Yesterday, I analyzed Ketel Marte’s power breakout, identifying what has driven his 20 home run total. Today, we’re going to flip to the sad side of 2019 performance. Jose Ramirez has been one of the season’s biggest busts, after he delivered both elite fantasy and real baseball production over the past two years. Now, nearly half way through the season, he’s sitting with just four dingers. He’s managed to swipe 16 bases, despite a sub-.300 OBP, though, so at least us fantasy owners are getting something for our hefty investment. Let’s find out what happened here.

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If you had told me during spring training that Ketel Marte would enjoy a fantasy breakout during his age 25 season, I would have guessed it would include something like 15 dingers and 30 steals. Fast forward two and a half months, and Marte is indeed enjoying that fantasy breakout, but the shape of that breakout is rather shocking. As I type this, Marte ranks tied for seventh in baseball in homers with 20. TWENTY! He’s now on pace for about 44 homers. Heading into the season, he had only hit 22 throughout his entire career, and that came over 1,402 at-bats! His HR/FB rate stood at a measly 6.7%. Measly no longer describes Marte’s power.

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On Tuesday, I published the results of my research calculating correlations for various pitching metrics as pitchers transition from the minors to the Majors. Today, we’ll look at the hitters. Just like for pitchers making the jump from the minors to the Majors, hitter correlations are very similar to what Matt Klaassen calculated for MLB batters year-over-year. That may be a surprise, but it does mostly suggest that there’s not as much development from the minors to the Majors as we might expect. A baseball player is who he is, for the most part, on average. Now let’s get to the details.

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It’s deep league wire time and during my treasure hunt, I happen to uncover a pair of (potential) gems.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed 11 starting pitchers significantly outperforming their SIERA marks, suggesting potentially major impending regression. One such pitcher on the list, ranking second in SIERA outperformance, was Mike Soroka. Through 10 starts and 65.1 innings, Soroka has allowed an amazing microscopic HR/FB rate of just 2.9%, which easily leads all qualified pitchers in baseball.

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Last Thursday, I identified and discussed six starting pitchers worth targeting in trade given their dramatic SIERA underperformance. Today, let’s discuss the pitchers that SIERA is screaming SELL SELL SELL, if SIERA was human. These are the guys whose ERA marks are significantly outperforming their SIERA marks.

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When the calendar flips to June, it typically signifies the time to deeply evaluate my team, strengths, and weaknesses, and identify trade targets and players I should seek to trade. So let’s discuss six starting pitchers whose SIERA marks are significantly below their actual ERA marks, suggesting vastly improved results over the rest of the season…if they maintain their current skills. This last piece is important as SIERA isn’t a projection. Rather, it’s backwards looking at does a far superior job of evaluating a pitcher’s skill than ERA. You could surely use it as a projection, as it does a much better job than ERA, but that’s now what it’s designed for.

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It’s another exciting edition of the deep league waiver wire!

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It’s impossible to resist an opportunity for a cheesy pun. If you haven’t followed the Orioles or prefer researching Major Leaguers to minor leaguers, you are completely forgiven for not realizing this article is all about the Orioles’ latest call-up, catcher Chance Sisco. Though it feels like he has floated around prospect lists forever, Sisco is still just 24 years old and has just 206 MLB plate appearances to his name. Clearly, that’s way too small a sample to give up on him, which would be true of any player, especially a top prospect.

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In an effort to alleviate their outfield/first base/DH logjam and perhaps begin the dumping process, the Mariners traded Jay Bruce to the Phillies, marking his return to the East Coast where he spent parts or all of the previous three seasons. He’s expected to act as the strong side of a left field platoon, with Andrew McCutchen shifting to center field. Let’s check the park factors to determine how the park switch might affect Bruce’s offense.

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