• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I had planned on an SP rankings update this week but as I thought about it more, I’m not sure it’s worth pouring hours into an update that is going to be so fraught with uncertainty due to innings limits & injuries, especially when a 1-to-whatever ranking isn’t going to be terribly useful in the final three weeks when everything is context-based at this point in the season. Instead, I’ll start putting energy into a 2027 list and get the first edition of that up earlier than normal (likely sometime in October). For now, I’m going to stay focused on the SP chart and being available to y’all in the comments to help with your very specific situations.

FYI – No chat from me today. I have a doc appointment, but I’ll gladly answer questions on this post (or tomorrow’s SP chart, of course)!

• I cited CLE’s unappealing offense as a reason to run Brandon Young so of course they dropped 6 ER on him, but I’m still attacking this offense with anything close to competent starts. I trust Baz more than Young, so let’s run it back.
• Zebby’s HR rate always leaves him susceptible, but he gets a DET team that’s dead-last in wOBA v. righties in the L30 days so I like him to bounce back from his 5 IP/4 ER/3 HR outing last time out.
• Gausman gets MIL for the 2nd straight start and for years I’ve been citing an older study that said the first start had no major correlation on the second regardless of how it went and as such you can just make your decision based on the pitcher without letting that 1st start influence you too much. But I have an update thanks to my favorite team, the Tigers! They showed a graphic that shows SPs falling off substantially in the aggregate during that 2nd start this season. Obviously, it’s not 100%, but if you’re protecting ratios, I can see skipping Gausman in some spots. I’ve attached the graphic below.
• ReyLo is coming off the IL, so I downgraded him to just 1-x. Y’all know I love him, but that doesn’t mean we have to get crazy and start him in a buncha spots v. TBR.
• I know Kade Anderson is the hot new flavor of the month, but he’s been “meh” in his first three starts and TEX slams lefties, so let’s be careful here.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Sorry, we have Yoshi instead of Skubal… I fixed it!

• I’m not sure Young’s skills match his mid-3.00s ERA, but he’s been consistently solid across 24 starts, having allowed 4 or fewer ER in all of ’em and CLE is always a nice matchup.
• Painter has been excellent since his recall: 3.14 ERA/0.90 WHIP/16% K-BB with just one bad start (5 ER at MIN) among the seven.
• Peralta has looked sharp in his last 2 (at DET, v. NYM) but a trip to ATL is a much more robust challenge so let’s be careful and not just blindly run him.
• Manaea is coming off back-to-back Duds, but those were against TBR and MIL. He’s been much stronger against the weaker teams this year so while MIA is only 1 game under .500, their offense has been bottom-10 vL so I’m willing to give him a shot.
• I’m a longtime fan of Sandoval but he is just bludgeoning the WHIP with a 1.74 mark. And yet, I still have a 2-x for him against LAA, who sit 26th vL on the year and dead-last over the L30 days.
• Miller is at home where he flourishes (3.14 ERA/0.88 WHIP) but he hasn’t finished 5 IP in any of L3 and the last two at home haven’t been great. I can see taking the shot here as the TEX offense certainly isn’t scary, but I wasn’t super comfortable going beyond 1-x.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: week of 9/7)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

We’re off for the holiday so no comments today, but figured I would still run a board-only post for y’all! Btw, a few of y’all DM’d me about how Charlotte’s procedure went and it was great. She didn’t end up needing all her teeth out, just 2! And we’ve been through a 2-tooth removal before and everything went very smoothly again.

OK, I lied on no comments, I gotta give a few notes with some quirky things going on today:

• Burns is expected to be limited, but we don’t know exactly what that looks like (will it be 2-3 IP?). But it’s also a trip to LAD, so I’m not super excited to run. He also gets at MIL this weekend so just a brutal 2-step paired w/the limitations makes him a reasonable sit in a lot of spots, particularly if you’re chasing Ws.
• Ryan is returning from the IL with Connor Prielipp slated to go behind him. Again, not sure what sort of limit he’ll be on so definitely not a must-start.
• Pivetta returning from the IL, too, and had 64 pitches in his last rehab outing so he could have enough rope to go 5, but with James Wood back, WSN isn’t the greatest matchup.

Enjoy your Labor Day!

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9/4/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

YOUTUBE

• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK24 (Sep 7th)

• AUTO-START: Cam Schlittler, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Troy Melton
• Chase Burns CIN – @ LAD (wOBA Rk – 2), @ MIL (3) — facing IP limit rest of season
• Landen Roupp SF – vs STL (28), vs SD (22) 11:25
• Andrew Painter PHI – vs HOU (13), @ ATL (10) 13:40
• Noah Cameron KC – vs ARI (3), @ BOS (5) 17:45
• Jacob Lopez ATH – vs TOR (29), vs SEA (26) 20:30
• Joey Cantillo CLE – @ BAL (8), @ MIN (13) 23:23

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: week of 9/7)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I have to take Charlotte to the vet for a big dental procedure (my little ol’ lady is going to be fully toothless!) and then record the 2-start pod with Justin this morning. I can drop some notes and answer any comments after that but holy moly this is one of the worst full slates I’ve seen all year! Only 11 full recos and then 6 sketchy recos in the 1-2x range.

