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Fell asleep on the couch after that excellent Tigers game, so I’ll get some comments up in the morning!!

• Gausman might not be fully out of his funk (7.46 ERA in L5) but after 13 ER in the first two, he has 2 QS in his L3. It hasn’t been a great season, but I can’t see sitting him in many spots.
• Framber has struggled with start-to-start consistency as evidenced by his ER counts over his L12: 7-2-4-1-4-1-4-0-1-4-5-1. So while he’s fallen short of expectations with his composite ratios, it’s hard to get away from start him. I could maybe see a skip in 10s here if you have a deep rotation, but 12s and deeper should keep him locked in.
• ReyLo’s back! One of my favorites over the years, he’s fully stretched out with 5 IP in each of his L3 outings and now gets the worst offense in the league.
• If you’re a big Thornton backer, I can see starting him in some 10s, too. I played it cautiously with MIL but he’s been impressive in his spot starts and has the skills to be a part of this rotation. We’ll see if Clay Holmes kicks him out upon return but then the deadline should clear a spot for him assuming they don’t win every game between now and August 3rd and miraculously get back into the mix.
• Sproat has a looked a lot more like the breakout pick many thought he could be coming into the season, posting a 3.55 ERA/1.12 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L7 after a 6.24 ERA through May. I don’t blame anyone who cut him after back-to-back months of mid-6.00s and the walks that plagued him early aren’t fully handled with a 9% BB during this run.
• Warren, Imai, and Schultz are scary streamers. They have the upside to pop off, but we’ve seen the downside, especially lately with all 3 toting an ERA north of 5.00 in the last month of work. Warren and Schultz also get tough matchups and while Imai’s MIA matchup isn’t super difficult, they have been known to go off at times, too.
• It was a begrudging 1-x for Perkins and probably should be 0, but I keep getting drawn in by the quality core skills. Even in this nightmare run of his L7 with an 8.32 ERA/1.68 WHIP, he still has a 17% K-BB (f0r context, that’s a Top 30 mark among qualified SPs). While Sacramento is to blame for some of the trouble, he has a 6.08 ERA on the road, too, but with ARI ranking 28th in wOBA and Corbin Carroll possibly out of the lineup again as he’s nursing an elbow issue that kept him out Monday. I want to love Perk, but he has punished fantasy mangers who’ve believed in him so far.
• MIN yoinked Anderson from BOS and will be in a Follower position today which could put him in line for a W. He throws strikes and is stretched out enough to go 4-5 IP.

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Justin and I weren’t able to record our normal 2-start breakdown episode on Friday so I’ll do a ranking list of ’em tomorrow morning (well, later this morning as it’s just clicking past midnight as I type this) along with some commentary notes on today’s board.

3-x

• Flaherty is dialed in right now with a 1.08 ERA/0.78 WHIP/22% K-BB in the L30 days, though that’s only 3 starts because of the break, so if we dial back to May 28th, he has 7 starts of 2.56 ERA/1.08 WHIP with that same 22% K-BB.
• Martinez is a classic “He can’t keep getting away with it” guy with sparkling ratios all year despite downright paltry skills underneath (10% K-BB). I leaned away from him a few times in what should’ve been tough starts but he just keeps putting up gems. Since DET ripped him for 6 ER (his only start over 3 ER), he has rebounded with a 3.38 ERA in 6 starts.

2-x

• Took an “x” off Abbott and Bibee upon further review. Abbott has been maddening this year and it seems any time I give him some credit and decide to get on board, he starts pitch to his metrics and then when I’m off him, he’s dealing. He’s a WHIP killer even in the best of times so if you’re protecting that category, he is an easier skip. Bibee’s been inconsistent as well, but has rebounded from each of his 3 Duds with Quality Starts. He had been rolling for 6 starts before the CHW trounced him for 6 ER but he worked around 4 BB at MIA to drop a 6.7 IP/1 ER gem against ’em. I dropped him from 3 to 2 in deference to MIN’s AL-leading run total of 479, ranked 8th overall (further showing the NL/AL divide this year).
• Maybe 2-x is too hot for Peralta, I just don’t know what to do with him. He hasn’t made it 5 IP in any of his L3 and bludgeons your WHIP nearly every time out.
• Back in April-May, I was so bummed I didn’t have a load of Soriano shares this year after being a big fan of his the last three seasons but it turns out he was just running hot and Mike Maddux had no in fact fixed him. After an 0.84 ERA through his first 7 starts, he’s at 5.14 in his L13, pushing his season numbers almost all the way back to career numbers of 3.79 ERA/1.31 WHIP (season total: 3.49/1.29). He’s back to a Team Streamer at best and probably just a Standard Streamer in shallower formats especially with such a low Win probability.

