The Indians recently signed Kerry Wood to a 2-year deal with a vesting option for a third year. What does this mean for your fantasy team in 2009?

The headline says it all: Wood was excellent last year. He posted a 3.26 ERA, but that came with a 2.32 FIP and a 3.16 tRA* (which translates to a 2.76 ERA). Wood had an excellent 84/18 K/BB ratio in 66 innings, and allowed a .331 BABIP, which is likely to regress. Wood did benefit from a lower-than-normal home run rate, as only 6.2% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will likely be higher in 2009.

Wood’s statistics also may suffer from a switch from the National League over to the American League. However, Wood was so fantastic in 2008 that his ERA should remain low once again in 09, even in the more difficult league. Furthermore, Wood will be locked in to closer duties on what should be a very good Indians team, thus getting him a lot of save opportunities.

The one knock with Wood is his fragility. There’s no denying his injury history, and no one knows how he’ll hold up as a reliever for a second straight year. However, Wood did manage 66 innings in 2008 and escaped the season virtually unscathed. Wood’s injury concerns may be overblown by other people in your league, perhaps driving his value downward.

Wood looks like he’ll be a solid value in fantasy leagues, available after the top tier of closers have been taken. He should rack up saves as well as strikeouts, and should help you in ERA and WHIP as well. You will have to be vigilant about any injury concerns, and you might be well advised to pick up Wood’s likely replacement (probably Jensen Lewis) at the first sign of an injury. If you are able to do that, you minimize the damage that a Wood injury would inflict upon your team, while reaping the benefits that a healthy Kerry Wood will bring.

Kerry Wood is a good bet to provide excellent value for you, and finding closers at a value price is one of the most important skills a fantasy player can have.

Javier Vazquez has been a perpetual disappointment.

As Eric Seidman (and many others) has covered, Vazquez’s controllable skills have never quite equated to the run prevention that many analysts believe he is capable of. 2009 begins a new chapter, as Vazquez will be a member of the Atlanta Braves.

In 2008, Vazquez posted a 4.67 ERA, along with a 200/61 K/BB ratio in 208 innings. The move away from US Cellular Field and to the National League should benefit him, and he’s due for some regression to the mean as well.

Vazquez allowed a .328 BABIP in 2008. He’s consistently allowed higher-than-usual BABIPs, but last year was even higher – his career BABIP is .310. Additionally, he stranded only 68% of the runners who reached base, lower than his career mark of ~70%. Vazquez’s stuff appears unchanged from years past, and his velocity is the same as it ever was.

In the National League, Vazquez could see his already-high strikeout rate rise even more, thanks to inferior NL hitters and getting to face the pitcher’s spot three times per game. Vazquez will also benefit from being out of US Cellular Field, where it was very easy to hit home runs. Vazquez has allowed slightly more fly balls than ground balls throughout his career, and should benefit from this change of scenery. Furthermore, the Braves are likely to have a solid defense behind him, which should help his BABIP even more. They are also likely to be a much better team than they were in 2008, helping Vazquez’s win total.

By this point, it would be silly to say that Vazquez has been consistently unlucky throughout his career, even though his ERA is almost always higher than his FIP. However, we should also note that Vazquez has pitched in poor circumstances for several years in a row – he’s pitched in hitters’ parks in Chicago and Arizona, he struggled in the limelight of New York, and he’s rarely ever played in front of a good defense during his career. He played for a manager in Chicago who called him out in the media and questioned his dedication. While it may be unlikely that Vazquez has indeed been the victim of consistently bad luck, we musn’t overlook the possibility entirely.

In 2009, Vazquez is probably going to post similar stats as he has throughout his entire career. But there’s a chance that Vazquez finally makes good on his immense potential, thanks to pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment for the first time in six years. He will rack up the strikeouts regardless, and regression to the mean should help lower his ERA. Vazquez has been incredibly durable and should be an excellent value in 2009 – let others undervalue him thanks to his artificially high ERA in 2008.

So…when exactly is Rickie Weeks going to break out?

Weeks has a tremendous amount of tools and has shown flashes of brilliance during his time in the majors. However, Weeks doesn’t appear to be improving.

