Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
I forgot Taj got moved and still had Ober loaded. Pittsburgh is no joke, but Bradley has done his best work v. lefties this year, which is their lineup’s strength so I’m running him everywhere. Ober is much scarier tomorrow given his work v. lefties (7 HRs in 129 PA). Ober’s .181 BABIP vL is saving him… for now.
Gore is back up the board with a good matchup and 2 excellent starts in his L3 with the third being an injury-shortened Coors outing. In the other two, he allowed 4 H and 3 BB in 14 IP with 12 Ks.
Wrigley giventh and Wrigley taketh — Imanaga’s HR rate was always going to regress as the weather warmed up, especially given his home park. And it came crashing down in a 15 ER 2-start run against MIL/HOU, one of which was a Wrigley classic with the wind blowing out at 15 mph to center. After 5 HRs in his first 9 starts, he doubled his season total in these last two. This is why I ranked him in the 50s in March. I moved him up during first update as he was running hot and the weather was cooperating. He’ll move back down in the next update and likely live more in the 35-50 range going forward. He wasn’t as good as his first 9 starts nor is he as bad as these last 2. He should be around a 3.80-4.20 ERA range with a good WHIP and plenty of Ks (26% this yr; 24% career).
The bottom half of the full recos carry some concern, but I have a hard time sitting them anywhere:
Valdez gets a CHW team that is cooking vL as he navigates thru an inconsistent May (6.10 ERA – 2 QS, a Dud, and a bland 5 IP/4 ER/4 BB start) but he remains a lineup lock. It’s Melton, not Framber, but you can use that Framber info for tomorrow. CHW isn’t quite as good vR but they can still bite ya. That said, I’m running Melton.
Rodón is now making his 4th start of the year, having reached 95 pitches and 5 IP last time out so he seems fully stretched out. The problem is he has 5, 3, and 3 BB during the first three resulting in a 1.46 WHIP. Can ATH take advantage, though? They have just an 8% BB vL (20th).
Webb is coming off the IL with a start in Coors… less than ideal, but I’m running him!
Wrobleski has excellent ratios (and 6 Ws!) this year but I can’t simply ignore his 14% K and 7% K-BB rates. PHI is looking more like the team we thought they’d be so while I can’t see myself sitting him in any league setup, he’s not nearly as appealing on the DFS landscape.
And then Martinez is an even more extreme version of Wrobo with great ratios (1.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) that aren’t well supported by his skills (15% K, 10% K-BB). I worry more about a mega Dud from him than Wrobleski and yet I still have a really hard time sitting him. Martinez survived a trip to NYY with a 6 IP/1 ER gem despite 9 H and only 1 K!!!
I added the 3rd “x” to Alvarez because he’s getting an Opener which enhances his Win potential. He has impressed in three extended relief outings, putting together a 30% K-BB and 0.99 WHIP in 11.3 IP (4.3, 3, and 4 IP). My friend Gregg put Alvarez on my radar a couple weeks ago as he could be someone the Nats make a fixture in their rotation (and we’re fine if they keep giving him the Opener!!).
Teng was also put on my radar by Gregg as he’s really been keyed in on the super RPs with SP upside (we’re both Ben Brown stans, too). 7 BB in his L2 starts has pushed his WHIP, but a 1.93 ERA/1.21 WHIP combo in his 3 actual starts is impressive. He obviously needs to reign in the BBs but we can live with a 9-10% BB as long as he’s missing enough bats to maintain his 15% K-BB. Will he hold a rotation spot after Brown returns?
I’m interested in Ureña on the whole but this could be a tough matchup where the Rays exploit his 1.38 WHIP despite the great 2.58 ERA. Those just aren’t compatible and usually an ERA/WHIP mismatch that strong suggests ERA trouble ahead. He does get COL at home next week, though, so even if you pass this start, hold him for that one.
Another Brewers gem developing with Crow or just a handful of good IP? He throws 92 and has just an 8% SwStr, so it’s probably just the latter, but any MIL pitcher at least gets my attention to dive deeper. This feels like the 3% BB and .226 BABIP are doing all the work.
Love Jared Jones, just want to see something before diving in. He could be a huge target in FAAB this weekend, especially on the NFBC landscape where he isn’t available to pick up until debuting (unless he was drafted & dropped).