0-1 x 

• Baz also lost an “x” overnight as I just don’t think we have to take him into Fenway. The Red Sox are the hottest team going right now and that 27th ranked season wOBA is deceiving and obscures the fact that they’re 8th in the L30 days. I’ve long had my concerns with Baz and I certainly haven’t seen anything this year to give much more confidence than normal.
• PIT’s strength is generally vR, but they’re surging vL sitting 12th on the year and 3rd in the L30 days. Weathers has been frustratingly inconsistent this year, including a 5.61 ERA/1.42 WHIP in his L8 despite a strong 19% K-BB. His HR issues remain, though in fairness he is HR-free in is L4. I wanted nothing to do with him at WAS in his last start before the break and so of course he dropped a gem: 5.3 IP/1 ER/6 Ks/0 BB. He heads to PHI on the weekend so it’s not the most appealing 2-step even in weekly lineup formats and yet I have a hard time cutting him in anything but the most shallow leagues with that excellent 20% K-BB.
• McDonald is in for SFG, not Mahle, but still just 1-x.
• Blanco is returning from TJ and jumps right into the fire with a 2-step. He reached 68 pitches in his last start so we could see 4-5 IP right away. Let’s keep expectations in check for a TJ returner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he played himself into a useful Team Streamer down the stretch.

2-Start Ranking

• Messick, not Cecconi. Not at my desktop to remake the board right now, but consider him 9th behind Ashcraft. Easy auto-start!

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And we’re back!! As much as I adore this game, it was nice to take a few days off. I’m at my sister’s watching their Dalmatian pup (almost 2 yrs old) so I’ve been spending a lot of time with him & Charlotte! I’ll be working on my SP rankings update over the weekend to have it out for next week. No NYM-PHI today since they played yesterday, but we still have 15 games thanks to a TBR-BOS doubleheader.

• Henderson was solid in his return from the IL and could be poised for a huge 2H if he can stay healthy.
• After just 4 Ks in 12.7 IP during his first two starts of the year, Melton has at least 5 in each of his L6 (27% K). Future ace.
• Since the 8 ER bomb in TOR that capped off a nightmare May (7.39 ERA in 5 starts), Alcantara has a 3.10 ERA/1.09 WHIP/16% K-BB in his L8 and that includes a Dud at COL you might’ve reasonably gotten away from (it was that terrifying 2-step at COL and at ATH… of course, if you did sit him that week, you also missed his absolute gem at ATH: 8 IP/1 ER/8 K). While my confidence isn’t as high as when he was Peak Sandy, he’s back to a set-it-and-forget-it status for me.
• Walks are the issue for Roupp in his bad starts but he’s so good when dialed in. His Game Scores show his volatility: 13-61-43-56-57-22-75 in his L7.
• Gav Williams and Cole get brutal matchups out of the break, but I still don’t see myself sitting them. Just less appealing for daily style games where you’re only focused on today.
• Back-to-back Duds and 3 in his L4 have pushed Detmers ERA from 3.68 to 4.39 with 11 BB and 5 HRs being behind the struggles. He was coming off an immaculate 5-start run of 1.36 ERA/0.55 WHIP/30% K-BB before that, so classic guardrail-to-guardrail Detmers. I can see a shallow league skip if you’re nervous but I generally just ride the waves with him in medium & deeper formats.
• Bennett is blazing hot of late with just 5 ER allowed in his L5, keeping the bases nearly spotless with a .202 BABIP and just 3 BB in 32.3 IP. Of course he’s not this good but I can’t see taking him out of the lineup right now. I added the 3rd X to him, Detmers, and Jones after the post went live upon further review.
• Jones capped off the 1H with an excellent start v. ATL that has many excited for his 2H, but it was only his 2nd time reaching 5 IP and I don’t have any reason to believe the standard TJ return volatility will go away. I’m rooting for him as I really became a big fan in his breakout 2024, but I’m eyeing 2027 for him to return to set-it-and-forget-it status. For now, he very much remains a Team Streamer at best.