Weeks hit .234/.342/.398 this year, following up a 2007 in which he hit .235/.374/.433. He also added 14 homers and 19 steals (in 24 attempts).

The low batting average is a source of frustration to many fantasy owners. Both last year and this year, Weeks suffered from a bit of bad luck: according to my new-fangled BABIP model, Weeks’s expected BABIPs over the last two years have been .321 and .294, while his actual BABIPs have been .289 and .280, respectively. However, in 2006, his actual BABIP exceeded his xBABIP, so there’s no reason to think that the system is underrating Weeks.

However, even adjusting for his lost hits doesn’t bring Weeks’ batting average much above .250. He did manage to lower his strikeout rate this year – he struck out in 24.2% of his at bats this year, as compared to 28.4% last year, but the reason for this appears to be simply that he was making contact with more bad pitches, rather than becoming more choosy at the plate. He actually increased the number of pitches out of the strike zone that he swung at in 2008. Opposing pitchers took advantage of this by throwing Weeks a steady diet of offspeed pitches – just over 44% of the pitches Weeks saw were offspeed.

Although he possesses good raw power, Weeks has still not translated that power into large numbers of home runs. Part of the problem is that he hits many of his balls in play on the ground – only 38.7% of his balls in play were fly balls this year. This, combined with a high number of strikeouts, limits the amount of balls that have the chance to leave the park.

Finally, Weeks is getting to the point where he’s not young anymore. He turned 26 last September, and has yet to make good on his considerable talent. The raw talent is still there, but the chances of him capitalizing on that grow slimmer every year. He still has the chance to become an elite offensive second basemen, but there is no statistical evidence that he’s improving. Draft Weeks expecting similar numbers next season – perhaps a few more homers and a slightly higher batting average. There is a non-zero chance that Weeks could break out, but the chances are not great.

John Lackey’s ERA was the highest it has been since 2004, and his FIP was even higher. Should you be worried?

No.

In 2008, Lackey posted a 3.75 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. However, much of this can be attributed to an extremely high HR/FB. In fact, 15.3% of Lackey’s fly balls became homers last year, as compared to 7.3%, 5.7%, 6.6% and 9.0% over the previous four years, respectively. Lackey’s career HR/FB is 9.3% – just a tick under league average, and there’s no reason to think he suddenly became more homer-prone in 2008.

Lackey’s strikeout rate remained identical to his 2007 rate (and remember, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 2007), as he struck out 7.16 batters per nine in 08 and 7.19 per nine in 07. His walk rate also remained the same: 2.20 walks per nine in 08, 2.09 per nine in 07. Both his strikeout and walk rate have been trending down since 2005, and it appears that they have stabilized over the last two years.

Lackey’s batted ball data from 2008 was essentially in line with his career averages: batters hit line drives 20.2% of the time, ground balls 45.1% of the time and fly balls 34.7%. His career averages in these categories are 21.2% LD, 43.0% GB and 34.7% FB. Additionally, his pitch velocity and selection appear to be unchanged.

If you want to find something to be concerned about, it is worth noting that the amount of swinging strikes that Lackey has induced has gone down for four years running. In 2005, batters swung and missed at 10.2% of Lackey’s pitches; in 06 that fell to 9.7%, then 8.8% in 07 and 8.5% this year. This is still above average (league average for starters is 7.5%), but the downward trend is worrisome.

Overall, however, that’s the only warning sign for 2009, and it’s a relatively minor one at that. Lackey had a high LOB% in 2008 – he stranded 80.2% of the runners who reached base – and that number should regress towards his career average of 73.3%. However, that regression will likely be negated by the regression he should experience in his home run rate as well.

Lackey’s ERA probably won’t be 3.01 like it was in 2007, but it’s unlikely to be any higher than the 3.75 of 2008. A return to his 2005-2006 level of ERA is most likely. Lackey’s biggest problem may be the team around him, as I believe the Angels are in for a (perhaps serious) decline in 2009, one that could leave Lackey’s win total wanting. That, and his relatively low strikeout rate, probably prevent him from being a top-10 fantasy starter, but his durability and general skills probably leave him comfortably in the 11-20 range.

