It’s hard to publish a deep league waiver wire post right before the trade deadline, because so much can change in mere hours. But here we go anyway. The theme here is new opportunities for hitters on bad teams.
Looks like we’ll have to wait a little while longer until the real exciting blockbuster trades are made. In the meantime, a pair of lower impact moves were completed involving starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, the park factors suggest both are going to be hurt by their new home digs. Let’s get to the comparisons.
In our first big trade of the non-waiver trade deadline season, Marcus Stroman joins the New York Mets, at which point Mets fans know all too well that he’ll turn into a pumpkin and never be effective again until he’s traded away. In all seriousness the knee-jerk reaction is that this move is fantastic for his fantasy value, given a more pitcher friendly venue and a switch to the National League. Let’s dive into the park factors to get more clarity on the change in home parks.
We think we know that pitcher skills change more frequently than hitter skills do, so it pays to monitor pitchers whose skills have spiked over a relatively small sample, like the past 30 days. That’s typically around five starts and a significant change in skills could signal a new talent level. Since the pitcher’s overall season line still includes a lot of the previous skills baked in, fantasy owners might not realize the transformation that has been occurring. So let’s take a look at some of the surprise names that appear near the top of the leaderboard.
Welcome to the final edition of the deep league waiver wire before next week’s non-waiver trade deadline!
On Monday and Tuesday, I identified and discussed a slew of hitters who were underperforming or overperforming their xBABIP marks, a backwards-looking metric I developed to try cutting through the noise to determine what a hitter’s BABIP should be given various underlying skills I deemed important. One of those skills was speed. Obviously, a faster hitter has a better chance to beat out an infield grounder for a hit than a slower batter. The problem is, how do I know how fast a hitter is once he makes contact and exits the box en route to first base?
Welcome to the first post-all star break edition of the deep league waiver wire! I hope you’re as enthused as I to follow the remaining two and a half months of baseball…perhaps, with these two hitters added to your roster.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed 12 hitters whose xBABIP marks were significantly higher than their actual marks, suggesting potential dramatic upside for the rest of the season…assuming they maintained those underlying skills. Now let’s check in on the opposite group of hitters — those whose BABIPs have significantly exceeded their xBABIP marks, suggesting the potential for serious downside the rest of the way if they are unable to improve those underlying skills.
It’s sad that we’re already more than halfway through the season, so it’s hard to believe that our fantasy teams could make dramatic moves in the ratio categories. But don’t give up hope! If you have a roster full of BABIP underperformers, there’s still potential to gain a bunch of points in batting average. So let’s identify and discuss the hitters who are most underperforming their xBABIP marks. Naturally, xBABIP isn’t perfect, which is why I stick to the players on the bookends, those underperforming and outperforming the most.
While Statcast’s xwOBA is not a predictive metric, it’s still useful in validating historical results. Think of xwOBA in the same way you would think of pitcher SIERA — while SIERA isn’t meant to predict future ERA, it does a better job of it than ERA itself, making it backward-looking. So let’s dive into the hitters whose xwOBA marks are significantly higher than their actual wOBA marks.