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7/14/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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TWO TRUTHS & A LIE

Two 2H Breakouts (Outside Top 100 now, will be Top 50 in 2H

• Justin – Colt Keith, Logan Webb
• Joe – Landen Roupp, Heriberto Hernández
• Paul – Steven Kwan (Manny Machado, too), Troy Melton

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2-x

• Henderson is coming off the IL (back) so I hedged and just went 2-x. He’s a 3-x pitcher when he’s fully healthy, but as I always mention, everyone has their own strategies about guys off the IL.

0-1 x

• Ober is also off the IL (elbow). He’d been pitching pretty well except for the start right before the injury so I’m willing to give him some leeway there, especially since it was at PIT – one of the scariest spots for righties this year.
• Feltner got moved off yesterday’s which is great since he avoided the Dodgers and now gets a more palatable matchup at SFG.
• Keeping the IL return train going, Junk is returning (shin) from over a month off. His May really shows you the kind of volatility you’re getting into with him: 1, 4, 7, 8, 1 ER in his 5 starts. Probably want to see one here, but SEA is sitting 24th vR over the last two weeks, well off their season mark, so maybe it’s a soft-ish landing.
• Hey, it only took like 70 bad starts in a row for me to stop recommending Perkins! I still think he’s an interesting talent, but he’s completely unstartable at home and very rarely startable on the road. He’s going to cook my Tigers because I’m talking this mess, but I’m not starting him anywhere.

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Thanks for coming out! Off next week for the AS break, back July 22nd!

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3-x

• Sugar Shane gets a muted Yankees team as they sit 27th vL over the last month and dead-last the last two weeks. He had a bumpy June but got the ball rolling on a strong July with 6 scoreless at KCR last time out.
• I had some interest in most of the guys coming back from over from NPB/KBO this year but in no world did I think Griffin would emerge into an all-formats must start like this. Sparkling ratios, a strong 18% K-BB (Top 30), and a remarkably supportive offense helping him to 9 Ws so far.
• Kirby & Woo swapped days so it’s Kirby today despite him being on yesterday’s board, too.
• King was in a bit of a “prove it” stage for me, falling down my board after a 6.41 ERA and poor skills during a 5-start run. He’s working his way back up with 2 gems in his L3, including back-to-back starts against the Dodgers (1 good, 1 bad). The next step is hopefully an uptick in Ks. He’s down to a career-low 21% K rate and hasn’t fanned more than 5 since May 18th.
• Bennett is in a groove, allowing fewer than 3 R in each of his L4 and going at least 6 IP in the L3. CHW is a volatile offense because of their swing-and-miss so while they are 10th in wOBA on the year, they’re just 27th in the L14 days.
• We (the royal “we”, as in the larger baseball community) need to stop anointing Roki every time he strings together some good starts. Appreciate them, note the improvements when they show up, but don’t forget this is a 24-year old still just 23 starts into his MLB career. HRs remain at the core of his problems with a 2.0 mark, including 3 last time out. I still can’t pass up a Rockie Road (shouts to Nick Pollack! 🫡) outing despite the recent struggles (7.13 ERA/1.50 WHIP in L30).

2-x

• Two mega-Duds (6, 9 ER) level set Martin’s ERA back into the 3.00s, but he responded well both times. Six shutout following the 6 ER Dud and B2B gems after the 9 ER collapse at NYY. A 5 BB outing at CLE his last time out continues a concerning control trend over his L6 with an 11% BB after a 5% in his first 11. BOS is better of late with 5.3 R/G in the last 13, but that isn’t enough to completely fade Martin.
• Kremer has 3 excellent starts on the year and was even sharp in 4 rehab starts returning from injury but I don’t want to overrate a tiny sample and blindly use him against a CHC team that can smoke anyone.
• I might be closer to 1-1.5 x on Cecconi given how hot this MIN offense is right now. They’re behind only the Rockies vR with a .382 wOBA vR in the L30 days. Cecconi did have great 2.66 ERA in 10 starts from May 7-June 27 but just a 12% K-BB with it suggests it was more of a hot run than a skill improvement. He also had a Dud last time out, his 4th of the year, so when he’s off, he’s way off.

