Besides earning more playing time, there are only three skills-based methods to hitting more home runs — striking out less frequently, which means more balls put into play, hitting more fly balls, which means more chances for a batted ball to jump over the wall, and hitting a higher rate of those fly balls over the wall, which is represented by HR/FB rate. Of the three, the middle skill of hitting more fly balls is possibly the ideal skill you want to see from your early season home run surge. That’s because batted ball type distribution is more of an approach or decision by the hitter rather than an actual improvement in talent. We need a much larger sample to determine if talent has changed, but a hitter could seemingly wake up one day and decide he wants to uppercut the ball more in an effort to hit for more power. You can’t decide to strike out less or hit more fly balls over the well, though I’m sure all hitters wish they could!

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Yesterday, I discussed a whole bunch of hitting metrics and who currently leads and lags the league. Things be crazy this early in a season. I didn’t quite finish diving into all the metrics I wanted to, so today I’ll check in on the batted ball type related metrics. Let’s see who is part of the weird and wonderful today.

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What I love about the first couple of weeks in the baseball season is all the crazy rates players are posting. In small samples, the variance in all metrics is much wider than in a larger sample. Obviously, the larger the sample, the more a player’s performance will revert toward his true talent level. In only around 10 games, anything goes! So for fun, let’s take a gander at some of the weird and wonderful rates that have been posted by hitters so far.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed a selection of hitters who have gained the most flyball/line drive exit velocity this year versus last. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters on the flip side — those that have lost the most EV. What follows is a list of hitters who have lost at least six miles per hour of FB/LD EV. Small sample caveats apply.

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It’s still super early, with only some teams playing as many as 10 games. And yet, those 10 games already represent 16.7% of the season! CRAZY. So yes, it’s still super early to evaluate most performances, but by the time we have enough of a sample to make better judgments, the season will have ended. So like I discussed last week with pitcher fastball velocity, let’s look at another underlying skill metric that stabilizes more quickly than a results-based metric — exit velocity. I like barrels more, but with the tiny samples so far, one more or less barrel will make a significant difference in barrel rate, so it’s simply too soon. So we’ll stick with average fly ball/line drive exit velocity, as it’s pretty straightforward — all else being equal, the faster the bat meets the ball, the further the ball will travel.

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On Tuesday, I shared and discussed the starting pitchers that have suffered the largest declines in their fastball velocity compared with 2019. A significant drop in fastball velocity could be a warning sign of injury, and already one decliner, Reynaldo Lopez, has hit the IL. Today, I’m going to update the list again with starters who have pitched since my last post. Once again, these are the starters whose “Pitch Type” fastball velocity has decreased by at least one mile per hour versus last year.

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On Monday, I shared and discussed the 10 starting pitchers that have increased their fastball velocity the most compared with 2019. Finding the early velocity surgers is one of the best ways to identify the season’s breakouts, as velocity has a high correlation with strikeout rate, so a higher velocity should result in more strikeouts, which should reduce ERA. Since it’s so important, I’m going to update the list again with starters who have pitched since then. Once again, these are the starters whose “Pitch Type” fastball velocity has increased at least one mile per hour versus last year.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed starting pitchers who have experienced at least a one mile per hour jump in fastball velocity. Sure, it’s just one start, but velocity stabilizes much faster than any result or skill-based stat. Today, I’ll look at the flip side – those pitchers who have suffered a velocity decline versus last year. Note that my level of bullishness is higher for the velocity gainers than the level of bearishness for velocity decliners (assuming the same amount of gain and decline if comparing two pitchers). You can’t really fake a velocity jump, but there are myriad reasons why a pitcher’s velocity was down in his first start.

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It’s super early, so there’s not a whole lot to analyze at this point, aside from injuries and playing time. However, there is something that stabilizes very quickly, and that’s fastball velocity. It also carries great significance, as fastball velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate. All else being equal, a higher strikeout rate should result in a lower ERA and WHIP. So after one start, whose fastball velocity has spiked by at least one mile per hour versus 2019? I used the “Pitch Type” velocities, rather than “Pitch Info Pitch Type”, because the latter section takes a full day to update and therefore doesn’t have the velocities from Saturday’s games. I also only compared 2020 velocity to velocity during games started in 2019, so if a starter made any relief appearances, those wouldn’t be counted as part of 2019 velocity.

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Finally, the season is about to begin! Typically, my bold predictions comprise 10 crystal ball forecasts. However, I ended up coming up with just six and am not in the mood to try to come up with four more. I simply can’t boldly predict things when the season sample is small, and frankly, anything could happen (Dee Gordon – 10 home runs?!). They all happen to be positive predictions as well, even though I usually like throwing in a couple of negatives. Oh well, you get three hitter and three pitcher boldies. So let’s do this…

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