Brave new Vazquez

Javier Vazquez has been a perpetual disappointment.

As Eric Seidman (and many others) has covered, Vazquez’s controllable skills have never quite equated to the run prevention that many analysts believe he is capable of. 2009 begins a new chapter, as Vazquez will be a member of the Atlanta Braves.

In 2008, Vazquez posted a 4.67 ERA, along with a 200/61 K/BB ratio in 208 innings. The move away from US Cellular Field and to the National League should benefit him, and he’s due for some regression to the mean as well.

Vazquez allowed a .328 BABIP in 2008. He’s consistently allowed higher-than-usual BABIPs, but last year was even higher – his career BABIP is .310. Additionally, he stranded only 68% of the runners who reached base, lower than his career mark of ~70%. Vazquez’s stuff appears unchanged from years past, and his velocity is the same as it ever was.

In the National League, Vazquez could see his already-high strikeout rate rise even more, thanks to inferior NL hitters and getting to face the pitcher’s spot three times per game. Vazquez will also benefit from being out of US Cellular Field, where it was very easy to hit home runs. Vazquez has allowed slightly more fly balls than ground balls throughout his career, and should benefit from this change of scenery. Furthermore, the Braves are likely to have a solid defense behind him, which should help his BABIP even more. They are also likely to be a much better team than they were in 2008, helping Vazquez’s win total.

By this point, it would be silly to say that Vazquez has been consistently unlucky throughout his career, even though his ERA is almost always higher than his FIP. However, we should also note that Vazquez has pitched in poor circumstances for several years in a row – he’s pitched in hitters’ parks in Chicago and Arizona, he struggled in the limelight of New York, and he’s rarely ever played in front of a good defense during his career. He played for a manager in Chicago who called him out in the media and questioned his dedication. While it may be unlikely that Vazquez has indeed been the victim of consistently bad luck, we musn’t overlook the possibility entirely.

In 2009, Vazquez is probably going to post similar stats as he has throughout his entire career. But there’s a chance that Vazquez finally makes good on his immense potential, thanks to pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment for the first time in six years. He will rack up the strikeouts regardless, and regression to the mean should help lower his ERA. Vazquez has been incredibly durable and should be an excellent value in 2009 – let others undervalue him thanks to his artificially high ERA in 2008.