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Pitcher Spotlight: The Crack In Clayton Kershaw’s Armor

Wednesday night featured a Clayton Kershaw that we didn’t know. An imposter, a fraud who gave us a six-walk outing so rare that we hadn’t seen one from the #1 Starting Pitcher since 2012. So long ago that it was a time where Matt Harrison had fantasy relevance. So ridiculous that we have to have a talk.

There is something wrong with Clayton Kershaw.

It’s not a novel idea. Kershaw’s 3.48 ERA was uncharacteristic during his September return from the DL last season – a seven-game stretch concluding with six straight games allowing a longball. And with the likes of Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale all knocking on his door to claim the title of “Best Pitcher On The Planet” there was bound to be plenty more scrutiny.

But while the arguments before eventually ended with “yeah, but it’s Kershaw, he hasn’t shown any real sides of fading and he’s done it for so long,” we finally have an explanation for his struggles. No, it’s not his back problems (while it may be the very root, it’s too simple of an answer and is far from effective rhetoric), it’s his fastball. More specifically, his fastball command.
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Waiver Wire Week 4: 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – There is a little more under the hood discrediting Minor’s start to 2018 than I would like, though I still believe Minor will improve as we march further into the season – remember, he hadn’t started a game since 2014 prior to this year. Armed with four solid pitches in his arsenal, Minor sports an impressive 11.9% overall whiff rate and a digestible 7.0% walk rate to his name. His a slider that gets strikes on both sides of the plate, a fastball that hints a 10% whiff rate and hits the zone nearly 60% of the time, and he leans on an effective changeup/curveball combination that takes different roles each outing. The tools are there, it’s just a matter of time before he wields them properly.

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Pitcher Spotlight: J.A. Happ, Strikeout King

The first few weeks of the season often produce entertaining statistical extremes. Wild ERAs, over-the-top “on pace” numbers, and inflated ratios that give us a sensible chuckle as we collectively understand the lack of truth they hold.

Often among these novelties are the early league-wide leaderboards. I elected to pull up the 2018 strikeout leaders and here is what you’ll see:
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Waiver Wire Week 3: 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Andrew Triggs (Oakland Athletics) – Did you realize that Triggs hold a 25.8% strikeout rate? What about a 58.1% groundball rate and 25.6% soft contact? How about his 3.32 SIERA? Okay, this is a really poor style of telling you information, but it does illuminate how quietly Triggs is performing out of the gate in Oakland. Sure, his 9.1% walk rate and 9.4% whiff rate are questionable, but you’re going to have warts and I’d gladly chase his batted ball profile mixed with strikeout upside.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – Minor is back again, despite getting roughed up by the Astros last week. It’s hard for me to discredit him plenty after facing one of the toughest offenses in the league, while Seattle and Oakland are next in line. Given enough time, I can see Minor getting more comfortable with his repertoire as he features higher velocity than his time as a starter back in 2014. My colleague Ian Post wrote a fantastic GIF Breakdown of the stuff he brings to the table, and he’s well worth the investment off the wire.

Trevor Cahill (Oakland Athletics) – Cahill may not actually make this list if I made it tomorrow as more players become aware of his studly shutout seven innings with eight strikeouts against the ChiSox Tuesday night. I can see owners repeating his name wondering why they recognize it only to think “hey, wasn’t he really good for a moment last year?” That was a stretch of seven starts to begin 2017 with a 3.27 ERA, 29.5% K rate, and 1.21 WHIP. While you shouldn’t be expecting a replication moving forward, he has the ability to miss bats with his curveball while keeping batters off balance with a lively two-seamer and solid changeup. There’s value to be had here.

Nick Tropeano (Los Angeles Angels) – He missed the entirety of 2017 with TJS after being an intriguing sleeper option after producing a 23.0% K rate and 12.5% whiff rate across 68.1 IP in 2016. His breaking ball (Slider? Curveball?) was the catalyst with a fantastic 24%+ whiff rate in 2016, and with his first start back against the Royals, that number exceeded 20% again, leading to a stellar 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks line. This is far from what to expect and he’s a massive risk tomorrow against the Red Sox, though keep an eye on him. This could turn from a streaming option to a back-end starter quickly.

Vincent Velasquez (Philadelphia Phillies) – I’m actually a little surprised to see Velasquez as an option in the heavy majority of leagues, even not as a big fan myself. Without the strong secondary pitches, Velasquez is sure to have his valleys, but with one of the better fastballs around, his peaks can be massive. His last two starts have combined for 13 strikeouts, two walks, and two earned runs in 12.2 IP – not a sample to get behind, but more of an expression of a ceiling to chase. Don’t start him against strong offenses, feast on the average and below average, and this will work out well.

Luiz Gohara (Atlanta Braves) – Stashes aren’t the most popular of moves in fantasy, but Gohara looks ready to be an arm that will help your team by the middle of May. He had a rehab start on Tuesday and while it wasn’t impressive, given another few weeks, he could start producing results at the big level. He comes with an overpowering fastball and a slider that earned a 24.3% whiff rate across 140 thrown in 2017 – and he didn’t have the best command of it! – suggesting that he can be successful even if he doesn’t take the next step with his changeup. It’s only a matter of time before he gets picked up in your league, you may want to consider it now.

