Waiver Wire Week 4: 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider Under 15% Owned

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – There is a little more under the hood discrediting Minor’s start to 2018 than I would like, though I still believe Minor will improve as we march further into the season – remember, he hadn’t started a game since 2014 prior to this year. Armed with four solid pitches in his arsenal, Minor sports an impressive 11.9% overall whiff rate and a digestible 7.0% walk rate to his name. His a slider that gets strikes on both sides of the plate, a fastball that hints a 10% whiff rate and hits the zone nearly 60% of the time, and he leans on an effective changeup/curveball combination that takes different roles each outing. The tools are there, it’s just a matter of time before he wields them properly.

Luiz Gohara (Atlanta Braves) – It’s another week of this article and another week closer to seeing Gohara make his 2018 debut. The current estimate is around May 8th as he’s slated for two more rehab starts, the final coming on May 2nd. Gohara presents tantalizing upside with a fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s, a slider that earned well over 20% whiffs in 2017’s September callup, and a developing changeup that can be a great complement to his heater. He should fit well as a DL stash – I prefer it over Nelson for now – but if he acts like a roster stash, know your league and don’t wait too long before picking him up off the wire.

Jimmy Nelson (Milwaukee Brewers) – Nelson returns again as a decent stash option for those looking toward the future to help their teams in the second half. There is still concern about how much he will actually help when he does pitch again, though his final 24 start run of 3.13 ERA with a 29.2% K rate and 6.3% walk rate should be enough upside to chase. This may not be the play that’s perfect for you and if you need more help in the immediate future, consider other options here.

Trevor Cahill (Oakland Athletics) – Before he returned from the DL, we were wondering if the strikeouts would return. After two starts, Cahill is already sporting a magnificent 30.4% strikeout rate, fueled by a 15.8% whiff rate. His 1.08 WHIP and 2.25 ERA are sure to regress, though a 3.60 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP is well attainable, especially with a strikeout rate comfortably north of 20%. The one drawback is his next start slated for the Astros, though his outing against the Orioles should return dividends.

Tyler Mahle (Cincinnati Reds) – Mahle is far from the most consistent arm, but if you’re searching upside, I can’t neglect his ability to excel when his fastball command is on point. He went six innings of no-hit ball and 11 strikeouts Tuesday evening against the Braves, featuring fastballs all around the zone, confounding Atlanta bats. There will be clunkers in the future, but it will also come with moments of bliss that question how he was ever on the wire in the first place.

Andrew Triggs (Oakland Athletics) – After writing this piece last week, Triggs shortly thereafter returned a massive clunker for those investing in the sidewinder. That is going to happen to Triggs – it’s going to happen to every arm here. However, those that kept the faith in Triggs were granted a lovely six-inning performance against the Rangers, featuring six strikeouts and just 1 ER. With the Mariners and Orioles ahead, I’d like to roll with Triggs again, banking on his fastball zooming in and out of the zone and sprinkling in changeups under the zone and curveballs/sliders sweeping into lefties and repelling right-handers’ bats.

Daniel Mengden (Oakland Athletics) – Mengden is known to go through phases of success, though it’s possible he’s found himself a plateau. The catalyst is a curveball that he can throw for strikes, raising its zone rate from 32% to 44% this season, while also earning whiffs at an impressive 17.5% mark. This creates more flexibility for his heater, a pitch he had to “give in” with often in 2017 when his secondary pitches failed to consistently fall over the plate. After a season of 20% O-Swing on four-seamers, Mengden’s heater has returned a startling 38.8% mark thus far, showcasing a success of his current approach. It’s been a small sample and relies heavily on the command of his premier breaking ball and heater, but there’s a chance this could stick.

Nick Tropeano (Los Angeles Angels) – So Tropeano is pitching as I write this (six Ks through three frames!), but regardless of his performance (he shouldn’t be started against the Astros) I’d be picking him up if you need SP help. Tropeano’s curveball is known to miss bats, making his strikeout-per-inning rate very believable. I see 2016 Jerad Eickhoff here, with a 1.20 WHIP and plenty of quality starts paired with strikeout upside well within Tropeano’s reach. He’s not primed for a major jump in SP rankings, while he should be a sturdy arm to start against all save for the strongest of offenses.

Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners) – You may not realize that Gonzales holds a 27.6% strikeout rate and 4.1% through 22.2 IP, or that his 4.37 ERA comes with a 2.60 FIP and 2.79 SIERA. Those numbers alone aren’t enough to convince me of longterm success for Gonzales (39.4% hard-hit rate and a sub 10% whiff rate), but they definitely make me consider him when scouring the wire. His new cutter has been effective thus far, adding a valuable pitch he can confidently throw for strikes in any count while also returning a massive 53.6% O-Swing thus far. There may be something to this, even if he won’t sustain a 25%+ strikeout rate.

Matt Boyd (Detroit Tigers) – Do I believe in Matt Boyd? Not particularly. His .132 BABIP and 98.2% LOB paired with a minuscule 5.9% HR/FB rate don’t suggest that his 1.40 ERA will be low for long. At the same time, he’s holding a near 11% whiff rate and his success can be correlated with a massive uptick in slider usage – a breaking ball that hits the zone nearly half the time and holds just a .077 BAA thus far. He’s sacrificed velocity on it while gaining 3 inches of drop and there’s a chance this tweak returns a serviceable backend starter moving forward.