This Grady Sizemore kid is pretty good. And he might get even better.

Sizemore is going to be 26 years old next season – in other words, he’s just now beginning to enter his prime. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the American League, and a thought that you should keep in mind in your draft: Grady isn’t even in his prime yet.

Sizemore has managed to improve in a few aspects of his game every season he’s been in the majors. In his first full season in 2005, he had an excellent season (especially for a 22-year old!), but he hit fly balls only 31% of the time and was caught stealing 31% of the time. He also only walked in 7.5% of his plate appearances.

In 2006, Sizemore stopped getting caught stealing as often and walked 10.6% of the time. He also hit fly balls on 46.9% of his balls in play. However, he only stole 22 bases and struck out 23.4% of the time.

In 2007, Sizemore again upped his walk rate by over 3%, raising it to 13.9%. He also continued his efficient thievery on the base paths, and stole more often – he stole 33 bases in 43 attempts. He once again continued to strike out at a high rate, and he lost a few homers (he hit only 24).

In 2008, Sizemore’s skills really began to come together. Sizemore stole 38 bases while only getting caught five times. He maintained a walk rate over 13%, but reduced his strikeout rate from 24.7% to 20.5%. He also topped 30 homers for the first time in his career, smacking 33 long balls. Sizemore had always been a patient hitter, but in 2008 he swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in his career, only 41.8%. He also posted the highest contact rate of his career, all while maintaining his high walk rate and improving his power.

What does this mean for the future? Well, I’m admittedly bullish (full disclosure: I was born and raised in Cleveland and remain an Indians fan), but I think I have just cause: Grady Sizemore has been great throughout his career, he’s entering his prime, and his statistical track record suggests that he’s just now starting to put it all together.

Sizemore stole the most bases of his career last year (and was successful in 88% of his attempts) and hit the most homers of his career. He also struck out at the lowest rate of his career while maintaining a walk rate of over 13%. He continued to be selective at the plate, and made more contact when he did choose to swing. The only bad part of his 2008 campaign was his relatively low batting average – .268, to be exact. It seems counterintuitive that his BA would fall in a year in which he improved strikeout rate. Sure enough, Sizemore’s BABIP last year was a career-low .291 – this after posting BABIPs of .334, .342, and .335 over the last three years. And for those wondering, Sizemore’s 19.4% line-drive percentage was only a little lower than his career LD of 21%.

If Sizemore is able to post the same strikeout and walk rates in 2009 as he did in 2008, his batting average is likely to rise thanks to an improved BABIP. But as we know, Sizemore may not simply post the same stats again. He’s managed to improve in one or two aspects of his game virtually every season in the majors, and I’ll say it again: he’s just now entering his prime.

While it’s possible that Sizemore could experience some backslide in 2009, it’s far more likely that Sizemore will maintain the gains he’s made: namely, increased power, increased efficiency on the basepaths, and a reduced strikeout rate – and it’s certainly possible that he’ll further improve in some area as well. For example, although he has made strides in his hitting against left-handed pitching, Sizemore’s line against lefties in 2008 was a mere .224/.347/.388. If Sizemore improves his batting average and/or slugging percentage against lefties – even a little – his overall line will receive a boost.

Grady Sizemore is clearly a first round pick in most drafts. Just keep in mind: as good as he was in 2008, he has a legitimate chance to be even better in 2009.

When evaluating the statistical track record of a pitching prospect, I like to look at three main things:

Strikeout rate.

Walk rate.

Ground ball rate.

Obviously, components like velocity, scouting report, and the level at which the pitcher played are very important. But these three things tend to be the best way to quickly evaluate a pitching prospect. Guys who are above average in one of these three things can often be adequate major leaguers (assuming they can be above-average in the majors). Guys who are above average in two tend to be decent/pretty good major leaguers. And guys who are above average in all three tend to be very good.

David Huff is above average in all three.

Huff is not particularly dominant, and is unlikely to be an ace – either in real life, or in fantasy. However, he is above average in all three important factors. Furthermore, he throws in the low 90s and is very close to the majors.

