Can you expect more from Sizemore?

This Grady Sizemore kid is pretty good. And he might get even better.

Sizemore is going to be 26 years old next season – in other words, he’s just now beginning to enter his prime. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the American League, and a thought that you should keep in mind in your draft: Grady isn’t even in his prime yet.

Sizemore has managed to improve in a few aspects of his game every season he’s been in the majors. In his first full season in 2005, he had an excellent season (especially for a 22-year old!), but he hit fly balls only 31% of the time and was caught stealing 31% of the time. He also only walked in 7.5% of his plate appearances.

In 2006, Sizemore stopped getting caught stealing as often and walked 10.6% of the time. He also hit fly balls on 46.9% of his balls in play. However, he only stole 22 bases and struck out 23.4% of the time.

In 2007, Sizemore again upped his walk rate by over 3%, raising it to 13.9%. He also continued his efficient thievery on the base paths, and stole more often – he stole 33 bases in 43 attempts. He once again continued to strike out at a high rate, and he lost a few homers (he hit only 24).

In 2008, Sizemore’s skills really began to come together. Sizemore stole 38 bases while only getting caught five times. He maintained a walk rate over 13%, but reduced his strikeout rate from 24.7% to 20.5%. He also topped 30 homers for the first time in his career, smacking 33 long balls. Sizemore had always been a patient hitter, but in 2008 he swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in his career, only 41.8%. He also posted the highest contact rate of his career, all while maintaining his high walk rate and improving his power.

What does this mean for the future? Well, I’m admittedly bullish (full disclosure: I was born and raised in Cleveland and remain an Indians fan), but I think I have just cause: Grady Sizemore has been great throughout his career, he’s entering his prime, and his statistical track record suggests that he’s just now starting to put it all together.

Sizemore stole the most bases of his career last year (and was successful in 88% of his attempts) and hit the most homers of his career. He also struck out at the lowest rate of his career while maintaining a walk rate of over 13%. He continued to be selective at the plate, and made more contact when he did choose to swing. The only bad part of his 2008 campaign was his relatively low batting average – .268, to be exact. It seems counterintuitive that his BA would fall in a year in which he improved strikeout rate. Sure enough, Sizemore’s BABIP last year was a career-low .291 – this after posting BABIPs of .334, .342, and .335 over the last three years. And for those wondering, Sizemore’s 19.4% line-drive percentage was only a little lower than his career LD of 21%.

If Sizemore is able to post the same strikeout and walk rates in 2009 as he did in 2008, his batting average is likely to rise thanks to an improved BABIP. But as we know, Sizemore may not simply post the same stats again. He’s managed to improve in one or two aspects of his game virtually every season in the majors, and I’ll say it again: he’s just now entering his prime.

While it’s possible that Sizemore could experience some backslide in 2009, it’s far more likely that Sizemore will maintain the gains he’s made: namely, increased power, increased efficiency on the basepaths, and a reduced strikeout rate – and it’s certainly possible that he’ll further improve in some area as well. For example, although he has made strides in his hitting against left-handed pitching, Sizemore’s line against lefties in 2008 was a mere .224/.347/.388. If Sizemore improves his batting average and/or slugging percentage against lefties – even a little – his overall line will receive a boost.

Grady Sizemore is clearly a first round pick in most drafts. Just keep in mind: as good as he was in 2008, he has a legitimate chance to be even better in 2009.





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