75 -1.71 -52 0.59

Our final group features three studs (Sánchez, Lodolo, Sale) and two duds (Paddack, Fulmer). It was the only group who saw their 2025 output go up as the gains of Paddack, Sánchez, and Lodolo cancelled out the 50+ inning dips of Sale and Fulmer. Paddack keeps them from improving their FIP as a whole, but no one felt bad about investing in the three studs even with Sale dropping his IP count so much.

Cristopher Sánchez showed that 2024 was just the beginning for him, pitching quite a bit better in 2025 with a 2.50 ERA/1.06 WHIP combo in a career-high 202 innings, up 20 from his 2024 total. His SP6 finish might perfectly portend his 2026 ADP. He could even secure the 5-spot after Skubal, Yamamoto, Skenes, and Crochet.

At age-36 and litany of injuries on his ledger, it was hard to expect another 170+ innings from Chris Sale but I was confident that the innings we did get would be good. And that’s how it all played out: he pitched 126 innings with a sparkling 2.58 ERA/1.07 WHIP combo with a near-identical 26% K-BB rate (-0.4 from 2024). Where do we go from here, though? He can be a top 25-30 SP with even just 100 innings if they’re good enough, but what price are you willing to pay for the 37-year-old southpaw? I know he’s not coming off a Cy Young win again, but I’m not sure he drops all that far off his 36 ADP from 2025.

Nick Lodolo missed most of August and some of September, but otherwise had a great season. He took the compelling skills we saw in 2024 and turned ‘em into results in 2025. Like teammate Hunter Greene, his HR rate jumped back up in 2025 but his control improvements mitigated any damage from the added homers. He will likely be a big fantasy target for his believers next season and even drum up some longshot Cy Young chatter.

Chris Paddack was a passable backend innings eater for the Twins but a gigantic surge in homers (+1.3 to 2.7 HR9) tanked his time with the Tigers and snuffed out the last remnants of fantasy value that might’ve been lurking.

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The ultimate takeaway here is that I don’t think an innings surge alone should change how you feel about a pitcher. You should probably expect fewer innings (-31 on average among the 21 pitchers studied here), but outside of Cortes’s 35 IP meltdown the performance of the collective group didn’t really fall off. There will be some tricky cases to investigate such Matthew Boyd and Drew Rasmussen and again, I’ll take a deeper look at the 2025 gainers later into the offseason.


Paul Sporer’s 2025 Bold Predictions REVIEW

by
October 27, 2025
Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

October… the quiet time for fantasy baseball. Not for everybody, of course… I see y’all already running Draft Champions and Draft 50s over at the NFBC. I’ll be there next month. For the majority of the community, it’s review time and we here at Fangraphs have been running through our Bold Predictions to see how they went. BPs are always fun because they aren’t meant to be picks that have a super high likelihood of coming true, or else they wouldn’t be all that bold. It’s about to exploring the what could feasibly happen if things really line up but it’s far from the most likely outcome.

So even landing a few feels good when checking the over the slate in the October, let’s see how I did:

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Jeez, if you had told me that Suzuki was going to put up 32 HR/103 RBI back in March, I would’ve said this one is a lock. And yet, it’s not only a loss, but a resounding one. He was the 15th OF last year with a 21 HR/73 RBI/74 R/16 SB/.283 AVG season, but fell to 25th because his AVG dropped nearly 40 points to .245 while the SB total tumbled to just 5. It wasn’t a bad season for him, but we’re 0-for-1: .000

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 27-28th, 2025

by
September 27, 2025
David Richard-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments.

One more weekend, here we go!!!!

I wasn’t able to make any changes on Saturday, but updating that Chris Sale will be the primary behind Morton for ATL which could be huge as he could 3-4 IP and still snag a Win.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 26th, 2025

by
September 26, 2025
Lexi Thompson-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 25th, 2025

by
September 25, 2025
Shota Imanago throws a pitch from the mound, Spring Training 2025
Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments!

Ober in for Ryan, obviously not nearly as interested and consider him really just a Hail Mary option in a decent matchup

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 24th, 2025 SEASON FINALE!

by
September 24, 2025

Thanks for coming out and thanks for a great year of chats! Off for a few weeks to decompress after the season, but we’ll be back at it late-Oct/early-Nov for the diehards! Go Tigers, despite how bleak it feels right now!

(Apologies for the late start, was at PT for a neck injury!)

1:34

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!!
1:34

bb: What are we doing with Adley next year?
1:43

Paul Sporer: This is definitely one of those where the price will be the key indicator. He was the 11th catcher off the board in the Meatball draft (11 rounds of a 15-team 5×5 roto draft that WILL be played out) with only Kirk and Basallo going behind him in those 11 rounds. I don’t hate that price, but I’m not chasing him down next year. This is now 1000 PA of league average work and while that’s not terrible, the catcher pool is getting deeper so I might just want other Cs in his price range or a bit ahead as I’m not against paying up for catchers.

He did finish 6th on the Player Rater last yr with a solid 19 HR/79 RBI/.250 AVG yr  which is around what Yainer Diaz has done this year (19/68/.256) and he’s 12th on this year’s PR so that’s a little microcosm of how the field have improved while Adley’s regressed even further. His name will keep him from going super cheaply, too, as every room will have at least one believer
1:43

Schilling & Pence: Why was every sit/start decision I made in my home league this year wrong?
1:47

Paul Sporer: I’ve certainly gone through funks like that where every stream I line up – hitting and pitching – just comes in with a 10th percentile outcome for seemingly 6 weeks. In the end, it’s usually not that we’re making EVERY wrong move, but rather that some key ones are REALLY sticking w/us and stacking up in our head as a problem.

Now, sometimes there is a process issue worth investigating. If you’re finding similarities across the streaming misses, it could be that the process needs tightening. Are you chasing hot hands and always catching the rotten end? Are you missing splits on particular pitchers that are making seemingly good-looking streams actually more dangerous? Etc… It’s probablyyyy just a tough year, but don’t be afraid to question your processes and see if you’ve fallen behind your competition
1:48

Paul Sporer: The queue is expectedly light because a) I was late and b) it’s the last week of the season. My apologies on the former, I was doing physical therapy for a neck injury, but the latter I cannot help and totally understand. I will likely take a couple week break from chats in October before we get back into the review grind. I’ll hang around a bit longer to see if we get a few more Qs!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 24th, 2025

by
September 24, 2025
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning! (Fixed that date error)

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