Drafted in the first round back in 2006, Huff has shot through the Indians minor league system. He performed well in his first professional season in 2007 (he pitched in seven innings in 2006, but I won’t count those), posting a 46/15 K/BB ratio in 59 innings, while allowing only four homers. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 40.1% – but not a tremendous amount.

In 2008, Huff was promoted to double-A and improved in every area. At double-A Akron he posted a K/BB ratio of 62/14 in 65 innings, and induced grounders on 48% of his balls in play. Huff earned a promotion to triple-A, where he pitched in 80 innings, racking up 81 strikeouts while allowing only 15 walks. He even upped his ground ball percentage, inducing grounders on 50.9% of his balls in play. Furthermore, batters swung and missed at 9.8% of Huff’s pitches in triple-A (average at the major league level is around 7.5%).

In 2009, Huff is likely to begin the year in triple-A once again, as the Indians have several pitchers ahead of him on their depth chart, and they probably will not want him to begin accumulating service time on opening day. However, the Indians possess few pitchers who are as good as Huff, and the 24-year-old is almost certainly ready to perform at the major league level. Therefore, he will probably force his way into the Tribe’s rotation within the first month or two of the season.

David Huff doesn’t get a huge amount of strikeouts, or a huge amount of ground balls, but he’s shown the ability to accumulate an above-average amount of both. He’s also shown excellent control, which should be at least above-average at the major league level as well. Huff’s biggest strength is a lack of any pronounced weakness, and this should translate to a solid #3/4 starter in a big league rotation. While he lacks significant upside, Huff should be a nice late-round flier in AL only leagues (or very deep mixed leagues), and could be a nice addition off of the waiver wire in relatively shallow mixed leagues when he gets called up to the majors.

Felix Hernandez’s ERA has improved in every season he’s been in the majors. But don’t let that fool you: he’s not showing signs of improvement and 2008 was perhaps his worst season yet.

Hernandez had a 175/80 K/BB ratio in 200 innings this year, while allowing 17 homers and posting a 3.45 ERA. However, his walk rate was higher than it has ever been before: he allowed 3.59 walks per nine innings, well higher than the 2.51 and 2.83 rates he posted over the last two years. Furthermore, while his strikeout rate remains high, it doesn’t seem to be improving: he struck out 7.85 batters per nine this year, while striking out 7.80 last year and 8.29 in 2006.

Additionally, Hernandez induced fewer swinging strikes than he had in the past. In 2006, batters swung and missed at 8.6% of his pitches, after swinging and missing at 9.7%, 9.0%, and 10.0% over his first three years. This isn’t a significant decrease, but it’s certainly worth noting, especially considering the accompanying rise in his walk rate. He also received fewer called strikes than in the past: 17.1% of his pitches were taken for strikes this year, as compared to 18.9%, 18.3%, and 19.6% over the past three years. This could further attest to diminished control.

Also, Hernandez’s homer rate had been abnormally high over the previous two seasons: in 2006 and 2007, 16.4% and 15.0% of his fly balls had become homers. In 2008 this rate regressed to the mean, and only 9.9% of his fly balls became homers. However, another rather disturbing thing happened: Felix stopped inducing nearly as many ground balls as he had in the past.

In 2008, Hernandez induced grounders on 52.1% of the balls in play against him; in 2007, that was 60.8%, in 2006 it was 57.7%, and in 84 innings in 2005 it was a whopping 67.1%. While 52.1% is still a lot of ground balls, one of Felix’s biggest strengths in the past was his ability to induce as many grounders as, well…just about anyone. Thus, while his HR/FB rate fell almost 7% from 2007, he only allowed three fewer homers in 2008 than he did in 2007 (granted, he also pitched 10 more inning in 2008), thanks to the fact that he allowed 39 more fly balls in 2008.

Finally, it’s well worth noting that while Hernandez’s velocity remained constant, his pitch selection was different in 2008 than in the past. After throwing fastballs 57% of the time in 2006 and 2007, he threw a fastball 65.9% of the time this year. However, after using his slider 20.7% of the time in 2007, he used it only 12.3% of the time in 2008. He also used his curveball less frequently than in the past, throwing it only 8.5% of the time, as compared to 12.4% in 2007 and 20.6% in 2006.