DET-CLE does have a doubleheader, but neither of the second starts (Logan Allen로건 for CLE, Andrew Sears for DET in what is likely a bullpen game) merit any attention.

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9/3/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

YOUTUBE

• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show

2027 DRAFT REVIEW PT. 2

Top 40 Fallers

• Paul Skenes 8 to 71 – 5:39
• Garrett Crochet 11 to 109 – 12:30
• Kyle Tucker 13 to 72 – 21:10
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 17 to 62 – 30:44

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Outside of Skubal and Sandy, every other 3-x carries some concern:

• McClanahan gets a TEX team that hits lefties really well and hasn’t reached 6 IP in any of his L6
• Henderson gets the blazing hot Cubs; Gausman gets the hot-hitting Brewers — I’m sure this’ll be 2-1 now, lol
• Bennett was uninspiring for 6 straight (5.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP) until his recent gem at NYY
• Soriano gets a nice matchup, but has just a 1.38 WHIP with TOR
• Brown was great last time out (6.7 IP/1 ER/10 Ks) but it was only his 2nd start of 0-1 BB all yr (13% BB)

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Thanks for coming out! If you missed it, please feel free to drop a comment with your question and I’ll get to it when I can. You can also leave questions in my daily SP charts in you have an inquiry on a non-chat day.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll answer questions about guys in the comments, plus I have my chat later this afternoon.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

About Last Night: a few notes about some Monday SPs

• What the hell was that, Kyle Harrison?! Yeah, CHC is #1 in wOBA vL so there were no guarantees, but I didn’t think he’d hit a full meltdown like that.
• George Kirby is a home-0nly starter the rest of the way… if that, tbh. We can’t keep banging our heads against the wall with him.
• A couple of HRs, including a 3-run shot, tanked Jackson Jobe’s outing and now through 5 starts, the 2 Duds have easily outweighed the two good ones and one decent one. This is a perfect microcosm for why I’m so cautious with TJ returners. See another JJ – Jared Jones – for a larger sample of TJ returner inconsistency. I still had Jobe as a 3-x, so I’m not pounding my chest here, more excoriating myself for not following my normal skepticism of this player class.
• deGrom maintained his 1 up, 1 down pattern, dominating ATH… can he break the streak and hold up v. TBR this weekend?

Tuesday’s Starters

• Luzardo had 4 Duds through his first 8 starts but allowed 4 ER in the other 4 starts combined so while frustrating, the poor starts weren’t really actionable and those who just kept him locked in the rotation have been rewarded handsomely: 2.12 ERA/1.02 WHIP/23% K-BB in 119.3 (19 starts) since the last of those Duds.
• I still think Melton has the stuff to be a legitimate ace as he develops but the Ks were back down again in August after a surge in July, giving him more of a Sandy Alcantara feel right now which is still great but short of a true fantasy ace.
• Remember when I floated the idea of Gav Williams dropping a 20-K game at LAA last week? That was cute… instead, he had his worst start of the year as he failed to finish 2 innings. (1.3 IP/5 ER)
• I really thought we’d see the other shoe drop with E-Rod as he had a 2.29 ERA/4.77 SIERA split in the first half and it seemed like the 88% LOB and .247 BABIP were ripe for regression. The regression has in fact come, with a 73% and .306 in the 2H, respectively, but his 0.95 HR9 is all the way down to 0.38 (6th best in 2H) and has masked a lot of the impact of that regression.
• PIT has slammed righties on the year (2nd in wOBA), but they’re just 28th in the 2H so I’m no longer running from them as much with non-ace righties. That doesn’t matter as much today as we’d be starting Webb even if they were still a top 5 offense against ’em, but just wanted to note that as we move through the final month. That would include guys like Landen Roupp, Blade Tidwell, and Walbert Ureña who draw PIT this week.
• I won’t blame anyone for skipping Bradish in Coors especially on the heels on a pair of rough outings (at STL, v. NYY). I don’t want to be overly influenced by Monday’s 2-1 game, either. A low scoring game one night doesn’t mean it can’t be 10-9 in the 4th inning the next in that park!
• I’m nervous to jump in on GrayRod, but he’s been pretty good lately with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L6 (32.7 IP). He has a couple meh 4 IP starts in the mix, but the other 4 starts have been really good, including a pair of 7 IP gems. NYY’s modest offense helps, too. Walby cooked ’em on Monday night!
• It might be too hard to get away from Woo in 15s, but as I mentioned with Kirby, he probably needs to be a home-only starter at this juncture: 2.63 ERA/0.79 WHIP at home | 5.96 ERA/1.38 WHIP on the road.
• Learned my lesson from Harrison, let’s avoid these Cubs right now.

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