He’s still a very good pitcher, but his name recognition may slightly outpace his performance (even with an expected regression in HR/FB), perhaps leaving him a little overvalued in some leagues.

Michael Bowden had a fantastic season in 2008. He began the year at double-A Portland, where he posted a 101/24 K/BB ratio in 104 innings. He also allowed only five homers. He was then promoted to triple-A, where he put up a 29/5 ratio in 40 innings, while allowing five homers. On the surface, those are some excellent numbers.

But if you look beyond the surface, you’ll see that Bowden was even better than his overall numbers suggested. Bowden’s tRA* (which can be found over at Stat Corner) at double-A was 3.20. That’s the best tRA* of any starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year, at any level.

And yes, the Eastern League (in which Portland plays) is generally pretty favorable to pitchers. But still: Bowden’s tRA* was over 25% better than the next closest pitcher in the Eastern League. Bowden’s led the league in tRA* by a larger margin than any other pitcher in the minors led his league. In other words, relative to his own league, Bowden was by far the most dominant starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, Bowden showed no visible home/road splits, nor any lefty/righty splits. To be sure, Bowden’s raw stats were enhanced by a .247 BABIP and a low HR/FB; however, tRA* takes these things into account, by ignoring BABIP (instead focusing on what types of batted balls a pitcher gets), and regressing HR/FB. Therefore, while Bowden’s overall stats may represent a semblance of good luck (low BABIP, for example), his tRA* is luck-free.

Finally, Bowden is not a “trick” pitcher – his velocity and stuff backs up his stats, suggesting that he could find continued success at the big league level. In his one start at the major league level, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he showed four pitches: a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Bowden will be able to have success in the future. However, using tRA* gives us a better understanding of the pitcher Bowden was in 2008, and therefore gives us a better insight into what kind of pitcher he can be in 2009 and beyond: namely, a top-tier starter.

The Red Sox already have an impressive array of young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz (who I still believe will be good) are all under 30 years old. Bowden can get lost in the shuffle, but he was the very best starting pitcher in all of the minor leagues in 2008, despite being just 21 years old.

Of course, the Red Sox’s tremendous amount of pitching talent means that Bowden may not make too many starts in the majors in 2009. The Red Sox will carefully monitor his innings total – he pitched 150 innings last year, after totaling 142 innings in 2007 and 112 innings in 2006. The Red Sox probably won’t want him to exceed 160-170 innings in 2009.

However, there may be room for Bowden at the major league level: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Wakefield are all ahead of him, but Buchholz may have fallen behind him, Masterson may be a full-time reliever and Wakefield is very risky. Bowden has demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch – and be successful – at the major league level, and if given the chance to make some starts in 2009, he could be quite a steal for your fantasy team.

Finally given the chance to play every day in 2008, the 23-year-old Matt Kemp had quite a season: he hit .290/.340/.459 with 18 homers and 35 steals. Kemp sported a very high BABIP for the second season in a row, but all indications are that Kemp should be able to maintain this high BABIP in the future.

Kemp posted a .363 BABIP this year, thanks in large part to the fact that he hit line drives 23% of the time. In fact, Kemp has posted consistently high BABIPs throughout his career: his 2007 BABIP was an absurd .417, while his BABIP in the minors has ranged from .345 to .417. Thus, while Kemp’s BABIP is quite high, there’s no reason to think that he can’t maintain this level of BABIP going forward. Thus, while his .290 batting average may seem a bit high upon first glance at his BABIP, there’s a very good chance that it represents his true ability, rather than a fluke.

Kemp has always been young for his level throughout the minors, and indeed was only 23 last year. Any 23-year-old that can slug .459 is a heck of a player, and is likely to develop more power in the coming years. Given that Kemp is very toolsy, while 18 homers is pretty good, there’s reason to expect increased power output in the future. There’s certainly no guarantee that Kemp will hit more homers in 2009 than he did in 2008, but it’s fairly likely.

Furthermore, Kemp’s 35 stolen bases are extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He was caught 11 times, and Joe Torre has shown a willingness to turn him loose on the basepaths that he will likely demonstrate once again in 2009. Kemp didn’t slow down in the second half of the season, and therefore it’s unlikely that he will run less in 09 than he did in 08.