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Pretty straightforward board of starts/sits. Check back for some notes in the AM.
Thanks for coming out!! Sorry I forgot to post my goodbye before closing the chat. I just totally brainfarted and hit the end button before enter.
1:00
Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out!!
1:00
Guest: Esmerlyn vs Nate Lowe in OBP?
1:01
Paul Sporer: It’s Lowe for me. Valdez is interesting, but probably peaks as a Lowe-type
1:01
Jip Needs to Know: Do you think McGonigle has some Roman Anthony in him in the sense that he’s got great barrel rate and hitting skills but that it might not translate to HR power?
1:02
Paul Sporer: Yeah, I don’t think he’s a lock 30-HR guy necessarily, but he’s also one of these guys who seems like he’s just going to keep getting better. The Utley comps are lofty but not completely misplaced as a top end
1:02
Ginn’ed up: I’m on the JT Ginn bandwagon, but his next starts are tough. Better to swap out for a reliever (or his new teammate Jump?) or is he now a team streamer in deep leagues?
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Sandlin, part of the Garrett Crochet deal, is making his MLB debut for the White Sox. Exciting live arm with a 35% K rate in the minors this year, but also a 15% BB and averaging just over 2 IP/outing so this might end up being more of an open leading into a bullpen game. Martin moved to tomorrow.
Pérez is simply NOT a must-use in shallower leagues and this might be a do-or-die start for his roster status in those formats, too. He and Alcantara just aren’t getting it done and we have to divorce the name value from the skills (Sandy more so, tbh, as Pérez at least has the 25% K rate to cling to.
Mize should pitch well before Jansen blows his win by somehow getting walked off at home.
I know we’re nervously waiting for the bottom to drop out on Elder, but after 11 starts of 1.97 ERA/0.99 WHIP, I’m inclined to ride it out even if means possibly eating a bad regression start. He has the hallmarks of a fluky hot start with a .227 BABIP, 83% LOB, and 7% HR/FB – all career bests that won’t last – and yet he keeps cooking and plays on a great team so maybe even a “meh” start steals a Win!
Cole is right back into all lineups even if you wanted to see one off the IL.
Can we give Matz some love while numbers remain strong? I did shave an “x” off him to 2 after digging into the skills a bit (11% K-BB, 9% BB, 1.3 HR9, 4.40 SIERA) but plenty startable in medium and deeper leagues. Being on the Rays helps the Win upside, too.
An 11-K game doesn’t take Chandler completely out of the woods… still came w/3 BB and 3 unearned runs at TOR.
That 1 “x” for Cameron was an accident. Don’t throw him v. NYY!
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
I took the holiday off so no Monday board, hope y’all navigated the day well without me! I’ll be back tonight with a feature write up and comments.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Comments in the morning!
I was among those ready for the Eury Pérez ascent this year. A pair of 90-something IP samples separated by a TJ year saw him put up a 3.71 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 20% K-BB in 187 IP. I would, of course, loved that as a line this year but I’ll admit I had dreams of even more on that ERA front. While my expectation was ace, it was certainly in cards as a reasonable outcome for the 23-year old. And it may still come fruition, it’s a long season after all, but as we sit here on May 22nd, he’s no doubt on the verge of being cut in some shallow leagues, particularly if tonight goes poorly. In fact, because I’m writing the commentary a few hours the board went up I know there’s already a comment saying as much! And frankly, I get it. Worse yet, us Eury fans are to blame for our overzealousness.
We’re not to blame for his struggles, obviously, but rather our expectations were a bit outsized even before the benefit of hindsight. Lost in the gloss of his first 187 IP was both the glaring HR issue and modest BB% output. While he did improve his HR rate last year from 1.5 to 1.1, anything north of 1.0 puts you in the danger zone, though his pristine WHIP made it less of a huge concern with the idea being that limited base runners should keep those to mostly solo shots. That’s where the walks come in. I’m not saying anyone should’ve fully predicted his rate ballooning to 12%, but matching 8.3% marks in his first two seasons essentially left him around average. The walk rate on its own isn’t something that would raise a red flag for me, especially with that 28% strikeout rate supporting it, but when paired with the home run troubles, it should’ve at least opened my eyes to the potential of trouble for Pérez. I was operating as though he was much more of a finished product than we’ve seen so far this year: 5.33/1.41/13% in 52 IP.
