6/19/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK13 (June 19th)

(Note: Timestamps are approximations because they are based on the straight record meaning the intro music will push ’em back a bit. This is my first time uploading an episode in a million years so just wanted to point out that I didn’t re-do them after putting the intro. -Paul)

• AUTO-START: Hunter Brown, Drew Rasmussen, Gavin Williams, Jesús Luzardo, Shane McClanahan, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Nolan McLean, Ryan Weathers, Sonny Gray
• Kyle Bradish BAL – @ LAA (22 wOBA rank), vs WSH (13) ~7:00
• Trey Yesavage TOR – vs HOU (15), vs TEX (20) 9:36
• Carlos Rodón NYY – @ DET (17), @ BOS (8) 13:40
• Michael King SD – vs ATL (5), vs LAD (1) 15:40
• Casey Mize DET – vs NYY (6), vs HOU (15) 18:40

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Comments in yellow added Fri AM

• Soriano is in for LAA, not Caden Dana. I’d consider him in between Sasaki & Cavalli.
• A devastating 5th inning v. CHW fueled by 3 BB brought Sasaki back down to Earth with 7 ER. But he allowed 7 ER in his previous 5 starts combined, posting a 2.16 ERA/0.86 WHIP/25% K-BB, so I’m inclined to give him a pass for a tough inning against a good young team and run him back out there without fear today.  
• Cavalli is a WHIP risk but has been running well of late (3.86 ERA/1.14 WHIP/19% K-BB in L5) and catches TBR at a good time with them sitting just 22nd vR in the L14 days.
• Meanwhile Suarez gets SEA an upswing as they’ve surge to 10th in the L14 days but he’s also back on track after a hiccup, including 13 Ks in 11.3 IP.
• Roupp is a big get for those who got him off the wire and he could be a big get in this start at a MIA team that doesn’t hit righties very well.
• Vásquez has gone full pumpkin and should be relegated back to streamer status. After a 16% K-BB in his first 8 starts – that included a 12% SwStr, nearly 2x his 2025 mark (7%) – he’d earned some trust, but he’s down to just 5% K-BB in his L6 with a 7% SwStr. And with that ringing endorsement… let’s start him at TEX!
• Tough to see Imai give back all the good of his 4-start run with one of the worst starts of the years: 5 runs on 4 H and 1 BB in just two outs of work. And yet I think we saddle back up here against the J-Ram-less Guardians.
• SEA is going to run Miller/Castillo but I’m not sure of the IP expectation. Miller is coming off an excellent 8-IP gem at WAS (7 Ks, 0 BB) while 3 UER helped Castillo survive his trip to DC.

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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Woo has just a 6.26 ERA over his L4 but three were on the road and he’s really developed a venue-based split this year. He has a 2.37 ERA/0.71 WHIP in 6 home starts but 5.93/1.32 on the road in 8 starts. He’s always had that split, but it used to be elite at home and simply good on the road (3.71 ERA/1.09 WHIP coming into this year). A 12-point drop to 19% K rate on the road is what pushes me to taking this split more seriously. As such, I might be open to skipping his at PIT next week, at least in shallower formats. I still think even a diminished Woo is probably better than what most people have on their bench or wire in 15-teamers (not that you’d cut him, I’m not advocating of that at all, just saying you were looking for someone to fill-in next week off the wire).