Finally, it appears that Kemp has locked up a full-time position in the Dodgers outfield. Going in to 2008, there was a lot of consternation amongst folks on the internet about how the Dodgers’ outfield situation would play out. It was clear to many that Kemp should be playing every day, but some questioned whether Joe Torre would bench Kemp in favor of established veterans like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones. That didn’t happen, and Kemp responded with an excellent season. Kemp’s production in 2008 makes it quite unlikely that Torre will bench him for an extended period of time in 2009, so Kemp’s playing time is likely secured even if he goes in to a slump.

Although I was concerned at first about his BABIP, there’s every reason to think that Kemp will be able to maintain a high BABIP in the future. If he cuts down on the strikeouts (he struck out in over 25% of his at bats in 2008), his batting average could rise even further. He’s a good bet to attempt at least 40 stolen bases, and there’s reason to believe that he could produce even more homers next year. Although the secret is out about Kemp, I believe that many people may not recognize just how good he could be, and therefore he may be undervalued on draft day.

Nick Swisher was quite a disappointment in 2008.

After being traded from Oakland to Chicago, many (including myself) predicted improvement from Swisher, thanks to his friendly offensive environment on the South Side. Instead, Swisher produced a miserable season, hitting .219/.332/.410 with 24 homers. He did benefit from playing in US Cellular Park, but that benefit was negated by a terrible performance in games on the road: Swisher hit .247/.361/.517 with 19 homers at home, but only .189/.301/.294 with five homers on the road.

Recently, the White Sox traded him to the Yankees, where he is currently slated to be their everyday first baseman. And I think the Yankees are in for a pleasant surprise, as Swisher is quite likely to rebound in 2009.

Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 was very low: .251, to be exact. In the previous three seasons, Swisher’s BABIP had been .308, .287 and .266, respectively. However, Swisher actually hit the most line drives of his career in 2008, hitting liners 20.9% of the time. While he did strike out a lot, his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate, as was his walk rate. Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck.

In a study I recently co-authored, I found that Swisher was one the unluckiest players on balls in play in 2008. I found his expected BABIP to be .294, much higher than his actual BABIP. If we credit Swisher for his lost hits, his 2008 line becomes .249/.356/.447 – not much different from his career line of .244/.354/.441 (and his career line includes his miserable 2008 stats).

In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.

Swisher is never going to hit for a very high batting average, but he’s quite unlikely to hit .219 once again. Even though he is no longer playing in the friendly confines of US Cellular Field, Swisher should be good for 25-30 homers (assuming he plays every day), and should put up a decent number of RBI and runs scored, thanks to the other players in the Yankees lineup.

Swisher is not a fantasy superstar, but he’s significantly better than he showed in 2008, and is therefore very likely to be underrated. Don’t hesitate to take him late in drafts, and don’t be surprised when he produces like he did from 2005-2007.

As you’ll certainly notice if you read my articles on this site, I have an affinity for mediocre pitchers. Or rather, I have an interest for non-ace pitchers who aren’t amazing, but are solid.

Unless you’re playing in a very shallow league, non-ace pitchers can make or break your season. Everyone can identify the CC Sabathias and Josh Becketts of the world. However, pitching is difficult to assess and predict; there are many pitchers who come “out of nowhere” to have respectable seasons. If you’re able to identify these players, you can get some excellent values on your pitchers, and focus your earlier-round picks on safer-bet offensive players.

Furthermore, even pitching staffs with aces at the front need solid pitchers behind them. Often times, you can get a pitcher in 15th round who pitches as well as someone drafted in the 8th round – you just need to know where to look.

And for those of you play in truly deep leagues, and/or AL- or NL-only leagues, you often find yourself stuck with awful pitchers because you simply need to fill those spots. Sometimes the best pitching staffs aren’t the ones that are filled with aces, but rather are the staffs that don’t have any pitchers like Carlos Silva bringing down the rest of the staff.

With that in mind, let’s discuss Mitch Talbot.

Who?