There’s no denying that Felix Hernandez has absolutely filthy stuff. Furthermore, he’s still only 22 years old, and thus has plenty of time to improve. And when that improvement does come, it’s quite possible that it will happen fairly quickly: unlike hitters, pitchers tend to reach new levels rather suddenly, rather than gradually. A good example of this is CC Sabathia – if you look at his stats, you’ll see that he was incredibly consistent from age 20 through age 24, before kicking it into a whole new gear.

Hernandez may find that new level next year, or in five years, and there’s a chance that he may never find that new level at all. However, Hernandez does not appear to be improving so far. In 2008, his walk rate was up, his ground ball rate was down, and he induced fewer swinging strikes. This does not mean that he won’t “figure it out” next season, but it does mean that unless he shows significant improvement next season, his ERA is very likely to rise. Don’t be fooled by the apparent “progress” he’s made by lowering his ERA for three straight seasons: 2008 was perhaps Hernandez’s worst season in the majors. He has ample upside, but be wary of him in 2009.

There’s no denying Joba Chamberlain’s ability.

He posted tremendous numbers this season: in 100 innings (65 as a starter), he struck out 118, walked 39, and allowed only 5 homers, good for an ERA of 2.60 (and a FIP of 2.65). Of course, next season the Yankees plan on using him as a starter. What should you expect?

Well, in his 65 innings as a starter, Joba had a K/BB ratio of 74/25, and allowed only four homers. He has tremendous stuff and has shown the ability to maintain his stuff deep into games, suggesting that the numbers he posted during his starts this year could be indicative of his true ability. In other words: yeah, he’s this good.

Given 200 healthy innings, Joba is a decent bet to have the highest strikeout rate of any AL starter. He will probably walk a fair amount too, but will get so many strikeouts that he will limit the balls put in play, and thus limit the amount of hits he allows. Furthermore, Joba has shown the ability to induce a lot of ground balls – 52% of his balls in play were grounders this year – thereby helping him limit the amount of homers he allows. In fact, Joba’s combination of a high number of strikeouts and a high number of ground balls suggests that he may not allow more than 10-15 homers over 200 innings.
Thus, over 200 healthy innings, it’s fair to say that Joba could be one of the best pitchers in the American Leaugue – and one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball as well. Of course, the real question is: can Joba stay healthy for 200 innings?

And the simplest answer is: probably not.

Joba pitched in 100 innings this year and 112 in 2007. He has battled numerous issues during his short professional career, and the Yankees have handled him with great care. I expect that to ease up somewhat next season. While the Yankees are unlikely to be reckless with their star righty, I think that they are going to let him loose on the AL, and basically hope he holds up. They are likely to put him in the starting rotation on opening day and keep him there fore the whole season. They will certainly monitor his health and his innings count closely, but they probably won’t be sending him to the bullpen any time soon.

It’s quite possible that Joba ends up on the DL at some point during the year – the Yankees will surely take precautionary measures if Joba feels a twinge anywhere, and a stint on the DL could also help keep his innings total under control.

Whether you should draft Joba is going to depend almost entirely on how other people value him. It’s possible that people will get enamored with his upside and ignore the significant risk, causing them to take Joba too early in drafts, or pay too much money for him. But it’s equally possible (and perhaps more likely) that the opposite happens: people think he’s simply too risky, and he slides to the middle/middle-late rounds of the draft. If this happens, you should snatch him.

You probably don’t want your pitching staff hinging on Joba Chamberlain. If you do decide to draft him, you’ll probably want to couple him with some very-low-risk, medium reward pitchers such as Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, or even a guy like Andy Sonnanstine. You want to hedge the inevitable risk associated with Joba, so that if he does get hurt you don’t have the worst pitching staff in the league. However, a pitching staff with a few low risk guys who only offer medium reward, coupled with one or two high-risk high-reward guys like Chamberlain makes a lot of sense.

I’m usually extremely wary of pitchers who are injury risks. The thing is, there are very, very few pitchers who can be as good as Joba Chamberlain is when he’s healthy. Even if Joba only pitches 120 or 140 innings this year, those innings are likely going to be so dominant as to make him quite valuable. And if he is able to approach 180 innings (or more), he could be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. That’s a risk worth taking.