• Messick now has 120 career IP of 2.69 ERA/1.16 WHIP… what a stud! Someone brought up possibly trading him in my chat as a preemptive strike against a possible IP limit, but he threw 138.3 IP last year between the majors and minors so even just a 15% bump gets us 160 and shouldn’t require any major layoffs to get there.
• Gray has been finding his footing of late with a 2.29 ERA and 24% K in 7 starts since coming off the IL (4.30/1.30 before that).
• Is Manaea recapturing his 2024 groove? 2.91 ERA/0.92 WHIP/22% K-BB in his L5 outings including his first traditional start of the year last time out during which he went 6 strong (2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB).
• MIL just keeps twisting the knife of the Devers deal for BOS as Drohan looks to settle into his role. Even with 5 IP/4 ER v. PHI, he still had 7 K/0 BB. His 7% HR/FB probably has some regression coming, but so does the 65% LOB rate so a mid-3.00s ERA with strong supporting skills seems plenty doable. He’s also 27 years old so he doesn’t necessarily have to be babies IP-wise, but on the other hand he has just 70 combined IP the last two years so they also can’t just push him to the max. I’m not concerned about any IP caps right now, though.
• Yesavage retains his 3-x status thanks to an easier matchup after posting Duds in 3 of his L4 with 17 BB in the 22.3 IP being a huge problem.
• Weathers and Roupp have sputtered significantly over their L5 including 3 straight Duds from Weathers while an 8-bomb at MIL and modest 4.7 IP/4 ER v. CHC last time out overpower 3 solid starts from Roupp in his recent quintet. Both get very difficult matchups, too, so they might even be skippable in 12s depending on your depth and what you need in the standings.
• NYY is worse without Judge, but not bad as they sit 12th in wOBA v. righties this month. Burke has labored through a pair of 5 BB outings at PHI and v. LAD but has still managed 13 Ks in the 8.3 IP of work.
• SFG has been top 10 vL over the last two weeks (and even better vR) so I haven’t been blindly recommending guys against them and certainly wouldn’t give Pérez if he wasn’t pitching well of late (3.81 ERA/1.19 WHIP in L5).
• Jump has been nice in his first 4 starts – 2 home, 2 away – so I’m open to considering him in a lot of spots against the K-heavy Angels (25% K vR).
• Leiter’s recent record (6.15 ERA/1.52 WHIP in L5) paired with MIN surging a bit offensively (6th wOBA vR in L14 days and that doesn’t even include their shellacking of Rocker tonight) makes him more of a lottery ticket stream at best.
• SEA is no longer a pushover at home, sitting 8th in wOBA vR at home this year and I’ve never been shy about my distrust of Baz, so be careful here.
• Obviously a big part of streaming is using less than stable skillsets against weaker opponents but I still want to be discerning and not just blindly start guys I don’t actually trust. To that end, I’m not sure I see many fits for Nola even against the lowly Mets. He’s now at a 5.95 ERA over his last 165 IP thanks in large part to a 1.7 HR9. If he wasn’t named Aaron Nola, we wouldn’t even be giving him a second look. I’m a track record/pedigree guy so I don’t discount a player’s history, but the simple fact is that old Nola isn’t comin’ back!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Afternoon updates:

• Senga coming off the IL and Scott headed on it (hip). Don’t start Senga until we see something and probably 2-3 good starts worth of that “something”
• Rasmussen isn’t risk-free at LAD but he’s just too good for me to be concerned by his matchups
• Commenter TJ brought up some King concerns for 10-teamers and it’s not completely unfounded with a 6.45 ERA/1.39 WHIP in his L4 starts but I’m not totally off him based on this run. ATH and WAS got to him the most, allowing 9 ER in 9.3 IP. ATH beat him straight up, but 4 of the 5 at WAS came in the 7th inning of what had been a solid start to that point (outside of the meager 2 Ks). He went 6 IP/4 ER v. NYM which falls shy of a QS but certainly isn’t a terrible outing. And then his most recent was 6.7 IP/3 ER v. CIN. Despite the ERA, I love that he’s gone 6+ in 3 of the 4. I will concede he’s not a must-start in 10s given the lighter skills (12% K-BB) compared to his recent years and a .246 BABIP that is rife for some more regression, but he remains startable against an OK Cardinals lineup. I do think 10-team managers have to think deeply about the ATL/LAD 2-step he’s set up for next week as they could get that BABIP regression going in earnest. Coming back around on this to say I’m convinced to drop King a bit after another “bleh” outing (4.3 IP/3 ER/8 BR/1 K)… in fact “bleh” is taking him off the hook a bit, it was bad. He’ll now be in the 1-2x range depending on matchup and that 2-step next week now becomes a potential cut point for 10-teamers since I can’t imagine you’d want to use it. Good call, TJ! 
• Holmes is more of a Wins chase and with SFG’s recent offensive surge, I downgraded him to 1-x.
• I want to love Perkins and even picked him up in my Main Event league on June 7th but it’s been tough to confidently start him. I didn’t even consider Vegas last week and then labored on this week’s 2-step — both at home — before eventually slotting him in. I’d likely skip this in daily moves leagues before jumping in this weekend against LAA.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’m headed to Houston to watch the Tigers game and staying overnight so I’m going to load Tuesday’s board now as-is and it’ll run tomorrow night. I’m sure there’ll be changes, but it’ll be easier for me to address those in comments as opposed to finding time to put together the board on the road.

