9/4/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK24 (Sep 7th)

• AUTO-START: Cam Schlittler, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Troy Melton
• Chase Burns CIN – @ LAD (wOBA Rk – 2), @ MIL (3) — facing IP limit rest of season
• Landen Roupp SF – vs STL (28), vs SD (22) 11:25
• Andrew Painter PHI – vs HOU (13), @ ATL (10) 13:40
• Noah Cameron KC – vs ARI (3), @ BOS (5) 17:45
• Jacob Lopez ATH – vs TOR (29), vs SEA (26) 20:30
• Joey Cantillo CLE – @ BAL (8), @ MIN (13) 23:23

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I have to take Charlotte to the vet for a big dental procedure (my little ol’ lady is going to be fully toothless!) and then record the 2-start pod with Justin this morning. I can drop some notes and answer any comments after that but holy moly this is one of the worst full slates I’ve seen all year! Only 11 full recos and then 6 sketchy recos in the 1-2x range.

DET-CLE does have a doubleheader, but neither of the second starts (Logan Allen로건 for CLE, Andrew Sears for DET in what is likely a bullpen game) merit any attention.

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9/3/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

YOUTUBE

• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show

2027 DRAFT REVIEW PT. 2

Top 40 Fallers

• Paul Skenes 8 to 71 – 5:39
• Garrett Crochet 11 to 109 – 12:30
• Kyle Tucker 13 to 72 – 21:10
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 17 to 62 – 30:44

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Outside of Skubal and Sandy, every other 3-x carries some concern:

• McClanahan gets a TEX team that hits lefties really well and hasn’t reached 6 IP in any of his L6
• Henderson gets the blazing hot Cubs; Gausman gets the hot-hitting Brewers — I’m sure this’ll be 2-1 now, lol
• Bennett was uninspiring for 6 straight (5.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP) until his recent gem at NYY
• Soriano gets a nice matchup, but has just a 1.38 WHIP with TOR
• Brown was great last time out (6.7 IP/1 ER/10 Ks) but it was only his 2nd start of 0-1 BB all yr (13% BB)

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Thanks for coming out! If you missed it, please feel free to drop a comment with your question and I’ll get to it when I can. You can also leave questions in my daily SP charts in you have an inquiry on a non-chat day.

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I’ll answer questions about guys in the comments, plus I have my chat later this afternoon.

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About Last Night: a few notes about some Monday SPs

• What the hell was that, Kyle Harrison?! Yeah, CHC is #1 in wOBA vL so there were no guarantees, but I didn’t think he’d hit a full meltdown like that.
• George Kirby is a home-0nly starter the rest of the way… if that, tbh. We can’t keep banging our heads against the wall with him.
• A couple of HRs, including a 3-run shot, tanked Jackson Jobe’s outing and now through 5 starts, the 2 Duds have easily outweighed the two good ones and one decent one. This is a perfect microcosm for why I’m so cautious with TJ returners. See another JJ – Jared Jones – for a larger sample of TJ returner inconsistency. I still had Jobe as a 3-x, so I’m not pounding my chest here, more excoriating myself for not following my normal skepticism of this player class.
• deGrom maintained his 1 up, 1 down pattern, dominating ATH… can he break the streak and hold up v. TBR this weekend?

Tuesday’s Starters

• Luzardo had 4 Duds through his first 8 starts but allowed 4 ER in the other 4 starts combined so while frustrating, the poor starts weren’t really actionable and those who just kept him locked in the rotation have been rewarded handsomely: 2.12 ERA/1.02 WHIP/23% K-BB in 119.3 (19 starts) since the last of those Duds.
• I still think Melton has the stuff to be a legitimate ace as he develops but the Ks were back down again in August after a surge in July, giving him more of a Sandy Alcantara feel right now which is still great but short of a true fantasy ace.
• Remember when I floated the idea of Gav Williams dropping a 20-K game at LAA last week? That was cute… instead, he had his worst start of the year as he failed to finish 2 innings. (1.3 IP/5 ER)
• I really thought we’d see the other shoe drop with E-Rod as he had a 2.29 ERA/4.77 SIERA split in the first half and it seemed like the 88% LOB and .247 BABIP were ripe for regression. The regression has in fact come, with a 73% and .306 in the 2H, respectively, but his 0.95 HR9 is all the way down to 0.38 (6th best in 2H) and has masked a lot of the impact of that regression.
• PIT has slammed righties on the year (2nd in wOBA), but they’re just 28th in the 2H so I’m no longer running from them as much with non-ace righties. That doesn’t matter as much today as we’d be starting Webb even if they were still a top 5 offense against ’em, but just wanted to note that as we move through the final month. That would include guys like Landen Roupp, Blade Tidwell, and Walbert Ureña who draw PIT this week.
• I won’t blame anyone for skipping Bradish in Coors especially on the heels on a pair of rough outings (at STL, v. NYY). I don’t want to be overly influenced by Monday’s 2-1 game, either. A low scoring game one night doesn’t mean it can’t be 10-9 in the 4th inning the next in that park!
• I’m nervous to jump in on GrayRod, but he’s been pretty good lately with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L6 (32.7 IP). He has a couple meh 4 IP starts in the mix, but the other 4 starts have been really good, including a pair of 7 IP gems. NYY’s modest offense helps, too. Walby cooked ’em on Monday night!
• It might be too hard to get away from Woo in 15s, but as I mentioned with Kirby, he probably needs to be a home-only starter at this juncture: 2.63 ERA/0.79 WHIP at home | 5.96 ERA/1.38 WHIP on the road.
• Learned my lesson from Harrison, let’s avoid these Cubs right now.