Chad Billingsley is very good.

In 200 innings in 2008, Billingsley posted a K/BB ratio of 201/80 and had a 3.14 ERA. His 3.35 FIP was 11th lowest of all starters in baseball. And he managed such a low ERA while allowing a BABIP of .313. Billingsley did have a somewhat-low HR/FB, as only 8.4% of his fly balls became homers, but this is not much lower than league average.

In addition to notching a strikeout per inning, Billingsley also managed to induce ground balls in 49% of his balls in play. This is quite a rise from 2007, when 41% of his balls in play were grounders. However, in 2006 his groundball rate was 48.2%, and it’s likely that he will be able to maintain a high GB rate in the future, even if it comes down somewhat from 49%.

Billingsley induced swinging strikes on 10.2% of his pitches, and earned called strikes on 19.3%. Billingsley’s swinging strike percentage is probably for real – he has absolutely filthy stuff. However, his high called strike percentage is somewhat surprising – league average for called strikes is 17.1%, and only ten pitchers had a higher called strike percentage than Billingsley. This is somewhat surprising, as Billingsley didn’t have good control this season, walking 80 hitters.

Thus, it’s questionable whether Billingsley can get as many called strikes next year as he did in 2008. If he gets fewer called strikes, he’s probably going to get fewer strikeouts, too.

However, even though Billingsley walked a high amount of hitters this year, he actually threw a league average amount of balls (36.3%). Thus, the high walk total is somewhat surprising, and seems likely to come down next season.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Billingsley’s innings total increased by a lot last season. In 2007 he threw 147 innings, while in 2008 he threw 212 (between the regular season and post-season). This puts him at risk for the so-called “Verducci Effect,”, named after Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci who found that young pitchers who have a big increase in innings pitched from one season to the next are at risk of injury or performance decline in the following season. Billingsley certainly fits the bill: only 23 years old, Billingsley threw 65 more innings than he did last year.

However, I believe that Billingsley may be less risky than other young pitchers. In addition to not having any injury history, Billingsley has also demonstrated the ability to withstand large – but not too large – workloads over the last few years. Thus, while Billingsley is certainly at risk of being effected by the Verducci Effect, I think his risk may not be too pronounced.

Next season, Billingsley may strike out a few less batters than he did this year, but he should be able to maintain one of the highest strikeout rates for starting pitchers. It’s reasonable to expect his walk rate to also go down, as he didn’t throw that many balls this year, despite his high amount of walks; however, his walk rate will probably remain rather high. He could give up a few less hits next year, as his .313 BABIP is likely to regress to the mean, thus helping his WHIP. Overall, Chad Billingsley has some risk of falling victim to the Verducci Effect, but has among the highest ceilings of any pitcher in fantasy baseball. He may not have the same name-recognition as some other similarly-talented pitchers, and thus has the potential to be somewhat underrated on draft day.

Scott Baker is a slightly better version of Kevin Slowey. And, as you know, Slowey is pretty good.

The similarities between these two Twins righties are striking. Take a look:

If you recall from my article about Slowey, I think that his overall numbers may underrate his actual abilities, as he appeared to show substantial improvement during the season. Still, Baker appears to be a bit better than Slowey: a few more strikeouts (although, again, I think that Slowey’s strikeout rate could rise next year), and fewer balls, even though he walked more batters.

The fact that Baker induced swinging strikes in over 10% of his pitches is an excellent sign – league average for starters is around 7.5%. Baker, like Slowey, is a fly ball pitcher, and therefore will be prone to homers. However, Baker should strike out enough batters to reduce the overall number of fly balls he allows, and he walks few enough so that he minimizes the damage when the he allows a homer.

In 2008, Baker posted a 3.45 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. His BABIP was completely normal (.290), although considering that the Twins were well-below-average defensively (they ranked 27th in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), perhaps Baker was a little lucky on balls in play. Baker posted a rather high LOB% of 78.7% – this should regress in the future, but it probably won’t fall more than a few percentage points. His homer rate could rise a few percentage points as well (8.5% of his fly balls left the park), but it shouldn’t rise too much.