• I was stunned Imanaga went into Coors and dominated like that. He should be able to pull it off again as long as the wind isn’t blowing out 15 mph or something crazy.
• Core skills were better for Melton last time out with 5 K/0 BB in 5 IP, but 4 HRs (all solo) soured the outing a bit. He nabbed the Win, though, and still has sparkling ratios while he figures out the strikeouts and walks.
• This certified Dustin May Skeptic is on the train! He’s finally missing bats with consistency, posting a 3.25 ERA/0.97 WHIP in his L6 with 21% K-BB and 13% SwStr supporting the 28% K rate.
• Few teams have a wider start/sit range based on pitcher handedness than Arizona, sitting 28th vR and earning Ureña a full reco. Meanwhile, they sit 5th vL leaving me starting only the very best southpaws against them.
• A nightmare inning in each of his last 2 have pushed Teng’s ERA more than a full run to 3.71 and it seemed to be inevitable with his elevated walk rate. He skated on an 18% BB rate in his 3 starts before the struggles allowing just 3 ER in 16 IP. DET is hitting better of late, but is walking at a below average clip so they might not be able to take advantage of Teng’s problem.
• Jones had a solid 4-inning outing v. LAD but heading Sacramento is a different story and I’m definitely a bit nervous to run this one. He gets a trip to COL this weekend for the other part of his 2-step so I wouldn’t even necessarily justify this in a weekly setup.
• The PHI offense just keeps stinking so Gusto has some juice to stream.
• Alvarez sank himself at SFG with 5 BB but they could only cash in two of his 10 base runners. I still like plenty of what I’m seeing here and think this could be a successful 2-step (at TBR this wknd).

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6/12/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK12 (June 8th)

• AUTO-START: Chase Burns, Zack Wheeler, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole – 4:36, Payton Tolle
• Shota Imanaga CHC – vs COL (28 wOBA rank), vs TOR (27) – 6:51
• Reid Detmers LAA – @ ARI (4), @ ATH (5) – 10:10
• Jared Jones PIT – @ ATH (12), @ COL (8) – 13:00
• MacKenzie Gore TEX – vs MIN (20), vs SD (29) – ~17:00
• Walbert Ureña LAA – @ ARI (28), @ ATH (11) – 20:20
• Seth Lugo KC – @ WSH (13), vs STL (18) – 26:22
• Ryne Nelson ARI – vs LAA (22), vs MIN (19) – 28:49
• Nick Martinez TB – @ LAD (1), vs WSH (13) – 31:00

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Dodgers star catcher Will Smith hit the IL this week with neck inflammation that could keep him out past the minimum 10 days as Dave Roberts also suggested he’d need a ramp up period upon returning, though it wasn’t clear if that meant a full-on rehab stint. The 31-year-old backstop has disappointed this year, sitting 16th among catchers on the Player Rater. He’s hitting .249/.338/.382 with 6 HR, 23 RBI, and 23 R in 201 PA.

I was really excited about him this year, seeing him as an undervalued C1 in 2-catcher setups and a cheaper way to get a good piece of the coveted Dodgers lineup. While I never thought his .296 AVG was coming again this year, I didn’t expect a fallback all the way to 2024’s level (.248), either, but maybe I should have upon further investigation. Obviously the .345 BABIP that drove his AVG last year wasn’t going to sustain but he was a firm .270s BABIP guy for four years before that, posting a .257 AVG in the process. He’s at a .272 BABIP and .249 AVG this year so that likely should’ve been my expectation.

At C16 on the Player Rater, he was underwhelming-but-fine in 2-catcher leagues and certainly not killing anyone in 1-catcher setups. Let’s take a look at a few guys who could be worth picking up to replace him and possibly even keeping around when he returns.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

They’re working on a transformer here so the power is going out intermittently this morning.

• I didn’t realize ATH was in Vegas all week, so that Jump reco was misguided at best. Easy no-go there.
• Ben Brown has been pushed back to tomorrow.
• I’m never particularly excited to start Baz, but it’s hard to envision a better matchup
• Leiter/Imai are matchup recos, though they’ve been passable of late (mid-4.00s ERA in L30 for both) but Imai’s 1.17 WHIP is a good bit better than Leiter’s 1.27 in that same span.
• I know Sandy had an amazing 2-step last week, but this is a very difficult matchup so I don’t think he’s a must in 10s. His platoon split plays right into their strong lefty lineup, too. Not even sure you have to run this in 12s. I got burned for being proactive with him last week and actually skipped the 2-step. Of course, I put him back in this week to eat what will surely be a flameout. 🤣

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