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• Tolle has allowed more than 3 ER just once over his L9 outings, posting a beautiful 2.65 ERA/1.04 WHIP/28% K-BB in 51 IP. Today, he gets the 30th ranked offense versus lefties.
• Any concerns for Harrison after the shellacking at SDP have been tamped down by 2 strong starts since, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP with 13 Ks. CHC is scary, especially with how dialed in PCA is right now, but Harrison doesn’t leave the rotation for me.
• A gem last time out from Kirby (7.7 IP/1 ER/9 Ks) inspires some confidence, but man oh man it’s been a grind this year. I mentioned ahead of his last start that SEA’s defense is a big reason behind his struggles and obviously one good start doesn’t fix that. I can’t see benching him despite the bumpy year, though.
• deGrom’s been on a 1 up/1 down pattern over his last 8 starts but it’s so hard to take those sort of runs seriously. If anything, it just underscores a pitcher’s start-to-start inconsistency and there are no guarantees the pattern will continue meaning we can’t expect a good outing just because the last one was bad. And yet, I still have him at 3-x as he’s facing the battered A’s lineup at home. I might have more caution if it was in Sacramento, but this is the right setup for him to continue to this weird pattern.
• A 9 ER Dud v. LAA two starts ago has saddled Lambert with a 6.12 ERA over the month but that’s literally his only bad start during the run. In fact, it’s the only start where he’s allowed more than 2 ER in his L10 and he did rebound from the LAA outing with a solid 5.7 IP/2 ER/5 Ks at NYY.
• I’ve got some nerves about this Nola rebirth as the 2.63 ERA comes with a 1.26 WHIP over his L6 starts but the run also comes with a 29% K rate and of course his residence on a strong PHI team gives him a decent W probability (though he is just 2-2 during this run).
• COL is just 11th in wOBA at home since the break giving me more confidence to run Bradish in Coors today. I’ll never give managers a hard time for skipping Coors with non-aces especially if you’re protecting ratios against the meltdown start (which Bradish had last time out with 7 ER at STL).
• Ureña, not Mitch Farris, going for LAA. While NYY got Belly back and Luis Garcia Jr. has been excellent with them, they remain a pretty non-threatening offense without Judge. Ureña’s ERA is due for some regression given how many base runners he allows but even if he’s more high 3.00s than high-2.00s, I’m still comfortable using him v. NYY today. 

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Pardon me for no Thursday board. I was light on sleep Wednesday night and then crashed after my morning stream. I will have some comments in the morning on Friday’s star-studded board.

• Any Tigers fan who boos Skubal tonight is a stone cold loser. He was traded and it’s not like he demanded to be moved. Anything but overwhelming love for him would be really out of pocket to me.
• McClanahan catches a hot hitting SDP team (9th wOBA vL in L30) but after 5 scoreless on 74 pitches last time out – his 2nd start off the IL – I’m confident installing back into every lineup.
• The erosion of the Nationals offense has been a tough watch. Trades of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia were one thing, but then James Wood’s injury and the absolute worst month of the year for CJ Abrams has them sitting just 26th in wOBA versus over the last month and down to 14th on the season. The 4th for the year going into August! I say all that and Eury was just fine against them last time out (5 IP/1 ER/3 BB/4 Ks) but there’s a chance for a big outing for sure.
• Classic TJ returner season for Jones. RIGHT when you get comfortable with them as a must start, they hit the rug pull! After a nasty July, Jones has made it 5 IP just once in 4 August tries, was pasted for 8 ER v. NYM, and was lucky to survive LAD with 4 IP/2 ER given his 5 BB. Predictably, it’s been spotty command and control behind his struggles with a 14% BB rate and 2.3 HR9 over his L4. Like I said, classic TJ returner! All that said, though, and he’s still catching a relatively high slot in the 3-x tier as a trip to STL provides a good chance to get right. Another major struggle here would make him a tough start anywhere next week, though. (Note: he was moved down from 8th to 12th after the original post).
• I remain terrified of anyone pitching in Sacramento but Lopez has simply been far too good over his L7 to sit anywhere: 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP/22% K-BB in 39 IP, including 4 home starts.
• 2 great, 2 awful starts for Mize with SDP so far, including an early departure after slipping down the stairs between innings and rolling his ankle in his last one. He’s said to be recovered from that and ready to go today, but with a tough matchup on tap, I can see some skips… especially if you’re protecting ratios and a Dud would really hurt you.
• Brown certainly hasn’t been the frontliner we expected for a while now, toting a 4.41 ERA/1.41 WHIP combo over his L9 with a paltry 7% K-BB. He’s allowed multiple BB and 1 HR in each of his L5, too, thus taking him out of any must-start status. I still have a hard time getting away from him in deeper formats, but 10-team managers shouldn’t feel obligated to run him.
• It’s only 1 spot, but Painter should be ahead of Bradford on matchup alone, especially as Bradford has been “meh” lately while Painter is surging: 3.62 ERA/1.06 WHIP/14% K-BB. He did suffer a Dud at MIN thanks to a 4-run first inning but he stabilized and dropped four strong IP after that and then bounced back in the next start (his most recent) for his best start of the year: 7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/8 Ks.
• Sandoval rebounded from his Dud at PIT with 5.7 IP/2 ER/2 BB/6 Ks v. SFG, but it was his 6th straight game with at least 2 BB. This ostensibly should be a good matchup for him despite heading to NYY. Their lefty-laden lineup should play into Sandy’s strengths, despite what a disgusting .586 BABIP vL has done to his numbers this year. That’s clearly small sample flukiness to me so I’m willing to run him in some spots tonight.
• I would still be pretty nervous to run Anderson or Sugano, but they are catching their otherwise tough opponents at the right moment with LAD 25th and ATL 29th in wOBA vR over the L30 days.

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Thanks for coming out!!

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