Jimmy Nelson (Milwaukee Brewers) – With Gohara, there’s Nelson, another productive stash as he should help your team through the second half of the season. It’s an easier stash given his DL eligibility, though his return will be later in the year – think June/early July – and it’s still hazy as to how productive he will be. Yes, Nelson went on a tear to complete his 2017 season, though returning from a torn labrum may hold him back from repeating his 2017 breakout. Nevertheless, the risk is worth the gamble if you have room for another on your squad.

Chris Stratton (San Francisco Giants) – It’s a familiar list last from last week, with over half the names returning as they made a home on the wire. Stratton’s outlook hasn’t changed, still acting a possible streaming option with a glimmer of hope to become a sturdy arm if his curveball gets a larger spotlight. His slider has potential as well, and monitor its consistency moving forward, while his heater is good enough to set up his secondary pitches. Don’t anticipate greatness but he should be in consideration for a roster spot.

Andrew Heaney (Los Angeles Angels) – Like Tropeano, Heaney returned for the Angels this week, though his road has been a little rockier with just six starts since the end of 2015. He profiles to be an innings eater, though he shocked with seven strikeouts to his name in his 2018 debut. His curveball has earned whiffs every step of the way – 23.3% career whiff rate – while he has featured great fastball command in the past. There may be some growing pains here as Heaney finds a rhythm, but there is upside to be had that could label him a Top 60 starter.

Daniel Mengden (Oakland Athletics) – I don’t see Mengden becoming a staple of staff. At the same time, he’s known to go on stretches where his fastball command is on point and he’s able to throw his curveball in the zone for strikes. Now could be that time as he’s fresh off a fantastic 8.0 IP 1 ER outing against the White Sox. At 3% ownership, Mengden could be a sneaky play in deeper leagues in the short term.


Pitcher Spotlight: Oh Right, Tyson Ross Exists

Tyson Ross has his third start of the season tonight against the San Francisco Giants and given his 3.1% ownership rate in ESPN leagues, it doesn’t look like many of you care.

I think you should care.

This article won’t be a declaration of the golden days returning. That would be a foolish hyperbole after Ross has only taken the ball twice in 2018 and is still gathering his bearings from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome that took him out of the game for 16 months. Not to mention that his 5.25 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate thus far don’t scream “fixed.”

You can smell a catch. Why would I waste my time on this if there wasn’t something interesting? Something that makes me say “wait a second” or “there might be something here.” It’s not as transparent as other starters have been in the past, but let me show you what I’ve seen and I think you’ll understand what we’re all doing here.

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Waiver Wire Week 2: 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – I get the feeling Minor needs just one more outing before he’s wildly owned. He’s sporting a 2.53 ERA with a 29.3% K rate thus far, supported by a 3.38 FIP and 12.9% whiff rate. He’s locating his slider well on both sides of the plate, trusting his changeup plenty as both a strike-getter and finisher, while he’s being careful with his fastball to prevent the longball (5.6% HR/FB rate thus far). I can even see Minor improving as he gets more innings as a starter, since 2018 marks the first year he’s been handed the role since the 2014 season. April is all about getting on the right trains early, and Minor could be leaving the station soon.

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Pitcher Spotlight: What To Do With Tyler Mahle

We have these arms every year. The pitchers surprising us in the first week of the season who we maybe heard once or twice among the sea of information during the preseason but never really considered as a possible candidate for our opening day rosters. Who is this guy? Is he worth the add? Can he do this again? What do I do?!

Tyler Mahle is just that for plenty of owners after dazzling with a 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 7 Ks outing on Monday afternoon, even becoming an add in some 12-team leagues. It’s not easy to dominate a Cubs lineup, even if they set a record for team strikeouts over the opening weekend, and with Mahle becoming an intriguing enigma, I wanted to take a closer look.

Here’s what I saw from Tyler Mahle in his 2018 debut:

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Waiver Wire Week 1.5: 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s a weird first week of Fantasy Baseball, and there are already plenty of intriguing choices on your wire. Let’s highlight my ten favorites.

Kyle Gibson (Minnesota Twins) – It still feels a little weird endorsing Gibson, but after a solid eight-game stretch to close out the 2017 season, Gibson continued his fantastic swing-and-miss ways, earning 16 whiffs in his start weekend start against the Orioles. While we should note the free-swinging the Baltimore lineup, inducing not a single hit paired with missing bats should dictate a pickup in the short term.

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Waiver Wire: Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

It’s the opening weekend of Fantasy Baseball, but that doesn’t mean your waiver wire isn’t already a source of help.

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Jake Junis (Kansas City Royals) – Junis was an intriguing option last season, armed with one of the better sliders you’ll see from a player many barely know. His biggest weakness was lack of depth in his repertoire, though reports from spring training are a new knuckle-curve that he’s trusting as he enters the season. If it can be a consistent strike offering, this addition to his arsenal mixed with his fastball and slider should set the stage for a strong arm at the end of your rotation.

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Pitcher Spotlight: The Noah Syndergaard Flaw We’re All Ignoring

Today I’ll be talking about the holy one, the pitcher with arguably the filthiest repertoire, the most dominating stuff, the man who should win every single at-bat.

And I’m going tell you why that probably isn’t going to happen. At least not yet.

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