Overall, the Scott Baker from 2008 is a very reasonable facsimile of what we should expect in the future. He should post an ERA under 4, a WHIP under 1.20, and strike out around 7 or 7.5 batters per nine innings (over 200 innings, that’s 140-150 strikeouts). Furthermore, Baker is pretty low-risk, as far as pitchers go. The injury he sustained in 2008 had nothing to do with his arm/elbow/shoulder (he strained a groin), and is unlikely to recur.

Scott Baker is the exact type of pitcher that can he had in the middle of most drafts, and is probably better than many other pitchers taken around the same time. Like Slowey, Baker is very low-risk, and the reward is fairly high.

Would you believe that 2008 was Dave Bush’s worst season?

On the surface, this might not seem so. After all, Bush posted the best ERA of his career – 4.18 in 185 innings – along with a nice 1.18 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Certainly not the numbers of a fantasy ace, but well worth having on your team (considering that you probably got him for free from the waiver wire).

However, Bush was worse last year than he had been in the past, even though he had posted higher ERAs in the past. Let me explain.

Before 2008, Bush posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.41, and 5.12 from 2005-2007. However, his FIP was better than his ERA in 2006 and 2007, and Bush looked like the type of player who was primed for a breakout – although he didn’t punch many batters out, he limited his walks and got a fair share of grounders. Bush was hampered by a high HR/FB rate, a high BABIP (.327 in 2007) and a low LOB%.

And then, in 2008, the breakout came. Of course, it wasn’t really a “breakout” in the sense of Bush becoming a frontline starter, but rather Bush becoming a decent starter – a breakout for him. But even though Bush posted solid numbers in 2008, it appears that his “breakout” is actually more luck – just good luck, this time.

Dave Bush’s .245 BABIP was the lowest of any pitcher who pitched at least 150 innings this year. For those of you who are still skeptical of a pitcher’s inability to control BABIP, Bush is a perfect example: his BABIP was .327 just a year ago, and he had some people wondering whether he was simply more “hittable” because he didn’t have great stuff. And yet this year, he had the lowest BABIP of any starter in the game.

Needless to say, this BABIP will almost certainly regress in 2009, and Bush will allow more hits as a result.

However, the other factors that caused optimism about Bush – namely, his ground ball rate and his walk rate – got worse in 2008. Bush allowed more than 40% of his balls in play to be fly balls for the first time in his career (excluding his short stint in 2004). Fly balls left the yard at approximately a league average rate (12% of his fly balls became homers), but Bush allowed a whopping 23 homers in only 168 innings due to the sheer number of fly balls that he surrendered.

Furthermore, his control, which had been one of his biggest strengths, declined. After walking 1.91, 1.63, and 2.13 hitters per nine innings from 2005 through 2007, Bush allowed 2.38 walks in 2008. This may not seem like a big increase, but it’s a big deal for a guy like Bush, who doesn’t get many strikeouts and relies on his defense. The more free passes a low-strikeout pitcher allows, the worse he is going to be.

Finally, using some of the handy stats over at Stat Corner, we can see that Bush induced fewer swinging strikes in 2008 (7.5%) than he did in 06 and 07 (8.7% and 9.1%, respectively). This is not a good sign in and of itself, but it’s even worse when coupled with a rise in his walks. Additionally, Bush threw far more balls in 2008 (36.2% of his pitches were out of the strike zone) than he did in 06 and 07 (33.4% and 34.1%, respectively). That doesn’t bode well at all.

Dave Bush is likely to be worse – perhaps a lot worse – next season than he was in 2008. Let someone else make the mistake of overvaluing him on draft day.

Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?

Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.

All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.

Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.

Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.

Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.

Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.

If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.

Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.

Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.

Is Hanley Ramirez the next 40/40 player?

In his third full year in the majors, Hanley Ramirez hit .301/.400/.540 with 33 homers and 35 steals. And yet, there’s reason to believe that next year, Ramirez could be even better.