Now he gets a Mets team that is last in wOBA vR on the season, but finding their footing a bit of late, sitting 15th in the last two weeks. Another stinker here, particularly if it ends up being his 6th straight start with at least 2 BB (only 2 starts under 2 BB this and those were both 1, so he has 0 BB-free starts), has to start bringing up some shallow league cut questions and definitely puts him on the bench for me in medium and deep leagues with a trip TOR coming up next week. And the lack of a cut in those formats is definitely due more to lack of quality options off the wire. If you’re blessed with some wire gems who are better than Pérez, then by all means, but as I look over the available names in my 15-teamers where I have him, I see the likes of his teammate Janson Junk, newcomer Tatsuya Imai, and also-ran Padres Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning, none of whom are appealing enough for me to make the move.
Others of note:
Myers in for Peralta as the Mets pushed their guys back a day. Thanks to commenter David Klein on the note there! We still had Peralta in when I ran the board last night.
Gilbert has two Duds this year, including a 7 ER bomb his last time out which pushed his ERA to 4.45 on the year and has led to some light chatter about his status on rosters. I don’t really agree with that, even in shallow leagues. In between the 2 Duds, he posted a 2.97 ERA/1.10 WHIP/20% K-BB in 39 IP. Worth noting he went >5 IP in both Duds, too, which is what aces do to salvage ERAs even during their worst outings. The 1.7 HR9 is a bit alarming on the season but that is a very recent issue with 7 HRs in L3, including 4 v. ATL. This is a good spot to get right at KCR, but even if it’s wobbly, I’d be more open to buying low than any sort of cut.
Soroka has some upside to him if he can reel in his hit rate. A 28% LD rate has pushed him up to a .351 BABIP and left him with a 9.4 H9. That line drive rate should hopefully regress back toward his 22% mark or ideally even further down toward his 16% rate from 2023-25 and bring the hit rate down with it. His 20% K-BB is worthy of a low-3.00s ERA if he can shave this WHIP down.
Henderson only has 43 IP as a big leaguer, but he’s been electric (2.49/1.02/27%) and paired with his minor league track record and prospect pedigree have me ready to run him anywhere versus the ever-difficult Dodgers. Sometimes doing the comments hours after post can be really helpful because the wonderful commenters help me out with rundowns like this about Henderson from Anon:
I’m sure Paul will chime in but there are so many stats where Henderson is basically elite: 28.2% K-BB 87.7 EV 28.9% HardHit 35.0% O-swingNow, his Barrel% is a a little higher than you’d like and while his 13.0% SwStr is very good, it isn’t elite. He also is an heavily extreme FB pitcher so there is always a risk of a HR game messing things up. He also has an insanely high overall Swing% so batters are swinging at everything he throws up there, not just balls.I also like that he’s home. We all know about Coors and everyone knows T-Mobile is an extreme pitcher’s park, but Milwaukee is a pitcher’s park and importantly, it is an extreme strikeout park. I’m starting to think that we underrate that about that park. It has a K park factor around 110 year-in, year-out. We all note that the Brewers are good at developing pitching, but maybe it’s at least partly the ballpark.
No sense just repeating all that in a different way, Anon nailed it. Here we go with Henderson today!
I sliced an “x” off Arrighetti from the original posting as I’m just a bit nervous about his 14% BB rate heading to Wrigley.
I know it’s so hard to bench a 1.51 ERA/1.04 WHIP with Martinez, but I really don’t see him being any different than last year outside of his fortunate 5% HR/FB rate. He has a 16% K, 5% BB, 8% SwStr this year v. 17%, 6%, 9% last year. But a 91% LOB, .255 BABIP, and that aforementioned 5% HR/FB are driving the bus and run completely counter to his 69%, .274, 11% last year and 74%, .280, and 11% career marks. He is catching NYY at the right time (26th vR the L14 days), but it still feels like a big regression start.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize (12) delivers a pitch against Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit in Monday, August 4, 2025.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Got rid of the Blue/Black color coding at the top/bottom end. Just Green = good, Yellow = OK, Red = bad.