Mitch Talbot, a 25-year-old left-hander in the Rays organization, may have had one of the least noticed excellent seasons by any minor league pitcher this year. Talbot is understandably overshadowed in an organization with a ridiculous amount of pitching talent. That said, he also had a very good season.

In 161 innings in triple-A, Talbot posted a 3.86 ERA – solid, but not awe-inspiring. Of course, we know that ERA is far from the best predictor for a pitcher’s future success – especially for minor leaguers. Talbot also tallied 141 strikeouts and allowed only 35 walks – an excellent ratio. Furthermore, Talbot induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, thus leading to him allowing only nine homers. In fact, in 684 career innings in the minors, Talbot has allowed a mere 44 homers. That’s excellent.

Furthermore, Talbot’s 3.86 ERA is misleading due to the fact that he had a very high BABIP this season – .326, to be precise. That’s a lot higher than we’d expect, even allowing for the fact that as a ground-ball pitcher, Talbot will allow a few more hits than a fly-ball pitcher (of course, these hits are likely to only be singles).

While Talbot is excellent against left-handed batters, he’s not bad against righties either, suggesting that he won’t necessarily need to be moved to the bullpen. Furthermore, he improved throughout the season – in the last two months, he struck out 64 batters in 64 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, so we can’t read too much into it, but it’s very possible that Talbot was continually improving throughout the season.

Of course, Talbot’s biggest problem at the moment is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s no higher than seventh on their starting pitching depth chart (and is in danger of being passed by Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson). However, odds are pretty good that the Rays will deal Edwin Jackson (or perhaps move him to the bullpen) to allow David Price into the rotation. Furthermore, starting pitchers are fragile – should any Rays pitcher get hurt (I’m looking at you, Scott), Talbot may be called up to fill in.

Finally, there is a very real chance that Talbot will be dealt within the next year, as the Rays look to shore up right field, designated hitter, and their bullpen.

Keep your eye very closely on Mitch Talbot. He’s ready to contribute to a major league team, and if he finds himself in a position to start every fifth day for any team, you may have yourself a late-round steal or excellent waiver wire pickup.

Think of the 25 best starting pitchers from 2008.

Undoubtedly, you’ve thought of such mainstays as CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb. You’ve probably thought of the guys who came out of nowhere to have fantastic seasons, like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster. You’ve thought of the youngsters who burst onto the scene, like Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez and Chad Billingsley.

But did you think of Andy Sonnanstine?

Sonnanstine had the 22nd best tRA of any starting pitcher this year. He also posted a 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and racked up 124 strikeouts (against only 37 walks) in 193 innings. Sonnanstine’s lack of strikeouts prevent him from becoming a fantasy ace, but he’s still an excellent pitcher whose ERA should have been even lower this year.

Sonnanstine suffered from a .312 BABIP this year, despite playing in front of one of the league’s best defenses. The Rays defense should be above-average once again next year, and Sonnanstine’s BABIP is likely to regress to the .270-.290 range, which should help to lower both his WHIP and his ERA.

In fact, Sonnanstine posted a 3.91 FIP this year – over 40 points lower than his actual ERA. Part of this difference can be blamed on Sonnanstine’s poor luck on balls in play; however, Sonnanstine also suffered from a very low left-on-base percentage.

Sonnanstine managed to strand only 66.3% of the runners who reached base against him – the fifth-worst mark of any qualifying starting pitcher. Not surprisingly, Sonnanstine pitched poorly with runners on base, allowing a .286/.314/.459 line with men on base, as compared to a .271/.310/.437 line with no one on base. This is not a huge difference; however, unfortunately for Sonnanstine, he allowed hits in the worst situations: with the bases loaded, batters were 3-for-6 with two doubles against him; with men at second and third, batters were 4-for-6 with a homer; and batters hit .345 against him when a runner was at third with less than two outs.

Even though he gave up more hits in “clutch” situations than regular situations, Sonnanstine struck out the same percentage of batters he faced with runners aboard as when no one was on base. In other words, Sonnanstine’s stuff doesn’t appear to have declined with men on base. Rather, he simply gave up a disproportionate amount of hits in the worst situations.

