Let’s dive into another Pod Projection! As a reminder, the 2020 forecasts are available now and include over 500 player lines. The projections follow the same process that resulted in the most accurate non-aggregate system of 2019 as calculated by FantasyPros.
Let’s dive into another Pod Projection! As a reminder, the 2020 forecasts are available now and include over 500 player lines. The projections follow the same process that resulted in the most accurate non-aggregate system of 2019 as calculated by FantasyPros.
Last Thursday, I identified and discussed six starting pitchers that my Pod Projections forecasted a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Now let’s turn to the starting pitchers my projections are forecasting a significantly worse ERA than Steamer. It is important to note that I’m clearly projecting a better run environment than Steamer, so there are far fewer pitchers I’m projecting a worse ERA for.
Today I continue my series comparing my Pod Projections with Steamer to uncover guys with categorical upside and downside. Previously, I was focused on hitters. I now turn my attention to starting pitchers and ERA.
Here we go again! Every season there’s at least one mega-hyped player expected to make his much anticipated debut during the year, and his market price reflects the unbelievable excitement. The last time we did this, it was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who I specifically called out at the end of February last year for being insanely priced. Now, it’s White Sox outfielder and seventh overall ranked prospect Luis Robert.
Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer in the stolen base category and identified and discussed five hitters with upside. Today, I’ll flip to the hitters I have forecasted for a lower rate of stolen bases than Steamer. I’ll stick to only including players projected for a reasonable number of plate appearances.
Last week, I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer and calculated which hitters I was more bullish on and more bearish on for home runs. Today, I’ll do the same for stolen bases. Similarly to homers, I’m going to calculate a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolate that projection over 650 plate appearances so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in.
Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projected home runs per 600 at-bats to Steamer’s forecast to identify and discuss a slew of hitters my projections are far more bullish on in the dinger department. Today, I’ll flip to the opposite end, those hitters who Pod forecasts for fewer home runs than Steamer, given 600 at-bats.
Every year, I pit my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer. Many of these players figure to be part-timers, so consider them sleepers in deeper leagues.
The Pod Projection process sharing continues! The 2020 forecasts are now available and include over 500 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