First of all, Hanley ran less this year than before – he attempted only 47 steals, as compared to 66 and 65 attempts in the previous two years. Is this a case of Hanley understanding that the season is long and pacing himself, or is this flukey? If Ramirez’s stolen base attempts fall somewhere in between his first two years and last year, he should end up with at least 40 steals.

Secondly, Hanley struggled against lefties last year, posting a .790 OPS. However, he improved drastically against righties, posting a .983 OPS. This is quite a change from the previous two seasons, when he posted an OPS nearly 200 points higher against left-handed pitching.

Chances are, Hanley’s improvement against righties is relatively real, but his numbers against lefties are a sample size fluke. If he hits lefties better in 2009 – which he should – his overall numbers should improve.

Additionally, Hanley improved his power a lot last season, but some of this was obscured by the fact that the number of fly balls he hit was down. In fact, 19.1% of his fly balls became homers, as compared to 12.7% in 2007 and 9.7% in 2006. However, he hit fly balls on only 36.7% of his balls in play, as compared to 41.9% in 2007.

Also, Hanley struck out more often in 2008 (perhaps as a result of trying to hit for more power), striking out in over 20% of his at bats, as compared to less than 15% in 2007.

In order for Hanley to hit more homers in 2009 than he did in 2008, he has to either strike out less or hit more fly balls. Chances are the increase in the amount of fly balls becoming homers is for real – it’s certainly not unusual for a toolsy young player to increase his power output around age 24. It’s quite reasonable to assume that at least one of the previous conditions will occur, and perhaps both, thus making 40 homers well within Ramirez’s reach.

Certainly, a lot of things have to go right for Hanley Ramirez to hit 40 homers and steal 40 bases. But it’s a very possible for him to reach both milestones, along with hitting (at least) .300 and playing shortstop. Hanley Ramirez should be a first-round pick in most drafts, and may even deserve to be the #2 pick in your draft (and there may even be an argument for taking him first overall), as he carries very little risk and a tremendous amount of upside.

Power hitters playing in Texas are a fantasy player’s dream. Chris Davis certainly fits the bill.

Throughout his minor league career, all Davis has done is mash. Despite being young for his level at virtually every stop, Davis has a career minor league line of .302/.357/.595, with 75 homers in 275 games. Last year, Davis got the call to the big leagues and didn’t disappoint, hitting .285/.331/.549 with the Rangers, and smacking 17 homers in only 80 games.

Davis is a hulking slugger who swings quite hard, and, not surprisingly, strikes out a lot. However, Davis managed to keep his strikeouts to a reasonable level in the minors (again, despite being young for the league) without sacrificing power. Thus, he was able to hit over .300 in the minors.

While Davis may not ever hit .300 in the majors (at least not next year), don’t expect Davis to fall into the low batting average category occupied by the likes of Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. Davis hit .285 as a 22-year-old in the majors, an impressive feat for any 22-year-old, but even more impressive for a guy who also slugged nearly .600! While he did strike out in 30% of his plate appearances, he also hit the ball extremely hard when he made contact, posting a line-drive percentage of 25.5%. Thus, his corresponding .353 BABIP – while certainly very high – is not out of line with expectations. This line-drive percentage is unlikely to remain quite so high, and his BABIP may fall somewhat, but it’s not unreasonable to expect Davis to maintain a rather high BABIP next year as well.

Furthermore, Davis’s power is completely legitimate, and very rare to find. His uppercut swing produces more fly balls than ground balls – an excellent sign for a power hitter – and it’s simply incredibly rare to find a young hitter with such a track record of power. Davis hit 20.5% of his fly balls for homers, and there’s no reason that this can’t continue next year, given his amazing raw power. Furthermore, Davis plays in one of the best home ballparks for power – especially left-handed power – in baseball, which should further increase his raw numbers.

Finally, it looks as if Davis will qualify at third base next season (as well as first base), thereby increasing his value even more. He’s surrounded by an excellent lineup, and should have plenty of players on base in front of him, leading to a lot of RBI.

Chris Davis is a perfect storm of exciting potential: he has a stellar track record, a ridiculous amount of power, an excellent lineup around him, and a home park perfectly suited for his abilities. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Davis could be a top-5 fantasy third baseman in 2009.