0-1 x

• Springs is another heavy home/road split Athletic but he’s not nearly as good as Ginn on the road when I recommended him (Ginn was OK but left after 4 IP, 61 pitches w/illness) so this is a tentative play, especially with DET playing a lot better ball of late.
• Arrighetti is such a classic risk-reward with his volatile skills yielding a wiiide range of outcomes and we’ve seen a microcosm of that in his last 2: 3 IP/8 ER and 6 IP/1 ER. Feeling lucky?
• I rave about Feltner 2-3x a month and how much I wish he was on any other team but COL. He’s riding 3 straight QS, only one on the road. In fact, he’s the rare Rockies pitcher who has been a good bit worse on the road: 4.14/1.11 at home | 4.58/1.47 on road. Obviously, it’s never fun to face LAD but he’s catching them at about the best time you can as they’re just 16th in wOBA over the last 2 weeks.
• Downshifted Jones to 0-x after being 2 on the initial post. He’s reach 5 IP in just 1 start, I just don’t see the upside starting him right now. If he was at least going 5 IP regularly, we could chase a Win since PIT is good, but he’s not so we can’t.

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• I still don’t think Skenes’s struggles are actionable as his last start was the first truly awful one since Opening Day.
• Tolle/Seymour are getting a muted version of their opponent’s offense today with CHW sitting 22nd in wOBA the L14 days and NYY down to 27th in the same timeframe.
• Lugo’s old team is the perfect chance for him to get back on track after a 5.31 ERA/1.48 WHIP in the L30 days.
• Abbott-Cantillo-Boyd all get great matchups which could make them usable in 10s depending on your options. I still don’t really trust Abbott but PHI’s offense remains stagnant despite their overall success.
• Warren/Soriano were amazing to start the season but have both hit the skids as they hit the road today. Both have 5.00+ ERAs and near-1.70 WHIPs over the L30 and yet I’m down to start either in a lot of spots. They were never quite as good as their heights from April/May, but they’re also not this bad, either.
• Ginn should probably be closer to the top of the 2-x’s given his excellent road record: 2.31 ERA/.88 WHIP in 47 road IP. DET has been hitting better of late (14th wOBA L14) but not enough to run from this, especially since we only really get to start Ginn on the road.

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• Roupp hasn’t been great of late (5.40 ERA/1.52 WHIP/13% K-BB in L30 days) which is why I went 2-x, but I can see a 10-team start, especially in light of TOR sitting 28th in wOBA in the last 2 wks.
• Jax, meanwhile, is rolling and catches an NYY team that sits dead last in the last two weeks and 26th for the month so I can see some 10-team starts for him, too. I definitely would start both Roupp and Jax in 10-team weekly lineups formats to get the 2-step.
• I’m kinda back on the ReyLo train. I’m a long-time fan so it’s not that surprising but I’m definitely surprised to have him slotted above Peralta, his opponent on Monday.
• Peralta catches a sputtering ATL offense but will it even matter? He’s been brutal with an 8.49 ERA/1.71 WHIP/9% K-BB in the L30. And yes, there is a 10-bomb in there but even removing that only takes him down to 5.22 in that time. Despite the turmoil, I still can’t see myself benching for a 2-step in medium-to-deep formats. He hasn’t been this bad all year so I think we just have to slog through this in a lot of situations.
• Lauer gets COL off a Coors homestand and has the Dodgers offense and pen at his back.
• The problem with starting Buehler (other than his statistics) is that SDP offers no offensive support so he has to be perfect v. ARI and hope they scratch a few against Pfaadt (they should because he’s very gettable, but can’t bank on it).
• I remain stunned how little PHI is moving the needle on their wOBA rankings even as they continue to pile up wins. Their ranking does not convince me to spin Cameron in any format.

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