If you believe that this is evidence of Sonnanstine not having the mental fortitude to pitch well in important situations, I will point out that Sonnanstine allowed 0 earned runs in 13 innings in consecutive starts against the Red Sox in September, and he posted a 4.24 ERA in three postseason starts. He’s clearly unfazed by pressure situations. Therefore, there’s no reason to think that Sonnanstine’s ability to pitch with men on base is any different than in other situations. Rather, Sonnanstine’s poor showing with runners on base is likely due to random fluctuation.

Sonnanstine pitched quite well this year and experienced a rather large amount of bad luck. In fact, the 41 point difference between Sonnanstine’s ERA and FIP was the 12th largest discrepancy of qualifying starting pitchers. If that luck regresses next season, he could lower his ERA and WHIP even further, while continuing to rack up wins thanks to the strong team around him. While Sonnanstine will never strike out a ton of hitters, he will make up for this by contributing in three other categories, and is likely to be undervalued on draft day.

Another season, another sub-3.00 ERA for Johan Santana. Business as usual, right? Wrong. Fantasy players should be very wary of Johan in 2009.

Johan’s 2.53 ERA in 2008 was the lowest of his illustrious career. However, his 1.15 WHIP was his highest since 2002, and although he struck out 206 batters, his strikeout rate was the lowest it had been since 2001. Furthermore, his walk rate was the highest it had been since 2003. So how the heck did Johan post the best ERA of his career?

It certainly wasn’t his BABIP. In fact, Johan’s .287 BABIP from 2008 was exactly in line with his career BABIP of .286. However, he managed to strand over 82% of the runners who reached base. In fact, Johan’s 82.6% LOB% was the highest LOB% of any starting pitcher in baseball. Johan has always had a high LOB% – remember, good pitchers tend to leave a lot of runners on base simply because they have a high chance of retiring every batter they face – however, his LOB% in 2008 was the highest of his career. Over the last three years, his LOB% has been 76.3%, 77.7% and 78.3%, respectively.

What’s perhaps more worrisome is that Johan’s fundamental statistics appear to be declining across the board. Let’s start with his velocity. Back in 2005, Johan’s fastball averaged 92.4 MPH; in 2006 he managed 93.1 MPH. However, last year his fastball velocity fell to 91.7 MPH, and this year it fell to 91.2 MPH. Additionally – perhaps as compensation? – his changeup velocity fell to 80.0 MPH, from 81.9 MPH last year and 81.8 MPH in 2006.

Of course, as guys like Trevor Hoffman can attest to, a pitcher’s fastball and changeup velocities themselves are far less important than the difference between his fastball and his changeup. Therefore, the simple dip in velocity isn’t particularly concerning in and of itself. However, Santana’s control, as well as his ability to induce swings-and-misses, both appear to be in decline as well.

Johan has thrown a higher percentage of balls every year for four consecutive years, starting in 2005. That year, 30.0% of his pitches were out of the strike zone, in 2006 he missed with 31.5% of his pitches, in 2007 32.1% of his pitches were balls, this year that number was 33.2%. Of even more concern is his drop in swinging strikes. From 2004 through 2007, Santana induced swings and misses on between 13.2% and 14.9% of his pitches. However, in 2008, batters swung and missed at only 11.3% of his pitches. 11.3% is still a very good number, but it is a distinct drop from his previous levels.

Taken individually, each of these factors is not terribly concerning, and could suggest a one-year fluke rather than diminished skills. However, taken as a set, these signs are concerning. Don’t get me wrong: Johan is still a very good pitcher; however, his 2.53 ERA in 2008 didn’t reflect his actual pitching.

In 2008, Johan’s FIP was 3.51. His regressed tRA, or tRA*, was 4.16, which is the equivalent of a 3.76 ERA. Johan’s true ERA level in 2008 was probably somewhere between these numbers, and unless he shows that the things I’ve listed above were one-year flukes, Johan could see his ERA rise a full run – or more – in 2009. That would still make him a good pitcher, especially considering he still should strike out approximately eight batters per nine innings, but it also means that Johan is almost certainly going to be drastically overvalued on draft day. Let someone else pay top dollar for a guy who’s no longer worth the money.